2010 United States Senate election in Nevada
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The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth and final term, defeating Republican challenger Sharron Angle.[1]
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November 2, 2010
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  Reid: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Angle: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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In its analysis of Reid's victory over Angle, Politico reported that the Reid campaign had placed advertisements opposing Angle's main primary opponent, Sue Lowden. The purpose of the ads was to enhance the "polarizing" Angle's chances of winning the Republican nomination.[2]
Despite Angle leading by three points in the polls the days leading up to the election, Reid won by 5.74%, even defeating Angle in her own county, Washoe County. Reid also secured huge numbers out of the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, which covers the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area. Angle ran for this seat again in 2016 and lost the Republican primary.
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.
Candidates
Nominee
- Harry Reid, incumbent U.S. Senator
Defeated in primary
- Alex Miller
- Eduardo Hamilton
- Carlo Poliak, trash collector and perennial candidate[3]
Declined
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Harry Reid | Barbara Buckley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mellman Group (D)[4] | June 17–29, 2008 | 51% | 20% |
Results
Reid
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Miller
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Reid (incumbent) | 87,401 | 75.3 | |
| None of These Candidates | 12,341 | 10.6 | ||
| Democratic | Alex Miller | 9,717 | 8.4 | |
| Democratic | Eduardo Hamilton | 4,645 | 4.0 | |
| Democratic | Carlo Poliak | 1,938 | 1.7 | |
| Total votes | 116,042 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.
Candidates
Nominee
- Sharron Angle, former state assembly member and candidate for the 2nd district in 2006[7]
Defeated in primary
- John Chachas, businessman[8]
- Chad Christensen, state assemblyman[9]
- Greg Dagani, former member of the Nevada Board of Education[10]
- Chuck Flume, businessman[11]
- Sue Lowden, former state senator[8]
- Mark Noonan, Navy veteran[12]
- Bill Parson, Marine veteran and businessman[13]
- Danny Tarkanian, real estate owner[8]
Withdrawn
- Mark Amodei, state senator[8]
- Chuck Kozak, attorney[14] dropped out of race
- Robin L. Titus, physician[15] dropped out of race
- Mike Wiley, conservative activist[16] dropped out of race
Declined
- Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Representative[17]
- Brian Krolicki, Lieutenant Governor of Nevada[18]
- Jon Porter, former U.S. Representative[19]
Endorsements
Sharron Angle
- State officials
Organizations
- Can-Do Conservatives of America (disabled advocacy group)[21]
- Change the Congress in 2010 PAC[22]
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund[23]
- Club for Growth[24]
- Declaration Alliance PAC[25]
- Government is not God PAC[26]
- Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund[27]
- Life & Liberty PAC[28]
- Minuteman PAC (Chris Simcox)[28]
- Nevada Concerned Citizens[28]
- Nevada Homeschool Network[29]
- Nevada Republican Assembly[30]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[31]
- Tea Party Express[32]
- Veterans in Politics[33]
- Western Representation PAC[34]
- Individuals
- Pat Boone[35]
- Leon Catlett, Las Vegas talk show host[36]
- Mark Levin[37]
- Joe the Plumber[38]
- Phyllis Schlafly, Eagle Forum[39]
Sue Lowden
- U.S. Senators
- Jon Kyl, Senate Minority Whip
- Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator
- State officials
- Robert List, former Governor of Nevada[40]
Organizations
- Susan B. Anthony List, pro-life organization[41]
- University of Nevada, Las Vegas College Republicans[42]
- Individuals
- Jeri Thompson, political commentator
Danny Tarkanian
- State officials
Organizations
- Armenian National Committee Political Action Committee[44]
- Armenian Council of America Political Action Committee[45]
- Individuals
- Jim Gilchrist, co-founder of the Minuteman Project[46]
- Kim Rhode, two-time Olympic gold medal winner[28]
Debates
- Nevada Primary Senate Candidates Debate, C-SPAN, May 18, 2010
Polling
| Dates administered | Poll source | Tarkanian | Lowden | Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 21, 2009 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[47] | 33% | 14% | 5% |
| October 8, 2009 | Poll[48] | 21% | 23% | 9% |
| December 2009 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[49] | 24% | 25% | 13% |
| January 7, 2010 | [50] | 28% | 26% | 13% |
| February 24, 2010 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[51] | 29% | 47% | 8% |
| April 11, 2010 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[52] | 27% | 45% | 5% |
| April 26–28, 2010 | Research 2000[53] | 28% | 38% | 13% |
| May 13, 2010 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[54] | 22% | 30% | 25% |
| May 28, 2010 | Mason Dixon/LVRJ[54] | 23% | 30% | 29% |
| May 31 – June 2, 2010 | Research 2000[55] | 24% | 25% | 34% |
| June 2, 2010 | Suffolk University[56] | 26% | 24% | 33% |
| June 1–3, 2010 | [57] | 24% | 23% | 32% |
Results
Angle
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Lowden
- 30–40%
Tarkanian
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sharron Angle | 70,452 | 40.1 | |
| Republican | Sue Lowden | 45,890 | 26.1 | |
| Republican | Danny Tarkanian | 40,936 | 23.3 | |
| Republican | John Chachas | 6,926 | 3.9 | |
| Republican | Chad Christensen | 4,806 | 2.7 | |
| None of These Candidates | 3,091 | 1.8 | ||
| Republican | Bill Parson | 1,484 | 0.8 | |
| Republican | Gary Bernstein | 698 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Garn Mabey | 462 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Cecilia Stern | 355 | 0.2 | |
| Republican | Brian Nadell | 235 | 0.1 | |
| Republican | Terry Suominen | 224 | 0.1 | |
| Republican | Gary Marinch | 179 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 175,738 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Harry Reid (D), incumbent U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader
- Sharron Angle (R), former member of the Nevada Assembly
- Scott Ashjian (Tea Party)[58] (campaign site, PVS)
- Tim Fasano (Independent American)[59] (campaign site, PVS)
- Michael Haines (Independent)[60] (campaign site, PVS)
- Jesse Holland (Independent)[60] (campaign site, PVS)
- Jeffrey Reeves (Independent)[61] (campaign site Archived July 31, 2010, at the Wayback Machine, PVS)
- Wil Stand (Independent)[60] (PVS)
Campaign
In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan and Reid for his support of the legislation.[62] Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings had dropped below 50%.[63] A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving.[64]
After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win.[65]
In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans.[66] Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger."[67][68] Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature.[69]
One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare.[70] In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid.[71]
In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration."[72]
On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid.[73][74] Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8.[75]
Endorsements
Harry Reid (D)
Newspapers
Sharron Angle (R)
- State officials
Organizations
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund
- Club for Growth
- Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Tea Party Express
Newspapers
- Individuals
- Pat Boone
- Mark Levin
- Joe the Plumber
- Phyllis Schlafly, Eagle Forum
Debate
Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14.[79] Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle.[80]
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Harry Reid (D) |
Sharron Angle (R) |
Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[81] | December 9, 2009 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 43% | 47% | 7% | 3% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[82] | January 5–7, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 40% | 45% | – | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[83] | January 11, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 40% | 44% | 10% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[84] | February 3, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 40% | 44% | 7% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[85] | March 3, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 38% | 46% | 11% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[86] | March 31, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 40% | 51% | 6% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[84] | April 27, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 40% | 48% | 7% | 4% |
| Research 2000 (Daily Kos)[87] | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 41% | 44% | 9% | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[88] | May 24–26, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 42% | 39% | 9% | 10% |
| Research 2000 (Daily Kos)[89] | May 31 – June 2, 2010 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 42% | 37% | 10% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[90] | June 1–3, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 41% | 44% | 7% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[91] | June 9, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 39% | 50% | 5% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[92] | June 22, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 41% | 48% | 8% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[93] | July 12, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 43% | 46% | 6% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[94][95] | July 12–14, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 44% | 37% | 9% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[96] | July 16–18, 2010 | 630 (RV) | ±3.9% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[84] | July 27, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 4% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[97] | July 28–30, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 43% | 42% | 9% | 6% |
| Ipsos (Reuters)[98][99] | July 30–August 1, 2010 | 462 (LV) | ±4.6% | 48% | 44% | 2% | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[100] | August 9–11, 2010 | 625 (RV) | ±4.0% | 46% | 44% | 5% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[101] | August 16, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 47% | 47% | 5% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[102][103] | August 23–25, 2010 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 44% | 6% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[104] | September 1, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[105][106] | September 7–9, 2010 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 6% |
| Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)[107] | September 11, 2010 | 1,000 (LV) | ±3.0% | 44% | 45% | 8% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[108] | September 13, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 3% |
| Opinion Research (CNN/Time)[109] | September 10–14, 2010 | 789 (LV) | ±3.5% | 41% | 42% | 16% | 1% |
| Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)[110] | September 18, 2010 | 1,000 (LV) | ±3.0% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 4% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[111] | September 20–22, 2010 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | 43% | 43% | 6% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (Las Vegas Sun)[112] | September 21–23, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.4% | 45% | 40% | 8% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[113] | September 28, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 48% | 47% | 4% | 1% |
| Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)[110] | October 2, 2010 | 1,000 (LV) | ±3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% | 0% |
| Magellan Strategies[114] | October 4, 2010 | 1,408 (V) | ±2.6% | 43% | 48% | 5% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[113] | October 5, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 46% | 50% | 2% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[115] | October 7–9, 2010 | 504 (LV) | ±4.4% | 47% | 45% | 7% | 1% |
| Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)[110] | October 9, 2010 | 1,000 (LV) | ±3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% | 0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[113] | October 11, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 48% | 49% | 1% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[116][117] | October 11–12, 2010 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[113] | October 17, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 47% | 50% | 2% | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports[113] | October 25, 2010 | 750 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 49% | 4% | 2% |
| Opinion Research (CNN/Time)[118] | October 20–26, 2010 | 773 (LV) | ±3.5% | 45% | 49% | 5% | 1% |
| Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)[119][120] | October 25–27, 2010 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | 45% | 49% | 3% | 3% |
| Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [121] | October 30, 2010 | 1,000 (LV) | ±3.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% | 0% |
| Public Policy Polling[122] | October 30–31, 2010 | 682 (LV) | ±3.8% | 46% | 47% | 6% | 1% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharron Angle (R) | $27,797,915 | $27,505,917 | $291,999 | $635,737 |
| Harry Reid (D) | $19,185,317 | $22,325,360 | $176,309 | $419,093 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[123] | ||||
Predictions
Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup[124] and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup.[125] A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%.[126] However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions,[127] as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history.[127] On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic.[128] Later, it moved back to tossup. Polls generally had Angle up, and thus Reid seemed like the underdog. Journalist Jon Ralston correctly predicted Reid would win based on early voting numbers and Reid running a strong campaign.[129]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[130] | Tossup | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[131] | Tossup | October 22, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[132] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[133] | Tossup | October 26, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[134] | Tossup | October 26, 2010 |
| New York Times[135] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[135] | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Reid (incumbent) | 362,785 | 50.29 | –10.84 | |
| Republican | Sharron Angle | 321,361 | 44.55 | +9.45 | |
| None of These Candidates | 16,174 | 2.25 | +0.6 | ||
| Tea Party of Nevada | Scott Ashjian | 5,811 | 0.81 | N/a | |
| Independent | Michael L. Haines | 4,261 | 0.59 | N/a | |
| Independent American | Timothy Fasano | 3,185 | 0.44 | N/a | |
| Independent | Jesse Holland | 3,175 | 0.44 | N/a | |
| Independent | Jeffery C. Reeves | 2,510 | 0.35 | N/a | |
| Independent | Wil Stand | 2,119 | 0.29 | N/a | |
| Total votes | 721,381 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Reid | % | Angle | % | Others | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson City | 8,714 | 44.64% | 9,362 | 47.96% | 1,443 | 7.39% |
| Churchill | 2,473 | 27.80% | 5,639 | 63.40% | 783 | 8.80% |
| Clark | 253,617 | 54.41% | 192,516 | 41.30% | 20,030 | 4.30% |
| Douglas | 7,530 | 34.57% | 12,858 | 59.04% | 1,392 | 6.39% |
| Elko | 3,246 | 25.24% | 8,173 | 63.56% | 1,440 | 11.20% |
| Esmeralda | 80 | 20.15% | 268 | 67.51% | 49 | 12.34% |
| Eureka | 137 | 18.05% | 524 | 69.04% | 98 | 12.91% |
| Humboldt | 1,600 | 32.12% | 2,836 | 56.92% | 546 | 10.96% |
| Lander | 487 | 25.60% | 1,201 | 63.14% | 214 | 11.25% |
| Lincoln | 442 | 22.68% | 1,311 | 67.27% | 196 | 10.06% |
| Lyon | 5,659 | 32.39% | 10,473 | 59.95% | 1,339 | 7.66% |
| Mineral | 855 | 44.93% | 822 | 43.19% | 226 | 11.88% |
| Nye | 5,279 | 36.66% | 7,822 | 54.32% | 1,298 | 9.01% |
| Pershing | 597 | 34.39% | 915 | 52.71% | 224 | 12.90% |
| Storey | 843 | 39.50% | 1,124 | 52.67% | 167 | 7.83% |
| Washoe | 70,523 | 49.91% | 63,316 | 44.81% | 7,448 | 5.27% |
| White Pine | 703 | 21.51% | 2,201 | 67.33% | 365 | 11.17% |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Carson City
- Humboldt (largest municipality: Winnemucca)
- Nye (largest municipality: Pahrump)
- Pershing (largest municipality: Lovelock)
- Storey (largest municipality: Virginia City)
- White Pine (largest municipality: Ely)
