2011 Asturian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Asturias
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The 2011 Asturian regional election was held on 22 May 2011 to elect the 8th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
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0.6% 0.1 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 May 2011
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All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias 23 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 987,305 0.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 609,072 (61.7%) 0.1 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Except for the 1995-1999 legislature, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had governed the autonomous community since the first election in 1983. However, in the 2011 election, the Asturias Forum (FAC), a split from the People's Party (PP), won the most seats despite PSOE obtaining more votes. The FAC was established on 19 January 2011 by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, after failing to be selected as PP's candidate. FAC gains came at the expense of the PP and the PSOE, but while PSOE's collapse had been predicted in early opinion polls, the PP had been widely expected to make strong gains before Cascos' split, instead scoring the worst result of its history. The Asturian Bloc (BA) had terminated its coalition with United Left (IU) and the Asturian Greens (LVA) in August 2010 and run separately, failing to win any seats. IU and the Greens maintained their coalition and retained their existing four seats.
Vicente Álvarez Areces, incumbent since 1999, did not seek re-election. As in Asturias it is not allowed for parties to vote against a proposed presidential candidate (instead being forced to either abstain or vote a candidate of their own), in July 2011, the PSOE and PP announced that they would abstain in the investiture voting of Álvarez Cascos, who thus became the new president at the head of a minority administration.[1]
The resulting government, however, was not able to gather legislative support to approve its 2012 regional budget, with both PP and PSOE blocking the vote, resulting in a fresh election being held in March 2012.
Overview
Electoral system
The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2]
Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Asturians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3] The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:
- Central District, comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco.
- Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa.
- Western District, comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza.
Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[4]
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]
Election date
The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the election date for the General Junta on 22 May 2011.[2][4][6]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[2]
Background
On 7 July 2010, the President of Asturias, Vicente Álvarez Areces, announced that he would not seek re-election.[7] Following the announcement, the General Secretary of the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA), PSOE's regional branch, declared that he would seek the nomination to become the presidential candidate.[8] His candidacy, supported by the FSA Executive Committee, was ratified by the PSOE Federal Committee on 23 October 2010.[9]
United Left, coalition partner of the PSOE, decided that their regional General Coordinator, Jesús Sánchez Iglesias, would be its presidential candidate for a second consecutive time. His candidacy was supported by the IU Asturian Presidency in November 2010[10] and ratified by IU's political council in Asturias on 27 November 2010.[11]
The Asturian Bloc ended its coalition with United Left and the Greens in October 2010 and contested the election in a joint electoral list with the Asturian Nationalist Unity (UNA) under the label Bloc for Asturias-UNA: Commitment for Asturias. BA's sole sitting deputy, Rafael Palacios, was their presidential candidate.[12]
Oviedo city councillor Isabel Pérez-Espinosa was selected by the People's Party as its presidential candidate on 29 December 2010.[13] This led to a split within the Asturian PP as former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Álvarez-Cascos had been seeking the nomination. He resigned from the PP and formed the Asturias Forum, running to the election on his own.[14]
Opinion polls
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
URAS PAS |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 61.7 | 29.9 15 |
20.0 10 |
10.3 4 |
0.5 0 |
2.4 0 |
29.7 16 |
0.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] | 10–12 May 2011 | 500 | ? | 33.4 17 |
24.2 11/12 |
9.1 3/4 |
– | – | 25.8 12/14 |
7.6 |
| Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 2][p 3] | 4–11 May 2011 | 408 | ? | 25.4 16 |
15.1 6 |
9.4 3 |
– | – | 42.8 20 |
17.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 4][p 5] | 3–10 May 2011 | ? | ? | 36.3 17 |
28.4 13/14 |
? 5 |
– | – | ? 9/10 |
7.9 |
| Ipsos/La Nueva España[p 6] | 29 Apr–9 May 2011 | 2,800 | 62.0 | 32.1 16/17 |
30.1 15/16 |
10.9 4 |
– | – | 19.7 9 |
2.0 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 7][p 8] | 29 Apr–2 May 2011 | 500 | ? | 31.2 14/16 |
29.8 14/15 |
10.4 4/6 |
– | – | 22.5 10/11 |
1.4 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 9][p 10] | 29 Apr–2 May 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 36.8 18/19 |
20.9 10/11 |
9.2 3/4 |
– | 2.7 0/1 |
25.5 12/13 |
11.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 11][p 12] | 25 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | ? 18 |
24.3 12 |
? 4 |
– | – | 23.7 11 |
? |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 13] | 13–20 Apr 2011 | 400 | ? | 31.1 15 |
23.2 12 |
11.2 5 |
1.3 0 |
– | 26.3 13 |
4.8 |
| CIS[p 14][p 15] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,188 | ? | 35.7 19 |
32.2 16 |
8.2 3 |
– | 1.9 0 |
15.0 7 |
3.5 |
| Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 16][p 17] | 11–16 Apr 2011 | 408 | ? | 24.5 13/15 |
15.3 6/7 |
9.7 4 |
– | – | 43.1 19/21 |
18.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 18] | 11–14 Apr 2011 | 500 | ? | 33.6 17 |
23.1 11/12 |
11.4 4 |
– | – | 24.8 12/13 |
8.8 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 19][p 20] | 4–11 Apr 2011 | 2,200 | ? | 30.1 14/16 |
29.6 14/15 |
9.4 3 |
– | 2.8 1 |
23.8 11/12 |
0.5 |
| Asturbarómetro[p 21] | 4–8 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 23.5 12/14 |
14.5 6/7 |
9.5 4 |
4.7 1 |
– | 42.5 18/20 |
19.0 |
| GAD/COPE[p 22][p 23] | 5–7 Apr 2011 | 400 | ? | 32.0 15 |
26.5 13 |
11.5 5 |
0.9 0 |
– | 25.2 12 |
5.5 |
| Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 24][p 25] | 12–19 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 21.4 | 18.0 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 42.2 | 20.8 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 26] | 3 Jan 2011 | 500 | ? | 27.3 13/15 |
22.5 10 |
8.1 3 |
– | – | 36.5 17/19 |
9.2 |
| ? | 37.2 18/19 |
46.8 23/24 |
7.6 3 |
– | – | – | 9.6 | |||
| NC Report/La Razón[p 27] | 30 Dec–3 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 35.7 18 |
45.2 23 |
? 4 |
– | – | – | 9.5 |
| Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 28][p 29] | 31 Oct 2010 | ? | ?[i] | 41.6 | 37.8 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | – | 3.8 |
| ?[ii] | 35.5 | 47.2 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | – | 11.7 | |||
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 30] | 22–24 May 2010 | 700 | ? | 36.4 18/19 |
46.8 23/24 |
8.4 3 |
– | – | – | 10.4 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 31] | 8–15 Mar 2010 | 866 | ? | 40.2 20/21 |
43.3 21/22 |
7.7 3 |
– | 2.9 0 |
– | 3.1 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 44.1 | 44.1 22 |
42.0 20 |
5.6 2 |
– | 4.1 1 |
– | 2.1 |
| 2008 general election | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 71.3 | 46.9 22 |
41.6 20 |
7.2 3 |
– | 1.4 0 |
– | 5.3 |
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 61.6 | 42.0 21 |
41.5 20 |
9.7 4 |
2.2 0 |
– | – | 0.5 |
| ||||||||||
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 179,619 | 29.92 | −12.12 | 15 | −6 | |
| Forum of Citizens (FAC) | 178,031 | 29.66 | New | 16 | +16 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 119,767 | 19.95 | −21.55 | 10 | −10 | |
| United Left of Asturias–The Greens (IU–LV) | 61,703 | 10.28 | +0.59 | 4 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 14,640 | 2.44 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Independents of Asturias (IDEAS) | 6,380 | 1.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Bloc for Asturias–Asturian Nationalist Unity: Commitment for Asturias (BA–UNA) | 6,191 | 1.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Left Front (FDLI) | 4,598 | 0.77 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) | 3,626 | 0.60 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Asturian Renewal Union–Asturianist Party (URAS–PAS) | 2,953 | 0.49 | −1.73 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 1,950 | 0.32 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 1,434 | 0.24 | −0.09 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Open Council (Conceyu Abiertu) | 1,421 | 0.24 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC) | 1,034 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Democracy (DN) | 711 | 0.12 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal and Social Alternative (ALS) | 334 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Front–Republican Social Movement (FrN–MSR) | 260 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) | 11 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 15,611 | 2.60 | +0.19 | |||
| Total | 600,274 | 45 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 600,274 | 98.56 | −0.64 | |||
| Invalid votes | 8,798 | 1.44 | +0.64 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 609,072 | 61.69 | +0.10 | |||
| Abstentions | 378,233 | 38.31 | −0.10 | |||
| Registered voters | 987,305 | |||||
| Sources[15][16][17][18] | ||||||
