2011 Extremaduran regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Extremadura
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A regional election was held in Extremadura on 22 May 2011 to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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1.5%
0.3 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 May 2011
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All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura 33 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 906,551 1.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 676,768 (74.7%) 0.3 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Assembly of Extremadura | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For the first time since 1983, the People's Party (PP) was able to win a regional election, obtaining its best historical result, with 46.1% of the share and 32 seats. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had formed the government of the Extremaduran region since 1983, achieving an absolute majority of seats at every election except in 1995, was ousted from power in the worst result obtained by the party until that time.[1]
However, as the PP stood one seat short of an overall majority, the possibility arose of PSOE pact with United Left (IU), which had re-entered the Assembly after a four-year absence, in order to maintain the regional government.[2] However, IU declined to support outgoing Socialist Guillermo Fernández Vara after a 24-year PSOE rule over the region, opting to abstain in the investiture voting and allowing the most-voted candidate to be elected. As a result of the PP having more seats than the PSOE, party candidate José Antonio Monago became the first not-Socialist democratically elected President of the region.[3]
Overview
Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[4] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[5]
Date
The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election. Amendments earlier in 2011 abolished fixed-term elections, instead allowing the term of the Assembly to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[6] The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 3 May 2011, setting the latest possible date for election day on 26 June 2011.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[7] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[8]
The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOE, setting election day for 22 May.[9]
Electoral system
Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[10] Amendments earlier in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[11][12]
The Assembly of Extremadura had a maximum of 65 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 distributed in proportion to population—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both constituencies and reached five percent regionally.[13]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:[14]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[15]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[16][17]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[18] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[19]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PSOE–r | List
|
.jpg) |
Guillermo Fernández Vara | Social democracy | 53.0% | 38 |  |
[20] [21] [22] | |
| PP–EU | List
|
|
José Antonio Monago | Conservatism Christian democracy |
38.7% | 27 |  |
[23] [24] [25] | |
| IU–SIEx | List
|
 |
Pedro Escobar | Socialism Communism |
4.5% | 0 | |
[26] [27] [28] | |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 74.7 | 43.4 30 |
46.1 32 |
5.7 3 |
1.1 0 |
2.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] | 9–11 May 2011 | 500 | ? | 43.6 30/31 |
48.7 32/34 |
4.6 0/3 |
– | 5.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 2][p 3] | 3–10 May 2011 | ? | ? | 46.8 31/32 |
44.9 31/32 |
? 2 |
– | 1.9 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 4][p 5] | 4–5 May 2011 | 750 | ? | 43.3 30/31 |
46.8 33/34 |
4.5 1 |
– | 3.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 6][p 7] | 25 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 47.1 32/34 |
44.6 31/32 |
? 0/1 |
– | 2.5 |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 8] | 13–20 Apr 2011 | 600 | ? | 44.6 30 |
46.6 32 |
6.8 3 |
– | 2.0 |
| CIS[p 9][p 10] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 45.3 31 |
44.8 32 |
4.8 2 |
1.6 0 |
0.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 11] | 11–14 Apr 2011 | 500 | ? | 43.8 30/31 |
48.4 32/34 |
4.9 0/3 |
– | 4.6 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 12][p 13][p 14] | 4–10 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 44.4 30/31 |
45.3 31/32 |
5.6 2/3 |
– | 0.9 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15][p 16] | 28 Mar–1 Apr 2011 | 500 | ? | 46.8 32/33 |
44.4 31/32 |
4.6 1/2 |
– | 2.4 |
| GESPA/PP[p 17] | 10–14 Jan 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 44.7 31/32 |
45.8 33 |
4.9 0/1 |
– | 1.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 18][p 19] | 30 Dec–3 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 48.1 32/34 |
43.6 30/31 |
? 1/2 |
– | 4.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 20] | 28–29 Dec 2010 | 500 | ? | 45.6 32 |
45.5 31/33 |
4.9 0/2 |
– | 0.1 |
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[p 21] | 23–27 Dec 2010 | 1,000 | ? | 45.7 30/32 |
45.1 31/32 |
5.3 2/3 |
– | 0.6 |
| Q Índice/PSOE[p 22] | 14–18 Jun 2010 | 702 | ? | 49.0 33/35 |
43.0 29/30 |
4.5 1/2 |
– | 6.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 23] | 25–27 May 2010 | 500 | ? | 44.4 30/32 |
48.8 33/35 |
4.0 0 |
– | 4.4 |
| GESPA/PP[p 24] | 15–30 Mar 2010 | 1,200 | ? | 46.6 33 |
44.9 32 |
4.4 0 |
– | 1.7 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25] | 15–18 Mar 2010 | 799 | ? | 48.1 33 |
44.4 31 |
4.6 1 |
– | 3.7 |
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[p 26] | 12–19 Feb 2010 | 1,200 | ? | 48.0 33/35 |
43.8 30/32 |
4.2 0 |
– | 4.2 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 50.6 | 48.6 (34) |
44.1 (31) |
2.5 (0) |
1.9 (0) |
4.5 |
| 2008 general election | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 78.5 | 52.3 (37) |
41.8 (28) |
2.9 (0) |
0.8 (0) |
10.5 |
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 75.0 | 53.0 38 |
38.7 27 |
4.5 0 |
– | 14.3 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election[a] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 32.7 | 34.7 | 4.2 | 0.8 | N/a | 23.8 | 2.0 |
| CIS[p 9] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | 34.0 | 29.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 24.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15] | 28 Mar–1 Apr 2011 | 500 | 31.6 | 30.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | – | – | 0.9 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25] | 15–18 Mar 2010 | 799 | 29.9 | 27.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | – | – | 2.9 |
| 2009 EP election[a] | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 24.7 | 22.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | N/a | 48.6 | 2.1 |
| 2008 general election[a] | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 41.3 | 33.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | N/a | 20.3 | 8.1 |
| 2007 regional election[a] | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 39.9 | 29.3 | 3.4 | – | N/a | 23.9 | 10.6 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.
- All candidates
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vara PSOE |
Monago PP |
Escobar IU |
García-Borruel UPyD | ||||||
| CIS[p 9] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | 44.6 | 30.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 20.1 | 14.5 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 27] | 4–10 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | 48.5 | 32.9 | 2.9 | – | – | 15.7 | 15.6 |
| GESPA/PP[p 17] | 10–14 Jan 2011 | 1,200 | 35.3 | 28.2 | 3.9 | – | 5.9 | 23.2 | 7.1 |
- Vara vs. Monago
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party–United Extremadura (PP–EU) | 307,975 | 46.13 | +7.42 | 32 | +5 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Regionalists (PSOE–regionalistas) | 290,045 | 43.45 | −9.55 | 30 | −8 | |
| United Left–Independent Socialists of Extremadura (IU–SIEx) | 38,157 | 5.72 | +1.20 | 3 | +3 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 7,058 | 1.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Independents for Extremadura (IPEx) | 4,659 | 0.70 | −0.56 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Ecolo–The Greens (Ecolo–LV)1 | 3,887 | 0.58 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Extremaduran People's Union (UPEx) | 2,185 | 0.33 | +0.10 | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,573 | 0.24 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Convergence for Extremadura (CEx) | 1,056 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 836 | 0.13 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB) | 774 | 0.12 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 9,394 | 1.41 | +0.22 | |||
| Total | 667,599 | 65 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 667,599 | 98.65 | −0.62 | |||
| Invalid votes | 9,169 | 1.35 | +0.62 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 676,768 | 74.65 | −0.30 | |||
| Abstentions | 229,783 | 25.35 | +0.30 | |||
| Registered voters | 906,551 | |||||
| Sources[16][29] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
Aftermath
Government formation
2014 motion of no confidence
Notes
- Does not include non-resident citizens.