2011 Valencian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of the Valencian Community
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in the Valencian Community on 22 May 2011 to elect the 8th Corts of the autonomous community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
_(Recortada).jpg)
1.7% 0.1 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 May 2011
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All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes 50 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 3,549,687 1.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 2,491,588 (70.2%) 0.1 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election was won by the People's Party (PP), which increased its majority despite a drop in its vote share. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) continued its long term decline and, similarly to the PSOE's performance in other regions with concurrent elections, it sustained severed damage from voters—weary of the ongoing financial crisis affecting the country—and obtained one of its worst electoral results since the autonomous community's inception. On the other hand, the electoral alliance between United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV) and the Valencian Nationalist Bloc (Bloc) which contested the 2007 election had dissolved, with both parties entering the legislature much at the expense of the declining PSOE. The Bloc, running together with Valencian People's Initiative (IdPV) and The Greens–Ecologist Left of the Valencian Country (EV–EE) under the Coalició Compromís umbrella, entered parliament on its own for the first time in history.
While Francisco Camps was able to get re-elected as president, his alleged implication in the Gürtel affair would see his resignation just one month into his third term in July.[1] He would be succeeded by Alberto Fabra, who would serve in the post for the remainder of the term.[2]
Overview
Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Corts Valencianes were the unicameral legislature of the Valencian Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[3] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[4]
Date
The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election. Amendments in 2006—taking effect after the 2007 election—abolished fixed-term elections, instead allowing the term of the Corts to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[5] The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGV no later than 3 May 2011, setting the latest possible date for election day on 26 June 2011.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process.[6] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[7]
The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOGV, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 9 June.[8]
Electoral system
Voting for the Corts was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[9] Amendments earlier in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[10][11]
The Corts Valencianes had a minimum of 99 seats, with the electoral law fixing its size at that number. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 distributed in proportion to population (with the seat-to-population ratio in any given province not exceeding three times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[12]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:[13]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[14]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[15]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[16] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[17]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Francisco Camps | Conservatism Christian democracy |
52.5% | 54 |  |
[18] [19] [20] | |
| PSPV–PSOE | List
|
.jpg) |
Jorge Alarte | Social democracy | 34.5% | 38 |  |
[21] [22] | |
| EUPV | List |
.jpg) |
Marga Sanz | Socialism Communism |
8.0% [b] |
7 | |
[23] [24] | |
| Compromís | List |
.jpg) |
Enric Morera | Valencianism Progressivism Green politics |
|
[25] [26] | |||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
EUPV |  |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 70.2 | 49.4 55 |
28.0 33 |
5.9 5 |
7.2 6 |
2.5 0 |
21.4 |
| Ipsos–Eco/FORTA[p 1] | 22 May 2011 | ? | ? | 49.9 56/59 |
27.6 29/32 |
6.6 5/6 |
6.4 5/6 |
– | 22.3 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 2][p 3] | 10–11 May 2011 | 1,500 | 68.2 | 51.3 56/58 |
29.2 32/34 |
8.3 9 |
4.4 0 |
– | 23.1 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 4][p 5] | 9–10 May 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 51.6 59 |
28.7 33 |
7.1 7 |
4.2 0 |
– | 22.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 6][p 7] | 3–10 May 2011 | ? | ? | 54.9 58/61 |
29.1 33/34 |
? 5/6 |
– | – | 25.8 |
| GAD/La Gaceta[p 8][p 9] | 26 Apr–3 May 2011 | 893 | ? | 54.1 58 |
31.1 35 |
7.2 6 |
3.9 0 |
– | 23.0 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 10][p 11][p 12] | 19–26 Apr 2011 | 3,200 | ? | 52.6 58/60 |
30.1 34/36 |
6.0 3/5 |
3.2 0 |
1.6 0 |
22.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 13][p 14] | 25 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 55.8 58/61 |
29.2 34/35 |
5.8 4/6 |
4.1 0 |
– | 26.6 |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 15] | 13–20 Apr 2011 | 700 | ? | 51.2 57 |
28.9 33 |
6.4 5 |
5.8 4 |
– | 22.3 |
| CIS[p 16][p 17] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,983 | ? | 53.1 60 |
28.8 33 |
7.1 6 |
2.7 0 |
1.7 0 |
24.3 |
| GAD/COPE[p 18][p 19][p 20] | 13–14 Apr 2011 | 402 | ? | 54.2 57/59 |
31.6 33/35 |
6.7 6/7 |
3.7 0 |
– | 22.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 21][p 22] | 11–14 Apr 2011 | 900 | ? | 52.3 56/59 |
32.6 36/39 |
6.4 4 |
3.5 0 |
– | 19.7 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 23] | 4–7 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 50.4 55 |
32.6 35 |
5.7 5 |
5.7 4 |
– | 17.8 |
| Inmerco/Valencia Plaza[p 24][p 25] | 30 Mar–5 Apr 2011 | 401 | ? | 53.4 | 29.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | – | 23.5 |
| GAD/ABC[p 26] | 7–15 Mar 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 55.1 60 |
30.5 33 |
6.8 6 |
3.7 0 |
– | 24.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 27][p 28] | 17–21 Dec 2010 | 900 | ? | 56.7 63/65 |
27.3 29/32 |
5.6 4/5 |
3.0 0 |
– | 29.4 |
| PSPV[p 29][p 30] | 5–15 Oct 2010 | 1,200 | 66.5 | 56.1 60 |
29.9 35 |
5.3 4 |
4.0 0 |
– | 26.2 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 31][p 32] | 5–6 Oct 2010 | 1,000 | ? | 51.2 60 |
29.3 33 |
6.7 6 |
3.5 0 |
– | 21.9 |
| Astel/PP[p 33][p 34] | 20 Sep–6 Oct 2010 | 1,600 | ? | 54.8 57/58 |
31.0 33/34 |
8.5 8 |
– | – | 23.8 |
| Área de Consultoría[p 35][p 36] | 6–10 Sep 2010 | 1,200 | ? | 53.4 57 |
31.7 36 |
6.4 6 |
3.5 0 |
– | 21.7 |
| Astel/PP[p 37][p 38] | 19–23 Jul 2010 | ? | ? | 54.7 57/58 |
31.2 34/35 |
7.8 7 |
– | – | 23.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 39] | 24–27 May 2010 | 900 | ? | 55.8 59/64 |
30.7 30/33 |
6.4 4/6 |
2.5 0 |
– | 25.1 |
| PSPV[p 29][p 40][p 41][p 42] | 21 May 2010 | 1,500 | ? | 54.0 58 |
31.6 35 |
5.5 6 |
4.5 0 |
– | 22.4 |
| Inmerco/Valencia Plaza[p 43][p 44] | 26–30 Apr 2010 | 400 | ? | 51.9 | 34.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | – | 17.4 |
| Astel/PP[p 45][p 46] | 6–29 Apr 2010 | 1,600 | ? | 54.9 57/58 |
32.4 35/36 |
7.2 6 |
– | – | 22.5 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 47][p 48] | 23–25 Mar 2010 | 800 | ? | 51.0 57/58 |
31.2 35/36 |
8.0 6 |
3.3 0 |
1.7 0 |
19.8 |
| Astel/PP[p 49][p 50] | 10–16 Dec 2009 | 1,197 | ? | 55.1 57 |
32.8 36 |
7.0 6 |
– | – | 22.3 |
| PSPV[p 29] | 27 Nov 2009 | ? | ? | 51.2 | 35.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | – | 15.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 51][p 52] | 4–5 Nov 2009 | 500 | ? | 50.8 | 33.4 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 17.4 | |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 53][p 54] | 5–6 Oct 2009 | ? | ? | 53.3 61 |
32.2 36 |
5.3 2 |
4.0 0 |
– | 21.1 |
| Astel/PP[p 55][p 56] | 1–12 Sep 2009 | 1,204 | ? | 54.1 57 |
32.9 35 |
7.5 7 |
2.5 0 |
– | 21.2 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 52.8 | 52.2 (58) |
37.6 (41) |
2.8 (0) |
1.0 (0) |
2.1 (0) |
14.6 |
| PSPV[p 57][p 58] | 10 May 2009 | 1,200 | 68.6 | 52.1 57 |
32.7 38 |
– | – | – | 19.4 |
| PP[p 59][p 60][p 61] | 16–26 Feb 2009 | ? | ? | 53.7 57 |
33.6 36 |
? 6 |
– | – | 20.1 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 62] | 9 Oct 2008 | ? | ? | 55.4 59 |
34.4 40 |
– | – | – | 21.0 |
| 2008 general election | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 78.8 | 51.6 (56) |
41.0 (43) |
2.7 (0) |
1.1 (0) |
0.7 (0) |
10.6 |
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 70.1 | 52.5 54 |
34.5 38 |
8.0 7 |
– | 18.0 | |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
EUPV | |
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election[c] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 34.7 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | N/a | 28.5 | 15.0 |
| CIS[p 16] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,983 | 36.6 | 15.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 27.2 | 7.5 | 20.8 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 23] | 4–7 Apr 2011 | ? | 34.3 | 20.6 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | – | – | 13.7 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 47] | 23–25 Mar 2010 | 800 | 39.0 | 20.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | – | – | 18.8 |
| 2009 EP election[c] | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 27.8 | 19.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | N/a | 46.6 | 7.9 |
| 2008 general election[c] | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 40.9 | 32.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | N/a | 20.3 | 8.6 |
| 2007 regional election[c] | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 37.1 | 24.4 | 5.7 | – | N/a | 29.1 | 12.7 | |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
EUPV | |
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 16] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,983 | 83.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | – | 0.2 | 12.4 | 80.0 |
| GAD/COPE[p 19] | 13–14 Apr 2011 | 402 | 84.3 | 7.5 | – | – | – | 0.5 | 7.7 | 76.8 |
| Astel/PP[p 34] | 20 Sep–6 Oct 2010 | 1,600 | 76.3 | 9.9 | – | – | – | 3.2 | 10.6 | 66.4 |
| Área de Consultoría[p 35] | 6–10 Sep 2010 | 1,200 | 70.6 | 11.1 | – | – | – | 18.3 | 59.5 | |
| Astel/PP[p 37] | 19–23 Jul 2010 | ? | 77.1 | 5.8 | – | – | – | 2.0 | 12.8 | 71.3 |
| Astel/PP[p 46] | 6–29 Apr 2010 | 1,600 | 74.7 | 10.0 | – | – | – | 1.5 | 13.8 | 64.7 |
| Astel/PP[p 50] | 10–16 Dec 2009 | 1,197 | 73.1 | 12.5 | – | – | – | 0.8 | 13.6 | 60.6 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
.jpg) |
 |
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camps PP |
Alarte PSPV |
Sanz EUPV |
Morera Compromís |
Oltra Compromís |
Soriano UPyD | ||||||
| GAD/La Gaceta[p 8] | 26 Apr–3 May 2011 | 893 | 48.7 | 21.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27.5 |
| CIS[p 16] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 1,983 | 40.4 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | – | 0.8 | 7.8 | 30.3 | 23.9 |
| GAD/COPE[p 19] | 13–14 Apr 2011 | 402 | 52.5 | 20.1 | 2.2 | 2.7 | – | – | 13.4 | 9.0 | 32.4 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 23] | 4–7 Apr 2011 | ? | 41.8 | 25.2 | – | – | – | – | 33.0 | 16.6 | |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 31] | 5–6 Oct 2010 | 1,000 | 40.0 | 39.0 | – | – | – | – | 21.0 | 1.0 | |
| Astel/PP[p 38] | 19–23 Jul 2010 | ? | 48.4 | 18.4 | 0.7 | 3.5 | – | – | 29.0 | 30.0 | |
| Astel/PP[p 46] | 6–29 Apr 2010 | 1,600 | 45.5 | 17.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 2.2 | – | 34.7 | 27.6 | |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 47] | 23–25 Mar 2010 | 800 | 38.3 | 20.0 | – | – | – | – | 41.7 | 18.3 | |
| Astel/PP[p 50] | 10–16 Dec 2009 | 1,197 | 45.6 | 15.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 | – | 34.7 | 30.3 | |
| PP[p 61] | 16–26 Feb 2009 | ? | 53.1 | 15.6 | – | – | – | – | 31.3 | 37.5 | |
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 1,211,112 | 49.42 | −3.10 | 55 | +1 | |
| Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) | 687,141 | 28.04 | −6.45 | 33 | −5 | |
| Bloc–Initiative–Greens: Commitment Coalition (Compromís)1 | 176,213 | 7.19 | n/a | 6 | +4 | |
| United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV)1 | 144,703 | 5.90 | n/a | 5 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 60,859 | 2.48 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Greens and Eco-pacifists (VyE) | 31,808 | 1.30 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spain 2000 (E–2000) | 12,191 | 0.50 | +0.26 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Republican Left of the Valencian Country (ERPV) | 11,129 | 0.45 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 9,306 | 0.38 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Valencian Coalition (CVa) | 9,183 | 0.37 | −0.34 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) | 8,203 | 0.33 | +0.30 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB) | 4,222 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| United for Valencia (UxV) | 3,637 | 0.15 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 3,456 | 0.14 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 2,566 | 0.10 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Renewal Liberal Centre (CLR) | 2,463 | 0.10 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Democracy (DN) | 2,151 | 0.09 | +0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) | 1,719 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Authentic Phalanx (FA) | 1,627 | 0.07 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Movement for People's Unity–Republicans (MUP–R) | 1,440 | 0.06 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 1,412 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 1,156 | 0.05 | +0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Republic (La República) | 735 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Valencian Nationalist Left–European Valencianist Party (ENV–RV–PVE) | 677 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Patriotic Social Party (SPES) | 585 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Foreigners' Party (PdEx) | 508 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 60,670 | 2.48 | +1.07 | |||
| Total | 2,450,872 | 99 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 2,450,872 | 98.37 | −0.96 | |||
| Invalid votes | 40,716 | 1.63 | +0.96 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 2,491,588 | 70.19 | +0.05 | |||
| Abstentions | 1,058,099 | 29.81 | −0.05 | |||
| Registered voters | 3,549,687 | |||||
| Sources[15][27][28] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
Aftermath
Government formation
July 2011 investiture
Notes
- Within the Compromís PV alliance in the 2007 election: EUPV (5 seats) and Bloc (2 seats).
- Results for Compromís PV in the 2007 election.
- Does not include non-resident citizens.