2012 Andalusian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in Andalusia on 25 March 2012 to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with a regional election in Asturias.
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2.6%
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25 March 2012
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All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 6,392,620 2.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 3,885,137 (60.8%) 11.9 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top in the regional election for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011, with Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform having triggered a general strike for 29 March. Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to hold the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election, the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.
Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling five seats short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.[1]
Background
The 2008 election had seen Manuel Chaves secure a sixth term in office as president of the Regional Government of Andalusia, having governed the autonomous community uninterruptedly during the previous 18 years. However, Chaves's long tenure had already started taking a toll on his popularity in opinion polls, and in April 2009 he vacated the regional presidency in order to become third deputy prime minister in the second government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. José Antonio Griñán, second vice president of the Andalusian government since 2008 and regional minister for Economy and Finance since 2004, succeeded Chaves at the helm of the regional government.
During Griñán's term, his party had to deal with the worsening economic situation resulting from the financial crisis affecting Spain since 2008, with rising unemployment reaching record heights and traditional savings banks being dismantled for being economically unsustainable.[2] The PSOE–A also had to cope with the political fallout resulting from the ERE scandal, a corruption scheme involving the ruling party, as well as the Workers' Commissions (CCOO) and General Union of Workers (UGT) trade unions, which saw irregular payments to politicians, civil servants and companies aligned to the PSOE in exchange for loyalties and favours meant to sustain the party in power. Those payments were charged to an economic fund intended to support companies with problems—more specifically, those that were forced to undergo "Employment Regulation Procedures" (in Spanish, Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo or ERE, terminology that gave the scandal its name)—. The scandal first came under investigation in January 2011, and by the time of the 2012 regional election judicial inquiries reached out to government officers and renown figures.[3]
The opposition People's Party (PP) of Mariano Rajoy won a resounding victory in the 2011 general election in Andalusia, winning in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy: the PP obtained 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A)'s 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in the 2008 general election. United Left (IULV–CA) won 2 seats from Seville and Málaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes. Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the PP an absolute majority with 58 seats—out of 109 up for election—, with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. IULV–CA would keep its 6 seats on the projections while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) could enter the Parliament of Andalusia with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30 year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community, the party having been in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.[4]
The regularly scheduled 2012 election in Andalusia, which was unexpectedly joined by a snap election in Asturias, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011.[5] Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.[6][7]
Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[8] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[9]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).[10] The previous election was held on 9 March 2008, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 9 March 2012. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 14 February 2012, setting the latest possible date for election day on 8 April 2012.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[11] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[12]
Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for either 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election on 20 November 2011 made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election result.[13][14] This marked the first time since 1994 that an Andalusian regional election was not held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had announced a general election—initially scheduled for March 2012—four months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011, whereas Griñán chose not to follow suit and to maintain the date of the regional election for early 2012.[15]
The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 31 January 2012 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 25 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 April.[16]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[17] Amendments in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[18][19]
The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 109 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[20] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[21]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[22]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[23]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[24]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[25] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[26]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PSOE–A | List |
-2.jpg) |
José Antonio Griñán | Social democracy | 48.4% | 56 |  |
[27] [28] [29] | |
| PP | List
|
|
Javier Arenas | Conservatism Christian democracy |
38.5% | 47 |  |
[30] [31] | |
| IULV–CA | List
|
.jpg) |
Diego Valderas | Socialism Communism |
7.1% | 6 | |
[32] [33] | |
| PA | List
|
 |
Pilar González | Andalusian nationalism Social democracy |
2.8% [a] |
0 | |
[34] | |
| UPyD | List |
|
Martín de la Herrán | Social liberalism Radical centrism |
0.6% | 0 | |
[35] | |
Campaign
Party slogans
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Ref. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE–A | « Andalucía, por el camino seguro » | "Andalusia, through the safe way" | [36] | |
| PP | « El cambio andaluz » | "The Andalusian change" | [36] | |
| IULV–CA | « Rebélate! » | "Rebel!" | [36] | |
| PA | « PAlante » | "Forward" | [36] | |
| UPyD | « Lo que nos une » | "What unites us" | [36] | |
Debates
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
IULV |  |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 regional election | 25 Mar 2012 | N/a | 60.8 | 39.6 47 |
40.7 50 |
11.3 12 |
2.5 0 |
3.4 0 |
1.1 |
| Ipsos/RTVA[p 1][p 2] | 25 Mar 2012 | ? | 60.4 | 39.2 45/48 |
42.0 52/55 |
9.9 8/10 |
2.7 0 |
3.0 0 |
2.8 |
| GAD3[p 3] | 19 Mar 2012 | ? | ? | 38.1 44/48 |
46.7 55/58 |
8.1 7/9 |
2.1 0 |
2.7 0 |
8.6 |
| UJA[p 4] | 12–16 Mar 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 36.8 43/45 |
42.9 53/56 |
10.8 9/10 |
2.7 0/1 |
3.6 0/1 |
6.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 5] | 12–15 Mar 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 36.0 43/44 |
45.8 54/57 |
8.9 7/9 |
2.9 0/1 |
3.8 1/2 |
9.8 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 6][p 7] | 6–15 Mar 2012 | 1,200 | ? | 34.4 41 |
47.3 59 |
8.8 9 |
2.7 0 |
3.2 0 |
12.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 8][p 9] | 1–15 Mar 2012 | 2,700 | 67.6 | 36.1 42/44 |
46.0 55/57 |
9.3 7/9 |
? 0/1 |
4.2 0/2 |
9.9 |
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 10][p 11] | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | ? | 36.0 | 46.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 10.7 |
| IMC/ABC[p 12][p 13] | 7–12 Mar 2012 | 1,000 | ? | 35.6 43 |
47.0 58 |
8.7 6 |
1.8 0 |
4.6 2 |
11.4 |
| Low Cost/La Gaceta[p 14] | 5–12 Mar 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 37.2 44 |
45.2 57 |
8.5 7 |
– | ? 1 |
8.0 |
| GAD3[p 15][p 16] | 5–8 Mar 2012 | 750 | 63 | 36.8 42/45 |
46.2 56/58 |
9.2 7/10 |
2.4 0 |
2.9 0/1 |
9.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18] | 20 Feb–6 Mar 2012 | 2,700 | 67.7 | 35.7 41/44 |
45.7 55/57 |
9.9 8/9 |
? 0/1 |
4.3 0/2 |
10.0 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 19][p 20] | 13–29 Feb 2012 | 1,001 | ? | 36.9 44/47 |
45.2 54/57 |
8.5 7/8 |
2.3 0 |
3.7 0/1 |
8.3 |
| CIS[p 21][p 22] | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | ? | 37.7 44/46 |
44.9 54/55 |
9.8 9/10 |
2.6 0 |
2.6 0 |
7.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 23] | 22–24 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 36.3 42/44 |
45.0 54/57 |
9.3 8/9 |
2.4 0/1 |
4.2 1/2 |
8.7 |
| GESPA/PP[p 24] | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 37.2 43/44 |
46.7 56/58 |
7.6 6/7 |
2.2 0 |
3.9 2 |
9.5 |
| IMC/ABC[p 25][p 26] | 8–16 Feb 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 36.2 43/44 |
46.3 56/60 |
8.2 5/7 |
2.2 0 |
4.3 1/2 |
10.1 |
| Nexo/CEPES–A[p 27][p 28] | 1–14 Feb 2012 | 1,600 | 71.5 | 37.6 46/47 |
45.1 53/57 |
7.5 6/8 |
2.8 0/1 |
3.3 0/1 |
7.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 29] | 1–13 Feb 2012 | ? | 67.6 | 34.2 41 |
47.4 57 |
? 9 |
? 1 |
? 1 |
13.2 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 30][p 31] | 30 Jan 2012 | ? | 67.3 | 35.6 44 |
46.9 55 |
8.9 8 |
2.9 1 |
3.8 1 |
11.3 |
| IMC/ABC[p 32] | 16–24 Jan 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 35.2 | 47.1 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 11.9 |
| Low Cost/Libertad Digital[p 33][p 34] | 22 Jan 2012 | 2,400 | ? | 36.6 44 |
43.7 56 |
9.1 8 |
– | 4.6 1 |
7.1 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 35][p 36] | 1–30 Dec 2011 | 3,200 | 63.4 | 37.6 45/47 |
47.0 56/58 |
6.3 5/6 |
2.0 0 |
3.0 0/1 |
9.4 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 68.9 | 36.6 (44) |
45.6 (58) |
8.3 (5) |
1.8 (0) |
4.8 (2) |
9.0 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37][p 38] | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | ? | 34.8 | 49.4 | 8.4 | 2.0 | – | 14.6 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 39][p 40] | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 69.8 | 36.0 | 46.4 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 10.4 |
| ABC[p 41] | 29 Jul 2011 | ? | 68.2 | 33.2 | 50.2 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 17.0 |
| Sigma Dos/PP[p 42] | 14–19 Jul 2011 | 800 | ? | 34.2 | 50.4 | 7.7 | 2.8 | – | 16.2 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 43] | 6 Jun–11 Jul 2011 | 3,600 | 69.9 | 34.3 | 48.9 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 14.6 |
| IMOP/PSOE[p 44] | 4–10 Jul 2011 | 1,514 | ? | 39.0 | 46.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 45][p 46][p 47] | 12–15 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 36.8 43/46 |
48.0 56/60 |
7.8 6/7 |
– | – | 11.2 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 48][p 49] | 21–22 Feb 2011 | 804 | ? | 35.2 45 |
47.5 57 |
8.4 7 |
– | – | 12.3 |
| IMC/ABC[p 50][p 51] | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | ? | 38.2 45 |
45.3 57 |
7.6 7 |
2.3 0 |
– | 7.1 |
| Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 52][p 53] | 15–18 Feb 2011 | 800 | ? | 38.2 | 47.6 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 9.4 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 54][p 55] | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | ? | 36.9 | 47.1 | 8.5 | 2.9 | – | 10.2 |
| GESPA/PP[p 56] | 1–4 Feb 2011 | 1,111 | ? | 37.0 45 |
46.1 56/57 |
7.8 7/8 |
– | – | 9.1 |
| Nexo/CEPES–A[p 57][p 58] | 18 Jan–2 Feb 2011 | 1,200 | 73.0 | 39.7 | 46.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | – | 6.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 59][p 60] | 30 Dec–3 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 39.1 46/47 |
46.2 53/54 |
? 9 |
– | – | 7.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 61][p 62] | 20–23 Dec 2010 | 1,200 | ? | 36.4 41/46 |
49.3 56/64 |
7.2 4/7 |
– | – | 12.9 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 63] | 24 Nov–22 Dec 2010 | 3,200 | 75.2 | 36.2 | 45.4 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 9.2 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 64][p 65] | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 71.0 | 37.7 43 |
46.8 58 |
8.2 8 |
2.9 0 |
1.7 0 |
9.1 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 66][p 67] | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | ? | 39.1 | 46.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 7.1 |
| GESPA/PP[p 68][p 69][p 70] | 20–26 Sep 2010 | 1,111 | ? | 38.2 45/46 |
45.5 56/57 |
7.6 7 |
2.5 0 |
1.7 0 |
7.3 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 71] | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 72.1 | 38.0 | 45.1 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 7.1 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 72] | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | ? | 38.1 | 45.4 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 7.3 |
| IMC/ABC[p 73] | 8–12 Jun 2010 | 817 | ? | 38.7 46 |
44.3 56 |
7.6 7 |
2.3 0 |
– | 5.6 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 74][p 75] | 15–18 Feb 2010 | 804 | ? | 41.0 49 |
43.3 54 |
7.2 6 |
2.9 0 |
– | 2.3 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 76] | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | ? | 42.9 | 42.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 77][p 75] | 8–15 Feb 2010 | 800 | ? | 41.8 | 45.7 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| IMC/ABC[p 78] | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | ? | 40.8 51 |
42.9 52 |
7.2 6 |
2.1 0 |
– | 2.1 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 79] | 7–29 Jan 2010 | 3,200 | 76.7 | 43.2 | 41.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| PULSO/El Correo[p 80][p 75] | 11–28 Jan 2010 | 1,800 | ? | 41.8 | 41.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Nexo/CEPES–A[p 81][p 82] | 20–28 Jan 2010 | 1,207 | 71.0 | 41.3 | 41.9 | 6.9 | 3.9 | – | 0.6 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 83][p 84] | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 70.5 | 41.6 | 43.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 85] | 23 Sep–2 Oct 2009 | 1,002 | 75 | 42.7 | 42.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 86] | 9 Jun–9 Jul 2009 | 3,200 | 74.9 | 46.2 | 39.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 6.5 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 87] | 28 Jun 2009 | 1,003 | 75 | 45.6 | 39.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 6.5 |
| GESPA/PP[p 88] | 16–24 Jun 2009 | 2,500 | ? | 44.1 | 42.8 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Grupo ESTIO/El Correo[p 89] | 25 May–19 Jun 2009 | 1,400 | ? | 48.6 | 40.2 | 6.2 | 1.8 | – | 8.4 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 41.7 | 48.2 (58) |
39.7 (48) |
5.2 (3) |
1.0 (0) |
2.5 (0) |
8.5 |
| Sigma Dos/Vocento[p 90][p 91] | 19–23 Feb 2009 | 800 | ? | 46.8 | 40.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | – | 6.3 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 92][p 91] | 10–12 Feb 2009 | 800 | 73.3 | 44.3 53/55 |
43.2 49/50 |
6.6 5/6 |
2.9 0 |
– | 1.1 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 93][p 91] | 29 Jan–11 Feb 2009 | 1,000 | ? | 46.2 | 39.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 7.1 |
| IMC/ABC[p 94] | 5–9 Feb 2009 | 1,600 | ? | 45.8 54 |
42.6 49 |
6.9 6 |
1.9 0 |
– | 3.2 |
| Nexo/CEPES–A[p 95] | 20–30 Jan 2009 | 1,202 | 70.5 | 45.8 | 39.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 | – | 6.2 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 96][p 97] | 9–19 Dec 2008 | 2,000 | ? | 44.7 52 |
43.1 51 |
7.6 6 |
1.5 0 |
– | 1.6 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 98] | 14 Nov–12 Dec 2008 | 3,200 | 74.7 | 46.2 | 38.8 | 7.5 | 2.2 | – | 7.4 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 99][p 100][p 101] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | 71.8 | 47.0 | 40.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | – | 6.2 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 102] | 20 Sep–2 Oct 2008 | 1,007 | ? | 46.5 | 39.6 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6.9 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 103] | 2 Jun–4 Jul 2008 | 3,200 | 74.0 | 46.7 | 38.1 | 7.9 | 2.0 | – | 8.6 |
| 2008 regional election | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 72.7 | 48.4 56 |
38.5 47 |
7.1 6 |
2.8 0 |
0.6 0 |
9.9 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
IULV | |
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 regional election[d] | 25 Mar 2012 | N/a | 24.5 | 25.2 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | N/a | 37.8 | 0.7 |
| CIS[p 21] | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | 29.6 | 25.3 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 19.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 35] | 1–30 Dec 2011 | 3,200 | 21.4 | 31.3 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 22.6 | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| 2011 general election[d] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 25.6 | 31.9 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 3.3 | N/a | 29.3 | 6.3 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | 21.9 | 34.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 39] | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 23.4 | 32.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 23.3 | 6.1 | 9.0 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 43] | 6 Jun–11 Jul 2011 | 3,600 | 18.5 | 32.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 27.8 | 8.3 | 13.5 |
| IMC/ABC[p 50] | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | 28.9 | 32.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | – | 25.9 | – | 3.6 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | 21.3 | 29.8 | – | – | – | – | – | 8.5 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 63] | 24 Nov–22 Dec 2010 | 3,200 | 20.8 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 24.2 | 12.6 | 6.2 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 64] | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 22.5 | 30.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 27.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | 23.4 | 30.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 7.0 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 71] | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 22.5 | 25.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 21.7 | 13.6 | 2.9 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | 23.0 | 31.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 8.1 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 104] | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | 27.8 | 27.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| IMC/ABC[p 50] | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | 31.7 | 32.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | – | 25.4 | – | 0.7 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 79] | 7–29 Jan 2010 | 3,200 | 24.7 | 24.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 21.6 | 14.0 | 0.7 |
| Nexo/CEPES–A[p 81] | 20–28 Jan 2010 | 1,207 | 22.2 | 26.3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 23.4 | 10.0 | 4.1 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 83] | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 21.8 | 8.1 | Tie |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 23 Sep–2 Oct 2009 | 1,002 | 26.3 | 28.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.8 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 86] | 9 Jun–9 Jul 2009 | 3,200 | 26.9 | 22.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 24.1 | 13.1 | 4.3 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 28 Jun 2009 | 1,003 | 29.9 | 26.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 3.4 |
| 2009 EP election[d] | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 20.3 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | N/a | 57.6 | 3.5 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 29 Jan–11 Feb 2009 | 1,000 | 29.9 | 25.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 98] | 14 Nov–12 Dec 2008 | 3,200 | 31.9 | 21.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 23.5 | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 99] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | 32.0 | 27.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | – | 22.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 20 Sep–2 Oct 2008 | 1,007 | 27.7 | 24.9 | – | – | – | – | – | 2.8 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 103] | 2 Jun–4 Jul 2008 | 3,200 | 28.2 | 23.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 21.3 | 11.1 | 4.6 |
| 2008 regional election[d] | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 35.3 | 28.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | N/a | 26.4 | 7.0 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
IULV | |
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 10] | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 30.9 | 38.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 7.5 |
| CIS[p 21] | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | 33.6 | 28.3 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 22.8 | 5.3 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 39] | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 26.8 | 35.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 23.8 | 8.2 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 48] | 21–22 Feb 2011 | 804 | 36.0 | 49.0 | – | – | – | 15.0 | 13.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC[p 64] | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 25.8 | 35.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 27.4 | 9.2 |
| GESPA/PP[p 69] | 20–26 Sep 2010 | 1,111 | 27.6 | 33.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 26.9 | 5.8 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 71] | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 27.3 | 0.5 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 74] | 15–18 Feb 2010 | 804 | 37.0 | 42.0 | – | – | – | 21.0 | 5.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC[p 83] | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 31.0 | 31.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 24.5 | 0.2 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 92] | 10–12 Feb 2009 | 800 | 43.0 | 42.0 | – | – | – | 15.0 | 1.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC[p 99] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | – | 26.1 | 5.3 | |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
IULV | |
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAD3[p 3] | 19 Mar 2012 | ? | 22.0 | 63.0 | – | – | – | 15.0 | 41.0 | |
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 10] | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 12.9 | 65.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 20.3 | 52.5 |
| IMC/ABC[p 12] | 7–12 Mar 2012 | 1,000 | 20.0 | 62.9 | – | – | – | 0.6 | 16.5 | 42.9 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 105] | 13–29 Feb 2012 | 1,001 | 18.5 | 57.7 | – | – | – | 23.8 | 39.2 | |
| CIS[p 21] | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | 18.9 | 57.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 22.8 | 38.1 |
| GESPA/PP[p 24] | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | 19.7 | 61.8 | – | – | – | 0.4 | 18.2 | 42.1 |
| IMC/ABC[p 32] | 16–24 Jan 2012 | 1,500 | 19.4 | 64.6 | – | – | – | 16.0 | 45.2 | |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | 19.8 | 58.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | 21.6 | 38.7 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 39] | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 16.9 | 61.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 20.1 | 44.8 |
| IMC/ABC[p 106] | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | 37.9 | 47.2 | – | – | – | 14.9 | 9.3 | |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | 36.8 | 40.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | – | 0.2 | 22.6 | 3.2 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 64] | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 35.5 | 34.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 28.3 | 1.0 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | 49.4 | 31.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | 0.0 | 18.9 | 18.1 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 71] | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 54.9 | 26.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 17.2 | 28.0 |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | 43.6 | 35.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | 0.2 | 19.8 | 7.9 |
| IMC/ABC[p 107] | 8–12 Jun 2010 | 817 | 40.0 | 41.6 | – | – | – | 18.4 | 1.6 | |
| Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 37] | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | 46.3 | 32.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | 0.1 | 20.7 | 13.7 |
| IMC/ABC[p 106] | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | 52.6 | 32.0 | – | – | – | 15.4 | 20.6 | |
| IESA/CSIC[p 83] | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 52.1 | 20.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 25.9 | 31.6 |
| IMC/ABC[p 94] | 5–9 Feb 2009 | 1,600 | 72.9 | 9.8 | – | – | – | 0.6 | 16.7 | 63.1 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 99] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | 62.8 | 12.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | – | 23.3 | 50.0 | |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griñán PSOE–A |
Arenas PP |
Valderas IULV |
González PA |
Herrán UPyD | ||||||
| Metroscopia/El País[p 6] | 6–15 Mar 2012 | 1,200 | 34.0 | 42.0 | – | – | – | 24.0 | 8.0 | |
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 10] | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 30.6 | 39.3 | 6.3 | – | – | 12.9 | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| CIS[p 21] | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | 30.7 | 29.4 | 8.6 | – | – | 7.0 | 24.3 | 1.7 |
| GESPA/PP[p 24] | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | 27.4 | 36.4 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 9.0 |
| IMOP/PSOE[p 44] | 4–10 Jul 2011 | 1,514 | 47.1 | 25.0 | – | – | – | 27.9 | 22.1 | |
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
Voter turnout
The table below shows registered voter turnout during the election. Figures for election day do not include non-resident citizens, while final figures do.
| Province | Time (Election day) | Final | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | 18:00 | 20:00 | ||||||||||
| 2008 | 2012 | +/– | 2008 | 2012 | +/– | 2008 | 2012 | +/– | 2008 | 2012 | +/– | |
| Almería | 40.32% | 29.23% | −11.09 | 60.52% | 45.97% | −14.55 | 74.66% | 60.51% | −14.15 | 72.66% | 56.97% | −15.69 |
| Cádiz | 37.19% | 25.76% | −11.43 | 55.85% | 41.86% | −13.99 | 68.12% | 54.29% | −13.83 | 67.31% | 53.22% | −14.09 |
| Córdoba | 39.91% | 31.85% | −8.06 | 60.88% | 50.23% | −10.65 | 76.62% | 66.50% | −10.12 | 75.62% | 66.50% | −9.12 |
| Granada | 39.98% | 30.86% | −9.12 | 61.01% | 49.43% | −11.58 | 75.89% | 65.43% | −10.46 | 74.16% | 62.44% | −11.72 |
| Huelva | 36.24% | 27.02% | −9.22 | 55.62% | 44.13% | −11.49 | 70.40% | 60.84% | −9.56 | 70.51% | 60.05% | −10.46 |
| Jaén | 38.97% | 32.90% | −6.07 | 61.25% | 52.36% | −8.89 | 79.26% | 70.74% | −8.52 | 78.50% | 69.56% | −8.94 |
| Málaga | 39.93% | 28.09% | −11.84 | 59.49% | 44.67% | −14.82 | 72.31% | 58.05% | −14.26 | 71.19% | 56.33% | −14.86 |
| Seville | 36.26% | 29.97% | −6.29 | 60.72% | 49.54% | −11.18 | 74.38% | 64.93% | −9.45 | 73.71% | 64.00% | −9.71 |
| Total | 39.07% | 29.30% | –9.77 | 59.51% | 47.21% | –12.30 | 73.65% | 62.23% | –11.42 | 72.67% | 60.78% | –11.89 |
| Sources[39] | ||||||||||||
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 1,570,833 | 40.67 | +2.22 | 50 | +3 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 1,527,923 | 39.56 | −8.85 | 47 | −9 | |
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 438,372 | 11.35 | +4.29 | 12 | +6 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 129,407 | 3.35 | +2.73 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Party (PA)1 | 96,770 | 2.51 | −0.25 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Equo (Equo) | 20,383 | 0.53 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 8,781 | 0.23 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB) | 5,660 | 0.15 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Hartos.org (Hartos.org) | 4,966 | 0.13 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 4,119 | 0.11 | +0.05 | 0 | ±0 | |
| We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP) | 2,680 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) | 2,407 | 0.06 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,704 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC) | 1,634 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) | 1,406 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO) | 1,071 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 1,040 | 0.03 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) | 1,026 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 896 | 0.02 | −0.07 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN) | 832 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Socialists and Republicans (SyR) | 787 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Convergence (CAnda) | 762 | 0.02 | −0.15 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Alternative (AES) | 653 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) | 643 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Republican Social Movement (MSR) | 628 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Democratic Majority (MD) | 515 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 408 | 0.01 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD) | 362 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) | 345 | 0.01 | −0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL) | 216 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA) | 156 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA) | 146 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA) | 135 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 35,081 | 0.91 | −0.15 | |||
| Total | 3,862,747 | 109 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 3,862,747 | 99.42 | +0.05 | |||
| Invalid votes | 22,390 | 0.58 | −0.05 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 3,885,137 | 60.78 | −11.89 | |||
| Abstentions | 2,507,483 | 39.22 | +11.89 | |||
| Registered voters | 6,392,620 | |||||
| Sources[24][40] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PP | PSOE–A | IULV–CA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| Almería | 51.2 | 7 | 35.4 | 4 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Cádiz | 40.5 | 7 | 35.6 | 6 | 12.7 | 2 |
| Córdoba | 39.7 | 5 | 38.9 | 5 | 13.3 | 2 |
| Granada | 43.5 | 6 | 39.5 | 6 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Huelva | 38.6 | 5 | 43.4 | 5 | 10.9 | 1 |
| Jaén | 41.1 | 5 | 44.5 | 5 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Málaga | 43.7 | 8 | 35.3 | 7 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Seville | 35.3 | 7 | 43.1 | 9 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Total | 40.7 | 50 | 39.6 | 47 | 11.3 | 12 |
| Sources[24][40] | ||||||
Aftermath
Government formation
On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.
2013 investiture
In July 2013, President Griñán announced he was resigning from his office. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required endorsements to run in the primary election that was held to elect Griñán's successor, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Parliament of Andalusia elected Díaz as new regional premier.