2012 Basque regional election
Election in the Spanish region of the Basque Country
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in the Basque Country on 21 October 2012 to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with a regional election in Galicia. Lehendakari Patxi López announced the parliament's dissolution half a year ahead of schedule as a result of the People's Party (PP) withdrawing their support from his government,[1] prompting Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who had been scheduling a snap election in Galicia to be held at some point throughout late 2012, to make his decision to have a simultaneous vote.[2]
.jpg)
0.0% 0.7 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 October 2012
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 1,775,351 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 1,135,568 (64.0%) 0.7 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The election saw a heavy defeat for the ruling Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE), with the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) retaining first place with a slightly diminished support. In the first electoral campaign without ETA—the band had announced a "definitive cessation of its armed activity" in October 2011[3]—the abertzale left experienced a major breakthrough under the EH Bildu label nine years after the illegalization of Batasuna, obtaining a record result with 21 seats and 24.7% of the share.[4] The PP deepened on its long-term decline and, with 11.6% and 10 seats, scored its worst result since 1990,[5] while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) retained its single seat in parliament. Altogether, the bloc formed by the PSE–EE, PP and UPyD which had supported López in 2009 was reduced from 39 to 27 seats.[6][7]
Iñigo Urkullu of the PNV became the new lehendakari, forming a minority government with the sole support of his party after over three years in opposition.[8] Under Urkullu, the PNV would see an ideological realignment from former lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe's sovereigntist stance and confrontational style towards more moderate, pragmatic and big tent positions.[9][10]
Background
Following the 2009 regional election, Patxi López of the PSE–EE became lehendakari through a confidence and supply agreement with the PP,[11][12] bringing an end to 30 years of uninterrupted rule by the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and sending the party to opposition in the regional parliament for the first time since the Spanish transition to democracy.[13] The local PSE–PP alliance endured the historical rivalry at the national level between the two parties,[14][15] despite suffering from frequent clashes as the PP set out a series of conditions for maintaining their support,[16][15] as well as a steady opposition from the PNV.[17] In May 2012, some months after winning the 2011 Spanish general election and forming the new Spanish government, the PP terminated the alliance in retaliation to the PSOE's opposition to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's reform agenda,[18][19] prompting Patxi López to announce a snap regional election for October 2012.[1]
On 5 September 2010, ETA declared a ceasefire at a time when it found itself militarily weakened by police action—the group had been unable to stage any attack in Spanish territory since 9 August 2009—and beleaguered by infighting, distrust in the operational capacities and reliability of its members and pressures from abertzale left groups (which were being kept politically outlawed by Spanish courts) for the band to stop the killings.[20][21][22] On 10 January 2011, ETA proclaimed its will for the September 2010 ceasefire to be "permanent, general and verifiable" by international observers.[23][24] Three days after the Donostia-San Sebastián International Peace Conference held on 17 October 2011, ETA would announce a "definitive cessation of its armed activity".[25]
In April 2011, following the illegalization of Sortu in March—perceived as a continuation of Batasuna, the banned political branch of the ETA terrorist group—Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), Alternatiba and groups and independent individuals from the abertzale left formed a coalition named Bildu to contest the incoming 2011 local elections.[26][27][28] Despite an early ruling by the Supreme Court on 2 May which barred Bildu from contesting,[29] the Constitutional Court overturned the ban and allowed the coalition to run in the elections,[30] in which it secured a major breakthrough by obtaining 25.6% and a majority of town councillors in the Basque Country.[31][32] Aralar would join the coalition in late 2011 ahead of the 20 November general election under the Amaiur umbrella,[33] which came second in the Basque Country with 24.1% of the vote, behind the PNV with 27.4%; in seats, however, Amaiur came out in top with six against the PNV's five.[34] Subsequently, the four main groups that constituted Amaiur, namely Sortu—which would be legalized by the Constitutional Court in June 2012[35]—EA, Alternatiba and Aralar, announced the establishment of EH Bildu as a joint electoral list ahead of the next Basque regional election,[36] with Laura Mintegi being nominated as the alliance's candidate for lehendakari.[37]
Overview
Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Basque Parliament was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a lehendakari.[38] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[39]
Date
The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[40] The previous election was held on 1 March 2009, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 1 March 2013. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 5 February 2013, setting the latest possible date for election day on 31 March 2013.
The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process.[41] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[42]
The People's Party (PP), on whose confidence and supply the López's government relied, withdrew their support in May 2012 claiming "difficulties in finding meeting points" with the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE), leaving López in a clear minority.[43] While initially intending to reach the end of the legislature,[44] mounting pressure from both the PP and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) led López to announce on 21 August that he would be dissolving parliament and call a snap election for 21 October 2012 over an impossibility to keep carrying out the government's legislative agenda.[45][46]
The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 28 August 2012 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOPV, setting election day for 21 October.[47]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[48] Amendments in 2011 introduced a requirement for non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[49][50]
The Basque Parliament had 75 seats. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, each of which was assigned a fixed number of 25 seats to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[51] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[52]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[53]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[54][55]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group | EAJ/PNV | 30 | 30 | ||
| Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group | PSE–EE (PSOE) | 25 | 25 | ||
| Basque People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 13 | 13 | ||
| Aralar Parliamentary Group | Aralar | 4 | 4 | ||
| Mixed Group | EA | 1 | 3 | ||
| EzAn–IU | 1 | ||||
| UPyD | 1 | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[56] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[57]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| EAJ/PNV | List
|
|
Iñigo Urkullu | Basque nationalism Christian democracy Conservative liberalism |
38.1% | 30 |  |
[58] | |
| PSE–EE (PSOE) |
List
|
.jpg) |
Patxi López | Social democracy | 30.4% | 25 |  |
[59] | |
| PP | List
|
.jpg) |
Antonio Basagoiti | Conservatism Christian democracy |
13.9% | 13 | |
[60] | |
| EH Bildu | List
|
.jpg) |
Laura Mintegi | Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism |
9.6% [a] |
5 | |
[36] [37] | |
| EB–B | List
|
 |
Raquel Modubar | Socialism Social democracy Democratic socialism |
3.5% | 1 | |
[61] | |
| UPyD | List |
.jpg) |
Gorka Maneiro | Social liberalism Radical centrism |
2.1% | 1 | |
[62] | |
| IU–LV | List
|
.jpg) |
Mikel Arana | Socialism Communism |
Did not contest | |
[63] [64] [65] | ||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 regional election | 21 Oct 2012 | N/a | 64.0 | 34.2 27 |
18.9 16 |
11.6 10 |
[b] | [b] | 1.5 0 |
1.9 1 |
24.7 21 |
2.7 0 |
9.5 |
| Ipsos/EITB[p 1][p 2] | 21 Oct 2012 | 8,987 | ? | 32.6 24/27 |
16.9 13/15 |
11.4 9/11 |
[b] | [b] | 1.5 0 |
1.4 0/1 |
28.9 23/26 |
2.9 0/1 |
3.7 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 3] | 2–13 Oct 2012 | 1,020 | 64.5 | 33.2 24/27 |
18.9 14/16 |
13.0 10/12 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.5 1 |
26.4 20/22 |
3.7 2 |
6.8 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 4] | 2–11 Oct 2012 | 1,200 | ? | 34.7 28 |
14.6 12 |
10.8 9 |
[b] | [b] | 0.0 0 |
2.2 1 |
28.5 24 |
3.2 1 |
6.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 5] | 8–10 Oct 2012 | 1,050 | ? | 33.3 24/26 |
20.2 16/18 |
14.7 12 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.1 0 |
24.5 20 |
2.8 1 |
8.8 |
| MyWord/Cadena SER[p 6][p 7] | 3–10 Oct 2012 | 1,206 | ? | 32.3 25/27 |
18.8 14/15 |
10.5 9/10 |
[b] | [b] | 1.5 0 |
5.8 1 |
25.6 23/25 |
1.8 0 |
6.7 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 8] | 1–10 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 35.2 28 |
14.6 12 |
10.4 8 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.2 1 |
28.3 24 |
3.3 2 |
6.9 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 9] | 30 Sep–9 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 34.4 28 |
15.3 12 |
10.8 9 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.1 1 |
28.2 24 |
3.2 1 |
6.2 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 10] | 29 Sep–8 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 34.6 27 |
15.3 13 |
11.2 10 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.0 1 |
27.9 23 |
3.1 1 |
6.7 |
| Ikerfel/El Correo[p 11] | 6–7 Oct 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 33.1 25/27 |
18.5 15/16 |
12.5 10 |
[b] | [b] | – | 1.9 0/1 |
26.3 21 |
4.5 2/3 |
6.8 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 12] | 28 Sep–7 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 32.7 27 |
15.6 13 |
11.5 9 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.6 1 |
27.2 23 |
3.8 2 |
5.5 |
| Ikertalde/GPS[p 13] | 1–5 Oct 2012 | 2,254 | 69.0 | 33.4 24/26 |
19.4 16/17 |
11.4 10 |
[b] | [b] | 0.7 0 |
1.5 1 |
26.6 21/23 |
2.6 0/1 |
6.8 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 14] | 25 Sep–5 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 32.2 26 |
16.8 13 |
11.8 10 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.1 1 |
27.4 24 |
3.0 1 |
4.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 15] | 25 Sep–4 Oct 2012 | 510 | ? | 32.1 24/25 |
17.9 14 |
13.3 10/12 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.8 1 |
28.0 21/23 |
? 3 |
4.1 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 16] | 24 Sep–4 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 33.4 26 |
14.9 13 |
12.4 11 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.0 0 |
27.2 23 |
3.4 2 |
6.2 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 17][p 18] | 2–3 Oct 2012 | 1,350 | 68.3 | 33.9 24/25 |
19.8 16/17 |
14.2 11/13 |
[b] | [b] | 1.1 0 |
1.3 0 |
27.1 21/22 |
1.9 0 |
6.8 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 19] | 23 Sep–3 Oct 2012 | ? | ? | 35.8 26 |
15.8 14 |
13.8 11 |
[b] | [b] | – | 1.7 1 |
27.4 22 |
3.6 1 |
8.4 |
| Aztiker/Gara[p 20] | 22 Sep–2 Oct 2012 | 1,030 | ? | 35.1 26 |
16.3 14 |
14.1 11 |
[b] | [b] | 0.2 0 |
1.7 0 |
26.8 22 |
3.8 2 |
8.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 15] | 30 Sep 2012 | ? | ? | 31.5 23/25 |
18.1 14/15 |
13.7 11/13 |
[b] | [b] | – | 3.1 0 |
27.5 22/24 |
? 0/1 |
4.0 |
| CIS[p 21][p 22] | 10–25 Sep 2012 | 2,898 | ? | 36.2 27 |
17.2 14 |
10.7 9/10 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.0 0 |
25.1 21/22 |
4.2 3 |
11.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 23] | 23 Sep 2012 | ? | ? | 31.5 23/25 |
18.2 14/15 |
13.8 11/13 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.5 0 |
27.7 21/24 |
? 1/2 |
3.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 24] | 16 Sep 2012 | ? | ? | 32.0 23/26 |
18.6 14/16 |
14.3 11/13 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.9 1 |
26.7 21/22 |
? 1 |
5.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 3] | 9 Sep 2012 | ? | ? | 31.8 | 18.9 | 14.2 | [b] | [b] | – | 2.8 | 26.3 | – | 5.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 25] | 21–25 Aug 2012 | 570 | 64.3 | 31.2 22/25 |
19.0 14/16 |
14.1 11/13 |
[b] | [b] | – | 3.1 1 |
26.5 20/22 |
3.5 2 |
4.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 26] | 22–24 Aug 2012 | 900 | ? | 33.7 24/25 |
21.4 17 |
12.8 12 |
[b] | [b] | – | 1.1 0 |
27.3 21/22 |
2.3 0 |
6.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 27] | 21–23 Jun 2012 | 750 | 64.3 | 30.6 22/24 |
19.5 15/16 |
16.7 14 |
[b] | [b] | – | 2.3 0 |
25.1 21/22 |
3.8 1/2 |
5.5 |
| Low Cost/Libertad Digital[p 28] | 11–18 Jun 2012 | 750 | ? | 30.9 25/26 |
22.8 18/19 |
14.6 10 |
[b] | [b] | – | 1.5 0 |
23.8 19/20 |
3.5 0/3 |
8.8 |
| Ikerfel/El Correo[p 29][p 30] | 7–14 Jun 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 34.6 24/26 |
18.8 14/17 |
12.1 11/12 |
[b] | [b] | – | 1.2 0 |
25.8 19/21 |
4.7 2 |
8.8 |
| CPS/EHU[p 31] | 8–24 May 2012 | 1,200 | 65 | 32.1 23/24 |
20.0 17 |
14.0 12/13 |
[b] | [b] | 2.0 0 |
1.8 0 |
24.7 22 |
3.0 0 |
7.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 32] | 7–12 May 2012 | 900 | 64.3 | 29.8 22/23 |
19.1 15 |
16.5 14 |
[c] | [c] | – | – | 27.2 22/23 |
3.5 1/2 |
2.6 |
| Gara[p 33][p 34] | 23 Apr 2012 | 1,875 | ? | 29.0 22 |
15.0 12 |
16.0 15 |
1.0 0 |
[c] | – | – | 28.0 24 |
5.0 2 |
1.0 |
| CPS/EHU[p 35] | 25 Nov–19 Dec 2011 | 1,200 | 65 | 30.7 22/23 |
18.3 16 |
15.4 14 |
[c] | [c] | – | 1.8 0 |
24.7 19/22 |
3.1 0/3 |
6.0 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 67.3 | 27.4 (20) |
21.6 (18) |
17.8 (15) |
[c] | [c] | – | 1.8 (0) |
24.1 (20) |
3.7 (2) |
3.3 |
| 2011 foral elections | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 63.5 | 30.9 (24) |
16.8 (13) |
14.3 (13) |
3.5 (1) |
[d] | 3.3 (2) |
0.8 (0) |
25.3 (22) |
– | 5.6 |
| 2011 local elections | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 63.6 | 30.1 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 2.8 | [d] | 3.3 | 0.6 | 25.6 | – | 4.5 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 36][p 37][p 38] | 27–29 Jan 2011 | 1,100 | 71.7 | 36.7 29/30 |
24.4 20/21 |
12.4 11/12 |
5.4 3/4 |
2.3 0 |
2.8 0 |
1.5 1 |
12.8 9/10 |
– | 12.3 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 39][p 40] | 1–5 Mar 2010 | ? | 67.7 | 38.9 31 |
29.3 24 |
13.3 12 |
9.5 5 |
3.3 1 |
2.2 1 |
1.8 1 |
– | – | 9.6 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 41.2 | 28.5 (21) |
27.8 (24) |
16.0 (14) |
5.6 (4) |
1.8 (0) |
1.5 (0) |
16.0 (12) |
– | 0.7 | |
| 2009 regional election | 1 Mar 2009 | N/a | 64.7 | 38.1 30 |
30.4 25 |
13.9 13 |
6.0 4 |
3.6 1 |
3.5 1 |
2.1 1 |
– | – | 7.7 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 regional election[e] | 21 Oct 2012 | N/a | 22.3 | 12.3 | 7.6 | [b] | [b] | 1.0 | 1.3 | 16.1 | 1.8 | N/a | 34.2 | 6.2 |
| MyWord/Cadena SER[p 7] | 3–10 Oct 2012 | 1,206 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 5.9 | [b] | [b] | 2.0 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 40.0 | 7.5 | 2.7 |
| CIS[p 21] | 10–25 Sep 2012 | 2,898 | 20.5 | 9.5 | 2.5 | [b] | [b] | – | 0.5 | 14.6 | 3.0 | 28.1 | 16.3 | 5.9 |
| 2011 general election[e] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 18.8 | 14.8 | 12.2 | [c] | [c] | – | 1.2 | 16.5 | 2.5 | N/a | 30.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011 foral elections | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 19.4 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 2.2 | [d] | 2.1 | 0.5 | 15.9 | – | N/a | 36.5 | 3.5 |
| 2009 EP election[e] | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 11.9 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.7 | – | N/a | 58.0 | 0.3 | |
| 2009 regional election[e] | 1 Mar 2009 | N/a | 22.3 | 17.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | – | – | N/a | 35.7 | 4.5 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 21] | 10–25 Sep 2012 | 2,898 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 17.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 34.9 | 7.6 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 21] | 10–25 Sep 2012 | 2,898 | 59.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 9.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 26.4 | 49.9 |
Preferred Lehendakari
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) | 384,766 | 34.16 | −3.98 | 27 | −3 | |
| Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)1 | 277,923 | 24.67 | +15.05 | 21 | +16 | |
| Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) | 212,809 | 18.89 | −11.47 | 16 | −9 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 130,584 | 11.59 | −2.36 | 10 | −3 | |
| United Left–The Greens: Plural Left (IU–LV) | 30,318 | 2.69 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 21,539 | 1.91 | −0.21 | 1 | ±0 | |
| United Left–Greens (EB–B) | 17,345 | 1.54 | −1.93 | 0 | −1 | |
| Equo Greens–Basque Ecologists (Equo)2 | 11,625 | 1.03 | +0.49 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB/AZ) | 11,480 | 1.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA/ATTKAA) | 4,066 | 0.36 | +0.22 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Hartos.org (Hartos.org) | 2,831 | 0.25 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 2,476 | 0.22 | −0.07 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 1,113 | 0.10 | +0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 821 | 0.07 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI) | 778 | 0.07 | −0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) | 684 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Basque Communists–Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (EK–PCPE) | 442 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Welcome (Ongi Etorri) | 101 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Community Integration Party (PYC) | 59 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 14,640 | 1.30 | +0.20 | |||
| Total | 1,126,400 | 75 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 1,126,400 | 99.18 | +7.98 | |||
| Invalid votes | 9,168 | 0.81 | −7.98 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,135,568 | 63.96 | −0.72 | |||
| Abstentions | 639,783 | 36.04 | +0.72 | |||
| Registered voters | 1,775,351 | |||||
| Sources[54][66][67] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||