2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
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The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the single U.S. Representative from South Dakota's At-large congressional district, comprising the entire state of South Dakota. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.
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November 6, 2012
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 County results Noem: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Varilek: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kristi Noem, incumbent U.S. Representative[1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Matt Varilek, staffer for Senator Tim Johnson[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Jeff Barth, Minnehaha County Commissioner[1]
Declined
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former U.S. Representative[3]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Matt Varilek | 21,759 | 71.9 | |
| Democratic | Jeff Barth | 8,494 | 28.1 | |
| Total votes | 30,253 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem (R) |
Matt Varilek (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling[5] | October 31 – November 4, 2012 | 633 | ± 3.90% | 54% | 41% | 5% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling[6] | October 28–31, 2012 | 671 | ± 3.78% | 50% | 44% | 5% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling[7] | August 29 – September 6, 2012 | 509 | ± 4.34% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling[8] | July 19–23, 2012 | 541 | ± 4.21% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kristi Noem (R) |
Stephanie H. Sandlin (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[9] | January 28–30, 2011 | 1,045 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
Endorsements
Matt Varilek (D)
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Emerging Races" Program[10]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[12] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[13] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[15] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[16] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[17] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem (incumbent) | 207,640 | 57.45% | +9.33% | |
| Democratic | Matt Varilek | 153,789 | 42.55% | −3.34% | |
| Total votes | 361,429 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beadle (Largest city: Huron)
- Bon Homme (Largest city: Springfield)
- Brule (Largest city: Chamberlain)
- Corson (Largest city: McLaughlin)
- Deuel (Largest city: Clear Lake)
- Grant (Largest city: Milbank)
- Jerauld (Largest city: Wessington Springs)
- Kingsbury (Largest city: De Smet)
- Lake (Largest city: Madison)
- Miner (Largest city: Howard)
- Minnehaha (Largest city: Sioux Falls)
- Moody (Largest city: Flandreau)
- Sanborn (Largest city: Woonsocket)
- Brookings (largest city: Brookings)
- Aurora (largest city: Plankinton)
- Bennett (largest city: Martin)
- Clark (largest city: Clark)
- Spink (largest city: Redfield)
- Mellette (Largest city: White River)
