2012 United States Senate election in Maryland
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2012 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election,other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Ben Cardin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Dan Bongino and independent Rob Sobhani.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||||||||||||
November 6, 2012
| |||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 68.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Cardin:
30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bongino: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Sobhani: 30–40% 40–50% Tie: 30–40% 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Raymond Blagmon[1]
- Ben Cardin, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
- J.P. Cusick[1]
- Christopher Garner, engineer and businessman[3]
- Ralph Jaffe, former political science teacher[1]
- C. Anthony Muse, state senator[4]
- Blaine Taylor
- Ed Tinus
- Lih Young, perennial candidate[1]
Results
Cardin—80–90%
Cardin—70–80%
Cardin—60–70%
Cardin—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 240,704 | 74.2 | |
| Democratic | C. Anthony Muse | 50,807 | 15.7 | |
| Democratic | Chris Garner | 9,274 | 2.9 | |
| Democratic | Raymond Levi Blagmon | 5,909 | 1.8 | |
| Democratic | J. P. Cusick | 4,778 | 1.5 | |
| Democratic | Blaine Taylor | 4,376 | 1.3 | |
| Democratic | Lih Young | 3,993 | 1.2 | |
| Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 3,313 | 1.0 | |
| Democratic | Ed Tinus | 1,064 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 324,218 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Joseph Alexander
- Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent[8]
- Bro Broadus
- William Capps[1]
- Richard Douglas, attorney and former deputy assistant secretary of defense[9]
- Rick Hoover[1]
- David Jones[10]
- John B. Kimble, behavioral scientist and perennial candidate
- Brian Vaeth, retired firefighter
- Corrogan R. Vaughn, perennial candidate[1]
Declined
- Bob Ehrlich, former governor of Maryland[11] and nominee for governor in 2010[12]
- Brian Murphy, candidate for governor in 2010[13]
- Eric Wargotz, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[14]
Results
Bongino—40–50%
Bongino—<40%
Douglas—<40%
Douglas—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Bongino | 68,597 | 33.6 | |
| Republican | Richard J. Douglas | 57,776 | 28.3 | |
| Republican | Joseph Alexander | 18,171 | 8.9 | |
| Republican | Bro Broadus | 11,020 | 5.4 | |
| Republican | Rick Hoover | 10,787 | 5.3 | |
| Republican | John B. Kimble | 10,506 | 5.1 | |
| Republican | David Jones | 8,380 | 4.1 | |
| Republican | Corrogan R. Vaughn | 8,158 | 4.0 | |
| Republican | William Thomas Capps, Jr. | 7,092 | 3.5 | |
| Republican | Brian Vaeth | 3,781 | 1.9 | |
| Total votes | 204,268 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Dean Ahmad (Libertarian), president of the Minaret of Freedom Institute
- Brandy Baker (Socialist, certified write-in)[15]
- Daniel Bongino (Republican), former United States Secret Service agent
- Ben Cardin (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator and former U.S. representative
- S. Rob Sobhani (independent), chairman and CEO of Caspian Group Holdings
Debates
A candidates' forum was held on Baltimore's WOLB radio on October 24, including Senator Ben Cardin, Rob Sobhani, Dean Ahmad and Daniel Bongino.[16][17]
An October 30 debate at Salisbury University would have featured those candidates and independent Ed Tinus,[18] but was cancelled in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.[19]
Campaign
In 2006, then-U.S. Representative Ben Cardin defeated then-Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele 54%–44%. Eric Wargotz, the Republican nominee in 2010, had considered entering the race but ultimately did not.
In both 2009 and 2010, National Journal magazine rated Cardin as tied for most liberal senator, based on his voting record. As of June 30, Cardin had $1.8 million in his campaign account.[20]
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Cardin (D) | $3,758,957 | $2,248,013 | $1,896,329 | $0 |
| Daniel Bongino (R) | $188,419 | $172,509 | $15,909 | $0 |
| Dean Ahmad (L) | $8,565 | $6,288 | $2,276 | $0 |
| S. Rob Sobhani (I) | $6,472,715 | $6,043,030 | $429,683 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21][22][23][24] | ||||
Top contributors
| Ben Cardin | Daniel Bongino | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exelon Corp | $39,250 | NORPAC | $21,730 | |
| News Corp | $35,375 | Avjet Corp | $5,000 | |
| Johns Hopkins University | $30,300 | Citizens United | $5,000 | |
| Comcast Corp | $26,123 | Oheka Castle | $5,000 | |
| Ernst & Young | $26,000 | Miller & Long Concrete Construction | $4,891 | |
| Gallagher, Evelius & Jones | $24,250 | Perinatal Center of Oklahoma | $4,790 | |
| Venable LLP | $23,750 | NYPD | $3,950 | |
| DLA Piper | $23,250 | Fitzgerald Shamrock Restaurant | $3,947 | |
| DaVita Inc. | $22,000 | Davidsonville Veterinary Clinic | $3,250 | |
| Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $20,750 | Constitutional Conservatives Fund | $2,500 | |
Top industries
| Ben Cardin | Daniel Bongino | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $441,242 | Retired | $20,152 | |
| Real estate | $354,920 | General contractors | $8,641 | |
| Health professionals | $317,509 | Civil servants/public officials | $8,135 | |
| Financial institutions | $301,161 | Health professionals | $6,540 | |
| Pro-Israel | $236,792 | Real estate | $5,700 | |
| Retired | $222,410 | Republican/Conservative | $5,500 | |
| Lobbyists | $213,559 | Lodging/tourism | $5,000 | |
| Insurance | $191,300 | Computers/Internet | $4,110 | |
| Leadership PACs | $191,000 | Food industry & beverage | $3,947 | |
| Entertainment industry | $188,806 | Financial institutions | $3,800 | |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[27] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[29] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Cardin (D) |
Daniel Bongino (R) |
Rob Sobhani (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies[31] | September 17–23, 2012 | 813 | ±3.5% | 50% | 22% | 21% | — | 7% |
| The Washington Post[32] | October 11–15, 2012 | 843 | ±4% | 53% | 22% | 14% | 2% | 9% |
| OpinionWorks[33] | October 20–23, 2012 | 801 | ±3.5% | 50% | 24% | 14% | 2% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Cardin (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[34] | July 10–12, 2010 | 569 | ±4.1% | 51% | 33% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Cardin (D) |
Michael Steele (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[34] | July 10–12, 2010 | 569 | ±4.1% | 58% | 28% | — | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 1,474,028 | 55.98% | +1.77% | |
| Republican | Dan Bongino | 693,291 | 26.33% | −17.86% | |
| Independent | Rob Sobhani | 430,934 | 16.37% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Dean Ahmad | 32,252 | 1.22% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,729 | 0.10% | +0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 2,633,234 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Ben Cardin
Democratic |
Dan Bongino
Republican |
Rob Sobhani
Independent |
Dean Ahmad
Libertarian |
Other
Other |
Margin | Total
votes cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Allegany | 9507 | 33.38% | 14667 | 51.50% | 3920 | 14.60% | 367 | 1.29% | 18 | 0.06% | -5160 | -18.12% | 28479 |
| Anne Arundel | 108328 | 42.62% | 93804 | 36.90% | 48503 | 19.08% | 3320 | 1.31% | 241 | 0.09% | 14524 | 5.71% | 254196 |
| Baltimore | 198290 | 52.55% | 95297 | 25.25% | 78887 | 20.91% | 4434 | 1.18% | 439 | 0.12% | 102993 | 27.29% | 377347 |
| Baltimore City | 189128 | 77.21% | 16931 | 6.91% | 35724 | 14.58% | 2930 | 1.20% | 232 | 0.09% | 172197 | 62.63%[b] | 244945 |
| Calvert | 17296 | 39.36% | 17272 | 39.31% | 8806 | 20.04% | 523 | 1.19% | 43 | 0.10% | 24 | 0.05% | 43940 |
| Caroline | 4423 | 33.93% | 5898 | 45.24% | 2575 | 19.75% | 122 | 0.94% | 18 | 0.14% | -1475 | -11.31% | 13036 |
| Carroll | 22837 | 26.69% | 41795 | 48.86% | 19733 | 23.07% | 1118 | 1.31% | 66 | 0.08% | -18958 | -22.16% | 85549 |
| Cecil | 14994 | 36.41% | 18452 | 44.81% | 7137 | 17.33% | 549 | 1.33% | 47 | 0.11% | -3458 | -8.40% | 41179 |
| Charles | 42638 | 58.24% | 16752 | 22.88% | 13036 | 17.81% | 721 | 0.98% | 58 | 0.08% | 25886 | 35.36% | 73205 |
| Dorchester | 6552 | 44.29% | 5526 | 37.36% | 2567 | 17.35% | 132 | 0.89% | 16 | 0.11% | 1026 | 6.94% | 14793 |
| Frederick | 45161 | 39.80% | 48563 | 42.80% | 17913 | 15.79% | 1720 | 1.52% | 112 | 0.10% | -3402 | -3.00% | 113469 |
| Garrett | 3448 | 27.87% | 8263 | 66.79% | 492 | 3.98% | 163 | 1.32% | 6 | 0.05% | -4815 | -38.92% | 12372 |
| Harford | 43274 | 35.04% | 45404 | 36.77% | 33148 | 26.84% | 1535 | 1.24% | 126 | 0.10% | -2130 | -1.72% | 123487 |
| Howard | 80265 | 53.66% | 42892 | 28.67% | 23815 | 15.92% | 2462 | 1.65% | 148 | 0.10% | 37373 | 24.98% | 149582 |
| Kent | 4312 | 44.45% | 3608 | 37.20% | 1660 | 17.11% | 88 | 0.91% | 32 | 0.33% | 704 | 7.26% | 9700 |
| Montgomery | 293715 | 66.21% | 94010 | 21.19% | 49611 | 11.18% | 5790 | 1.31% | 455 | 0.10% | 199705 | 45.02% | 443581 |
| Prince George's | 305771 | 81.40% | 25080 | 6.68% | 40937 | 10.90% | 3521 | 0.94% | 339 | 0.09% | 280691 | 70.50%[b] | 375648 |
| Queen Anne's | 7385 | 30.13% | 12540 | 51.15% | 4344 | 17.72% | 217 | 0.89% | 28 | 0.11% | -5155 | -21.03% | 24514 |
| St. Mary's | 17566 | 38.29% | 19480 | 42.46% | 8065 | 17.58% | 723 | 1.58% | 42 | 0.09% | -1914 | -4.17% | 45876 |
| Somerset | 4686 | 46.70% | 3568 | 35.56% | 1682 | 16.76% | 86 | 0.86% | 13 | 0.13% | 1118 | 11.14% | 10035 |
| Talbot | 8100 | 40.46% | 8986 | 44.89% | 2729 | 13.63% | 173 | 0.86% | 32 | 0.16% | -886 | -4.43% | 20020 |
| Washington | 19702 | 32.56% | 28161 | 46.53% | 11788 | 19.48% | 824 | 1.36% | 41 | 0.07% | -8459 | -13.98% | 60516 |
| Wicomico | 16974 | 41.41% | 15072 | 36.77% | 8426 | 20.56% | 452 | 1.10% | 63 | 0.15% | 1902 | 4.64% | 40987 |
| Worcester | 9676 | 36.21% | 11270 | 42.18% | 5436 | 20.34% | 282 | 1.06% | 56 | 0.21% | -1594 | -5.97% | 26720 |
| Total | 1474028 | 55.98% | 693291 | 26.33% | 430934 | 16.37% | 32252 | 1.22% | 2729 | 0.10% | 780737 | 28.90% | 2633234 |
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Annapolis)
- Calvert (largest municipality: Chesapeake Beach)
- Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
- Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
- Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)
- Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)