2012 United States Senate election in Utah
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh and final term against the Democratic candidate, former state senator and IBM executive Scott Howell, in a rematch of the 2000 Senate election, with Hatch doing slightly better than in 2000.[2]
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November 6, 2012
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| Turnout | 55.4% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Hatch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Howell: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.4% of the vote against Pete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah. Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory of Mike Lee over Bob Bennett in the 2010 election.[3]
Republican nomination
Convention
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Aalders, radio talk show host and former business manager[4]
- Dale Ash, retired sales manager[4]
- Arlan Brunson, small business owner[5]
- David Chiu[6]
- Kevin Fisk, small business owner[4]
- Jeremy Friedbaum, small business owner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[4]
- Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. Senator[7]
- Chris Herrod, state representative[8]
- William "Dub" Lawrence[6]
- Dan Liljenquist, former state senator[9]
Declined
- Jason Chaffetz, U.S. representative[10][11]
- Jon Huntsman, Jr., former Ambassador to China, former Governor of Utah, former Ambassador to Singapore and candidate for President in 2012[12]
- David Kirkham, co-founder of the Utah tea party[13]
- Morgan Philpot, former state representative and 2010 congressional candidate[14]
- Mark Shurtleff, Utah Attorney General[15]
Campaign
In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary for Utah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010, Mike Lee defeated Bob Bennett in the 2010 Utah Senate election.[3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. Senator Mike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary.[16] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until after Labor Day of 2011.[17]
In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin endorsed Hatch.[18] The fiscally conservative 501(c)4 organization Club for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, State Children's Health Insurance Program, No Child Left Behind Act, Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election.[19] In an interview with Politico, Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor of Equal Opportunity to Serve Act and the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993.[20] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.
Endorsements
Individuals
- Ken Blackwell, member of board of directors of Club for Growth and former Ohio Secretary of State[21]
- Sam Brownback, governor of Kansas and former U.S. senator (R-KS)[21]
- Mike Crapo, U.S. senator (R-ID)[21]
- C. Boyden Gray, co-chairman of FreedomWorks Foundation Board and former White House Counsel[21]
- Sean Hannity, prominent conservative radio and television host, author, and political commentator[21]
- Hugh Hewitt, conservative talk radio host[21]
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[21]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, former president and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012[21]
- Sal Russo, co-founder of Tea Party Express[21]
Organizations
Individuals
- Stuart Adams, state senator[23]
- Casey Anderson, state senator[23]
- Kevin Cromer, former state representative[23]
- Margaret Dayton, state senator[23]
- Lyle W. Hillyard, state senator[23]
- Dave Hinkins, state senator[23]
- Michelle Malkin, conservative author and commentator[23]
- Wayne L. Niederhauser, state senator[23]
- Ralph Okerlund, state senator[23]
- Aaron Osmond, state senator[23]
- Stuart Reid, state senator[23]
- Howard A. Stephenson, state senator[23]
- Jerry Stevenson, state senator[23]
- Stephen H. Urquhart, state senator[23]
- Todd Weiler, state senator[23]
Organizations
Polling
In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% chose Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided.[26] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% chose Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod.[27]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Orrin Hatch | 2,243 | 57.25 | |
| Republican | Dan Liljenquist | 1,108 | 28.28 | |
| Republican | Chris Herrod | 421 | 10.75 | |
| Republican | Tim Aalders | 78 | 1.99 | |
| Republican | Dale Ash | 18 | 0.46 | |
| Republican | David Chiu | 17 | 0.43 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Friedbaum | 15 | 0.38 | |
| Republican | Loy Arlan Brunson | 14 | 0.36 | |
| Republican | Kevin Fisk | 3 | 0.08 | |
| Republican | Dub Lawrence | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Total votes | 3,918 | 100 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Orrin Hatch | 2,313 | 59.19 | |
| Republican | Dan Liljenquist | 1,595 | 40.81 | |
| Total votes | 3,908 | 100 | ||
Primary
Candidates
- Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. senator
- Dan Liljenquist, former state senator
Campaign
After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist.[28]
Endorsements
Individuals
- Scott Anderson, CEO of Zions Bank[21]
- Norm Bangerter, former governor of Utah[21]
- LaVell Edwards, former football coach of Brigham Young University[21]
- Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine and CEO of Forbes Inc.[21]
- Sean Hannity, political commentator[21]
- James V. Hansen, former U.S. representative (R-UT)[21]
- Gary Herbert, governor of Utah[29]
- Truman Hunt, CEO of Nu Skin Enterprises[21]
- Josh James, CEO of DOMO[21]
- Jon Kyl, U.S. senator (R-AZ)[21]
- Fred Lampropoulos, CEO of Merit Medical Systems[21]
- Mark Levin, political commentator and President of Landmark Legal Foundation[21]
- Ron McBride, former football coach of Utah State University and Weber State University[21]
- Mike Noel, state representative[21]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee[21][30]
- Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican presidential nominee and former governor of Massachusetts[21]
- Sal Russo, co-leader of the Tea Party Express[21]
- Mark Shurtleff, state attorney general[21]
- Dave Steele, former state senator[21]
- Daniel W. Thatcher, state senator[21]
- Brett Tolman, former U.S. attorney for the District of Utah[21]
- John L. Valentine, state senator[21]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch |
Dan Liljenquist |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Data Points/Key Research[34] | June 12–19, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] | June 15–21, 2012 | 737 | ±3.6% | 60% | 32% | 8% |
Results
- Hatch—>90%
- Hatch—80–90%
- Hatch—70–80%
- Hatch—60–70%
- Hatch—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Orrin Hatch (incumbent) | 146,394 | 66.5% | |
| Republican | Dan Liljenquist | 73,668 | 33.5% | |
| Total votes | 220,062 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic nomination
Candidates
Declared
- Pete Ashdown, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006[37]
- Scott Howell, former state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000[38]
Results
Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary.[39]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Scott Howell | - | 63 | |
| Democratic | Pete Ashdown | - | 37 | |
| Total votes | - | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Bill Barron (Independent)[40]
- Daniel Geery (Justice)[40]
- Orrin Hatch (Republican), incumbent U.S. senator
- Scott Howell (Democratic), former state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000
- Shaun McCausland (Constitution)[40]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Howell (D) | $421,086 | $420,779 | $306 | $0 |
| Orrin Hatch (R) | $11,577,851 | $13,140,209 | $779,719 | $515,845 |
| William Barron (I) | $17,157 | $14,116 | $3,038 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[41][42][43] | ||||
Top contributors
| Scott Howell | Contribution | Orrin Hatch | Contribution | William Barron | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Union of Operating Engineers | $10,000 | OC Tanner Inc | $72,010 | Peace River Citrus Products | $2,000 |
| Altaview Orthodontics | $5,000 | Cancer Treatment Centers of America | $67,500 | Cirque Property | $1,000 |
| International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers | $5,000 | Cerberus Capital Management | $65,000 | ||
| International Association of Iron Workers | $5,000 | Fresenius Medical Care | $65,500 | ||
| Intermountain Healthcare National Education Association | $5,000 | Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $54,500 | ||
| Shurtleff Construction | $5,000 | Ernst & Young | $53,000 | ||
| St Mark's Hospital | $5,000 | PricewaterhouseCoopers | $42,008 | ||
| United Steelworkers | $5,000 | Herbalife International | $41,900 | ||
| Sutter Health | $4,500 | Marriott International | $39,500 | ||
| IBM Corporation | $3,150 | Apollo Global Management | $39,000 | ||
| Source: OpenSecrets[44] | |||||
Top industries
| Scott Howell | Contribution | Orrin Hatch | Contribution | William Barron | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired | $43,100 | Financial institutions | $1,113,746 | Retired | $4,050 |
| Health professionals | $17,000 | Pharmaceuticals/health products | $834,601 | Agribusiness | $2,000 |
| Building trade unions | $15,000 | Lobbyists | $508,567 | Real estate | $1,000 |
| Hospitals/nursing homes | $14,500 | Insurance | $495,968 | Education | $750 |
| Lawyers/law firms | $12,250 | Lawyers/law firms | $479,871 | Misc. business | $500 |
| Industrial unions | $10,000 | Health professionals | $447,415 | ||
| General contractors | $7,500 | Real estate | $412,394 | ||
| Automotive | $5,000 | Health services/HMOs | $396,132 | ||
| Public sector unions | $5,000 | Leadership PACs | $394,550 | ||
| High-tech industry | $4,900 | Oil & gas | $391,878 | ||
| Source: OpenSecrets[45] | |||||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[46] | Solid R | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] | Safe R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[48] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[49] | Safe R | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Scott Howell (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] | June 15–21, 2012 | 1,228 | ±2.8% | 63% | 29% | 8% |
| Utah State University[50] | October 8–13, 2012 | n/a | ±7.6% | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| Key Research[51] | October 9–13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Deseret News/KSL[52] | October 26 – November 1, 2012 | 870 | ±3.4% | 63% | 26% | 11% |
with Dan Liljenquist
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dan Liljenquist (R) |
Scott Howell (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[35] | June 15–21, 2012 | 1228 | ±2.8% | 48% | 34% | 18% |
with Jason Chaffetz
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Chaffetz (R) |
Jan Graham (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 53% | 34% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Chaffetz (R) |
Sam Granato (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 54% | 33% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Chaffetz (R) |
Jim Matheson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] | June 13–16, 2011 | 406 | ±5.0% | 46% | 45% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon[55] | August 8–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
with Orrin Hatch
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Jim Matheson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] | June 13–16, 2011 | 406 | ±5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon[55] | August 8–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Jan Graham (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 55% | 34% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Sam Granato (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | July 8–10, 2011 | 732 | ±3.6% | 56% | 31% | 13% |
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch |
Jason Chaffetz |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/KSL-TV[54] | June 13–16, 2011 | 406 | ±5.0% | 47% | 44% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 8–10, 2011 | 406 | ±4.9% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon[55] | August 8–10, 2011 | 305 | ±5.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Orrin Hatch (incumbent) | 657,608 | 65.31% | +2.95% | |
| Democratic | Scott Howell | 301,873 | 29.98% | −1.08% | |
| Constitution | Shaun McCausland | 31,905 | 3.17% | −0.60% | |
| Justice | Daniel Geery | 8,342 | 0.83% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bill Barron | 7,172 | 0.71% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,006,901 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
Hatch won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[58]
| District | Hatch | Howell | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69.84% | 25.63% | Rob Bishop |
| 2nd | 60.84% | 33.85% | Chris Stewart |
| 3rd | 70.35% | 25.14% | Jason Chaffetz |
| 4th | 59.92% | 35.62% | Jim Matheson |