2012 United States Senate election in Washington
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell won re-election to a third term by a significant margin, outperforming President Barack Obama's margin in the concurrent presidential election by 6%.
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November 6, 2012
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| Turnout | 64.1% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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   Cantwell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Baumgartner: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Maria Cantwell won re-election to a second term with 56.85% of the vote against Mike McGavick in the 2006 Washington U.S. Senate election.
Top-two primary election
Candidates
Democratic
- Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
- Timothy Wilson[3]
Republican
- Michael Baumgartner, state senator[4]
- Art Coday, physician[5]
- Chuck Jackson, merchant mariner[6][7]
- Mike the Mover, perennial candidate[6]
- Glen R. Stockwell, president of Washington State Economic Development Corporation[6][8]
Declined
- Bill Bryant, Port of Seattle Commission President[9]
- Clint Didier, former NFL football player (endorsed Coday)[10]
- Doc Hastings, U.S. Representative[11]
- Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative[12]
- John Koster, Snohomish County Councilman and candidate for the 2nd congressional district in 2010 (running for the U.S. House)[13]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative[14]
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative[15]
- Phillip Yin, Hong Kong–based anchor for Bloomberg Television[16]
Others
- Will Baker (Reform Party)[6]
Results
Cantwell
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Baumgartner
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Cantwell
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Baumgartner
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 772,058 | 55.66 | |
| Republican | Michael Baumgartner | 417,141 | 30.07 | |
| Republican | Art Coday | 79,727 | 5.75 | |
| Democratic | Timothy Wilson | 31,817 | 2.29 | |
| Republican | Chuck Jackson | 25,983 | 1.87 | |
| Republican | Glenn R. Stockwell | 25,793 | 1.86 | |
| Republican | Mike the Mover | 19,535 | 1.41 | |
| Reform | Will Baker | 15,005 | 1.08 | |
| Total votes | 1,387,059 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Michael Baumgartner (Republican), state senator
- Maria Cantwell (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Cantwell (D) | $8,032,254 | $6,355,260 | $2,176,258 | $2,171,350 |
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | $689,690 | $422,428 | $181,841 | $45,689 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18][19] | ||||
Top contributors
| Maria Cantwell | Contribution | Michael Baumgartner | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corp | $83,982 | Anderson Hay & Grain | $5,000 |
| EMILY's List | $77,900 | Columbia Management Systems, By Lar | $5,000 |
| Morgan & Morgan | $40,000 | Ignition Partners | $5,000 |
| League of Conservation Voters | $39,900 | Kvc Development Co | $5,000 |
| University of Washington | $35,900 | Acorn Campus Ventures | $4,000 |
| K&L Gates | $35,048 | Legacy LLC | $3,523 |
| Boeing Co. | $30,625 | Inland Empire Paper | $3,750 |
| Intellectual Ventures LLC | $27,250 | Savers Inc | $3,523 |
| McBee Strategic Consulting | $26,650 | Red Lion Hotels | $3,500 |
| Second Avenue Partners | $24,500 | National Cotton Council | $3,300 |
Top industries
| Maria Cantwell | Contribution | Michael Baumgartner | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $696,936 | Retired | $45,756 |
| Retired | $621,231 | Financial institutions | $10,000 |
| Lobbyists | $539,418 | Financial institutions | $310,487 |
| Financial institutions | $310,487 | Agribusiness | $9,550 |
| Computers/Internet | $206,970 | Health professionals | $6,150 |
| Real estate | $179,169 | Misc. finance | $4,250 |
| Health professionals | $169,937 | Mining | $4,25 |
| Business services | $167,629 | Timber/forest products | $3,750 |
| Casinos/gambling | $165,850 | General contractors | $3,000 |
| Entertainment industry | $136,457 | Real estate | $2,950 |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Endorsements
Maria Cantwell (D)
State legislators
- Dale Foreman, former majority leader of the Washington House of Representatives and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party (Republican)[26]
Newspapers
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Michael Baumgartner (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[28] | October 14 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 56.7% | 36.3% | 7.0% | Cantwell +20.4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Michael Baumgartner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[29] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| Survey USA[30] | January 12–16, 2012 | 617 | ±4.0% | 50% | 41% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[31] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | June 14–17, 2012 | 1,073 | ±3.0% | 51% | 35% | — | 14% |
| Survey USA[33] | July 16–17, 2012 | 630 | ±4.0% | 51% | 40% | — | 9% |
| Survey USA[34] | September 7–9, 2012 | 524 | ±4.4% | 54% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[35] | September 26, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 57% | 37% | 1% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[36] | September 28–30, 2012 | 540 | ±4.3% | 53% | 40% | — | 6% |
| The Washington Poll[37] | October 1–16, 2012 | 782 | ±3.5% | 58% | 35% | — | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[35] | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 9% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll[38] | October 18–31, 2012 | 632 | ±3.9% | 61% | 33% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | November 1–3, 2012 | 932 | ±3.2% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[31] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 50% | 36% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Cathy M. Rodgers (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[40] | July 27 – August 1, 2010 | 1,204 | ±2.8% | 49% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[41] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 50% | 31% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[40] | July 27 – August 1, 2010 | 1,204 | ±2.8% | 47% | 41% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[41] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[29] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 48% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Clint Didier (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[41] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 51% | 35% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Susan Hutchison (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[41] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[29] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 49% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Dino Rossi (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[41] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 53% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[31] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 53% | 41% | — | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 1,855,493 | 60.45% | +3.60% | |
| Republican | Michael Baumgartner | 1,213,924 | 39.55% | −0.38% | |
| Total votes | 3,069,417 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to DemocraticCounties that flipped from Democratic to Republican | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
By congressional district
Cantwell won eight of ten congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[44]
| District | Cantwell | Baumgartner | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57% | 43% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 63% | 37% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 53% | 47% | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
| 4th | 45% | 55% | Doc Hastings |
| 5th | 48% | 52% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 61% | 39% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 82% | 18% | Jim McDermott |
| 8th | 55% | 45% | Dave Reichert |
| 9th | 72% | 28% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 61% | 39% | Denny Heck |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.