2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia
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The 2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 6, 2012, to elect one of West Virginia's two members of the U.S. Senate for a six-year term. In a rematch of the 2010 special election, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a first full term against the Republican nominee, John Raese. Notably, Manchin outperformed Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election by 25.06 percentage points in vote share, and by 50.86 percentage points on margin. Manchin also won all but 3 counties, including 10 that he lost in 2010.
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November 6, 2012
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| Turnout | 46.3% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Manchin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Raese: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Robert Byrd held this seat in the U.S. Senate from 1959 until his death on June 28, 2010, after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1953, making him the longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterward, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as president pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death.[2]
After Byrd's death, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant initially announced that a special election would not be held until the regular election for the six-year term in 2012.[3] However, that special election was rescheduled to 2010 for it to coincide with the mid-term elections and to avoid having an interim appointee serving more than two years in the seat.
Governor Joe Manchin made a temporary appointment of Carte Goodwin to the vacant seat.[4] Goodwin was later replaced by Manchin who won the 2010 special election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2010[5]
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator[6]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Manchin (incumbent) | 163,891 | 79.94 | |
| Democratic | Sheirl Fletcher | 41,118 | 20.06 | |
| Total votes | 205,009 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
- John Raese, perennial candidate
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Raese | 88,510 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 88,510 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Bob Henry Baber (Mountain), former mayor of Richwood and candidate for governor in 2011[9]
- Joe Manchin (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator
- John Raese (Republican), businessman and perennial candidate[10]
Campaign
Raese filed a rematch against Manchin, arguing that he now had more material to criticize Manchin with, including that Manchin lost his longtime endorsement from the organization West Virginians for Life because of his vote against defunding Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider.[11] Another example is how he is undecided about whether or not to support Obama's re-election campaign.[12] Senior Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod commented in response, "His concern is about his own political well-being."[13] In addition, he voted against U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan's Republican budget.[14]
Raese wrote an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail, saying about Manchin, "Yes, he'll talk like a conservative and act like he's fiscally responsible to appeal to more moderate voters, but under that outward appearance of a lovable rube is the heart of a tax-and-spend liberal."[12]
Raese continued to make controversial statements. In April 2012, he equated smoking bans with Adolf Hitler's yellow badge. He said "in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say this is a smoke-free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. Okay? Remember Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody’s lapel, remember that? Same thing." That same day, he referred to President Franklin D. Roosevelt as "Fidel Roosevelt."[15] Raese didn't apologize for his statements on Hitler saying "I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit. I'm not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It's my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country."[16] He also called rocker Ted Nugent a "patriot" for criticizing President Barack Obama.[17]
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Manchin (D) | $9,467,003 | $7,678,708 | $1,788,297 | $0 |
| John Raese (R) | $1,607,740 | $1,610,493 | $4,679 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18] | ||||
Top contributors
| Joe Manchin | Contribution | John Raese | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $670,553 | Entertainment industry | $176,025 | |
| Mining industry | $647,548 | Leadership PACs | $143,190 | |
| Electric utilities | $392,100 | Retired | $109,513 | |
| Leadership PACs | $366,000 | Lawyers/law firms | $62,069 | |
| Health professionals | $287,498 | Special trade contractors | $59,450 | |
| Retired | $275,750 | Health professionals | $54,300 | |
| Pharmaceuticals/health products | $272,900 | Financial institutions | $52,695 | |
| Petroleum industry | $256,150 | Real estate | $45,875 | |
| Real estate | $228,350 | Petroleum industry | $35,900 | |
| Lobbyists | $200,689 | Republican/Conservative | $35,357 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[19] | ||||
Top industries
| Joe Manchin | Contribution | John Raese | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstEnergy Corporation | $136,950 | Greer Industries | $124,754 | |
| Mylan Laboratories Inc. | $127,500 | Mountaineer Contractors Inc. | $40,900 | |
| Mepco LLC | $64,400 | Senate Conservatives Fund | $37,690 | |
| Dominion Resources | $58,900 | Frankovitch, Anetakis, Colantonio & Simon | $25,650 | |
| Centene Corporation | $55,900 | Wv Radio | $22,550 | |
| American Electric Power | $55,750 | West Virginia Radio Corporation | $16,821 | |
| Jackson Kelly PLLC | $50,825 | Polino Contracting | $15,500 | |
| Drummond Company | $49,100 | Cleveland Brothers | $10,800 | |
| Patriot Coal Corporation | $48,400 | American Financial Group | $10,200 | |
| Boich Companies | $44,200 | Senate Majority Fund | $10,000 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[20] | ||||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Likely D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[23] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[24] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
John Raese (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | January 20–23, 2011 | 1,105 | ±2.9% | 60% | 31% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | April 21–24, 2011 | 850 | ±3.4% | 61% | 29% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[27] | September 1–4, 2011 | 708 | ±3.7% | 62% | 23% | — | 14% |
| R.L. Repass[28] | April 25–28, 2012 | 410 | ±4.8% | 74% | 22% | — | 4% |
| R.L. Repass[29] | August 22–25, 2012 | 401 | ±4.9% | 66% | 27% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Bill Maloney (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[30] | September 30 – October 2, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 60% | 29% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
David McKinley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | January 9–10, 2011 | 1,058 | ± | 53% | 41% | — | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | April 21–24, 2011 | 850 | ±3.4% | 63% | 25% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[27] | September 1–4, 2011 | 708 | ±3.7% | 60% | 24% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | January 20–23, 2011 | 1,105 | ±2.9% | 50% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | April 21–24, 2011 | 850 | ±3.4% | 48% | 40% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[27] | September 1–4, 2011 | 708 | ±3.7% | 52% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | September 30 – October 2, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 49% | 38% | — | 13% |
Results
In spite of the Republicans winning every county in the presidential election, Manchin carried 52 of West Virginia's 55 counties.[31]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Manchin (incumbent) | 399,908 | 60.57% | +7.10% | |
| Republican | John Raese | 240,787 | 36.47% | −6.93% | |
| Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 19,517 | 2.96% | +1.04% | |
| Total votes | 660,212 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Berkeley (largest municipality: Martinsburg)
- Hampshire (largest municipality: Romney)
- Morgan (largest municipality: Berkeley Springs)
- Hardy (largest municipality: Moorefield)
- Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser)
- Ritchie (largest municipality: Harrisville)
- Pendleton (largest municipality: Franklin)
- Tyler (largest municipality: Paden City)
- Upshur (largest municipality: Buckhannon)
- Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)
By congressional district
Manchin won all three congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.[33]
| District | Manchin | Raese | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58.31% | 38.94% | David McKinley |
| 2nd | 58.48% | 38.2% | Shelley Moore Capito |
| 3rd | 65.42% | 31.82% | Nick Rahall |