2014 Idaho gubernatorial election
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The 2014 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Idaho, concurrently with the election to Idaho's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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 Otter: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Balukoff: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican governor Butch Otter ran for election to a third consecutive term in office.[1] In primary elections held on May 20, 2014, Otter was renominated and the Democrats nominated businessman and president of the Boise School District Board of Trustees A.J. Balukoff. Otter defeated Balukoff and four Independent and Third Party challengers in the general election.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Walt Bayes, perennial candidate[2]
- Harley Brown, candidate for Idaho's 1st congressional district in 2000 and 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Boise in 2001[2]
- Russ Fulcher, state senator and future U.S. Representative from Idaho's 1st congressional district[3]
- Butch Otter, incumbent governor[1]
Declined
- Raúl Labrador, U.S. representative[4]
- Brad Little, Lieutenant Governor of Idaho[5]
- Tom Luna, Idaho Superintendent of Public Instruction[6]
- Rex Rammell, activist, veterinarian and candidate for governor in 2010[7]
- Lawrence Wasden, Attorney General of Idaho[8]
Endorsements
Russ Fulcher
- Raúl Labrador, U.S. representative[9]
Primary debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Butch Otter | Russ Fulcher | Harley Brown | Walt Bayes | |||||
| 1 | May 13, 2014 | IdahoPTV | Melissa Davlin | PBS | P | P | P | P |
Results
Otter
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Fulcher
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 79,779 | 51.4 | |
| Republican | Russ Fulcher | 67,694 | 43.6 | |
| Republican | Harley Brown | 5,084 | 3.3 | |
| Republican | Walt Bayes | 2,753 | 1.8 | |
| Total votes | 155,310 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- A.J. Balukoff, businessman and president of the Boise School District Board of Trustees[11]
- Terry Kerr, former Republican candidate for local office[2]
Declined
- Keith G. Allred, activist, mediator and nominee for governor in 2010[12]
- Cecil D. Andrus, former governor and former United States Secretary of the Interior[13]
- David H. Bieter, Mayor of Boise[14][11]
Endorsements
A.J. Balukoff
- Tommy Ahlquist, developer[15]
Results
Balukoff
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Kerr
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | A.J. Balukoff | 16,751 | 65.3 | |
| Democratic | Terry Kerr | 8,887 | 34.7 | |
| Total votes | 25,638 | 100 | ||
Constitution nomination
Nominated
- Steven Pankey, Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010.[2]
Libertarian nomination
Nominated
- John Bujak, former Canyon County prosecutor[17]
Independents
Declared
- Jill Humble, retired nurse educator and candidate for Boise City Council in 2013[2]
- Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[18]
General election
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Butch Otter | A.J. Balukoff | John Bujak | |||||
| 1 | September 24, 2014 | Twin Falls Times-News | Autumn Phillips | C-SPAN | A | P | P |
| 2 | October 29, 2014 | IdahoPTV | Melissa Davlin | PBS | P | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Solid R | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[21] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[22] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Butch Otter (R) |
A.J. Balukoff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[23] | October 30–November 2, 2014 | 1,001 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 37% | 10%[24] | 5% |
| 55% | 42% | — | 3% | ||||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[25] | October 16–23, 2014 | 575 | ± 6% | 53% | 35% | 2% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | October 9–12, 2014 | 522 | ± 4.3% | 39% | 35% | 12%[27] | 14% |
| 47% | 38% | — | 15% | ||||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[28] | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 594 | ± 5% | 57% | 33% | 1% | 9% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[29] | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 844 | ± 4% | 51% | 33% | 3% | 13% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[30] | July 5–24, 2014 | 691 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 34% | 4% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | May 28–29, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 36% | 8% | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 235,405 | 53.52% | −5.59% | |
| Democratic | A.J. Balukoff | 169,556 | 38.55% | +5.70% | |
| Libertarian | John Bujak | 17,884 | 4.07% | +2.77% | |
| Independent | Jill Humble | 8,801 | 2.00% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Steven Pankey | 5,219 | 1.19% | N/A | |
| Independent | Pro-Life | 2,870 | 0.65% | −0.20% | |
| Write-in | 95 | 0.02% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 439,830 | 100% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Otter won both congressional districts.[33]
| District | Otter | Balukoff | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57% | 35% | Raúl Labrador |
| 2nd | 50% | 42% | Mike Simpson |