2014 Tasmanian state election
State election in Australia
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The 2014 Tasmanian state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly.[1] The 16-year incumbent Labor government, led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, sought to win a fifth consecutive term in government, but was defeated by the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, in a landslide victory.[2] Also contesting the election was the Greens led by Nick McKim. The Palmer United Party made a significant effort in the election.
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15 March 2014
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All 25 seats in the House of Assembly 13 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 93.49% ( 0.36pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results of the election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Elections to the Legislative Council are conducted separately from House of Assembly elections. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Before the election, Hodgman had indicated that he would only govern in majority. ABC News election analyst Antony Green suggested Hodgman's promise could have come back to haunt him if Palmer United were to siphon off enough votes to deny the Liberals enough seats for a majority in their own right.[3] However, this became moot after the Liberals picked up an additional seat in every electorate except Denison, assuring Hodgman of a secure majority.[4] By 10:00 pm on election night, with the Liberals assured of winning at least 14 seats, Giddings conceded defeat on behalf of Labor.[5] Ultimately, the Liberals won 15 seats, a decisive majority.[6] Although the Liberals won just two more seats than necessary for a majority, it was considered a comprehensive victory under Tasmanian electoral practice of the time.[3]
Hodgman took office on 31 March 2014, becoming only the fifth non-Labor premier in 80 years and only the third to govern in majority.
Later, Giddings resigned as Labor party leader, and was succeeded by outgoing Deputy Premier Bryan Green on 31 March 2014.
Date
Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 7 April 2010.[7] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[8] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[9] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[10] making the last possible date 7 June 2014.
On 16 January 2014, Premier Lara Giddings announced she would recall Parliament for a single session on 28 January for the sole purpose of ensuring the validity of permits for the Bell Bay Pulp Mill. She said that once the legislation was passed, she would ask the Governor of Tasmania to prorogue the parliament and issue writs for an election to be held on 15 March. Giddings announced that Greens Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor would be expelled from cabinet as of 17 January, that the power sharing arrangement between Labor and the Greens was over, and that Labor would no longer govern with Greens in cabinet.[11]
The 2014 South Australian state election occurred on the same day for the third time in a row.
Background
The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and held the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. The Liberals were ahead on the popular vote by a margin of over 6,700 votes and both Premier David Bartlett and Opposition Leader Hodgman agreed that Hodgman thus had the right to form a government.[12] Labor went as far as to vote to relinquish power and advise the Governor, Peter Underwood, to summon Hodgman to be commissioned as the new premier.[13]
However, on 9 April, Underwood recommissioned Bartlett, detailing several reasons for his decision including incumbency and a higher chance of stability.[14] The Liberal Party tabled motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but these were unsuccessful.[15]
An interim cabinet was sworn in on 13 April, with Bartlett as Premier and Labor deputy leader Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier.[16] On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier.[17][18]
Retiring MPs
Labor
- Michael Polley (Lyons) – announced on 6 June 2013.[19]
- Graeme Sturges (Denison) – announced on 30 June 2013.[20]
Polling
Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[21]
| Political parties | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | ALP | Grn | PUP | Ind | Undecided | ||
| Feb 2014 | 44% | 20% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 13% | |
| Nov 2013 | 44% | 20% | 17% | 5% | 4% | 10% | |
| Sep 2013 | 46% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 4% | 12% | |
| May 2013 | 40% | 19% | 9% | – | 2% | 30% | |
| Feb 2013 | 44% | 23% | 11% | – | 3% | 29% | |
| Nov 2012 | 43% | 20% | 12% | – | 2% | 24% | |
| Aug 2012 | 38% | 18% | 17% | – | 2% | 25% | |
| May 2012 | 38% | 17% | 17% | – | 4% | 25% | |
| Feb 2012 | 39% | 19% | 14% | – | 3% | 25% | |
| Nov 2011 | 42% | 17% | 15% | – | 2% | 24% | |
| Aug 2011 | 44% | 16% | 14% | – | 4% | 22% | |
| May 2011 | 38% | 19% | 17% | – | 4% | 22% | |
| Feb 2011 | 36% | 20% | 20% | – | 2% | 23% | |
| Nov 2010 | 35% | 23% | 20% | – | 3% | 19% | |
| Aug 2010 | 30% | 29% | 23% | – | 3% | 14% | |
| May 2010 | 38% | 23% | 24% | – | 3% | 12% | |
| 2010 election | 39.0% | 36.9% | 21.6% | – | 2.5% | – | |
| Feb 2010 | 30% | 23% | 22% | – | 2% | 23% | |
| Polling conducted by EMRS. | |||||||
| Labor Giddings |
Liberal Hodgman |
Green McKim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2014 | 21% | 48% | 13% |
| Nov 2013 | 22% | 47% | 12% |
| Sep 2013 | 18% | 48% | 12% |
| May 2013 | 25% | 46% | 10% |
| Feb 2013 | 24% | 46% | 13% |
| Nov 2012 | 25% | 47% | 11% |
| Aug 2012 | 22% | 45% | 15% |
| May 2012 | 21% | 43% | 17% |
| Feb 2012 | 24% | 44% | 15% |
| Nov 2011 | 19% | 48% | 14% |
| Aug 2011 | 19% | 52% | 13% |
| May 2011 | 22% | 42% | 18% |
| Feb 2011 | 27% | 38% | 16% |
| Nov 2010 | 23%1 | 39% | 21% |
| Aug 2010 | 27%1 | 34% | 22% |
| May 2010 | 26%1 | 40% | 23% |
| 2010 election | – | – | – |
| Feb 2010 | 29%1 | 34% | 21% |
| Polling conducted by EMRS. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted". 1 David Bartlett. | |||
Results
 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
| Liberal | 167,051 | 51.22 |  12.23 | 15 | 5 | |
| Labor | 89,130 | 27.33 | 9.55 | 7 | 3 | |
| Greens | 45,098 | 13.83 | 7.78 | 3 | 2 | |
| Palmer United | 16,198 | 4.97 | New | 0 | New | |
| National | 2,655 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0 |  | |
| Christians | 1,215 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0 | | |
| Socialist Alliance | 664 | 0.20 | | 0 | | |
| Independents | 4,152 | 1.27 | 1.05 | 0 | | |
| Total | 326,163 | 100.00 | – | 25 | – | |
| Valid votes | 326,163 | 95.20 | ||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 16,432 | 4.80 | 0.30 | |||
| Total votes | 342,595 | 100.00 | – | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 366,442 | 93.49 | 0.36 | |||
| Source: TEC[22] | ||||||
Primary vote percentages by division
| Bass | Braddon | Denison | Franklin | Lyons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor Party | 23.27% | 23.24% | 33.79% | 28.61% | 27.69% |
| Liberal Party | 57.22% | 58.76% | 38.28% | 49.84% | 51.94% |
| Tasmanian Greens | 12.72% | 7.03% | 21.19% | 16.79% | 11.40% |
| Other | 6.79% | 10.97% | 6.74% | 4.76% | 8.97% |
Current distribution of seats
Damage to ballot papers
On 16 March, the day after the election, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced that a machine being used to open envelopes containing postal votes from the Denison electorate had been operated improperly, resulting in damage to 2,338 ballot papers. Whilst 2,175 ballot papers were repaired and admitted to the count, 163 papers were too badly damaged to be used and were counted as informal.[23]