2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
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The 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, the general Election Day in the United States, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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  Schatz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Cavasso: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye.[1] The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ended on January 3, 2017.
The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, 2014,[2] but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former state representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide. This was the first election since 1959 in which a non-Asian was elected to represent Hawaii in the U.S. Senate.
Background
Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[3][4] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[5] Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[6] He left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye, should he become incapacitated.[7]
Hawaii law allows the governor to appoint an interim senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Abercrombie appointed the lieutenant governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.[8]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Brian Evans, singer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004[9]
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative[10]
- Brian Schatz, incumbent U.S. senator[11]
Declined
- Gil Kahele, state senator
- Esther Kia'aina, deputy director of the Hawai'i Department of Land and Natural Resources[11]
Endorsements
Politicians
- Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City[12]
- Al Gore, former vice president of the United States[13]
- Tom Harkin, U.S. senator (D-IA)[14]
- Barack Obama, president of the United States[15]
- Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (D-NV)[15]
- John D. Waihee III, former governor of Hawaii[16]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)[17]
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[18]
- Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters[16]
- League of Conservation Voters[19]
- National Weather Service Employees Organization[18]
- Ocean Champions[18]
- Sierra Club[20]
Newspapers
Politicians
- Daniel Akaka, former U.S. senator (D-HI)[22]
- Irene Hirano, widow of Senator Inouye[23]
Individuals
Organizations
Debates
- Complete video of debate, July 14, 2014
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schatz |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QMark Research^[26] | February 2013 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 32% | 54% | — | 13% |
| Clarity Campaigns^[27] | June 10–11, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 35% | 46% | — | 19% |
| Civil Beat[28] | June 18–20 & 24, 2013 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 36% | 33% | 9% | 23% |
| Mellman Group*[29] | June 26–30, 2013 | 600 | ± ?% | 38% | 37% | — | 25% |
| Civil Beat[30] | October 9–10, 2013 | 549 | ± 4.2% | 38% | 36% | — | 26% |
| Mellman Group*[31] | January 7–13, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | — | 22% |
| Hawaii Poll[32] | January 29 – February 3, 2014 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 40% | 48% | — | 11% |
| Civil Beat[33] | February 12–15, 2014 | 643 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[34] | May 9–11, 2014 | 606 | ± 4% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Civil Beat[35] | May 18–19, 2014 | 520 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 39% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | July 23–24, 2014 | 410 | ± ? | 49% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Civil Beat[37] | July 24–28, 2014 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Hawaii Poll[38] | July 21–29, 2014 | 458 | ± 4.6% | 42% | 50% | — | 8% |
- * Internal poll for Brian Schatz campaign
- ^ Internal poll for Colleen Hanabusa campaign
Delay in election result
Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15.[39] The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished.[40][41] However, an analysis by Hawaii News Now showed that Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state.[42] Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner.[43] After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by a slightly increased margin of 1,769 votes.[44] Hanabusa conceded on August 19.[45]
Results
- Schatz—40–50%
- Hanabusa—40–50%
- Hanabusa—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 115,445 | 48.52% | |
| Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 113,663 | 47.77% | |
| Democratic | Brian Evans | 4,842 | 2.03% | |
| Democratic | Blank vote | 3,842 | 1.61% | |
| Democratic | Over vote | 150 | 0.06% | |
| Total votes | 237,942 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Charles Djou, former U.S. representative (running for HI-01)[50]
- Linda Lingle, former governor of Hawaii and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[51][52][53]
Results
Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that voted on August 15.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Campbell Cavasso | 25,874 | 58.61% | |
| Republican | John P. Roco | 4,425 | 10.02% | |
| Republican | Harry J. Friel, Jr. | 3,477 | 7.88% | |
| Republican | Eddie Pirkowski | 2,033 | 4.60% | |
| Republican | Blank vote | 8,306 | 18.81% | |
| Republican | Over vote | 34 | 0.08% | |
| Total votes | 44,149 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Michael Kokoski
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Michael Kokoski | 568 | 79.89% | |
| Libertarian | Blank vote | 143 | 20.11% | |
| Total votes | 711 | 100.00% | ||
Independent primary
Candidates
- Joy Allison
- Arturo Pacheco Reyes
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Joy Allison | 388 | 34.80% | |
| Independent | Arturo Pacheco Reyes | 184 | 16.50% | |
| Independent | Blank vote | 540 | 48.43% | |
| Independent | Over vote | 3 | 0.27% | |
| Total votes | 1,115 | 100.00% | ||
Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.[54]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[55] | Solid D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[57] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[58] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schatz (D) |
Campbell Cavasso (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[59] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,087 | ± 3% | 58% | 22% | 15% | 5% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[60] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 655 | ± 6% | 62% | 27% | 0% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports[61] | September 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 60% | 28% | 6% | 7% |
| Civil Beat[62] | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,055 | ± 3% | 62% | 25% | — | 13% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[63] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,319 | ± 4% | 78% | 22% | 0% | 0% |
| Ward Research[64] | October 11–18, 2014 | 605 | ± 4% | 71% | 20% | — | 10% |
| Civil Beat[65] | October 16–19, 2014 | 1,221 | ± 2.8% | 55% | 29% | — | 16% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[63] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,002 | ± 6% | 70% | 18% | 1% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 246,827 | 69.78% | −5.03% | |
| Republican | Campbell Cavasso | 98,006 | 27.70% | +6.13% | |
| Libertarian | Michael Kokoski | 8,941 | 2.52% | +1.72% | |
| Total votes | 353,774 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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Notes
- In December 2012, Schatz was appointed by Governor Neil Abercrombie to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Daniel Inouye.