2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating Republican former state legislator John Carroll.
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November 8, 2016
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   Schatz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[1][2] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[3]
Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[4] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.[5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Makani Christensen[6]
- Tutz Honeychurch[6]
- Arturo Reyes, perennial candidate[6]
- Brian Schatz, incumbent senator[5]
- Miles Shiratori[6]
Declined
- Colleen Hanabusa, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for HI-01)[7]
- Mark Takai, U.S. Representative[8] (died)
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[8]
Former
- Daniel Inouye, U.S. Senator from Hawaii (1963–2012), U.S. Representative for Hawaii's at-large congressional district (1959–1963). Inouye had declared his intent to run for re-election to a record tenth term, but he died in office on December 17, 2012.[9][1][2]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 162,891 | 86.17% | |
| Democratic | Makani Christensen | 11,898 | 6.29% | |
| Democratic | Miles Shiratori | 8,620 | 4.56% | |
| Democratic | Arturo Reyes | 3,819 | 2.02% | |
| Democratic | Tutz Honeychurch | 1,815 | 0.96% | |
| Total votes | 189,043 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former State Senator, former State Representative, nominee for US Senate in 2000 and perennial candidate[6]
- Karla Gottschalk, attorney[6]
- Eddie Pirkowski, perennial candidate[6]
- John Roco, perennial candidate[6]
Withdrew
Declined
- Cam Cavasso, former state representative and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, 2010, and 2014
- Charles Djou, former U.S. Representative (running for Mayor of Honolulu)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Carroll | 26,747 | 74.58% | |
| Republican | John P. Roco | 3,956 | 11.03% | |
| Republican | Karla Gottschalk | 3,045 | 8.49% | |
| Republican | Eddie Pirkowski | 2,114 | 5.89% | |
| Total votes | 35,862 | 100.00% | ||
Other primaries
Libertarian
Candidates
Declared
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Michael Kokoski | 909 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 909 | 100.00% | ||
Constitution
Candidates
Declared
- Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Joy Allison | 217 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 217 | 100.00% | ||
American Shopping
Candidates
Declared
- John Giuffre[6]
Results
General election
Schatz defeated Carroll on election day, winning his second election to the U.S. Senate and his first full term after being appointed to the seat in 2012 following the death of Daniel Inouye. This was his largest margin of victory, as he won over 4% more of the electorate in this election.
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Schatz (D)[14] | $3,316,074 | $1,195,572 | $3,074,380 |
| John Carroll (R) |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[17] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[18] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[19] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schatz (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[20] | November 1–7, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[21] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 67% | 29% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[22] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 435 | ± 4.6% | 68% | 26% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[23] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[24] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[25] | October 25–31, 2016 | 467 | ± 4.6% | 69% | 27% | 4% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 306,604 | 73.61% | +3.83% | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 92,653 | 22.24% | −5.46% | |
| Constitution | Joy Allison | 9,103 | 2.19% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Michael Kokowski | 6,809 | 1.63% | −0.89% | |
| American Shopping | John Giuffre | 1,393 | 0.33% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 416,562 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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By congressional district
Schatz won both congressional districts.[27]
| District | Schatz | Carroll | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 74% | 22% | Colleen Hanabusa |
| 2nd | 73% | 22% | Tulsi Gabbard |