2015 Aragonese regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Aragon
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in Aragon on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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24 May 2015
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All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 1,020,106 0.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 676,654 (66.3%) 1.6 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Aragon was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[3] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOA no later than 28 April 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 June 2015.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the Cortes's reconvening, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]
The Cortes of Aragon was officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOA, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.[6]
Electoral system
Voting for the Cortes was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[7] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[8][9]
The Cortes of Aragon had a minimum of 65 and a maximum of 80 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 67. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 distributed in proportion to population (with the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province not exceeding 2.75 times that of the least populated one)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[10] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[11]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[12]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[13]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[14][15]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group in the Cortes of Aragon | PP | 30 | 30 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 22 | 22 | ||
| Aragonese Party's Parliamentary Group | PAR | 7 | 7 | ||
| Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group | CHA | 4 | 4 | ||
| United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group | IU | 4 | 4 | ||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[16] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[17]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Luisa Fernanda Rudi | Conservatism Christian democracy |
39.7% | 30 |  |
[18] [19] [20] | |
| PSOE | List |
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Javier Lambán | Social democracy | 29.0% | 22 |  |
[21] [22] | |
| PAR | List
|
.jpg) |
Arturo Aliaga | Regionalism Centrism |
9.2% | 7 | |
[23] | |
| CHA | List
|
.jpg) |
José Luis Soro | Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism |
8.2% | 4 | |
[24] [25] | |
| IU | List
|
 |
Patricia Luquin | Socialism Communism |
6.2% | 4 | |
[26] | |
| UPyD | List |
|
José Luis Lajara | Social liberalism Radical centrism |
2.3% | 0 | |
[27] [28] [29] | |
| Podemos | List
|
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Pablo Echenique | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
Did not contest | |
[30] [31] [32] | ||
| C's | List |
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Susana Gaspar | Liberalism | Did not contest | |
[33] | ||
Campaign
Debates
| Date | Organizer(s) | Moderator(s) | P Present[a] S Surrogate[b] NI Not invited I Invited A Absent invitee | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | PSOE | PAR | CHA | IU | UPyD | Podemos | Audience | Ref. | |||
| 11 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | P Rudi |
P Lambán |
NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | 11.4% (59,000) |
[34] [35] |
| 15 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | S Bermúdez |
S Sada |
P Aliaga |
P Soro |
P Luquin |
P Lajara |
P Echenique |
6.4% (31,000) |
[36] [37] |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 66.3 | 27.5 21 |
21.4 18 |
6.9 6 |
4.6 2 |
4.2 1 |
0.9 0 |
20.6 14 |
9.4 5 |
6.1 |
| TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[p 1] | 24 May 2015 | ? | ? | 27.6 20/23 |
20.6 16/18 |
6.3 5/6 |
5.6 2/3 |
3.4 1/2 |
– | 21.0 14/16 |
10.4 7/8 |
6.6 |
| GAD3/Antena 3[p 2] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 20/22 |
? 16/17 |
? 3/5 |
? 2/3 |
? 2 |
– | ? 12/13 |
? 8/9 |
? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4][p 5] | 17 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.2 23/24 |
25.1 19/20 |
6.1 4/5 |
5.7 2/3 |
5.5 2/3 |
1.0 0 |
11.2 8/9 |
12.5 7/8 |
5.1 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 6][p 7] | 4–5 May 2015 | 1,000 | 75.6 | 23.9 19 |
21.9 16 |
3.0 3 |
2.9 1 |
7.0 4 |
– | 22.5 14 |
15.9 10 |
1.4 |
| Intercampo/Podemos[p 8][p 9] | 15–30 Apr 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 24.0– 28.0 |
19.0– 20.0 |
3.0– 5.0 |
2.0– 4.0 |
1.0– 3.0 |
1.0– 2.0 |
23.0– 26.0 |
19.0– 20.0 |
1.0– 2.0 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 10][p 11][p 12] | 20–29 Apr 2015 | 1,000 | ? | 28.4 19/22 |
21.1 15/16 |
4.6 3/4 |
3.9 2/3 |
5.3 2/3 |
0.8 0 |
15.7 10/12 |
16.2 11/12 |
7.3 |
| CIS[p 13][p 14] | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | ? | 29.7 23/24 |
22.4 17 |
5.7 4 |
5.0 2 |
5.4 3 |
1.5 0 |
14.1 9 |
12.9 8/9 |
7.3 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 15][p 16] | 6–17 Apr 2015 | 2,000 | ? | 28.0 19/22 |
20.9 15/18 |
8.3 4/7 |
7.2 3/4 |
5.0 1/2 |
0.9 0 |
14.9 11/14 |
11.3 7/11 |
7.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18][p 19] | 20 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.8 23/24 |
26.4 20/21 |
6.8 4/5 |
6.3 2/3 |
4.3 1/2 |
1.1 0 |
11.5 8/9 |
10.4 7/8 |
4.4 |
| Llorente & Cuenca[p 20] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 21/25 |
? 17/19 |
? 6/7 |
? 2/6 |
? 4/6 |
? 2 |
? 9/14 |
– | ? |
| 2014 EP election[p 21] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 45.7 | 27.9 (24) |
24.3 (21) |
– | 4.5 (2) |
9.4 (7) |
8.5 (5) |
9.5 (7) |
2.9 (1) |
3.6 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 22][p 23][p 24] | 10 Mar–3 Apr 2014 | 2,000 | 56.0 | 31.2 22/26 |
29.6 21/25 |
7.0 4/6 |
6.8 4/7 |
9.3 6/9 |
8.5 5/8 |
– | – | 1.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 25][p 26] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 27/28 |
? 21/22 |
? 6/7 |
? 6/7 |
? 6/7 |
? 0/2 |
– | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 27][p 28][p 29] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 300 | ? | 36.3 28/29 |
27.1 21/22 |
? 6/7 |
? 4/5 |
? 4/5 |
– | – | – | 9.2 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 30][p 31] | 23 Apr 2013 | ? | 53.1 | 32.2 23/26 |
28.7 21/24 |
8.4 6/9 |
10.1 6/9 |
9.7 5/8 |
3.8 1/3 |
– | – | 3.5 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 71.0 | 47.7 (36) |
31.5 (23) |
[c] | [d] | 10.5 (6) |
5.8 (2) |
– | – | 16.2 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 67.9 | 39.7 30 |
29.0 22 |
9.2 7 |
8.2 4 |
6.2 4 |
2.3 0 |
– | – | 10.7 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election[e] | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 18.5 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 13.8 | 6.3 | N/a | 31.7 | 4.1 |
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 37.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
| 2014 EP election[e] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 12.9 | 11.2 | – | 2.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | N/a | 53.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011 general election[e] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 34.1 | 22.5 | [c] | [d] | 7.5 | 4.1 | – | – | N/a | 27.4 | 11.6 |
| 2011 regional election[e] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 27.2 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | – | – | N/a | 30.6 | 7.4 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 25.8 | 0.8 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 29.5 | 25.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 38.9 | 4.4 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 183,654 | 27.50 | −12.19 | 21 | −9 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 143,096 | 21.43 | −7.59 | 18 | −4 | |
| We Can (Podemos) | 137,325 | 20.56 | New | 14 | +14 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 62,907 | 9.42 | New | 5 | +5 | |
| Aragonese Party (PAR) | 45,846 | 6.86 | −2.29 | 6 | −1 | |
| Aragonese Union (CHA) | 30,618 | 4.58 | −3.65 | 2 | −2 | |
| United Left of Aragon (IU) | 28,184 | 4.22 | −1.94 | 1 | −3 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 5,708 | 0.85 | −1.46 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB) | 5,323 | 0.80 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 4,946 | 0.74 | +0.42 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Commitment with Aragon (CCA) | 2,844 | 0.43 | −0.12 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Equo (Equo) | 1,256 | 0.19 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,082 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA) | 648 | 0.10 | −0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 616 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Aragonese Bloc (BAR) | 581 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 13,224 | 1.98 | −1.21 | |||
| Total | 667,858 | 67 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 667,858 | 98.70 | +0.20 | |||
| Invalid votes | 8,796 | 1.30 | −0.20 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 676,654 | 66.33 | −1.57 | |||
| Abstentions | 343,452 | 33.67 | +1.57 | |||
| Registered voters | 1,020,106 | |||||
| Sources[14][38][39][40] | ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PP | PSOE | Podemos | C's | PAR | CHA | IU | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| Huesca | 26.2 | 5 | 26.4 | 6 | 18.6 | 4 | 8.4 | 1 | 9.2 | 2 | 3.1 | − | 3.3 | − |
| Teruel | 27.5 | 5 | 22.0 | 4 | 16.1 | 2 | 7.2 | 1 | 13.7 | 2 | 3.4 | − | 4.6 | − |
| Zaragoza | 27.8 | 11 | 20.1 | 8 | 21.7 | 8 | 10.0 | 3 | 5.2 | 2 | 5.1 | 2 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Total | 27.5 | 21 | 21.4 | 18 | 20.6 | 14 | 9.4 | 5 | 6.9 | 6 | 4.6 | 2 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Sources[14][38][39][40] | ||||||||||||||
Aftermath
Notes
- Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
- Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
- Does not include non-resident citizens.
- Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.