2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Castile and León
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in Castile and León on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
.jpg)
0.7% 2.8 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 May 2015
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 84 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León 43 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 2,151,993 0.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 1,391,797 (64.7%) 2.8 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.
The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.
Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Castile and León was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[3] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 June 2015.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]
The Cortes of Castile and León was officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCYL, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 June.[6]
Electoral system
Voting for the Cortes was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[7] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[8][9]
The Cortes of Castile and León had three seats per each multi-member constituency—corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora—plus one additional seat per 45,000 inhabitants or fraction above 22,500. All were elected using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[10] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[11]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[12]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[13]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[14][15]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[16] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[17]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Juan Vicente Herrera | Conservatism Christian democracy |
51.6% | 53 |  |
[18] [19] | |
| PSOE | List |
 |
Luis Tudanca | Social democracy | 29.7% | 29 |  |
[20] [21] [22] | |
| IU–Equo | List
|
.jpg) |
José Sarrión | Socialism Communism |
4.9% | 1 | |
[23] [24] | |
| UPL | List
|
.jpg) |
Luis Mariano Santos | Leonesism Regionalism Autonomism |
1.9% | 1 | |
[25] [26] | |
| C's | List |
 |
Luis Fuentes | Liberalism | 0.3% [a] |
0 | |
[27] | |
| Podemos | List
|
.jpg) |
Pablo Fernández | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
Did not contest | |
[28] [29] | ||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
UPL |  |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 64.9 | 37.7 42 |
25.9 25 |
4.1 1 |
1.4 0 |
1.4 1 |
10.3 5 |
12.1 10 |
0.7 0 |
11.8 |
| GAD3/Antena 3[p 1] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 39/42 |
? 23/25 |
? 1 |
– | ? 0/1 |
? 8/10 |
? 8/10 |
– | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 2][p 3][p 4] | 17 May 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 42.2 43/44 |
24.7 22/24 |
4.8 0/1 |
1.1 0 |
2.0 0/1 |
12.6 10/11 |
10.5 7/8 |
– | 17.5 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 5][p 6][p 7] | 6–11 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 39.2 39/41 |
24.5 22/24 |
4.2 1 |
0.9 0 |
0.6 0/1 |
13.5 11/12 |
11.8 10/11 |
– | 14.7 |
| Madison MK/El Norte de Castilla[p 8][p 9] | 29 Apr–6 May 2015 | 1,906 | ? | 38.9 40/43 |
22.5 22/23 |
5.7 1 |
– | 1.7 1 |
13.2 10/12 |
10.4 6/8 |
– | 16.4 |
| Celeste-Tel/Edigrup[p 10][p 11] | 22–30 Apr 2015 | 2,700 | 64.7 | 44.3 44 |
25.0 24 |
4.6 1 |
2.2 0 |
2.2 1 |
12.8 10 |
7.3 4 |
1.3 0 |
19.3 |
| CIS[p 12][p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | ? | 40.9 43/44 |
22.9 20/21 |
3.8 1 |
2.0 0 |
1.8 1 |
11.1 9 |
10.3 8/10 |
– | 18.0 |
| Sigma Dos/Ical[p 14][p 15] | 12–24 Mar 2015 | 2,200 | ? | 39.6 39/43 |
22.2 21/23 |
5.6 1 |
– | 1.3 1 |
13.3 9/10 |
13.8 9/11 |
– | 17.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 16][p 17][p 18] | 4–20 Mar 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 39.3 38/43 |
23.8 22/24 |
4.3 0/1 |
1.4 0 |
1.7 0/1 |
14.1 10/11 |
12.7 8/10 |
– | 15.5 |
| Pnyx/RTVCyL[p 19][p 20][p 21] | 29 Dec–3 Jan 2015 | 2,000 | 71 | 37.6 40/43 |
24.1 24 |
3.9 1 |
6.1 2/3 |
1.5 1 |
5.6 2/3 |
11.7 10/12 |
2.3 0 |
13.5 |
| Llorente & Cuenca[p 22] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 38/40 |
? 23/25 |
? 2/3 |
? 4 |
? 2 |
– | ? 10/16 |
– | ? |
| 2014 EP election[p 23] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 45.9 | 37.5 (43) |
23.4 (24) |
8.3 (6) |
8.3 (6) |
– | 2.7 (0) |
8.1 (5) |
2.5 (0) |
14.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 24][p 25] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 43/44 |
? 25/26 |
? 6/7 |
? 5/6 |
? 2/3 |
– | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 26][p 27][p 28] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 400 | ? | 44.9 43/44 |
28.1 26/27 |
? 5/6 |
? 5/6 |
? 2/3 |
– | – | – | 16.8 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 71.3 | 55.4 (56) |
29.2 (25) |
5.6 (1) |
6.1 (2) |
– | – | – | – | 26.2 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 67.5 | 51.6 53 |
29.7 29 |
4.9 1 |
3.3 0 |
1.9 1 |
0.3 0 |
– | – | 21.9 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
UPL | |
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election[b] | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 25.5 | 17.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | N/a | 31.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS[p 12] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 20.3 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 34.6 | 10.2 | 7.8 |
| 2014 EP election[b] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 17.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | – | 1.3 | 3.9 | N/a | 51.3 | 6.7 |
| 2011 general election[b] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 41.0 | 21.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | – | – | – | N/a | 24.9 | 19.4 |
| 2011 regional election[b] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 36.0 | 20.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | – | – | N/a | 28.9 | 15.4 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 12] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 68.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 22.3 | 62.5 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 514,301 | 37.73 | −13.82 | 42 | −11 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 353,575 | 25.94 | −3.74 | 25 | −4 | |
| We Can (Podemos) | 165,475 | 12.14 | New | 10 | +10 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 | 139,954 | 10.27 | +10.01 | 5 | +5 | |
| United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) | 56,516 | 4.15 | −0.72 | 1 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 19,597 | 1.44 | −1.84 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Leonese People's Union (UPL) | 19,176 | 1.41 | −0.45 | 1 | ±0 | |
| Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)2 | 12,748 | 0.94 | +0.19 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 9,333 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 7,263 | 0.53 | +0.16 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)3 | 5,032 | 0.37 | +0.20 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) | 4,504 | 0.33 | −0.61 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) | 2,445 | 0.18 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) | 2,380 | 0.17 | −0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) | 2,285 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) | 1,963 | 0.14 | −0.13 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) | 1,779 | 0.13 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) | 1,698 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 1,408 | 0.10 | +0.07 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) | 1,374 | 0.10 | −0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 973 | 0.07 | −0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) | 934 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Democracy (DN) | 896 | 0.07 | −0.08 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) | 874 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)4 | 848 | 0.06 | −0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| United Free Citizens (CILUS) | 742 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) | 732 | 0.05 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Cives (Cives) | 628 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB) | 348 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 33,274 | 2.44 | −0.84 | |||
| Total | 1,363,055 | 84 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 1,363,055 | 97.93 | −0.16 | |||
| Invalid votes | 28,742 | 2.07 | +0.16 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,391,797 | 64.67 | −2.83 | |||
| Abstentions | 760,196 | 35.33 | +2.83 | |||
| Registered voters | 2,151,993 | |||||
| Sources[14][30][31] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PP | PSOE | Podemos | C's | IU–Equo | UPL | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| Ávila | 45.3 | 4 | 22.1 | 2 | 10.1 | − | 11.9 | 1 | 4.0 | − | ||
| Burgos | 36.5 | 5 | 24.7 | 3 | 14.2 | 2 | 12.1 | 1 | 3.9 | − | ||
| León | 32.1 | 5 | 27.3 | 5 | 12.6 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 3.4 | − | 7.0 | 1 |
| Palencia | 41.0 | 4 | 29.0 | 2 | 10.8 | 1 | 9.9 | − | 3.9 | − | ||
| Salamanca | 41.5 | 6 | 25.3 | 3 | 10.8 | 1 | 13.3 | 1 | 3.0 | − | ||
| Segovia | 40.0 | 4 | 27.5 | 2 | 11.3 | 1 | 9.1 | − | 3.6 | − | ||
| Soria | 36.9 | 3 | 31.2 | 2 | 12.0 | − | 12.1 | − | 2.8 | − | ||
| Valladolid | 35.7 | 7 | 25.0 | 4 | 13.1 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 6.2 | 1 | ||
| Zamora | 41.3 | 4 | 25.5 | 2 | 11.0 | 1 | 7.8 | − | 4.3 | − | 0.7 | − |
| Total | 37.7 | 42 | 25.9 | 25 | 12.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 5 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Sources[14][30][31] | ||||||||||||
