2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Castilla–La Mancha
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A regional election was held in Castilla–La Mancha on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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0.6%
4.5 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 May 2015
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All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 1,576,351 0.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 1,127,147 (71.5%) 4.5 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Overview
Electoral system
The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]
The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[a][1][4]
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][5][6]
Election date
The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Cortes on 24 May 2015.[1][4][5][6]
The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012 and 27 from 13 August 2012 to 21 July 2014).
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 71.5 | 37.5 16 |
36.1 15 |
3.1 0 |
1.0 0 |
9.7 2 |
8.6 0 |
1.4 |
| TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[p 1][p 2] | 24 May 2015 | 20,250 | ? | 38.4 15/17 |
35.2 13/15 |
– | – | 9.9 1/2 |
7.0 0/1 |
3.2 |
| GAD3/Antena 3[p 3] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 15/16 |
? 13/14 |
– | – | ? 2/3 |
? 0/3 |
? |
| GAD3/ABC[p 4][p 5] | 17 May 2015 | ? | ? | 39.4 16/17 |
27.5 10/11 |
– | – | 10.6 2/3 |
14.2 3/4 |
11.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 6][p 7][p 8] | 17 May 2015 | 900 | ? | 40.8 16/17 |
35.6 12/13 |
3.1 0 |
0.9 0 |
8.9 1/2 |
9.3 1/2 |
5.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 9][p 10] | 8–12 May 2015 | 1,200 | ? | 37.9 15/17 |
32.9 11/13 |
4.3 0 |
– | 10.7 3 |
9.6 2/3 |
5.0 |
| PP[p 11][p 12] | 27 Apr–8 May 2015 | 5,000 | ? | 37.5 17 |
33.6 12 |
4.5 0 |
– | 10.3 2 |
9.8 2 |
3.9 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 13][p 14] | 30 Apr–5 May 2015 | 2,000 | 77 | 35.1 14 |
26.6 10 |
– | – | 12.6 4 |
17.6 5 |
8.5 |
| Noxa/PSOE[p 15][p 16] | 28 Apr–4 May 2015 | 2,000 | ? | 31.6 12 |
32.3 14 |
– | – | 10.0 2 |
17.0 5 |
0.7 |
| Sigma Dos/La Tribuna[p 17] | 27 Apr–4 May 2015 | 1,500 | ? | 37.6 15/16 |
28.8 11 |
6.4 0 |
– | 11.4 3/4 |
11.1 2/4 |
8.8 |
| lavozdeltajo.com[p 18] | 23 Apr–4 May 2015 | 7,274 | ? | 39.5 13/14 |
40.1 14/15 |
1.2 0 |
0.2 0 |
10.7 3/4 |
8.5 2/3 |
0.6 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 19] | 23–28 Apr 2015 | 1,004 | ? | 40.1 17/18 |
25.5 9/10 |
3.6 0 |
0.8 0 |
9.1 2/3 |
16.9 3/5 |
14.6 |
| CIS[p 20][p 21] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | ? | 34.9 14/15 |
35.1 13 |
3.3 0 |
1.4 0 |
9.9 2 |
12.0 3/4 |
0.2 |
| Noxa/La Calle[p 22] | 11–17 Apr 2015 | 2,000 | 75.6 | 35.1 14 |
37.1 14 |
3.1 0 |
2.9 0 |
11.2 4 |
8.5 1 |
2.0 |
| Noxa/La Calle[p 23] | 7–14 Mar 2015 | 2,000 | 73.6 | 35.4 14 |
36.4 14 |
2.8 0 |
3.6 0 |
11.9 4 |
7.8 1 |
1.0 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 24][p 25][p 26] | 2–11 Mar 2015 | 900 | ? | 42.3 17/18 |
33.1 10/11 |
2.8 0 |
1.1 0 |
10.0 2/3 |
9.2 2/3 |
9.2 |
| PSOE[p 27][p 28] | 25 Feb 2015 | ? | ? | ? 14/15 |
? 15/16 |
– | – | ? 3/5 |
– | ? |
| PP[p 29] | 20 Feb 2015 | ? | ? | ? 17 |
? 11/14 |
? 1/2 |
– | ? 4/5 |
– | ? |
| PP[p 30][p 31][p 32] | 28 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | ? 18 |
? 10 |
– | – | ? 5 |
– | ? |
| GAD3/ABC[p 33] | 7–21 Jan 2015 | 2,002 | ? | 42.3 18 |
32.5 11 |
– | – | 11.6 4 |
– | 9.8 |
| Asturbarómetro[p 34] | 10 Dec–9 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | 42.9 17 |
28.1 10 |
2.7 0 |
2.8 0 |
16.4 6 |
2.4 0 |
14.8 |
| Llorente & Cuenca[p 35] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 13/15 |
? 14/16 |
– | – | ? 2/4 |
– | ? |
| NC Report/La Tribuna[p 36] | 12–23 Oct 2014 | 3,000 | 70.7 | 42.6 17 |
35.5 13 |
3.2 0 |
3.4 0 |
12.4 3 |
– | 7.1 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 46.4 | 37.7 (24) |
28.8 (18) |
8.7 (4) |
7.2 (4) |
6.4 (3) |
2.2 (0) |
8.9 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 37] | 26 Mar–10 Apr 2014 | 1,500 | ? | 44.8 28 |
38.7 23 |
8.2 2 |
– | – | – | 6.1 |
| NC Report/La Tribuna[p 38] | 18–28 Nov 2013 | 3,000 | 69.0 | 41.3 27 |
38.9 23 |
7.5 3 |
5.6 0 |
– | – | 2.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 39][p 40] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 27 |
? 23/24 |
? 1/2 |
? 0/1 |
– | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Tribuna[p 41] | 2–15 May 2013 | 3,000 | ? | 41.9 27 |
39.7 23 |
7.2 3 |
5.5 0 |
– | – | 2.2 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 42][p 43][p 44] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 350 | ? | 41.8 27 |
40.2 23/24 |
? 2/3 |
– | – | – | 1.6 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 45] | 1–22 Apr 2013 | 1,500 | ? | 43.5 28 |
40.1 22 |
8.9 3 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | 3.4 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 75.8 | 55.8 (32) |
30.3 (17) |
5.8 (0) |
5.0 (0) |
– | – | 25.5 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 76.0 | 48.1 25 |
43.4 24 |
3.8 0 |
1.8 0 |
– | – | 4.7 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 26.7 | 25.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 6.1 | N/a | 27.2 | 1.0 |
| CIS[p 20] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 34.7 | 7.8 | 3.6 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 17.3 | 13.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | N/a | 52.9 | 4.1 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 42.2 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | – | – | N/a | 23.3 | 19.3 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 36.5 | 32.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | – | – | N/a | 23.1 | 3.6 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 20] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 22.7 | 20.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 27.1 | 2.4 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 20] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 42.4 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 36.1 | 24.4 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 413,349 | 37.49 | −10.62 | 16 | −9 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 398,104 | 36.11 | −7.29 | 15 | −9 | |
| We Can (Podemos) | 107,463 | 9.75 | New | 2 | +2 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 95,230 | 8.64 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (Ganemos–LV–IU)1 | 34,230 | 3.10 | −0.67 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 10,866 | 0.99 | −0.76 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 8,943 | 0.81 | +0.46 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 5,302 | 0.48 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union of Independent Citizens (UCIN)2 | 5,061 | 0.46 | +0.34 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) | 1,918 | 0.17 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Castilian Party–Castilian Unity (PCAS–UdCa)3 | 1,532 | 0.14 | −0.15 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 987 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM) | 287 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 19,256 | 1.75 | +0.08 | |||
| Total | 1,102,528 | 33 | −16 | |||
| Valid votes | 1,102,528 | 97.82 | −0.87 | |||
| Invalid votes | 24,619 | 2.18 | +0.87 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,127,147 | 71.50 | −4.46 | |||
| Abstentions | 449,204 | 28.50 | +4.46 | |||
| Registered voters | 1,576,351 | |||||
| Sources[7][8][9] | ||||||
Footnotes:
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Distribution by constituency
Aftermath
Notes
- The electoral law was amended twice, in 2012 and 2014. The 2012 amendment provided for a 53 seat-Cortes and a fixed allocation of seats among constituencies: 10 for Albacete, 12 for Ciudad Real, 9 for Cuenca, 9 for Guadalajara and 13 for Toledo. As a result of them being superseded by the 2014 amendment, no election was fought under these rules.