2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.
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October 24, 2015 (first round)
November 21, 2015 (runoff) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 39.2%  (first round)40.2%  (runoff) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 Edwards: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vitter: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% Angelle: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dardenne: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Deaton: >90% Odom: 70–80% Tie: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes  Edwards: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vitter: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% Angelle: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dardenne: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Deaton: >90% Odom: 70–80% Tie: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes  Edwards: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vitter: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%  Edwards: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vitter: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%  Edwards: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vitter: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).
The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.
In the November 21, 2015 runoff, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016.[1][2] This was the only statewide victory in 2015 for Democrats in Louisiana, and was the first time Democrats won a statewide election in the state since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008. Edwards' victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections, including Landrieu’s failed 2014 re-election bid. This was the first election since 1968 that a Democratic candidate for governor won during a Democratic presidency. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by the candidates and outside groups.[3]
Candidates
Republican Party
Filed
Declined
- John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana State Treasurer (running for re-election)[8]
- Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish (endorsed Dardenne)[9]
- Michael G. Strain, Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry (running for re-election)[10]
- Rodney Alexander, former secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. representative[11]
- Burl Cain, Warden of the Louisiana State Penitentiary[12][13]
- Gerald Long, state senator[14]
- Buddy Roemer, former governor, former U.S. representative and candidate for president in 2012[15]
Democratic Party
Filed
- John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives[4][16]
- Cary Deaton, candidate for governor in 2011
- SL Simpson
Declined
- Mary Landrieu, former U.S. senator, state treasurer and candidate for governor in 1995[17]
- Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana[18][19]
- John Georges, Businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2007[20]
- Jason Williams, New Orleans City Council President[21]
- Tony Clayton, prosecutor of the 18th Judicial District Court, member of the Southern University system board [22]
- James Bernhard, businessman[23][24]
- Foster Campbell, Public Service Commissioner, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2007[25]
Ineligible
- Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)[26]
Independents
Filed
Declined
- Melvin Slack, candidate for Mayor of Shreveport in 2014[30]
- Russel L. Honoré, retired lieutenant general and former commander of Joint Task Force Katrina[31][32][33][34]
Endorsements
Scott Angelle
Organizations
- Terrebonne Republican Party[35]
- Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish[36]
- Livingston Parish Republican Party[37]
Publishers
- Greater Baton Rouge Business Report[38]
- The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site[39]
Public Figures
- Ali Landry, former Miss USA[40]
Politicians
- Paul Hardy, 48th lieutenant governor of Louisiana
- Fred Mills, Louisiana state senator
- Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President
Jay Dardenne
Politicians
- Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish[9]
John Bel Edwards
Organizations
- Louisiana AFL–CIO[41]
- Louisiana Democratic State Central Committee[42]
- Louisiana Federation of Teachers[43]
- Louisiana Sheriff's Association[44]
- Louisiana State Troopers Association[45] (endorsed during runoff campaign)
Politicians
- Barack Obama, President of the United States[46]
- Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans[47]
- Jamie Mayo, Mayor of Monroe[48]
- Jay Dardenne, Lt. Governor of Louisiana and former candidate for governor[49] (endorsed during runoff campaign)
Newspapers
David Vitter
Organizations
- Gun Owners of America[51]
- Louisiana Association of Business and Industry[52] (endorsed during runoff campaign)
Politicians
- Ralph Abraham, U.S. representative (R-LA)[53]
- Charles Boustany, U.S. representative (R-LA)[54][55]
- George H. W. Bush, 41st president of the United States[56]
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and 2016 presidential candidate.[57]
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator (R-LA)[58]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey and 2016 presidential candidate.[59]
- Joey Durel, Lafayette City-Parish president[55]
- John Fleming, U.S. representative (R-LA)[60]
- John Neely Kennedy, Treasurer of Louisiana[61]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY) and 2016 presidential candidate.[62]
Jungle primary
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Angelle (R) |
Jay Dardenne (R) |
John Bel Edwards (D) |
John Kennedy (R) |
Mitch Landrieu (D) |
David Vitter (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarblePortLLC [63] | October 20–21, 2015 | 1464 | ± 3% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 40.5% | — | — | 28.5% | — | 4.3% |
| MRI [64] | October 15–19, 2015 | 600 | ± ?% | 17% | 14% | 36% | — | — | 19% | 2% | 12% |
| Harper Polling (R)[65] | October 16–17, 2015 | 612 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 14% | 36% | — | — | 26% | — | 9% |
| KPLC/Raycom Media[66] | October 7–13, 2015 | 602 | ± 4% | 7% | 8% | 24% | — | — | 21% | — | 37% |
| The Advocate/WWL-TV[67] | September 20–23, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.46% | 15% | 14% | 24% | — | — | 24% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | September 21–22, 2015 | 616 | ± 4% | 15% | 14% | 28% | — | — | 27% | — | 17% |
| Verne Kennedy[69] | July 27–31, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 25% | 12% | 20% | — | — | 22% | — | 21% |
| MarblePort[70] | June 17, 2015 | 1415 | ± 2.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 28.8% | — | — | 34.1% | — | 15.6% |
| Verne Kennedy[71] | May 27–29, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.5% | 17% | 12% | 29% | — | — | 29% | — | 13% |
| SM&O Research[72] | May 5, 2015 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 6% | 17% | 25% | — | — | 38% | — | 16% |
| MarblePort[73] | March 17, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 2.99% | 7% | 14% | 31% | — | — | 34% | — | 14% |
| Triumph[74] | March 5, 2015 | 1,655 | ± 2.4% | 7% | 15% | 33% | — | — | 35% | — | 11% |
| NSO Research*[75] | January 10–13, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 2% | 10% | 20% | 13% | — | 24% | — | 32% |
| SM&O Research[76] | December 9–11, 2014 | 600 | ± ? | 3.1% | 18.6% | 25.7% | — | — | 36.3% | — | 16.3% |
| Suffolk[77] | October 23–26, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 3% | 9.8% | 3.8% | — | 22.6% | 31.6% | — | 29.2% |
| Multi-Quest[78] | October 22–24, 2014 | 606 | ± 4% | 2.3% | 10.9% | 4% | — | — | 25.9% | 3.8%[79] | 53.1% |
| SM&O Research[80] | April 28–30, 2014 | 600 | ± ? | 3.8% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 28.9% | 28.9% | — | 10.6% |
| PSB[81] | April 2014 | 601 | ± ? | — | 14% | 17% | 8% | — | 18% | 14%[82] | 29% |
| Magellan[83] | March 24–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | — | 13.1% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 26.4% | 27.6% | — | 19.8% |
| V/C Research[84] | February 20–25, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | — | 11% | 8% | 9% | 33% | 25% | — | 15% |
| Kitchens Group**[85] | February 10–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.2% | — | 9% | 21% | 7% | — | 26% | — | 38% |
| WPAOR^[86] | November 12–14, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.5% | — | 12% | 2% | 9% | 20% | 25% | 11%[87] | 11 |
| — | 22% | — | — | 29% | 35% | — | 14% | ||||
| SM&O Research[88] | November 6–12, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 2.1% | 18% | 7.9% | 18.9% | — | 30.3% | — | 22.9% |
| Magellan[89] | October 2–4, 2012 | 2,862 | ± 1.9% | — | 6.5% | — | 7.2% | 29.4% | 31.1% | 9.1%[90] | 16.7% |
- * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
- ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
- ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Bel Edwards | 444,517 | 39.89 | |
| Republican | David Vitter | 256,300 | 23.00 | |
| Republican | Scott Angelle | 214,982 | 19.29 | |
| Republican | Jay Dardenne | 166,656 | 14.96 | |
| Democratic | Cary Deaton | 11,763 | 1.06 | |
| Democratic | S.L. Simpson | 7,420 | 0.67 | |
| Independent | Beryl Billiot | 5,694 | 0.51 | |
| Independent | Jeremy Odom | 4,756 | 0.43 | |
| Independent | Eric Orgeron | 2,248 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 1,114,336 | 100 | ||
Runoff
Campaign
A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.[92]
Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.[93]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, November 10, 2015
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[94] | Lean D (flip) | November 13, 2015 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[95] | Tossup | November 6, 2015 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Lean D (flip) | November 19, 2015 |
| DKE[97] | Tossup | October 29, 2015 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Vitter (R) |
John Bel Edwards (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[98] | November 19, 2015 | 614 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| RRH Elections[99] | November 12–16, 2015 | 359 | ± 5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| JMC Analytics[100] | November 14–16, 2015 | 635 | ± 3.9% | 35% | 51% | 13% |
| JMC Analytics[101] | November 14–16, 2015 | 635 | ± 4% | 38% | 54% | 8% |
| Market Research Insight[102] | November 11–14, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 38% | 53% | 9% |
| Hayride/MarblePort[103] | November 11, 2015 | 978 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Market Research Insight[104] | November 11, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 38% | 52% | 10% |
| UNO Survey Research Center[105] | November 2–8, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 34% | 56% | 10% |
| Triumph Campaigns[106] | November 5, 2015 | 1,818 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| WVLA/JMC Analytics[107] | October 28–31, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 32% | 52% | 16% |
| Market Research Insight[108] | October 27–28, 2015 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 54% | 8% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove[109] | October 26–28, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 52% | 7% |
| KPLC/Raycom Media[66] | October 7–13, 2015 | 602 | ± 4% | 33% | 52% | ?% |
| The Advocate/WWL-TV[67] | September 20–23, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.46% | 41% | 45% | ?% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | September 21–22, 2015 | 616 | ± 4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[110] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,141 | ± 2.9% | 50% | 32% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[111] | June 26–29, 2014 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 52% | 30% | 17% |
| The Kitchen Group*[112] | February 10–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.2% | 38% | 32% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[113] | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 30% | 19% |
*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
Hypothetical polling
Dardenne vs. Landrieu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Dardenne (R) |
Mitch Landrieu (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[110] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,141 | ± 2.9% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[111] | June 26–29, 2014 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[113] | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[114] | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | 35% | 45% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[115] | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 42% | 44% | 15% |
Duke vs. Edwards
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Duke (R) |
Edwin Edwards (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[115] | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 15% | 62% | 23% |
Vitter vs. Landrieu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Vitter (R) |
Mitch Landrieu (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM&O Research[80] | April 28–30, 2014 | 600 | ± ? | 52.8% | 41.8% | 5.5% |
| Gravis Marketing[116] | November 12–14, 2014 | 643 | ± 4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[110] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,141 | ± 2.9% | 47% | 38% | 14% |
| Gravis Marketing[117] | September 5–9, 2014 | 426 | ± 5% | 46% | 44% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[111] | June 26–29, 2014 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[113] | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[114] | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 45% | 14% |
| Harper Polling[118] | August 14–15, 2013 | 596 | ± 4.01% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[115] | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
| Magellan Strategies[119] | October 2–4, 2012 | 2,862 | ± 1.9% | 45.2% | 39.8% | 15% |
Results
Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections.[citation needed] He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Bel Edwards | 646,924 | 56.11% | ||
| Republican | David Vitter | 505,940 | 43.89% | ||
| Total votes | 1,152,864 | 100% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By congressional district
Edwards won five of six congressional districts, including four that were represented by Republicans.[121]
| District | Vitter | Edwards | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57% | 43% | Steve Scalise |
| 2nd | 17% | 83% | Cedric Richmond |
| 3rd | 49.9% | 50.1% | Charles Boustany |
| 4th | 47% | 53% | John Fleming |
| 5th | 46% | 54% | Ralph Abraham |
| 6th | 46% | 54% | Garret Graves |