2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election
Canadian provincial election
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The 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election, held on November 30, 2015, elected members of the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador. The Progressive Conservative Party which had governed since 2003 election, was defeated by the Liberal Party, which won a majority in the new assembly.[3][4][5][6]
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November 30, 2015
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All 40 seats in the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador 21 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 55.2% ( 2.7 pp)[1][2] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election had been scheduled for October 13, 2015, under Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly Act, mandating a fixed election day on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election. However, the House of Assembly amended the act in June 2015, to delay the election until November 30, 2015, so that the election campaign would not overlap with the federal election scheduled on October 19, 2015.[7]
Following the result of the election no party with the word "Conservative" in its name formed the government in either a provincial or federal jurisdiction in Canada for the first time since 1943.[8][9]
At the time (with 55.2% of eligible voters casting a ballot), this election had the lowest turnout of any provincial election since confederation. This record was broken in 2021 when only 48.24% of eligible voters cast a ballot.[10]
Party leadership
Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen.[11] On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.[12][13] Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013, Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party.[14][15][16]
On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader.[17] On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier.[18] Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014, and chose Paul Davis as its leader.[19][20][21][22] Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014.[23]
Timeline
- 2011
- October 11, 2011: Election held for members of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly in the 47th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.
- October 26, 2011: Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward announces his resignation after failing to win the district of St. George's-Stephenville East in the election.[11]
- December 15, 2011: The Liberal Party announces that Humber Valley MHA Dwight Ball will become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.[24]
- 2012
- January 3, 2012: Dwight Ball becomes interim leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.[24]
- September 13, 2012: Progressive Conservative MHA Tom Osborne announces that he has left the party and will sit as an independent.[25]
- 2013
- April 8, 2013: Yvonne Jones (Liberal) resigns her Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair seat to run in a federal by-election in Labrador.[26]
- June 25, 2013: Lisa Dempster (Liberal) is elected MHA for Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair, following the resignation of Yvonne Jones.
- July 18, 2013: Bay of Islands MHA Eddie Joyce is named Leader of the Opposition and Interim Liberal Leader replacing Dwight Ball who resigned to run for the leadership permanently in the party's 2013 leadership election.[27][28]
- August 29, 2013: Independent MHA Tom Osborne (former PC) joins the Liberal caucus.[29]
- October 2, 2013: Jerome Kennedy (PC) resigns his Carbonear-Harbour Grace seat.[30]
- October 21, 2013: The media reports that NDP Leader Lorraine Michael received a letter signed by all four members of her caucus over the previous weekend calling for a leadership election to be held in 2014.[31][32] Michael subsequently asks the party to hold a leadership review in 2014 in which her leadership would be voted on, but not a full party convention.[33]
- October 29, 2013: NDP MHAs Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore announce that they have left the NDP caucus and will sit as independents.[34]
- November 17, 2013: Dwight Ball is elected as leader of the Liberal Party.[35]
- November 26, 2013: Liberal Sam Slade is elected MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace.[36]
- 2014
- January 20, 2014: PC MHA Paul Lane for Mount Pearl South crosses the floor to the Liberal Party.[37]
- January 24, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns as Premier. Finance Minister Tom Marshall is sworn in as premier until Dunderdale's successor is chosen.[17]
- January 27, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore resign their NDP memberships and are now full Independents.[38]
- February 4, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore cross the floor to the Liberal Party.[39]
- February 28, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns her Virginia Waters seat.[40]
- April 9, 2014: Cathy Bennett (Liberal) is elected MHA for Virginia Waters.[41]
- April 17, 2014: Frank Coleman becomes leader-designate of the Progressive Conservative Party following the withdrawal of sole competitor Bill Barry from the leadership election.[42]
- May 18, 2014: Following a party crisis in October 2013, Lorraine Michael is endorsed by 75% of NDP members during a leadership review.[43]
- June 2, 2014: Joan Shea (PC) resigns her St. George's-Stephenville East seat.[44]
- June 16, 2014: Citing a "significant and challenging family matter," Frank Coleman announces his withdrawal from the Progressive Conservative leadership race.[45] As the only candidate left in the race, Coleman was to officially become Progressive Conservative leader at the party's convention on July 5, 2014.[19] Following his withdrawal, Premier Tom Marshall announced that a convention would likely be postponed until after Labour Day.[45]
- August 26, 2014: Scott Reid (Liberal) is elected MHA for St. George's-Stephenville East.[46]
- September 5, 2014: Charlene Johnson (PC) resigns her Trinity-Bay de Verde seat.[47]
- September 13, 2014: Paul Davis is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[48]
- September 18, 2014: Terry French (PC) resigns his Conception Bay South seat.[49]
- September 26, 2014: Paul Davis is sworn in as premier.[50]
- November 3, 2014: Tom Marshall (PC) resigns his Humber East seat.[51]
- November 5, 2014: Rex Hillier (Liberal) is elected MHA for Conception Bay South.[52]
- November 25, 2014: Steve Crocker (Liberal) and Stelman Flynn (Liberal) are elected as MHAs for Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East respectively.[53]
- 2015
- January 6, 2015: Lorraine Michael announces she will resign as NDP leader.[54]
- March 7, 2015: Earle McCurdy is elected leader of the NDP.[55][56]
- July 3, 2015: Kevin O'Brien (PC) resigns his Gander seat.[57]
Campaign
In June 2015, Premier Davis announced that a general election would be held in November, after the October federal election. Many veteran PC MHAs who had served in Danny Williams' cabinet did not seek re-election.[58] On November 5, Davis visited the lieutenant governor to request that the House of Assembly be dissolved. The election would be held on November 30.
The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66% support among decided voters at the outset[59] and 67% support in a poll released just one week before election day.[60]
Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province,[61] although others suggested that this was unlikely.[62] Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested,[61] and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them.[62]
In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs.[63][64]
The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile, who took 96.5% of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes.[65]
Party standings
This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.
 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | |||||
| 2011 | Dissol. | 2015 | Change | ||||||
| Liberal | 114,271 | 57.15 | +38.1 | 6 | 16 | 31 | +15 | ||
| Progressive Conservative | 60,413 | 30.22 | -25.9 | 37 | 29 | 7 | -22 | ||
| New Democratic | 23,906 | 11.96 | -12.6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -1 | ||
| Independents | 1,344 | 0.67 | +0.5 | ±0 | ±0 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Total | 199,934 | 100.00 | – | 48 | 48 | 40 | 0 | ||
Results by party
| 31 | 7 | 2 |
| Liberal | Progressive Conservative | NDP |
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However, in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%), while they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%) in 2015. By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes. 6 liberal candidates won over 80% of the popular vote in their respective ridings and four of these six candidates were later appointed to the Executive Council.
Progressive Conservative Party
With this election, PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). With seven of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won three of 42 seats.[66]
New Democratic Party
In the 2011 election, the NDP placed second in total votes. They won five seats (a record-high for the party); however, since the election, two NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only two of the three remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election; these two MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning two of 40 seats (5%). However, NDP leader McCurdy was defeated in his district.[67]
Results by region
The district with the highest turnout was Cape St. Francis (71.68%). The district with the lowest turnout was Torngat Mountains (39.50%).[68]
| Party Name | St. John's | St. John's Metro | Avalon/Burin | Central | Western | Labrador | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parties winning seats in the legislature: | |||||||||
| Progressive Conservative | Seats: | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Popular Vote: | 19.81% | 54.74% | 29.71% | 34.51% | 13.50% | 18.90% | 30.22% | ||
| Liberal | Seats: | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 | |
| Popular Vote: | 50.27% | 36.97% | 61.80% | 55.76% | 79.19% | 63.41% | 57.15% | ||
| New Democratic | Seats: | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Popular Vote: | 29.92% | 8.29% | 8.19% | 7.17% | 7.31% | 17.69% | 11.96% | ||
| Parties that won no seats in the legislature | |||||||||
| Independent | Popular Vote: | 0.30% | 2.56% | 0.67% | |||||
Candidates by district
Bold incumbents indicate cabinet members and party leaders are italicized. The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.
- All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
- Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
- † Represents that the incumbent is not running again.
- § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
- ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination.
- ‡ Represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.
St. John's
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Mount Scio 46.81% turnout |
Rhonda Churchill Herder 1,104 27.4% |
Dale Kirby 1,899 47.1% |
Sean Panting 1,030 25.5% |
Dale Kirby St. John's North | ||||||
| St. John's Centre 47.58% turnout |
Kathie Hicks 490 10.6% |
Lynn Sullivan 1,923 41.7% |
Gerry Rogers 2,195 47.6% |
Gerry Rogers | ||||||
| St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 56.40% turnout |
Joshua Collier 478 8.1% |
Paul Antle 2,365 40.2% |
Lorraine Michael 3,035 51.6% |
George Murphy† St. John's East | ||||||
| St. John's West 55.63% turnout |
Dan Crummell[69] 1,364 26.8% |
Siobhan Coady[69] 2,342 46.0% |
Earle McCurdy[69] 1,384 27.2% |
Dan Crummell | ||||||
| Virginia Waters-Pleasantville 56.55% turnout |
Beth Crosbie 1,826 32.5% |
Bernard Davis 2,528 45.0% |
Bob Buckingham 1,259 22.4 |
Lorraine Michael‡ Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi | ||||||
| Waterford Valley 55.13% turnout |
Alison Stoodley 792 14.6% |
Tom Osborne 3,588 65.9% |
Alison Coffin 1,062 19.5% |
John Dinn Kilbride | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Tom Osborne St. John's South | ||||||||||
| Windsor Lake 52.59% turnout |
Ryan Cleary 970 20.2% |
Cathy Bennett 3,182 66.3% |
Don Rowe 647 13.5% |
Cathy Bennett Virginia Waters | ||||||
St. John's suburbs
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Cape St. Francis 71.68% turnout |
Kevin Parsons 4,086 66.3% |
Geoff Gallant 1,613 26.2% |
Mark Gruchy 460 7.5% |
Kevin Parsons | ||||||
| Conception Bay South 55.03% turnout |
Barry Petten 2,360 47.7% |
Steve Porter 2,187 44.2% |
Jeanne Clarke 398 8.0% |
Rex Hillier‡ | ||||||
| Mount Pearl North 63.09% turnout |
Steve Kent 3,120 51.5% |
Randy Simms 2,571 42.4% |
Cameron Mercer-Maillet 370 6.1% |
Steve Kent | ||||||
| Mount Pearl-Southlands 56.58% turnout |
Jim Lester 2,318 42.9% |
Paul Lane 2,559 47.4% |
Roy Locke 522 9.7% |
Paul Lane Mount Pearl South | ||||||
| Conception Bay East – Bell Island 55.46% turnout |
David Brazil 3,463 59.2% |
Danny Dumaresque 1,582 27.1% |
Bill Kavanagh 803 13.7% |
David Brazil | ||||||
| Topsail-Paradise 57.58% turnout |
Paul Davis 3,381 58.3% |
Rex Hillier 2,137 36.9% |
Chris Bruce 281 4.8% |
Paul Davis Topsail | ||||||
Avalon Peninsula
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde 49.02% turnout |
Tomas Shea 529 9.1% |
Steve Crocker 4,952 85.0% |
David Coish 304 5.2% |
Ed Cole (Ind.) 38 0.7% |
Steve Crocker Trinity-Bay de Verde | |||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Sam Slade§ Carbonear-Harbour Grace | ||||||||||
| Ferryland 62.34% turnout |
Keith Hutchings 3,093 49.8% |
Jeff Marshall 2,550 41.1% |
Mona Rossiter 564 9.1% |
Keith Hutchings | ||||||
| Harbour Grace-Port de Grave 59.50% turnout |
Glenn Littlejohn 2,289 36.3% |
Pam Parsons 3,877 61.5% |
Kathleen Burt 133 2.1% |
Glenn Littlejohn Port de Grave | ||||||
| Harbour Main 56.31% turnout |
Curtis Buckle 1,998 34.9% |
Betty Parsley 2,253 39.4% |
Raymond Flaherty 1,381 24.2% |
Ted Noseworthy 85 1.5% |
Tom Hedderson† | |||||
| Placentia-St. Mary's 61.71% turnout |
Judy Manning 1,751 30.5% |
Sherry Gambin-Walsh 3,789 66.0% |
Peter Beck 197 3.4% |
Felix Collins† | ||||||
Eastern Newfoundland
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Bonavista 57.80% turnout |
Glen Little 1,436 27.0% |
Neil King 3,504 65.8% |
Adrian Power 116 2.2% |
Johanna Ryan Guy (Ind.) 269 5.1% |
Glen Little Bonavista South | |||||
| Burin-Grand Bank 53.60% turnout |
Terence Fleming 441 8.8% |
Carol Anne Haley 3,962 79.4% |
Ambrose Penton 590 11.8% |
Darin King† Grand Bank | ||||||
| Placentia West-Bellevue 59.10% turnout |
Calvin Peach 1,931 33.7% |
Mark Browne 3,645 63.7% |
Bobbie Warren 146 2.6% |
Calvin Peach Bellevue | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Clyde Jackman† Burin-Placentia West | ||||||||||
| Terra Nova 57.29% turnout |
Sandy Collins 2,422 42.8% |
Colin Holloway 2,476 43.7% |
Bert Blundon 763 13.5 |
Sandy Collins Terra Nova | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Ross Wiseman† Trinity North | ||||||||||
Central Newfoundland
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Baie Verte-Green Bay 55.90% turnout |
Kevin Pollard 2,197 39.4% |
Brian Warr 3,130 56.1% |
Matt Howse 253 4.5% |
Kevin Pollard Baie Verte-Springdale | ||||||
| Exploits 56.16% turnout |
Clayton Forsey 2,489 47.0% |
Jerry Dean 2,654 50.2% |
Bridget Henley 148 2.8% |
Clayton Forsey | ||||||
| Fogo Island-Cape Freels 48.20% turnout |
Eli Cross 1,387 27.6% |
Derrick Bragg 3,516 69.9% |
Rebecca Stuckey 128 2.5% |
Eli Cross Bonavista North | ||||||
| Gander 47.40% turnout |
Ryan Menchion 351 7.5% |
John Haggie 3,151 67.7% |
Lukas Norman 1,152 24.8% |
Vacant | ||||||
| Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 67.66% turnout |
Tracey Perry 1,830 49.1% |
Bill Carter 1,405 37.7% |
Mildred Skinner 494 13.2% |
Tracey Perry | ||||||
| Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 54.32% turnout |
Mark Whiffen 1,061 22.8% |
Al Hawkins 2,534 54.6% |
Meaghan Keating 141 3.0% |
Rex Barnes (Ind.) 908 19.6% |
Susan Sullivan† Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans | |||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Ray Hunter† Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South | ||||||||||
| Lewisporte-Twillingate 58.44% turnout |
Derrick Dalley 2,686 44.5% |
Derek Bennett 3,254 53.9% |
Hillary Bushell 99 1.6% |
Wade Verge† Lewisporte | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Derrick Dalley The Isles of Notre Dame | ||||||||||
Western Newfoundland
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Burgeo-La Poile 57.73% turnout |
Georgia Darmonkow 93 2.2% |
Andrew Parsons 3,998 96.5% |
Kelly McKeown 53 1.3% |
Andrew Parsons | ||||||
| Corner Brook 45.03% turnout |
Neville Wheaton 779 16.6% |
Gerry Byrne 3,121 66.7% |
Holly Pike 781 16.7% |
Vaughn Granter Humber West | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Stelman Flynn§ Humber East | ||||||||||
| Humber - Gros Morne 64.85% turnout |
Graydon Pelley 983 16.2% |
Dwight Ball 4,610 76.0% |
Mike Goosney 474 7.8% |
Jim Bennett₰ St. Barbe | ||||||
| Merged District | ||||||||||
| Dwight Ball Humber Valley | ||||||||||
| Humber-Bay of Islands 52.56% turnout |
Ronald Jesseau 564 10.3% |
Eddie Joyce 4,622 84.5% |
Conor Curtis 282 5.2% |
Eddie Joyce Bay of Islands | ||||||
| St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows 52.65% turnout |
Ford Mitchelmore 404 8.3% |
Chris Mitchelmore 4,359 89.3% |
Genevieve Brouillette 117 2.4% |
Chris Mitchelmore The Straits-White Bay North | ||||||
| St. George's-Humber 49.68% turnout |
Greg Osmond 708 15.2% |
Scott Reid 3,618 77.5% |
Shane Snook 341 7.3% |
Scott Reid St. George's-Stephenville East | ||||||
| Stephenville-Port au Port 51.24% turnout |
Tony Cornect 1,273 25.3% |
John Finn 3,262 64.8% |
Bernice Hancock 499 9.9% |
Tony Cornect Port au Port | ||||||
Labrador
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 49.30% turnout |
Jason MacKenzie 48 3.2% |
Lisa Dempster 1,405 93.0% |
Jennifer Deon 57 3.8% |
Lisa Dempster | ||||||
| Labrador West 53.60% turnout |
Nick McGrath 712 21.5% |
Graham Letto 1,453 43.8% |
Ron Barron 1,152 34.7% |
Nick McGrath | ||||||
| Lake Melville 47.97% turnout |
Keith Russell 850 28.6% |
Perry Trimper 1,840 62.0% |
Arlene Michelin-Pittman 280 9.4% |
Keith Russell | ||||||
| Torngat Mountains 39.50% turnout |
Sharon Vokey 23 2.7% |
Randy Edmunds 779 92.6% |
Mark Sharkey 39 4.6% |
Randy Edmunds | ||||||
Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015.[70]
MHAs not running again
|
Progressive Conservative
|
Liberal New Democratic Party
|
Opinion polls
| Polling Firm | Date of Polling | Link | Progressive Conservative | Liberal | New Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forum Research | November 29, 2015 | 31 | 54 | 15 | |
| Abacus Data | November 22–24, 2015 | 22 | 64 | 13 | |
| Forum Research | November 24, 2015 | 29 | 52 | 19 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | November 5–22, 2015 | 22 | 67 | 10 | |
| MQO | November 5–11, 2015 | 17 | 74 | 9 | |
| Forum Research | November 6, 2015 | 21 | 65 | 13 | |
| Abacus Data | October 30–November 4, 2015 | 19 | 66 | 15 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | August 11–September 2, 2015 | 27 | 48 | 25 | |
| Abacus Data/VOCM | June 17–21, 2015 | 21 | 53 | 25 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | May 11–June 1, 2015 | 27 | 50 | 22 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | February 9–March 2, 2015 | 31 | 56 | 13 | |
| Abacus Data | February 17–25, 2015 | 32 | 57 | 9 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | November 5–30, 2014 | 29 | 60 | 10 | |
| MQO | October 20–25, 2014 | 28 | 62 | 11 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | August 7–September 1, 2014 | 26 | 58 | 15 | |
| Abacus Data/VOCM | July 28–August 1, 2014 | 34 | 48 | 16 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | May 12–31, 2014 | 29 | 53 | 16 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | February 11– March 4, 2014 | 33 | 53 | 13 | |
| Abacus Data/VOCM | January 27–30, 2014 | 34 | 49 | 15 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | November 7–30, 2013 | 29 | 52 | 19 | |
| MQO | October 22–26, 2013 | [84] | 29 | 52 | 18 |
| Corporate Research Associates | August 8–31, 2013 | 26 | 41 | 33 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | May 8–30, 2013 | 27 | 36 | 37 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | February 11–March 8, 2013 | 38 | 22 | 39 | |
| MQO | January 21–27, 2013 | [85] | 36 | 28 | 35 |
| Corporate Research Associates | November 13-December 1, 2012 | [86] | 46 | 23 | 31 |
| Corporate Research Associates | August 9–September 2, 2012 | 45 | 22 | 33 | |
| Environics Research Group | June 19–29, 2012 | 35 | 26 | 38 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | May 10–June 4, 2012 | 49 | 18 | 33 | |
| Corporate Research Associates | February 13–29, 2012 | HTML | 54 | 18 | 28 |
| Corporate Research Associates | November 9–29, 2011 | 60 | 13 | 26 | |
| Election 2011 | October 11, 2011 | – | 56.1 | 19.1 | 24.6 |