2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
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The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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   Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pierce: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.
Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon. As of 2026, it was also the most recent gubernatorial special election in the U.S., excluding recall elections.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Brad Avakian, State Labor Commissioner (running for secretary of state)[5][6]
- Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives[5]
- Ted Wheeler, state treasurer (running for Mayor of Portland)[5][7]
Results
Brown
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 494,890 | 83.03 | |
| Democratic | Julian Bell | 49,313 | 8.27 | |
| Democratic | Dave Stauffer | 16,108 | 2.70 | |
| Democratic | Steve Johnson | 13,363 | 2.24 | |
| Democratic | Kevin M. Forsythe | 10,147 | 1.70 | |
| Democratic | Chet Chance | 5,636 | 0.95 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 6,595 | 1.11 | |
| Total votes | 596,052 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Allen Alley, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, nominee for Oregon State Treasurer in 2008 and candidate for governor in 2010[9]
- Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014[10]
- Bob Forthan, perennial candidate[10]
- Bob Niemeyer, engineering company owner and candidate for OR-01 in 2014[11]
- Bud Pierce, physician[12][13][14][15]
Declined
- Shane Bemis, Mayor of Gresham[16]
- Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012[17][18]
- Sid Leiken, Lane County Commissioner, former mayor of Springfield and candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district in 2010 (running for secretary of state)[19]
- Julie Parrish, state representative[16][20]
- Dennis Richardson, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for secretary of state)[21]
- Sherrie Sprenger, state representative[22]
- Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[23]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Allen Alley |
Bruce Cuff |
Bob Forthan |
Bob Neimeyer |
Bud Pierce |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[24] | May 6–9, 2016 | 324 | ± 5.7% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 25% | 44% |
Results
Pierce
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Alley
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | William C. Pierce | 171,158 | 47.66 | |
| Republican | Allen Alley | 103,388 | 28.79 | |
| Republican | Bruce Cuff | 41,598 | 11.58 | |
| Republican | Bob Niemeyer | 35,669 | 9.93 | |
| Republican | Bob Forthan | 4,290 | 1.19 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 3,020 | 0.84 | |
| Total votes | 359,123 | 100.00 | ||
Independent Party primary
The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.[25]
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Betsy Johnson, Democratic state senator[26]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Party | Cliff Thomason | 9,806 | 34.89 | |
| Independent Party | Patrick Barney | 6,840 | 24.34 | |
| Independent Party | Write-ins | 11,460 | 40.77 | |
| Total votes | 28,106 | 100.00 | ||
Minor parties
- Aaron Donald Auer (Constitution Party), candidate for governor in 2014[27][28]
- James Foster (Libertarian Party), candidate for OR-01 in 2014[27][29]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2016 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 20, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Likely D | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[31] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[32] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[34] | Likely D | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[35] | Safe D | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kate Brown (D) |
Bud Pierce (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[36] | October 4–29, 2016 | October 29, 2016 | 45.5% | 35.5% | 19.0% | Brown +10.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Bud Pierce (R) |
Cliff Thomason (I) |
James Foster (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[37] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,595 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,483 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 40% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 1,150 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 40% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[40] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 934 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 41% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[41] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 809 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 41% | — | — | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[42] | October 25–31, 2016 | 743 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 42% | — | — | — | 4% |
| FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research[43] | October 24–29, 2016 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 33% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 15% |
| Clout Research (R)[44] | October 20–21, 2016 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 6% | 6% |
| KGW Oregonian/Riley Research[45] | October 4–14, 2016 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | — | — | — | 13% |
| Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research[46] | October 6–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 3% | — | 12% |
| KATU-TV/SurveyUSA[47] | October 10–12, 2016 | 654 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 42% | — | — | 4% | 8% |
| iCitizen[48] | September 2–7, 2016 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 27% | 3% | 3% | — | 23% |
| KATU-TV/DHM Research[49] | September 1–6, 2016 | 517 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 35% | — | — | — | 18% |
| Clout Research (R)[50] | July 9–13, 2016 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 42% | 5% | 2% | — | 7% |
| iCitizen[51] | June 23–27, 2016 | 555 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 35% | — | — | — | 23% |
| Action Solutions[52]→ | June 1–2, 2016 | 600 | ± 5.7% | 39% | 37% | — | — | — | 24% |
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 27% | — | — | — | 28% |
→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.
Hypothetical polling
with Allen Alley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Allen Alley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | — | 21% |
with Shane Bemis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Shane Bemis (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 26% | — | 28% |
with Dennis Richardson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Dennis Richardson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | — | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 985,027 | 50.62% | +0.73% | |
| Republican | Bud Pierce | 845,609 | 43.45% | −0.68% | |
| Independent Party | Cliff Thomason | 47,481 | 2.44% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | James Foster | 45,191 | 2.32% | +0.83% | |
| Constitution | Aaron Donald Auer | 19,400 | 1.00% | −0.08% | |
| Write-in | 3,338 | 0.17% | -0.28% | ||
| Total votes | 1,946,046 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Kate Brown
Democrat |
Votes | Bud Pierce
Republican |
Votes | All Others
Independent |
Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker | 23.55% | 2,047 | 69.83% | 6,069 | 6.62% | 575 |
| Benton | 59.28% | 28,043 | 34.97% | 16,543 | 5.76% | 2,722 |
| Clackamas | 46.36% | 96,735 | 48.35% | 100,882 | 5.26% | 11,030 |
| Clatsop | 50.35% | 9,667 | 43.88% | 8,425 | 5.75% | 1,106 |
| Columbia | 42.4% | 11,020 | 49.72% | 12,925 | 7.89% | 2,048 |
| Coos | 37.44% | 11,500 | 54.98% | 16,889 | 7.58% | 2,330 |
| Crook | 24.83% | 2,990 | 68.37% | 8,232 | 6.8% | 818 |
| Curry | 40.38% | 4,947 | 52.32% | 6,410 | 7.3% | 894 |
| Deschutes | 44.07% | 42,298 | 49.83% | 47,824 | 6.1% | 5,858 |
| Douglas | 30.16% | 15,878 | 62.02% | 32,647 | 7.83% | 4,118 |
| Gilliam | 26.97% | 277 | 67.58% | 694 | 5.45% | 56 |
| Grant | 21.17% | 904 | 72.42% | 3,093 | 6.42% | 274 |
| Harney | 22.46% | 886 | 70.23% | 2,770 | 7.3% | 288 |
| Hood River | 60.31% | 6,441 | 34.39% | 3,672 | 5.3% | 566 |
| Jackson | 44.17% | 46,803 | 49.31% | 52,259 | 6.53% | 6,911 |
| Jefferson | 34.1% | 3,169 | 59.01% | 5,484 | 6.89% | 641 |
| Josephine | 34.89% | 24,078 | 55.48% | 24,078 | 9.63% | 4,179 |
| Klamath | 28.09% | 8,420 | 64.1% | 19,211 | 7.81% | 2,340 |
| Lake | 19.74% | 762 | 72.38% | 2,794 | 7.87% | 304 |
| Lane | 55.3% | 103,226 | 38.69% | 72,208 | 6.01% | 11,217 |
| Lincoln | 53.13% | 13,212 | 40.55% | 10,084 | 6.32% | 1,572 |
| Linn | 33.26% | 19,156 | 59.96% | 34,539 | 6.79% | 3,904 |
| Malheur | 23.85% | 2,436 | 68.21% | 6,966 | 7.94% | 811 |
| Marion | 41.32% | 55,748 | 53.93% | 72,752 | 4.75% | 6,408 |
| Morrow | 27.89% | 1,152 | 64.94% | 2,682 | 7.17% | 296 |
| Multnomah | 72.91% | 279,210 | 21.97% | 84,139 | 5.12% | 19,593 |
| Polk | 40.14% | 15,960 | 54.94% | 21,847 | 4.92% | 1,957 |
| Sherman | 23.56% | 234 | 72.61% | 721 | 3.83% | 38 |
| Tillamook | 45.44% | 6,152 | 48.74% | 6,599 | 5.79% | 789 |
| Umatilla | 31.82% | 8,541 | 60.61% | 16,269 | 7.56% | 2,031 |
| Union | 26.74% | 3,410 | 67.12% | 8,561 | 6.14% | 783 |
| Wallowa | 29.07% | 1,253 | 65.81% | 2,837 | 5.13% | 221 |
| Wasco | 43.24% | 5,057 | 50.23% | 5,874 | 6.53% | 763 |
| Washington | 54.99% | 143,278 | 39.26% | 102,282 | 5.75% | 14,987 |
| Wheeler | 23.66% | 194 | 70.12% | 575 | 6.21% | 51 |
| Yamhill | 39.68% | 18,882 | 54.16% | 25,773 | 6.16% | 2,931 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Brown won three of five congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.[55]
| District | Kate Brown |
Bud Pierce |
Elected Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54% | 41% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 38% | 55% | Greg Walden |
| 3rd | 68% | 26% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 47% | 46% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 45% | 49% | Kurt Schrader |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.