2016 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
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The 2016 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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  Zinke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Juneau: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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At the time, Montana's congressional district had a PVI of R+7. Republican Ryan Zinke, who was first elected in 2014, is the incumbent. Zinke was re-elected in 2016.[1][2] He faced no primary opposition. Denise Juneau, who at the time of the election was the Montana State Superintendent of Public Instruction, was the lone Democrat to file for election.[3][4] The primaries were held on June 7.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Ryan Zinke, incumbent
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 144,660 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 144,660 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Denise Juneau | 112,821 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 112,821 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections[7] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg[8] | Likely R | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP[10] | Likely R | October 31, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[11] | October 10–12, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 1%[12] | 6% |
| Montana State University Billings[13] | October 3–10, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 31% | — | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 285,358 | 56.19% | +0.78% | |
| Democratic | Denise Juneau | 205,919 | 40.55% | +0.14% | |
| Libertarian | Rick Breckenridge | 16,554 | 3.26% | −0.92% | |
| Total votes | 507,831 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
