2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26.
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November 8, 2016
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Toomey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McGinty: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. If McGinty had won, she would have become Pennsylvania's first female U.S. senator.[1][2] With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.
As of 2025, Pat Toomey was the last Republican U.S. Senatorial candidate to win the counties of Bucks, Centre, Dauphin, and Erie and Chester.
Background
Five-term senator Arlen Specter, a longtime moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, and ran for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Toomey had previously run for the seat in 2004, narrowly losing to Specter in the Republican primary. Specter later died in 2012.
After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority.[3][4][5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003.[6] McGinty faced 2010 nominee Sestask and mayor of Braddock, future lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania and holder of this Senate seat John Fetterman in the primary.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator[7]
Endorsements
Pat Toomey
Federal officials
- John Bolton, 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[8]
U.S. senators
- John Cornyn, U.S. senator from Texas (2002–present), Senate Majority Whip (2015–2019)[9]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present), candidate for president in 2016[9]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa (2015–present)[10]
- John McCain, U.S. senator from Arizona (1987–2018), Republican nominee for president in 2008, candidate for president in 2000[11]
U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012) (Democratic)[12]
Mayors
- Michael Bloomberg, 108th mayor of New York City (2002–2013) and CEO of Bloomberg L.P.[13]
Individuals
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in California in 2010, candidate for president in 2016[14]
Organizations
Newspapers
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Pat Toomey (incumbent) | 1,342,941 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,342,941 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Katie McGinty, former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and candidate for the governorship in 2014[27][28][29][30]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Bob Brady, U.S. representative and chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee (endorsed Katie McGinty)[37]
- Chris Carney, former U.S. representative[38]
- Matt Cartwright, U.S. representative (endorsed Joe Sestak)[39]
- Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County executive and former U.S. representative (endorsed Katie McGinty)[40]
- Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania auditor general (running for re-election)[41]
- Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County executive (endorsed Katie McGinty)[40][42]
- David Hickton, United States attorney for the Western District of Pennsylvania[43]
- Vincent Hughes, state senator (endorsed Katie McGinty)[44][45][46]
- Kathleen Kane, Pennsylvania attorney general[27][47][48][49]
- Rob McCord, former Pennsylvania Treasurer and candidate for the governorship in 2014[50]
- Patrick Murphy, former U.S. representative and candidate for attorney general in 2012[37][51]
- Michael Nutter, mayor of Philadelphia (endorsed Katie McGinty)[52][53]
- Ed Rendell, former governor of Pennsylvania (endorsed Katie McGinty)[54][55]
- Allyson Schwartz, former U.S. representative and candidate for the governorship in 2014[39]
- Josh Shapiro, chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners and former state representative (running for attorney general)[56][57][58]
- Joe Torsella, United States representative to the United Nations for Management and Reform and former chairman of the Pennsylvania State Board of Education (running for state treasurer)[59][60]
- R. Seth Williams, district attorney of Philadelphia[40]
Endorsements
John Fetterman
Governors
- Martin O'Malley, 61st governor of Maryland (2007–2015), candidate for president in 2016[61]
State officials
- Barbara Hafer, 33rd treasurer of Pennsylvania (1997–2005)[62]
Individuals
- Marianne Williamson, founder of Project Angel Food[63]
Organizations
Newspapers and publications
Katie McGinty
Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017)[66]
- Hillary Clinton, 67th secretary of state (2009–2013), Democratic nominee for president in 2016, candidate for president in 2008[67]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[66]
U.S. senators
- Barbara Boxer, U.S. senator from California (1993–2017)[68]
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio (2007–2025)[69]
- Bob Casey, Jr., U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2007–2025)[70]
- Dianne Feinstein, U.S. senator from California (1992–2023)[71]
- Al Franken, U.S. senator from Minnesota (2009–2018)[72]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York (2009–present)[73]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator from New Mexico (2013–present)[71]
- Mazie Hirono, U.S. senator from Hawaii (2013–present)[71]
- Patrick Leahy, U.S. senator from Vermont (1975–2023)[71]
- Claire McCaskill, U.S. senator from Missouri (2007–2019)[71]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. senator from Oregon (2009–present)[71]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. senator from Connecticut (2013–present)[71]
- Patty Murray, U.S. senator from Washington (1993-present)[74]
- Gary Peters, U.S. senator from Michigan (2015–present)[71]
- Harry Reid, U.S. senator from Nevada (1987–2017), Senate Minority Leader (2015–2017)[75]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. senator from Hawaii (2012–present)[76]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator from New York (1999–present)[77]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. senator from New Hampshire (2009–present)[78]
- Jon Tester, U.S. senator from Montana (2007–2025)[71]
- Mark Warner, U.S. senator from Virginia (2009–present)[71]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[79]
- Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. senator from Rhode Island (2007–present)[71]
U.S. representatives
- Bob Brady, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (1998–2019), chairman of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present)[37]
- Michael F. Doyle, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (2003–2019), Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (1995–2003)[80]
Governors
- Ed Rendell, 45th governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011)[81]
- Tom Wolf, 47th governor of Pennsylvania (2015–present)[82]
State legislators
- Ryan Bizzarro, state representative from the 3rd district (2013–present)[83]
- Jim Brewster, state senator from the 45th district (2010–present)[84]
- Dom Costa, state representative from the 21st district (2009–2018)[84]
- Jay Costa, state senator from the 43rd district (1996–present), Pennsylvania Senate Minority Leader (2011-present)[84]
- Paul Costa, state representative from the 34th district (1999–2019)[84]
- Dan Deasy, state representative from the 27th district (2009–present)[84]
- Anthony M. DeLuca, state representative from the 32nd district (1983–present)[84]
- Frank Dermody, state representative from the 33rd district (1991–2020), Pennsylvania House Minority Leader (2011–2020)[84]
- Florindo Fabrizio, state representative from the 2nd district (2003–2018)[83]
- Wayne D. Fontana, state senator from the 42nd district (2005–present)[84]
- Dan Frankel, state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present)[84]
- Ed Gainey, state representative from the 24th district (2013–2022)[84]
- Marc Gergely, state representative from the 35th district (2003–2017)[84]
- Pat Harkins, state representative from the 1st district (2007–present)[83]
- Vincent Hughes, state senator from the 7th district (1994–present)[46]
- Bill Kortz, state representative from the 38th district (2007–2021)[84]
- Joe Markosek, state representative from the 25th district (1983–2018)[84]
Municipal officials
- Kim Bracey, 24th mayor of York (2010–2018)[85]
- Alan Butkovitz, Philadelphia city controller (2006–2018)[53]
- Darrell Clarke, Philadelphia City Council president (2012–present)[53]
- Carolyn Comitta, 58th mayor of West Chester (2010–2017)[85]
- Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County executive (2014–2022), U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2009–2011)[83]
- Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County chief executive (2012–present)[84]
- Elizabeth Goreham, mayor of State College (2010–2018)[85]
- Rick Gray, mayor of Lancaster (2006–2018)[85]
- Thomas Leighton, mayor of Wilkes-Barre (2004–2016)[85]
- Michael Nutter, 98th mayor of Philadelphia (2008–2016)[53]
- Bill Peduto, 60th mayor of Pittsburgh (2014–2022)[80]
Individuals
- Ellen Malcolm, author and founder of EMILY's List[86]
- Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY's List[87]
Labor unions
- AFL–CIO[88]
- AFSCME[89]
- Amalgamated Transit Union[90]
- American Federation of Teachers[91]
- International Alliance of Theatrical and Stage Employees Local 8[92]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW)[93]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 542[94]
- Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals[95]
- Pennsylvania State Education Association[96]
- Service Employees International Union (SEIU)[97]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 1776[98]
- United Steelworkers (USW)[99]
Organizations
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)[100]
- EMILY's List[101]
- Equality Pennsylvania[102]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[103]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[104]
- Ocean Champions[92]
- Planned Parenthood[105]
Newspapers and publications
Joe Sestak
U.S. representatives
- Matt Cartwright, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district[107]
Individuals
- Manan Trivedi, nominee for Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district in 2010, 2012 and 2014[108]
Organizations
Newspapers and publications
Debates
A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh.[113]
A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, in Harrisburg.[114]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Vodvarka |
John Fetterman |
Katie McGinty |
Joe Sestak |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX 29/Opinion Savvy[115] | April 24–25, 2016 | 942 | ± 3.2% | – | 14% | 39% | 34% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling[116] | April 21–23, 2016 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 3% | 15% | 39% | 33% | – | 11% |
| Monmouth University[117] | April 17–19, 2016 | 302 | ± 5.6% | – | 4% | 39% | 39% | – | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[118] | April 11–18, 2016 | 510 | ± 5.3% | – | 8% | 27% | 38% | 2% | 25% |
| Harper Polling[119] | April 3–4, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | – | 9% | 31% | 41% | – | 19% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[120] | March 14–20, 2016 | 408 | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | 14% | 31% | 2% | 46% |
| Harper Polling[121] | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.6% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 33% | – | 35% |
| Harper Polling[122] | January 22–23, 2016 | 640 | ± 3.8% | – | 11% | 28% | 33% | – | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[123] | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | – | 14% | 22% | 29% | – | 35% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[124] | August 17–24, 2015 | 298 | ± ? | – | – | 13% | 16% | 5% | 66% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Pawlowski |
Joe Sestak |
Josh Shapiro |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris University[125] | May 8–16, 2015 | ? | ± ? | 11.1% | 44.7% | — | — | 44.3% |
| Harper Polling[126] | May 6–7, 2015 | 173 | ± 7.45% | 12% | 42% | 8% | — | 39% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kathleen Kane |
Joe Sestak |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[127] | February 22–23, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.38% | 47% | 24% | — | 29% |
Results
McGinty — 50–60%
McGinty — 40–50%
McGinty — <40%
Sestak — <40%
Sestak — 40–50%
Sestak — 60–70%
Fetterman — 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Katie McGinty | 669,774 | 42.50% | |
| Democratic | Joe Sestak | 513,221 | 32.57% | |
| Democratic | John Fetterman | 307,090 | 19.49% | |
| Democratic | Joseph Vodvarka | 85,837 | 5.45% | |
| Total votes | 1,575,922 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Edward T. "Ed" Clifford, III (L), accountant[128]
- Katie McGinty (D), former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and candidate for governor in 2014
- Pat Toomey (R), incumbent
Debates
| Dates | Location | Toomey | McGinty | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2016 | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | [129] |
| October 24, 2016 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | [130] |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[131] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[132] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[133] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[134] | Lean D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[135] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Katie McGinty (D) |
Edward Clifford (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[136] | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,845 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 49% | — | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[137] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 2,685 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov[138] | November 3–5, 2016 | 931 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 47% | — | 1% | 6% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs[139] | November 1–4, 2016 | 1,033 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | — | — | 11% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[140] | October 30–November 4, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
| Harper Polling[141] | November 2–3, 2016 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 6% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[142] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 2,454 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[143] | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,016 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | — | — | 12% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[144] | October 31–November 2, 2016 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey[145] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 2,177 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[146] | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 1,050 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | — | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University[147] | October 29–November 1, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 47% | 3% | — | 6% |
| CNN/ORC[148] | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 799 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | — | 1% | 1% |
| 917 RV | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | — | 1% | 2% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[149] | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | — | 1% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[150] | October 26–November 2, 2016 | 2,078 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[151] | October 25–31, 2016 | 2,255 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[152] | October 26–30, 2016 | 652 LV | ± 5.1% | 35% | 47% | 1% | 2% | 16% |
| 863 RV | ± 4.4% | 33% | 43% | — | 1% | 23% | ||
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[153] | October 25–30, 2016 | 3,217 | ± 1.7% | 41% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
| CBS News/YouGov[154] | October 26–28, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 44% | — | 2% | 13% |
| Emerson College[155] | October 25–26, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 45% | — | 7% | 5% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[156] | October 20–26, 2016 | 420 | ± 5.5% | 41% | 41% | — | 1% | 17% |
| New York Times Upshot/Siena College[157] | October 23–25, 2016 | 824 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
| Emerson College[158] | October 17–19, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | — | 5% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[159] | October 10–16, 2016 | 660 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | — | — | 6% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[160] | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,449 | ± 0.5% | 47% | 47% | — | — | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer[161] | October 7–11, 2016 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | — | 2% | 4% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid[162] | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,457 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 12% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[163] | October 4–9, 2016 | 764 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[164] | October 5–7, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | — | 1% | 15% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[165] | October 3–6, 2016 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | — | 2% | 6% |
| Monmouth University[166] | September 30–October 3, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | 3% | — | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[167] | September 28–October 2, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 6.1% | 35% | 41% | 2% | — | 22% |
| 813 RV | ± 4.8% | 31% | 36% | — | 11% | 22% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[168] | September 27–October 2, 2016 | 535 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 42% | — | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[169] | September 27–28, 2016 | 886 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 40% | 9% | — | 16% |
| 42% | 44% | — | — | 14% | ||||
| CNN/ORC[170] | September 20–25, 2016 | 771 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
| 895 RV | ||||||||
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[171] | September 23, 2016 | 949 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
| Harper Polling[172] | September 21–22, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 42% | 8% | — | 8% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[173] | September 19–23, 2016 | 486 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 40% | — | — | 20% |
| Mercyhurst University[174] | September 12–23, 2016 | 420 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[175] | September 10–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 12% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[176] | September 12–16, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[177] | August 29–September 7, 2016 | 778 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 1% | 7% |
| CBS News/YouGov[178] | August 30–September 2, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | — | 2% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[179] | August 30–31, 2016 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 44% | — | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[180] | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,194 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | — | — | 14% |
| Monmouth University[181] | August 26–29, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 45% | 6% | — | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[182] | August 25–29, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 5.6% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
| 736 RV | ± 4.6% | 37% | 36% | — | — | 27% | ||
| Emerson College[183] | August 25–28, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 39% | — | 5% | 10% |
| GBA Strategies[184] | August 21–28, 2016 | 881 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | — | 8% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[185] | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 815 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[186] | August 3–7, 2016 | 834 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 1% | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[187] | July 31–August 4, 2016 | 772 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | — | 2% | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[188] | July 29–August 1, 2016 | 389 LV | ± 6.3% | 38% | 39% | — | — | 23% |
| 661 RV | ± 4.8% | 30% | 38% | — | — | 32% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[189] | July 29–31, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 2.7% | 42% | 41% | — | — | 17% |
| Suffolk University[190] | July 25–27, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 43% | — | 1% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[191] | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 982 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 1% | 9% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[192] | July 5–10, 2016 | 829 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | 2% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[193] | June 22–23, 2016 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 39% | — | — | 21% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[194] | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 46% | 38% | — | — | 16% |
| Quinnipiac University[195] | June 8–19, 2016 | 950 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 40% | — | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[196] | June 8–9, 2016 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 42% | — | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[197] | June 3–5, 2016 | 1,106 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | — | — | 21% |
| Quinnipiac University[198] | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[199] | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 38% | — | 1% | 12% |
| Mercyhurst University[200] | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 34% | — | 2% | 13% |
| Harper Polling[201] | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 39% | — | — | 13% |
| Robert Morris University[202] | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 21% | — | — | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[123] | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 36% | — | — | 21% |
| Quinnipiac University[203] | September 25–October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 31% | — | 1% | 15% |
| Harper Polling[204] | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 34% | — | — | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[124] | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 35% | 28% | — | — | 38% |
| Quinnipiac University[205] | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 32% | — | 1% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[206] | May 30–June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | — | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
John Fetterman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst University[200] | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 49% | 31% | 2% | 15% |
| Harper Polling[201] | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 36% | — | 16% |
| Robert Morris University[202] | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 14% | — | 49% |
| Public Policy Polling[123] | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 34% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Joe Sestak (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[199] | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 39% | 1% | 10% |
| Mercyhurst University[200] | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
| Harper Polling[201] | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 41% | — | 13% |
| Robert Morris University[202] | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 18% | — | 48% |
| Public Policy Polling[123] | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
| Quinnipiac University[203] | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 1% | 13% |
| Harper Polling[204] | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | — | 15% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[124] | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 29% | — | 31% |
| Quinnipiac University[205] | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 33% | 1% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[207] | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[208] | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 31% | — | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
| Robert Morris University[125] | May 8–16, 2015 | 529 | ± 4.5% | 28.5% | 34.2% | — | 37.3% |
| Harper Polling[210] | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[211] | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 48% | 35% | 1% | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[212] | March 17–23, 2015 | 597 | ± 4.2% | 34% | 29% | — | 37% |
| Quinnipiac University[213] | Jan. 22–Feb. 1, 2015 | 881 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 35% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 40% | 36% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[206] | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Harper Polling[215] | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[216] | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| Quinnipiac University[217] | May 30 – June 4, 2013 | 1,032 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Chris Carney (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Vincent Hughes (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Kathleen Kane (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 44% | 38% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[206] | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 42% | — | 19% |
| Harper Polling[215] | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 44% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[216] | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 46% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Chris Matthews (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Michael Nutter (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Ed Pawlowski (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst University[200] | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 31% | 2% | 16% |
| Quinnipiac University[207] | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 52% | 28% | 1% | 19% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[208] | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 34% | 23% | — | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 34% | — | 22% |
| Harper Polling[210] | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 54% | 30% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Ed Rendell (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 41% | 44% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[210] | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 55% | 27% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[214] | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[206] | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 32% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Seth Williams (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[209] | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 33% | — | 23% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Pat Toomey (incumbent) | 2,951,702 | 48.72% | −2.29% | |
| Democratic | Katie McGinty | 2,865,012 | 47.29% | −1.70% | |
| Libertarian | Edward T. Clifford III | 235,142 | 3.88% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 6,655 | 0.11% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 6,058,511 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[220] | Katie McGinty
Democratic |
Patrick J. Toomey
Republican |
Edward T. Clifford III
Libertarian |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 14,593 | 30.72% | 30,492 | 64.19% | 2,418 | 5.09% | 15,899 | 33.47% | 47,503 |
| Allegheny | 357,450 | 55.25% | 261,316 | 40.39% | 28,260 | 4.37% | -96,134 | -14.86% | 647,026 |
| Armstrong | 8,387 | 26.71% | 20,793 | 66.22% | 2,220 | 7.07% | 12,406 | 39.51% | 31,400 |
| Beaver | 34,263 | 41.12% | 44,000 | 52.81% | 5,058 | 6.07% | 9,737 | 11.69% | 83,321 |
| Bedford | 4,356 | 18.58% | 17,739 | 75.68% | 1,344 | 5.73% | 13,383 | 57.10% | 23,439 |
| Berks | 77,028 | 42.93% | 95,466 | 53.21% | 6,919 | 3.86% | 18,438 | 10.28% | 179,413 |
| Blair | 15,107 | 27.57% | 36,533 | 66.68% | 3,150 | 5.75% | 21,426 | 39.11% | 54,790 |
| Bradford | 6,985 | 27.33% | 16,574 | 64.85% | 2,000 | 7.83% | 9,589 | 37.52% | 25,559 |
| Bucks | 157,709 | 46.46% | 175,898 | 51.82% | 5,845 | 1.72% | 18,189 | 5.36% | 339,452 |
| Butler | 28,715 | 29.72% | 62,425 | 64.62% | 5,465 | 5.66% | 33,710 | 34.89% | 96,605 |
| Cambria | 21,894 | 34.90% | 36,948 | 58.90% | 3,886 | 6.20% | 15,054 | 24.00% | 62,728 |
| Cameron | 593 | 27.53% | 1,390 | 64.53% | 171 | 7.94% | 797 | 37.00% | 2,154 |
| Carbon | 10,086 | 35.75% | 16,360 | 57.98% | 1,770 | 6.27% | 6,274 | 22.24% | 28,216 |
| Centre | 35,487 | 46.45% | 36,527 | 47.82% | 4,378 | 5.73% | 1,040 | 1.36% | 76,392 |
| Chester | 127,552 | 47.10% | 133,662 | 49.36% | 9,588 | 3.54% | 6,110 | 2.26% | 270,802 |
| Clarion | 4,931 | 28.27% | 11,310 | 64.83% | 1,204 | 6.90% | 6,379 | 36.57% | 17,445 |
| Clearfield | 9,454 | 27.80% | 22,128 | 65.06% | 2,429 | 7.14% | 12,674 | 37.26% | 34,011 |
| Clinton | 5,511 | 36.34% | 8,702 | 57.38% | 952 | 6.28% | 3,191 | 21.04% | 15,165 |
| Columbia | 9,819 | 34.94% | 16,292 | 57.97% | 1,991 | 7.08% | 6,473 | 23.03% | 28,102 |
| Crawford | 11,047 | 29.65% | 24,472 | 65.68% | 1,740 | 4.67% | 13,425 | 36.03% | 37,259 |
| Cumberland | 44,796 | 36.74% | 71,638 | 58.75% | 5,509 | 4.52% | 26,842 | 22.01% | 121,943 |
| Dauphin | 62,551 | 48.61% | 63,740 | 49.54% | 2,383 | 1.85% | 1,189 | 0.92% | 128,674 |
| Delaware | 163,377 | 55.64% | 126,300 | 43.01% | 3,948 | 1.34% | -37,077 | -12.63% | 293,625 |
| Elk | 4,509 | 31.48% | 8,703 | 60.76% | 1,111 | 7.76% | 4,194 | 29.28% | 14,323 |
| Erie | 56,846 | 46.32% | 60,948 | 49.66% | 4,930 | 4.02% | 4,102 | 3.34% | 122,724 |
| Fayette | 20,547 | 38.62% | 29,699 | 55.82% | 2,958 | 5.56% | 9,152 | 17.20% | 53,204 |
| Forest | 708 | 29.82% | 1,502 | 63.27% | 164 | 6.91% | 794 | 33.45% | 2,374 |
| Franklin | 17,827 | 25.54% | 48,658 | 69.72% | 3,309 | 4.74% | 30,831 | 44.17% | 69,794 |
| Fulton | 1,025 | 15.23% | 5,456 | 81.06% | 250 | 3.71% | 4,431 | 65.83% | 6,731 |
| Greene | 5,692 | 36.93% | 8,826 | 57.26% | 896 | 5.81% | 3,134 | 20.33% | 15,414 |
| Huntingdon | 5,105 | 26.06% | 13,078 | 66.76% | 1,406 | 7.18% | 7,973 | 40.70% | 19,589 |
| Indiana | 12,592 | 33.32% | 22,245 | 58.86% | 2,955 | 7.82% | 9,653 | 25.54% | 37,792 |
| Jefferson | 4,160 | 21.54% | 13,706 | 70.95% | 1,451 | 7.51% | 9,546 | 49.42% | 19,317 |
| Juniata | 2,153 | 20.66% | 7,657 | 73.47% | 612 | 5.87% | 5,504 | 52.81% | 10,422 |
| Lackawanna | 53,936 | 52.93% | 40,519 | 39.76% | 7,455 | 7.32% | -13,417 | -13.17% | 101,910 |
| Lancaster | 89,922 | 37.07% | 142,774 | 58.85% | 9,909 | 4.08% | 52,852 | 21.79% | 242,605 |
| Lawrence | 15,289 | 37.96% | 22,674 | 56.29% | 2,317 | 5.75% | 7,385 | 18.33% | 40,280 |
| Lebanon | 19,079 | 31.01% | 39,386 | 64.02% | 3,060 | 4.97% | 20,307 | 33.01% | 61,525 |
| Lehigh | 77,232 | 48.25% | 76,216 | 47.61% | 6,627 | 4.14% | -1,016 | -0.63% | 160,075 |
| Luzerne | 56,477 | 42.89% | 66,551 | 50.54% | 8,650 | 6.57% | 10,074 | 7.65% | 131,678 |
| Lycoming | 14,187 | 28.06% | 33,015 | 65.29% | 3,365 | 6.65% | 18,828 | 37.23% | 50,567 |
| Mckean | 3,987 | 24.73% | 11,530 | 71.52% | 605 | 3.75% | 7,543 | 46.79% | 16,122 |
| Mercer | 19,193 | 37.05% | 30,567 | 59.00% | 2,046 | 3.95% | 11,374 | 21.95% | 51,806 |
| Mifflin | 4,031 | 22.13% | 13,089 | 71.87% | 1,093 | 6.00% | 9,058 | 49.73% | 18,213 |
| Monroe | 34,280 | 51.32% | 30,743 | 46.03% | 1,768 | 2.65% | -3,537 | -5.30% | 66,791 |
| Montgomery | 237,353 | 54.90% | 189,574 | 43.85% | 5,431 | 1.26% | -47,779 | -11.05% | 432,358 |
| Montour | 2,898 | 33.89% | 5,066 | 59.25% | 586 | 6.85% | 2,168 | 25.36% | 8,550 |
| Northampton | 64,151 | 45.86% | 72,172 | 51.59% | 3,566 | 2.55% | 8,021 | 5.73% | 139,889 |
| Northumberland | 11,117 | 31.28% | 21,826 | 61.42% | 2,592 | 7.29% | 10,709 | 30.14% | 35,535 |
| Perry | 4,962 | 23.53% | 14,898 | 70.64% | 1,231 | 5.84% | 9,936 | 47.11% | 21,091 |
| Philadelphia | 560,421 | 81.79% | 116,714 | 17.03% | 8,030 | 1.17% | -443,707 | -64.76% | 685,165 |
| Pike | 9,329 | 36.39% | 15,192 | 59.27% | 1,113 | 4.34% | 5,863 | 22.87% | 25,634 |
| Potter | 1,387 | 18.01% | 5,990 | 77.79% | 323 | 4.19% | 4,603 | 59.78% | 7,700 |
| Schuylkill | 19,539 | 31.45% | 37,757 | 60.77% | 4,832 | 7.78% | 18,218 | 29.32% | 62,128 |
| Snyder | 4,299 | 26.40% | 10,867 | 66.74% | 1,116 | 6.85% | 6,568 | 40.34% | 16,282 |
| Somerset | 8,340 | 23.34% | 25,470 | 71.28% | 1,923 | 5.38% | 17,130 | 47.94% | 35,733 |
| Sullivan | 867 | 28.03% | 2,020 | 65.31% | 206 | 6.66% | 1,153 | 37.28% | 3,093 |
| Susquehanna | 5,535 | 28.76% | 11,996 | 62.33% | 1,716 | 8.92% | 6,461 | 33.57% | 19,247 |
| Tioga | 3,992 | 21.97% | 13,418 | 73.83% | 764 | 4.20% | 9,426 | 51.87% | 18,174 |
| Union | 6,092 | 34.81% | 10,568 | 60.39% | 841 | 4.81% | 4,476 | 25.58% | 17,501 |
| Venango | 6,989 | 30.11% | 14,581 | 62.83% | 1,638 | 7.06% | 7,592 | 32.71% | 23,208 |
| Warren | 5,124 | 28.14% | 12,130 | 66.60% | 958 | 5.26% | 7,006 | 38.47% | 18,212 |
| Washington | 38,133 | 37.79% | 56,952 | 56.44% | 5,824 | 5.77% | 18,819 | 18.65% | 100,909 |
| Wayne | 7,487 | 31.42% | 14,538 | 61.01% | 1,803 | 7.57% | 7,051 | 29.59% | 23,828 |
| Westmoreland | 62,981 | 34.94% | 107,532 | 59.65% | 9,745 | 5.41% | 44,551 | 24.72% | 180,258 |
| Wyoming | 4,154 | 31.79% | 7,844 | 60.03% | 1,068 | 8.17% | 3,690 | 28.24% | 13,066 |
| York | 69,394 | 33.68% | 126,350 | 61.33% | 10,271 | 4.99% | 56,956 | 27.65% | 206,015 |
| Pennsylvania | 2,865,012 | 47.34% | 2,951,702 | 48.77% | 235,142 | 3.89% | 86,690 | 1.43% | 6,051,856 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
- Luzerne (largest municipality: Wilkes-Barre)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Lehigh (largest municipality: Allentown)
- Monroe (largest municipality: East Stroudsburg)