2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina
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The 2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Both major parties held their primaries on June 14.
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November 8, 2016
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   Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Scott won re-election to a first full term in office.[1]
This was the second U.S. Senate election in South Carolina (and the second of three consecutive elections for this seat) where both major party nominees were black, and the third overall since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment.[a]
Background
Two-term Republican senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013 to become President of The Heritage Foundation and U.S. Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st congressional district was appointed to replace him by Governor Nikki Haley.[2] Scott subsequently won the special election in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term.
Republican primary
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Thomas Dixon, pastor and community activist (also running with Green Party nomination)[3]
Declined
- Joyce Dickerson, Richland County Councilwoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for reelection)[4][5]
General election
Candidates
Debates
| Dates | Location | Scott | Dixon | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24, 2016 | Greenville, South Carolina | Participant | Participant | [8] |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[11] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[13] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Thomas Dixon (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[14] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 38% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[15] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,642 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[16] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,583 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[17] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,501 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[18] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,588 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[19] | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,762 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
| Starboard Communications (R)[20] | September 7–9, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.8% | 58% | 22% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | August 9–10, 2016 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 45% | 30%[22] | 6%[23] | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
with Joyce Dickerson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Joyce Dickerson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[24] | November 7–8, 2015 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 53% | 25% | 23% |
with Bakari Sellers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Bakari Sellers (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
with Leon Lott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Leon Lott (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 27% | 19% |
with Jim Hodges
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Jim Hodges (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 32% | 15% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Scott (incumbent) | 1,241,609 | 60.57% | −0.55% | |
| Democratic | Thomas Dixon[28] | 757,022 | 36.93% | −0.16% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Bledsoe[29] | 37,482 | 1.83% | N/A | |
| American | Michael Scarborough | 11,923 | 0.58% | −1.17% | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,857 | 0.09% | +0.05% | |
| Total votes | 2,049,893 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Calhoun (largest town: St. Matthews)
- Clarendon (Largest city: Manning)
By congressional district
Scott won six of seven congressional districts.[30]
| District | Scott | Dixon | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 65% | 33% | Mark Sanford |
| 2nd | 63% | 34% | Joe Wilson |
| 3rd | 71% | 27% | Jeff Duncan |
| 4th | 67% | 30% | Trey Gowdy |
| 5th | 59% | 38% | Mick Mulvaney |
| 6th | 35% | 63% | Jim Clyburn |
| 7th | 61% | 37% | Tom Rice |