2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
← 2014
November 6, 2018
2022 →
 
Nominee Jared Polis Walker Stapleton
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Lang Sias
Popular vote 1,348,888 1,080,801
Percentage 53.42% 42.80%
Polis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stapleton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

Close

The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.[4]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

  • Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results.[25]

  • Cary Kennedy (11,700; 49.2%)
  • Jared Polis (7,784; 32.7%)
  • Mike Johnston (2,086; 8.8%)
  • Noel Ginsburg (433; 1.8%), dropped out of race
  • Erik Underwood (100; 0.4%)
  • Uncommitted (1,668; 7%)

Endorsements

Jared Polis

Organizations

  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado – International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund

Federal officials

State Senators

State Representatives

County Commissioners

Mayors

City Councilors

Others

Mike Johnston

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

  • Gabrielle Aragon, former San Luis Council member
  • Albus Brooks, Denver City Council President
  • Lisa Flores, Denver Public School Board of Education member
  • Tracy Johnson, Academy District 20 Board of Education member
  • Jeanne McQueeney, Eagle County Commissioner[31]
  • Theresa Peña, formerDenver Public Schools Board of Education member[32]
  • Christina Rinderle, former Durango Mayor
  • Wellington Webb, former Mayor of Denver[30]

Organizations

  • Students for Education Reform[33]

Newspapers

Individuals

Cary Kennedy

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Donna Lynne

State legislators

  • Janet Buckner, State Representative
  • Jean Dubofsky, former state Supreme Court Justice
  • JoAnn Ginal, State Representative
  • Lucia Guzman, State Senator

Local officials

  • Leanna Clark, vice chancellor for the University of Colorado Denver
  • Kathy Maloney Green, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s former spokeswoman
  • Jacque Montgomery, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s spokeswoman
  • Marguerite Salazar, Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies executive director
  • Tamra Ward, Denver Zoo chief external relations officer
Ed Perlmutter (withdrawn)

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Johnston		 Cary
Kennedy		 Donna
Lynne		 Jared
Polis		 Other Undecided
Strategies 360[43] May 29 – June 6, 2018 387 ± 5.0% 12% 23% 2% 34% – 29%
Magellan Strategies (R)[44] May 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 9% 18% 3% 31% – 39%
TargetPoint/GQR[45] March 2018 – – – 18% – 18% 12% 52%
Magellan Strategies (R)[46] March 20–23, 2018 410 ± 4.8% 8% 23% 5% 27% 1% 36%
University of Colorado Boulder[47] November 9–15, 2017 357 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 4% 24% 2%[48] 58%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Polis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kennedy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Johnston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jared Polis 282,725 44.46
Democratic Cary Kennedy 157,098 24.71
Democratic Mike Johnston 149,717 23.55
Democratic Donna Lynne 46,316 7.28
Total votes 635,856 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties.[71]

Pueblo County

Douglas County

Endorsements

George Brauchler (withdrawn)

Individuals

Tom Tancredo (withdrawn)

Political Commentators

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Cynthia
Coffman		 Greg
Lopez		 Victor
Mitchell		 Doug
Robinson		 Walker
Stapleton		 Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[74] June 6–7, 2018 593 ± 4.0% – 10% 23% 4% 36% – 27%
TargetPoint/GQR[45] March 2018 – – 7% – – – 15% 16% 62%
Magellan Strategies (R)[75] February 26–27, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 13% – 5% 8% 26% 9% 39%
Close
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 George
Brauchler		 Cynthia
Coffman		 Victor
Mitchell		 Doug
Robinson		 Walker
Stapleton		 Tom
Tancredo		 Undecided
University of Colorado Boulder[47] November 9–15, 2017 250 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 1% 1% 8% 25% 54%
Braynard Group (R)[76] September 26–28, 2017 400 ± 3.2% 7% 6% 1% 0.3% 8.5% 22% 54%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Stapleton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mitchell
  •   40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Walker Stapleton 239,415 47.66
Republican Victor Mitchell 151,365 30.13
Republican Greg Lopez 66,330 13.20
Republican Doug Robinson 45,245 9.01
Total votes 502,355 100.0
Close

Third party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

More information Dates, Location ...
Dates Location Polis Stapleton Link
October 6, 2018 Grand Junction, Colorado Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Lean D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[83] Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[84] Likely D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[85] Lean D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[87] Lean D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[88] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[89][a] Lean D November 5, 2018
Politico[90] Lean D November 5, 2018
Governing[91] Lean D November 5, 2018
Close
Notes
  1. [a]
    The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Endorsements

Jared Polis (D)

Organizations

  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund

Federal officials

State officials

State Senators

State Representatives

County Commissioners

Mayors

City Councilors

Others

Walker Stapleton (R)

Presidents of the United States

Vice Presidents of the United States

Federal officials

State officials

State Senators

State Representatives

Local officials

Mayors

District attorneys

  • Brett Barkey (14th Judicial District)[123]
  • Jim Bullock (16th Judicial District)[123]
  • Jeff Cheney (9th Judicial District)[123]
  • Molly Chilson (11th Judicial District)[123]
  • Brittny Lewton (13th Judicial District)[123]
  • Dan May (4th Judicial District)[123]
  • Cliff Riedel (8th Judicial District)[123]
  • Michael J. Rourke (19th Judicial District)[123]
  • Dan Rubinstein (21st Judicial District)[123]
  • Josh Vogel (15th Judicial District)[123]
  • Pete Weir (1st Judicial District)[123]

Sheriffs

Others

  • Doug Robinson, businessman[124]
  • Nick Rogers, president of the Denver Police Protective Association[123]

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jared
Polis
(D)		 Walker
Stapleton
(R)		 Scott
Helker
(L)		 Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies[135] October 29–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% 3% 1%[136] 11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns[137] October 25–30, 2018 517 ± 4.3% 50% 42% 4% 1%[136] 4%
University of Colorado/YouGov[138] October 12–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 54% 42% 3% – 2%
Magellan Strategies[139] October 8–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 40% 4% 0%[140] 9%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies[141] September 18–20, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 40% 1% 0%[140] 11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS[142] August 15 – September 19, 2018 1,585 – 44% 33% – – 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party)[143] June 27–28, 2018 608 – 47% 40% – – 13%
Strategies 360[43] May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 37% – 3% 18%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Cary Kennedy

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Cary
Kennedy (D)		 Walker
Stapleton (R)		 Other Undecided
Strategies 360[144] May 23 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 38% 4% 15%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA)[145] May 8–10, 2018 883 ± 3.3% 52% 37% 11%
Close

with Tom Tancredo

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jared
Polis (D)		 Tom
Tancredo (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis[146] December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 46% 38% – 16%
Braynard Group (R)[76] September 26–28, 2017 1,000 ± 3.2% 25% 25% 3% 47%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Cary
Kennedy (D)		 Tom
Tancredo (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)[146] December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 45% 38% – 17%
Keating Research (D)[147] November 9–13, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 50% 34% 3% 13%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Johnston (D)		 Tom
Tancredo (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)[146] December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 39% 18%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Donna
Lynne (D)		 Tom
Tancredo (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)[146] December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 38% 19%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2018 Colorado gubernatorial election[148]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jared Polis 1,348,888 53.42% +4.12%
Republican Walker Stapleton 1,080,801 42.80% −3.15%
Libertarian Scott Helker 69,519 2.75% +0.81%
Unity Bill Hammons 25,854 1.02% —
Majority 268,087 10.62% +7.27%
Turnout 2,525,062
Democratic hold
Close

By county

Despite losing the state, Stapleton won 38 of 64 counties.[149]

More information County, Jared Polis Democratic ...
County Jared Polis
Democratic		 Walker Stapleton
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 93,449 54.57% 69,465 40.57% 8,321 4.86% 23,984 14.00% 171,235
Alamosa 3,039 50.31% 2,696 44.63% 305 5.06% 343 5.68% 6,040
Arapahoe 155,056 57.18% 106,833 39.40% 9,251 3.42% 48,223 17.78% 271,140
Archuleta 2,800 41.32% 3,736 55.13% 240 3.55% -936 -13.81% 6,776
Baca 331 17.67% 1,454 77.63% 88 4.70% -1,123 -59.96% 1,873
Bent 638 34.10% 1,094 58.47% 139 7.43% -456 -24.37% 1,871
Boulder 133,116 75.52% 38,423 21.80% 4,723 2.68% 94,693 53.72% 176,262
Broomfield 21,405 59.21% 13,582 37.57% 1,161 3.22% 7,823 21.64% 36,148
Chaffee 5,461 49.95% 5,018 45.90% 454 4.15% 443 4.05% 10,933
Cheyenne 138 14.08% 809 82.55% 33 3.37% -671 -68.47% 980
Clear Creek 2,932 54.54% 2,215 41.20% 229 4.26% 717 13.34% 5,376
Conejos 1,652 46.65% 1,756 49.59% 133 3.76% -104 -2.94% 3,541
Costilla 1,012 62.90% 510 31.70% 87 5.40% 502 31.20% 1,609
Crowley 400 28.82% 888 63.98% 100 7.20% -488 -35.16% 1,388
Custer 895 31.26% 1,869 65.28% 99 3.46% -974 -34.02% 2,863
Delta 4,817 31.84% 9,699 64.12% 610 4.04% -4,882 -32.28% 15,126
Denver 238,762 77.48% 60,151 19.52% 9,245 3.00% 178,611 57.96% 308,158
Dolores 270 22.80% 868 73.31% 46 3.89% -598 -50.51% 1,184
Douglas 71,573 40.52% 99,123 56.11% 5,945 3.37% -27,750 -15.59% 176,641
Eagle 13,802 61.82% 7,804 34.95% 720 3.23% 5,998 26.87% 22,326
El Paso 109,154 39.50% 155,006 56.10% 12,132 4.40% -45,852 -16.60% 276,292
Elbert 3,242 22.18% 10,859 74.28% 517 3.54% -7,617 -52.10% 14,618
Fremont 6,022 30.75% 12,574 64.21% 985 5.04% -6,552 -33.46% 19,581
Garfield 11,791 49.01% 11,436 47.53% 831 3.46% 355 1.48% 24,058
Gilpin 1,809 53.71% 1,407 41.77% 152 4.52% 402 11.94% 3,368
Grand 3,596 46.43% 3,837 49.54% 312 4.03% -241 -3.11% 7,745
Gunnison 5,526 62.90% 2,927 33.32% 332 3.78% 2,599 29.58% 8,785
Hinsdale 218 39.21% 318 57.19% 20 3.60% -100 -17.98% 556
Huerfano 1,798 49.79% 1,647 45.61% 166 4.60% 151 4.18% 3,611
Jackson 176 22.62% 564 72.49% 38 4.89% -388 -49.87% 778
Jefferson 166,455 54.40% 127,038 41.51% 12,504 4.09% 39,417 12.89% 305,997
Kiowa 94 12.25% 638 83.18% 35 4.57% -544 -70.93% 767
Kit Carson 547 17.71% 2,417 78.24% 125 4.05% -1,870 -60.53% 3,089
La Plata 15,859 55.77% 11,727 41.31% 798 2.92% 4,132 14.46% 28,384
Lake 1,678 58.47% 998 34.77% 194 6.76% 680 23.70% 2,870
Larimer 98,361 54.75% 75,002 41.75% 6,273 3.50% 21,359 13.00% 179,636
Las Animas 2,949 47.26% 3,008 48.21% 282 4.53% -59 -0.95% 6,239
Lincoln 358 17.26% 1,619 78.06% 97 4.68% -1,261 -60.80% 2,074
Logan 1,867 21.74% 6,349 73.93% 372 4.33% -4,482 -52.19% 8,588
Mesa 23,873 35.33% 41,193 60.96% 2,500 3.71% -17,320 -25.63% 67,566
Mineral 259 43.02% 319 52.99% 24 3.99% -60 -9.97% 602
Moffat 946 17.59% 4,228 78.63% 203 3.78% -3,282 -61.04% 5,377
Montezuma 4,403 37.59% 6,933 59.18% 288 3.23% -2,530 -21.59% 11,714
Montrose 5,855 30.92% 12,466 65.83% 636 3.25% -6,611 -34.91% 18,937
Morgan 2,844 26.74% 7,329 68.92% 460 4.34% -4,485 -42.18% 10,633
Otero 2,913 39.16% 4,076 54.80% 449 6.04% -1,163 -15.64% 7,438
Ouray 1,868 58.52% 1,237 38.75% 87 2.73% 632 19.77% 3,192
Park 3,645 38.28% 5,452 57.25% 425 4.47% -1,807 -18.97% 9,522
Phillips 397 19.31% 1,583 76.99% 76 3.70% -1,186 -57.68% 2,056
Pitkin 7,244 73.69% 2,354 23.95% 232 2.36% 4,890 49.74% 9,830
Prowers 1,080 26.02% 2,898 69.83% 172 4.15% -1,818 -43.81% 4,150
Pueblo 33,674 50.67% 29,545 44.46% 3,237 4.87% 4,129 6.21% 66,456
Rio Blanco 488 15.98% 2,473 81.00% 92 3.02% -1,985 -65.02% 3,053
Rio Grande 1,912 38.77% 2,795 56.68% 224 4.55% -883 -17.91% 4,931
Routt 8,163 61.11% 4,787 35.84% 407 3.05% 3,376 25.27% 13,357
Saguache 1,529 56.89% 1,014 37.98% 127 5.13% 515 18.91% 2,670
San Juan 271 60.22% 167 37.11% 12 2.67% 104 23.11% 450
San Miguel 3,047 74.59% 923 22.59% 115 2.82% 2,124 52.00% 4,085
Sedgwick 290 23.98% 859 71.05% 60 4.97% -569 -47.07% 1,209
Summit 9,499 66.76% 4,243 29.82% 487 3.42% 5,256 36.94% 14,229
Teller 3,986 30.95% 8,409 65.31% 481 3.74% -4,423 -34.36% 12,876
Washington 294 12.30% 2,004 83.88% 91 3.82% -1,710 -71.58% 2,389
Weld 46,653 37.21% 72,886 58.13% 5,833 4.66% -26,233 -20.92% 125,372
Yuma 697 16.99% 3,264 79.57% 141 3.44% -2,567 -62.58% 4,102
Totals1,348,88853.42%1,080,80142.80%95,3733.78%268,08710.62%2,525,062
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won four of seven congressional districts.[150]

More information District, Stapleton ...
District Stapleton Polis Representative
1st 24% 73% Diana DeGette
2nd 34% 62% Joe Neguse
3rd 50% 46% Scott Tipton
4th 58% 38% Ken Buck
5th 57% 39% Doug Lamborn
6th 42% 54% Jason Crow
7th 38% 57% Ed Perlmutter
Close

References

External links

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