2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
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November 6, 2018
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 County results Armstrong: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Schneider: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018 that he would run for re-election to a fourth term, he later expressed an intention to run for the United States Senate instead.[1][2][3] On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.
Republican primary
State Senator Tom Campbell stated that he intended to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer ran for re-election, and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer did not run for re-election.[4] Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.[5]
Candidates
Nominated
- Kelly Armstrong, state senator[6]
Declared
Withdrew
- Tom Campbell, state senator[9]
Declined
- Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[2][3]
- Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party[10]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tiffany Abentroth |
Kelly Armstrong |
Tom Campbell |
Julie Fedorchak |
DuWayne Hendrickson |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[11] | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 1% | 13% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 47% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 37,054 | 56.23 | |
| Republican | Tom Campbell (withdrawn) | 17,692 | 26.85 | |
| Republican | Tiffany Abentroth | 5,877 | 8.92 | |
| Republican | Paul Schaffner | 5,203 | 7.90 | |
| Republican | Write-Ins | 75 | 0.11 | |
| Total votes | 65,901 | 100.00 | ||
Democratic-NPL primary
The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention on March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access was actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.[12]
Candidates
Endorsed
- Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate[13][14]
Withdrawn
- John Grabinger, state senator[15][14]
- Ben Hanson, former state representative[16][12]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 33,545 | 99.78 | |
| Democratic–NPL | Write-Ins | 74 | 0.22 | |
| Total votes | 33,619 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report[18] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |
Debates
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Armstrong (R) |
Mac Schneider (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX News[23] | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 32% | 3% | 12% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates[24] | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
| FOX News[25] | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
| 801 V | ± 3.5% | 49% | 33% | 2% | 14% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates[26] | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 31% | – | 14% |
| FOX News[27] | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 15% |
| 804 V | ± 3.5% | 47% | 32% | 2% | 17% | ||
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[28] | August 26–28, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 32% | – | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[29] | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 35% | – | 19% |
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[30] | May 13–14, 2018 | 509 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 26% | – | 26% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 193,568 | 60.20% | −8.93% | |
| Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 114,377 | 35.57% | +11.82% | |
| Independent | Charles Tuttle | 13,066 | 4.06% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 521 | 0.16% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 321,532 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Cass (largest city: Fargo)
- Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
- Benson (largest CDP: Fort Totten)
- Ransom (largest city: Lisbon)
- Steele (largest city: Finley)