2018 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative from the state of Vermont from Vermont's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on August 14. Peter Welch, a Democrat won reelection to a seventh term, defeating Republican Anya Tynio.
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November 6, 2018
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  Welch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tynio: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Daniel Freilich, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, Navy medical doctor, physician at the VA Medical Center
- Peter Welch, incumbent U.S. representative
Withdrawn
- Ben Mitchell, Liberty Union nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004, governor of Vermont in 2010 and for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2012 (Withdrew, endorsed Freilich)[1]
Debates & forums
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch (incumbent) | 55,939 | 83.94 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Freilich | 7,881 | 11.83 | |
| Democratic | Benjamin Mitchell (withdrawn) | 2,676 | 4.02 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 142 | 0.21 | |
| Total votes | 66,638 | 100.0 | ||
| N/A | Spoiled votes | 52 | ||
| N/A | Blank votes | 2,927 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remmington News Service, perennial candidate
- Anya Tynio, sales representative for the Newport Daily Express[3]
Debates & forums
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | H. Brooke Paige | 14,721 | 59.89 | |
| Republican | Anya Tynio | 8,485 | 34.52 | |
| Republican | Peter Welch (write-in) | 923 | 3.76 | |
| Republican | Write-ins (other) | 450 | 1.83 | |
| Total votes | 24,579 | 100.0 | ||
| N/A | Spoiled votes | 97 | ||
| N/A | Blank votes | 11,499 | ||
Post-primary
H. Brooke Paige, who also won the Republican nominations for U.S. Senate, state attorney general, state secretary of state, state treasurer and state auditor, withdrew from all but the secretary of state race on August 24 in order to allow the Vermont Republican State Committee to name replacement candidates.[4] Anya Tynio, who came in second place in the primary, was nominated to be the Republican nominee.[5]
Progressive primary
Candidates
Write-in
- Daniel Freilich, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, Navy medical doctor, physician at the VA Medical Center (also running in Democratic primary)
Debates & forums
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Peter Welch (write-in) | 237 | 62.04 | |
| Progressive | Daniel Freilich (write-in) | 73 | 19.11 | |
| Progressive | Write-ins (other) | 72 | 18.85 | |
| Total votes | 643 | 100.0 | ||
| N/A | Spoiled votes | 1 | ||
| N/A | Blank votes | 260 | ||
Liberty Union/Socialist nomination
The Liberty Union Party serves as the Vermont affiliate of the Socialist Party for federal-level elections.
Candidates
Declared
- Laura S. Potter[7]
Withdrawn
- Ben Mitchell, Liberty Union nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004, governor of Vermont in 2010 and for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2012 (also ran in Democratic primary before dropping out)[8]
United States Marijuana nomination
Candidates
Declared
America First nomination
Candidates
Declared
- Paul Young[10] (failed to appear on ballot)
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[14] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[15] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[16] | Safe D | November 7, 2018 |
| CNN[17] | Safe D | October 31, 2018 |
| Politico[18] | Safe D | November 2, 2018 |
Polling
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch (incumbent) | 188,547 | 69.20% | −13.31% | |
| Republican | Anya Tynio | 70,705 | 25.95% | N/A | |
| Marijuana | Cris Ericson | 9,110 | 3.34% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Laura Potter | 3,924 | 1.44% | −7.74% | |
| Write-in | 165 | 0.07% | -0.39% | ||
| Total votes | 272,451 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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