2018 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
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November 6, 2018
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 County results Gianforte: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Williams: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. representative[1]
Primary results
Gianforte—100%
Gianforte—>90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Gianforte (incumbent) | 135,225 | 100 | |
| Total votes | 135,225 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Heenan, attorney[2]
- Grant Kier, former executive director of the Five Valleys Land Trust[3]
- Jared Pettinato, attorney[4]
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative[5]
Withdrew
- Lynda Moss, former state senator (but remained on the ballot)[6][7]
Primary results
Williams—50–60%
Williams—40–50%
Williams—<40%
Heenan—<40%
Heenan—40–50%
Heenan—50–60%
Kier—<40%
Kier—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | 37,158 | 33.5 | |
| Democratic | John Heenan | 35,163 | 31.7 | |
| Democratic | Grant Kier | 26,835 | 24.2 | |
| Democratic | Lynda Moss (withdrawn) | 5,592 | 5.0 | |
| Democratic | John Meyer | 3,695 | 3.3 | |
| Democratic | Jared Pettinato | 2,440 | 2.2 | |
| Total votes | 110,883 | 100 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Elinor Swanson, attorney[9]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 29, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 6, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report[11] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Greg Gianforte (R)
Federal politicians
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
Organizations
- Montana Shooting Sports Association[13]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[14]
Kathleen Williams (D)
Federal politicians
- Jon Tester, U.S. senator (D-MT)[15]
Newspapers
Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees District 11[19]
- Montana AFL-CIO[20]
- Montana Sportsmen Alliance[21]
- Montana State Council of Professional Fire Fighters[22]
Organizations
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Gianforte (R) |
Kathleen Williams (D) |
Elinor Swanson (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[31] | November 2–4, 2018 | 879 | – | 52% | 44% | 2% | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing[32] | October 24–26, 2018 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | – | – | 3% |
| University of Montana[33] | October 10–18, 2018 | 533 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 46% | 2% | – | 7% |
| Montana State University Billings[34] | October 8–13, 2018 | 471 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 41% | 3% | – | 12% |
| Montana State University Bozeman[35] | September 15 – October 6, 2018 | 2,079 | ± 2.2% | 48% | 40% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing[36] | September 19–22, 2018 | 710 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 8% |
| AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)[37] | September 6–16, 2018 | 950 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 7% |
| University of Montana[38] | August 13–31, 2018 | 466 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 51% | 3% | – | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[39] | June 11–13, 2018 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | – | – | 8% |
Results
Gianforte defeated Kathleen Williams on November 6, 2018.[40] Despite Williams's loss, she won the highest percent of the vote for any Democrat since Pat Williams (her father) in 1994, making it the closest a Democrat has come to winning the house seat in Montana since 1994.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Gianforte (incumbent) | 256,661 | 50.88% | +0.93% | |
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | 233,284 | 46.25% | +1.88% | |
| Libertarian | Elinor Swanson | 14,476 | 2.87% | −2.81% | |
| Total votes | 504,421 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||