2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
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The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
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November 3, 2020
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  Rosendale: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Williams: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.[2]
As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[3]
In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.
As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014[4]
Eliminated in primary
- Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party[5]
- John Evankovich, electrical contractor[6]
- Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative[7]
- Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran[6]
- Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, former state senator, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014[8]
Declined
- Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. representative (running for governor)[2]
- Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor)[9]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former lieutenant governor of Montana[10]
Endorsements
Matt Rosendale
Executive officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[11]
Individuals
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[12]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump[13]
Organizations
Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Russell Fagg |
Joe Dooling |
Timothy Johnson |
Al Olszewski |
Denny Rehberg |
Matt Rosendale |
Corey Stapleton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings[16] | October 7–16, 2019 | 99 (LV) | – | – | 1% | <1% | – | – | 32% | 22% | 44% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[17][A] | February 24–26, 2019 | 501 (V) | ± 4.4% | 24% | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 15% |
| – | – | 39% | 46% | – | 13% | ||||||
| 18% | 10% | – | 51% | – | 18% | ||||||
| 15% | – | 31% | 37% | – | 16% | ||||||
| 17% | – | – | 48% | 19% | 16% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Rosendale | 104,575 | 48.31% | |
| Republican | Corey Stapleton | 71,902 | 33.21% | |
| Republican | Debra Lamm | 14,462 | 6.68% | |
| Republican | Joe Dooling | 13,726 | 6.34% | |
| Republican | Mark McGinley | 7,818 | 3.61% | |
| Republican | John Evankovich | 3,983 | 1.84% | |
| Total votes | 216,466 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[19]
Eliminated in primary
- Tom Winter, state representative[20]
Withdrew
- Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[21]
Declined
- Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate[22]
- Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017
Endorsements
Kathleen Williams
State politicians
- Dick Barrett, State Representative
- Willis Curdy, State Representative
- Ann Mary Dussault, former state representative and former House Majority Leader
- Jen Gross, State Senator
- Tom Jacobson, State Senator
- Jessica Karjala, State Representative
- Kathy Kelker, State Representative
- Emma Kerr-Carpenter, State Representative
- Jasmine Krotkov, State Representative
- Margaret McDonald, state senator, Senate Minority Whip, and former state representative
- Mary McNally, State Senator
- Diane Sands, state senator and former state representative
Local politicians
- Mike Kadas, former mayor of Missoula (1996–2006)
Individuals
- Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district[21]
Local unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Montana Council 9[23]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190[24]
- Montana Federation of Public Employees[25]
Organizations
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- League of Conservation Voters
- Montana Conservation Voters
- Montana Sportsmen Alliance PAC
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Organization for Women
- New Democrat Coalition Action Fund[26]
Tom Winter
Individuals
Organizations
- Blue America[28]
- DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare[29]
- Montana Progressive Democrats[30]
- Our Revolution[31]
- Progressive Rising[32]
- Sunrise Movement - Montana chapter[33]
Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rains |
Kathleen Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings[34] | October 7–16, 2019 | 40 (LV) | – | 6% | 69% | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | 133,436 | 89.47% | |
| Democratic | Tom Winter | 15,698 | 10.53% | |
| Total votes | 149,134 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Lean R | October 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Lean R | October 1, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Lean R | October 1, 2020 |
| Politico[40] | Lean R | September 9, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[41] | Lean R | September 25, 2020 |
| RCP[42] | Tossup | October 26, 2020 |
| Niskanen[43] | Lean R | July 26, 2020 |
| The Economist[44] | Tossup | October 2, 2020 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Kathleen Williams (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings[45] | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6%[b] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[46] | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | 4%[c] |
| Strategies 360[47] | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 9%[d] |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[48] | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47%[e] | 47% | 6%[f] |
| 45%[g] | 49% | 6%[h] | ||||
| 49%[i] | 45% | 6%[j] | ||||
| Montana State University Bozeman[49] | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 46% | 6%[k] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[50] | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 41% | 44% | 13%[l] |
| Expedition Strategies (D)[51][B] | August 22–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 51% | 1%[m] |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[52][A] | August 9–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 4%[n] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[53] | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 5%[o] |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 44% | 13%[p] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[55][C] | June 24–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| University of Montana[56] | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 37% | 18%[q] |
| Public Policy Polling[57][D] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Kathleen Williams (D) |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[58] | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 35.7% | 19.4% | 35.8% | 9.1%[r] |
with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Kathleen Williams (D) |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[59] | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 35.3% | 19.8% | 36.1% | 8.8%[s] |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Rosendale | 339,169 | 56.39% | +5.51% | |
| Democratic | Kathleen Williams | 262,340 | 43.61% | −2.64% | |
| Total votes | 601,509 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[60] | Matt Rosendale Republican |
Kathleen Williams Democratic |
Margin | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 3,811 | 67.71% | 1,817 | 32.29% | 1,994 | 35.43% | 5,628 |
| Big Horn | 2,103 | 43.96% | 2,681 | 56.04% | -578 | -12.08% | 4,784 |
| Blaine | 1,391 | 44.90% | 1,707 | 55.10% | -316 | -10.20% | 3,098 |
| Broadwater | 3,150 | 77.11% | 935 | 22.89% | 2,215 | 54.22% | 4,085 |
| Carbon | 4,465 | 63.29% | 2,590 | 36.71% | 1,875 | 26.58% | 7,055 |
| Carter | 758 | 88.76% | 96 | 11.24% | 662 | 77.52% | 854 |
| Cascade | 22,724 | 57.14% | 17,043 | 42.86% | 5,681 | 14.29% | 39,767 |
| Chouteau | 1,820 | 61.49% | 1,140 | 38.51% | 680 | 22.97% | 2,960 |
| Custer | 4,072 | 69.67% | 1,773 | 30.33% | 2,299 | 39.33% | 5,845 |
| Daniels | 786 | 77.44% | 229 | 22.56% | 557 | 54.88% | 1,015 |
| Dawson | 3,639 | 75.81% | 1,161 | 24.19% | 2,478 | 51.63% | 4,800 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,036 | 41.83% | 2,831 | 58.17% | -795 | -16.33% | 4,867 |
| Fallon | 1,312 | 83.94% | 251 | 16.06% | 1,061 | 67.88% | 1,563 |
| Fergus | 4,715 | 72.90% | 1,753 | 27.10% | 2,962 | 45.79% | 6,468 |
| Flathead | 38,426 | 64.37% | 21,271 | 35.63% | 17,155 | 28.74% | 59,697 |
| Gallatin | 32,217 | 45.56% | 38,501 | 54.44% | -6,284 | -8.89% | 70,718 |
| Garfield | 738 | 92.13% | 63 | 7.87% | 675 | 84.27% | 801 |
| Glacier | 1,783 | 31.46% | 3,885 | 68.54% | -2,102 | -37.09% | 5,668 |
| Golden Valley | 412 | 89.76% | 47 | 10.24% | 365 | 79.52% | 459 |
| Granite | 1,388 | 66.48% | 700 | 33.52% | 688 | 32.95% | 2,088 |
| Hill | 3,807 | 53.11% | 3,361 | 46.89% | 446 | 6.22% | 7,168 |
| Jefferson | 5,288 | 65.10% | 2,835 | 34.90% | 2,453 | 30.20% | 8,123 |
| Judith Basin | 998 | 74.26% | 346 | 25.74% | 652 | 48.51% | 1,344 |
| Lake | 9,239 | 56.03% | 7,250 | 43.97% | 1,989 | 12.06% | 16,489 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,045 | 49.99% | 21,050 | 50.01% | -5 | -0.01% | 42,095 |
| Liberty | 776 | 71.85% | 304 | 28.15% | 472 | 43.70% | 1,080 |
| Lincoln | 8,587 | 73.40% | 3,112 | 26.60% | 5,475 | 46.80% | 11,699 |
| Madison | 4,113 | 67.92% | 1,943 | 32.08% | 2,170 | 35.83% | 6,056 |
| McCone | 932 | 83.29% | 187 | 16.71% | 745 | 66.58% | 1,119 |
| Meagher | 834 | 75.34% | 273 | 24.66% | 561 | 50.68% | 1,107 |
| Mineral | 1,647 | 70.81% | 679 | 29.19% | 968 | 41.62% | 2,326 |
| Missoula | 26,662 | 37.34% | 44,749 | 62.66% | -18,087 | -25.33% | 71,411 |
| Musselshell | 2,341 | 81.85% | 519 | 18.15% | 1,822 | 63.71% | 2,860 |
| Park | 5,933 | 51.52% | 5,582 | 48.48% | 351 | 3.05% | 11,515 |
| Petroleum | 298 | 85.39% | 51 | 14.61% | 247 | 70.77% | 349 |
| Phillips | 1,860 | 79.18% | 489 | 20.82% | 1,371 | 58.37% | 2,349 |
| Pondera | 1,963 | 65.83% | 1,019 | 34.17% | 944 | 31.66% | 2,982 |
| Powder River | 953 | 83.74% | 185 | 16.26% | 768 | 67.49% | 1,138 |
| Powell | 2,278 | 71.70% | 899 | 28.30% | 1,379 | 43.41% | 3,177 |
| Prairie | 568 | 79.33% | 148 | 20.67% | 420 | 58.66% | 716 |
| Ravalli | 19,114 | 67.15% | 9,350 | 32.85% | 9,764 | 34.30% | 28,464 |
| Richland | 4,694 | 81.66% | 1,054 | 18.34% | 3,640 | 63.33% | 5,748 |
| Roosevelt | 1,927 | 48.33% | 2,060 | 51.67% | -133 | -3.34% | 3,987 |
| Rosebud | 2,426 | 64.68% | 1,325 | 35.32% | 1,101 | 29.35% | 3,751 |
| Sanders | 5,574 | 73.51% | 2,009 | 26.49% | 3,565 | 47.01% | 7,583 |
| Sheridan | 1,328 | 66.10% | 681 | 33.90% | 647 | 32.21% | 2,009 |
| Silver Bow | 7,175 | 38.40% | 11,511 | 61.60% | -4,336 | -23.20% | 18,686 |
| Stillwater | 4,366 | 76.48% | 1,343 | 23.52% | 3,023 | 52.95% | 5,709 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,843 | 75.26% | 606 | 24.74% | 1,237 | 50.51% | 2,449 |
| Teton | 2,557 | 69.41% | 1,127 | 30.59% | 1,430 | 38.82% | 3,684 |
| Toole | 1,546 | 73.72% | 551 | 26.28% | 995 | 47.45% | 2,097 |
| Treasure | 356 | 77.39% | 104 | 22.61% | 252 | 54.78% | 460 |
| Valley | 2,966 | 70.65% | 1,232 | 29.35% | 1,734 | 41.31% | 4,198 |
| Wheatland | 792 | 74.51% | 271 | 25.49% | 521 | 49.01% | 1,063 |
| Wibaux | 492 | 83.39% | 98 | 16.61% | 394 | 66.78% | 590 |
| Yellowstone | 50,145 | 59.90% | 33,563 | 40.10% | 16,582 | 19.81% | 83,708 |
| Totals | 339,169 | 56.39% | 262,340 | 43.61% | 76,829 | 12.77% | 601,509 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Hill (largest city: Havre)
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Undecided with 6%
- Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 9%
- Standard VI response
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
- Undecided with 1%
- Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
- Undecided with 13%
- Undecided with 18.4%
- Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
- Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
- Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
- Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates