2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska. Incumbent Republican Deb Fischer was re-elected to a second term against Lincoln city councilwoman Jane Raybould and Libertarian candidate Jim Schultz.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 57.32% | ||||||||||||||||
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   Fischer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Raybould: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on May 15, 2018.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Deb Fischer, incumbent U.S. senator[2][3]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Endorsements
Deb Fischer
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States[12]
- Governors
- Dave Heineman, Nebraska (former)[13]
- Kay Orr, Nebraska (former)[13]
- Pete Ricketts, Nebraska[13]
- Charles Thone, Nebraska (former)[13]
- U.S. senators
- U.S. representatives
- Don Bacon, Nebraska[13]
- Jeff Fortenberry, Nebraska[13]
- Adrian Smith, Nebraska[13]
- Statewide politicians
- Mike Foley, lieutenant governor[13]
- Charlie Janssen, Auditor of Public Accounts[13]
- Shane Osborn, former State Treasurer[11]
- Doug Peterson, Attorney General[13]
- Don Stenberg, State Treasurer and former Attorney General[11]
- Mayors
- Jean Stothert, Omaha[13]
- Organizations
- Maggie's List[14]
- National Federation of Independent Business[15]
- National Right to Life[16]
- Nebraska Cattlemen[17]
- Nebraska Farm Bureau[18]
- Omaha Professional Fire Fighters Association, IAFF L385[19]
- Susan B. Anthony List[20]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[21]
Results
Fischer
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Deb Fischer (inc.) | 128,157 | 75.79% | |
| Republican | Todd F. Watson | 19,661 | 11.63% | |
| Republican | Jack Heidel | 9,413 | 5.57% | |
| Republican | Jeffrey Lynn Stein | 6,380 | 3.77% | |
| Republican | Dennis Frank Macek | 5,483 | 3.24% | |
| Total votes | 169,094 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jane Raybould, Lincoln City Councilwoman, former Lancaster County Commissioner and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014[23]
Eliminated in primary
- Chris Janicek, businessman[7]
- Larry Marvin, perennial candidate[24]
- Frank Svoboda[6]
Endorsements
Jane Raybould
- U.S. senators
- Ben Nelson, Nebraska (2001–2013)[25]
- Local and statewide politicians
- Labor unions
- National Education Association Fund[27]
- Nebraska State Education Association[28]
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[29]
- League of Conservation Voters[30]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [31]
- Rachel's Action Network[32]
- Sierra Club[33]
Results
Raybould
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Svoboda
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jane Raybould | 59,067 | 63.75% | |
| Democratic | Chris Janicek | 18,752 | 20.24% | |
| Democratic | Frank B. Svoboda | 10,548 | 11.38% | |
| Democratic | Larry Marvin | 4,393 | 4.74% | |
| Total votes | 92,660 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Schultz[7]
Results
Schultz
- 100%
No votes
- No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jim Schultz | 1,202 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,202 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[34] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[35] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[37] | Likely R | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[38] | Safe R | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[39] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Debates
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Deb Fischer (R) |
Jane Raybould (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFM Research[41] | October 23–27, 2018 | 683 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Grassroots Targeting (R)[42] | Late June 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 63% | 28% | – |
| Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer)[43] | January 24–28, 2018 | 500 | – | 51% | 34% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Raybould)[44] | November 10–12, 2017 | 1,190 | ± 2.8% | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer)[43] | January 24–28, 2018 | 500 | – | 47% | 32% | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Deb Fischer (inc.) | 403,151 | 57.69% | −0.08% | |
| Democratic | Jane Raybould | 269,917 | 38.62% | −3.61% | |
| Libertarian | Jim Schultz | 25,349 | 3.63 | — | |
| Write-in | 466 | 0.07% | — | ||
| Majority | 133,234 | 19.06% | +3.52% | ||
| Total votes | 698,883 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
From Secretary of State of Nebraska[46]
| County | Deb Fischer Republican |
Jane Raybould Democratic |
Jim Schultz Libertarian |
Write-in | Total votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
| Adams | 63.44% | 6,487 | 32.61% | 3,334 | 3.93% | 402 | 0.02% | 2 | 10,225 |
| Antelope | 81.56% | 2,061 | 15.67% | 396 | 2.65% | 67 | 0.12% | 3 | 2,527 |
| Arthur | 87.07% | 202 | 10.34% | 24 | 2.59% | 6 | 0.00% | 0 | 232 |
| Banner | 83.76% | 263 | 12.42% | 39 | 3.82% | 12 | 0.00% | 0 | 314 |
| Blaine | 84.79% | 223 | 12.93% | 34 | 2.28% | 6 | 0.00% | 0 | 263 |
| Boone | 76.56% | 1,757 | 19.91% | 457 | 3.22% | 74 | 0.31% | 7 | 2,295 |
| Box Butte | 72.51% | 2,632 | 23.00% | 835 | 4.41% | 160 | 0.08% | 3 | 3,630 |
| Boyd | 83.11% | 797 | 13.35% | 128 | 3.55% | 34 | 0.00% | 0 | 959 |
| Brown | 83.25% | 1,153 | 13.72% | 190 | 3.03% | 42 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,385 |
| Buffalo | 66.86% | 10,939 | 29.12% | 4,765 | 3.97% | 650 | 0.04% | 7 | 16,361 |
| Burt | 67.93% | 1,995 | 28.46% | 836 | 3.54% | 104 | 0.07% | 2 | 2,937 |
| Butler | 71.00% | 2,470 | 25.04% | 871 | 3.94% | 137 | 0.03% | 1 | 3,479 |
| Cass | 63.97% | 6,787 | 31.98% | 3,393 | 3.99% | 423 | 0.06% | 6 | 10,609 |
| Cedar | 81.56% | 2,866 | 15.28% | 537 | 3.16% | 111 | 0.00% | 0 | 3,514 |
| Chase | 85.73% | 1,340 | 11.77% | 184 | 2.43% | 38 | 0.06% | 1 | 1,563 |
| Cherry | 80.18% | 1,913 | 13.16% | 314 | 6.08% | 145 | 0.59% | 14 | 2,386 |
| Cheyenne | 78.76% | 2,566 | 17.77% | 579 | 3.41% | 111 | 0.06% | 2 | 3,258 |
| Clay | 73.87% | 1,979 | 22.10% | 592 | 4.03% | 108 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,679 |
| Colfax | 69.27% | 1,731 | 27.73% | 693 | 3.00% | 75 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,499 |
| Cuming | 79.45% | 2,672 | 17.96% | 604 | 2.56% | 86 | 0.03% | 1 | 3,363 |
| Custer | 81.78% | 3,797 | 14.80% | 687 | 3.40% | 158 | 0.02% | 1 | 4,643 |
| Dakota | 59.02% | 2,677 | 37.28% | 1,691 | 3.62% | 164 | 0.09% | 4 | 4,536 |
| Dawes | 68.79% | 2,334 | 26.94% | 914 | 4.19% | 142 | 0.09% | 3 | 3,393 |
| Dawson | 69.77% | 4,363 | 26.50% | 1,657 | 3.63% | 227 | 0.10% | 6 | 6,253 |
| Deuel | 80.61% | 578 | 15.20% | 109 | 4.18% | 30 | 0.00% | 0 | 717 |
| Dixon | 74.38% | 1,655 | 21.93% | 488 | 3.64% | 81 | 0.04% | 1 | 2,225 |
| Dodge | 64.90% | 7,827 | 31.71% | 3,824 | 3.36% | 405 | 0.03% | 4 | 12,060 |
| Douglas | 46.30% | 94,777 | 50.35% | 103,070 | 3.29% | 6,727 | 0.06% | 133 | 204,707 |
| Dundy | 84.07% | 649 | 12.82% | 99 | 2.98% | 23 | 0.13% | 1 | 772 |
| Fillmore | 67.99% | 1,718 | 27.31% | 690 | 4.67% | 118 | 0.04% | 1 | 2,527 |
| Franklin | 77.39% | 1,044 | 18.90% | 255 | 3.71% | 50 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,349 |
| Frontier | 79.90% | 831 | 16.63% | 173 | 3.46% | 36 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,040 |
| Furnas | 80.36% | 1,719 | 15.61% | 334 | 4.02% | 86 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,139 |
| Gage | 58.74% | 4,896 | 36.28% | 3,024 | 4.91% | 409 | 0.07% | 6 | 8,335 |
| Garden | 81.52% | 816 | 13.89% | 139 | 4.40% | 44 | 0.20% | 2 | 1,001 |
| Garfield | 83.48% | 667 | 14.14% | 113 | 2.25% | 18 | 0.13% | 1 | 799 |
| Gosper | 79.69% | 667 | 17.56% | 147 | 2.75% | 23 | 0.00% | 0 | 837 |
| Grant | 93.69% | 282 | 4.65% | 14 | 1.66% | 5 | 0.00% | 0 | 301 |
| Greeley | 73.57% | 732 | 23.92% | 238 | 2.51% | 25 | 0.00% | 0 | 995 |
| Hall | 62.45% | 10,483 | 33.50% | 5,624 | 3.96% | 665 | 0.09% | 15 | 16,787 |
| Hamilton | 74.88% | 3,076 | 21.81% | 896 | 3.24% | 133 | 0.07% | 3 | 4,108 |
| Harlan | 77.11% | 1,149 | 19.26% | 287 | 3.49% | 52 | 0.13% | 2 | 1,490 |
| Hayes | 89.06% | 350 | 8.14% | 32 | 2.54% | 10 | 0.25% | 1 | 393 |
| Hitchcock | 82.48% | 890 | 14.27% | 154 | 3.24% | 35 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,079 |
| Holt | 77.75% | 3,226 | 17.47% | 725 | 4.60% | 191 | 0.17% | 7 | 4,149 |
| Hooker | 82.96% | 258 | 15.76% | 49 | 0.96% | 3 | 0.32% | 1 | 311 |
| Howard | 70.20% | 1,696 | 25.25% | 610 | 4.51% | 109 | 0.04% | 1 | 2,416 |
| Jefferson | 64.22% | 1,913 | 31.02% | 924 | 4.63% | 138 | 0.13% | 4 | 2,979 |
| Johnson | 62.06% | 1,101 | 32.75% | 581 | 5.07% | 90 | 0.11% | 2 | 1,774 |
| Kearney | 74.22% | 1,952 | 22.51% | 592 | 3.23% | 85 | 0.04% | 1 | 2,630 |
| Keith | 79.19% | 2,542 | 17.66% | 567 | 3.12% | 100 | 0.03% | 1 | 3,210 |
| Keya Paha | 87.05% | 336 | 10.88% | 42 | 2.07% | 8 | 0.00% | 0 | 386 |
| Kimball | 81.30% | 1,122 | 14.64% | 202 | 3.99% | 55 | 0.07% | 1 | 1,380 |
| Knox | 78.37% | 2,812 | 18.65% | 669 | 2.98% | 107 | 0.00% | 0 | 3,588 |
| Lancaster | 42.22% | 49,449 | 53.94% | 63,175 | 3.77% | 4,412 | 0.08% | 95 | 117,131 |
| Lincoln | 71.99% | 8,999 | 23.09% | 2,886 | 4.85% | 606 | 0.07% | 9 | 12,500 |
| Logan | 90.80% | 306 | 6.82% | 23 | 2.37% | 8 | 0.00% | 0 | 337 |
| Loup | 80.46% | 247 | 16.61% | 51 | 2.93% | 9 | 0.00% | 0 | 307 |
| Madison | 75.61% | 7,949 | 21.27% | 2,236 | 3.07% | 323 | 0.05% | 5 | 10,513 |
| McPherson | 87.02% | 228 | 8.40% | 22 | 4.58% | 12 | 0.00% | 0 | 262 |
| Merrick | 76.21% | 2,563 | 19.24% | 647 | 4.52% | 152 | 0.03% | 1 | 3,363 |
| Morrill | 80.33% | 1,699 | 14.56% | 308 | 5.06% | 107 | 0.05% | 1 | 2,115 |
| Nance | 71.54% | 885 | 25.46% | 315 | 2.99% | 37 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,237 |
| Nemaha | 68.48% | 1,788 | 27.84% | 727 | 3.68% | 96 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,611 |
| Nuckolls | 75.40% | 1,321 | 20.83% | 365 | 3.77% | 66 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,752 |
| Otoe | 64.62% | 4,098 | 31.17% | 1,977 | 4.10% | 260 | 0.11% | 7 | 6,342 |
| Pawnee | 67.13% | 774 | 28.79% | 332 | 4.08% | 47 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,153 |
| Perkins | 82.60% | 1,011 | 14.71% | 180 | 2.70% | 33 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,224 |
| Phelps | 79.50% | 3,068 | 17.39% | 671 | 3.01% | 116 | 0.10% | 4 | 3,859 |
| Pierce | 84.59% | 2,339 | 12.33% | 341 | 3.04% | 84 | 0.04% | 1 | 2,765 |
| Platte | 75.85% | 8,372 | 21.23% | 2,343 | 2.87% | 317 | 0.05% | 5 | 11,037 |
| Polk | 75.20% | 1,574 | 21.40% | 448 | 3.39% | 71 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,093 |
| Red Willow | 78.49% | 3,051 | 17.91% | 696 | 3.60% | 140 | 0.00% | 0 | 3,887 |
| Richardson | 69.29% | 2,137 | 27.82% | 858 | 2.82% | 87 | 0.06% | 2 | 3,084 |
| Rock | 85.56% | 569 | 11.88% | 79 | 2.56% | 17 | 0.00% | 0 | 665 |
| Saline | 53.46% | 2,255 | 41.06% | 1,732 | 5.43% | 229 | 0.05% | 2 | 4,218 |
| Sarpy | 58.08% | 39,306 | 37.99% | 25,706 | 3.86% | 2,610 | 0.08% | 51 | 67,673 |
| Saunders | 68.06% | 6,479 | 27.99% | 2,664 | 3.90% | 371 | 0.05% | 5 | 9,519 |
| Scotts Bluff | 68.84% | 7,398 | 26.87% | 2,887 | 4.19% | 450 | 0.10% | 11 | 10,746 |
| Seward | 65.21% | 4,607 | 30.77% | 2,174 | 3.99% | 282 | 0.03% | 2 | 7,065 |
| Sheridan | 81.98% | 1,670 | 13.50% | 275 | 4.47% | 91 | 0.05% | 1 | 2,037 |
| Sherman | 67.67% | 873 | 28.68% | 370 | 3.57% | 46 | 0.08% | 1 | 1,290 |
| Sioux | 83.24% | 447 | 12.85% | 69 | 3.91% | 21 | 0.00% | 0 | 537 |
| Stanton | 80.36% | 1,817 | 16.05% | 363 | 3.58% | 81 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,261 |
| Thayer | 71.89% | 1,606 | 24.13% | 539 | 3.98% | 89 | 0.00% | 0 | 2,234 |
| Thomas | 86.09% | 291 | 10.65% | 36 | 3.25% | 11 | 0.00% | 0 | 338 |
| Thurston | 53.03% | 970 | 44.67% | 817 | 2.13% | 39 | 0.16% | 3 | 1,829 |
| Valley | 77.20% | 1,388 | 19.97% | 359 | 2.78% | 50 | 0.06% | 1 | 1,798 |
| Washington | 70.28% | 6,462 | 26.52% | 2,438 | 3.17% | 291 | 0.03% | 3 | 9,194 |
| Wayne | 74.21% | 2,388 | 22.50% | 724 | 3.26% | 105 | 0.03% | 1 | 3,218 |
| Webster | 73.09% | 997 | 23.31% | 318 | 3.59% | 49 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,364 |
| Wheeler | 82.85% | 343 | 14.49% | 60 | 2.66% | 11 | 0.00% | 0 | 414 |
| York | 71.41% | 3,659 | 25.00% | 1,281 | 3.51% | 180 | 0.08% | 4 | 5,124 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dakota (largest municipality: South Sioux City)
- Saline (largest municipality: Crete)
- Thurston (largest municipality: Pender)
By congressional district
Fischer won all three congressional districts.[47]
| District | Fischer | Raybould | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 55% | 42% | Jeff Fortenberry |
| 2nd | 49% | 48% | Don Bacon |
| 3rd | 72% | 24% | Adrian Smith |