2018 United States Senate election in Vermont
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, U.S. House election, and other state and local elections. Incumbent independent Senator Bernie Sanders won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican nominee Lawrence Zupan.[1] The primaries were held on August 14.[2] This was one of two independent-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 55.57% | ||||||||||||||||
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Sanders: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Zupan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 30–40% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Two-term independent Senator Bernie Sanders was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2012. Sanders, a candidate for president in the 2016 primary election and one of only three independent members of Congress, is a self-described democratic socialist.[3][4]
Sanders had caucused with the Democratic Party since taking office in 2007, and was the chairman of the Budget Committee. He was 77 years old in 2018. Sanders ran for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. After failing to win the nomination, he announced that he would run for re-election for his Senate seat in 2018.[5]
Independents
Candidates
- Brad Peacock, farmer[6]
- Bernie Sanders, incumbent U.S. senator (caucuses with Democrats)[5]
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Democracy for America[7]
- J Street[8]
- MoveOn.org[9]
- Our Revolution[10]
- Rights and Democracy[11]
- Sierra Club[12]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Bernie Sanders, incumbent U.S. senator (declined nomination)[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Folasade Adeluola, activist[14]
Not on ballot
- Jon Svitavsky, homelessness activist[14]
Withdrawn
- Al Giordano, journalist[15]
Results
- Sanders—≥90%
- Sanders—80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bernie Sanders (incumbent) | 63,683 | 94.02% | |
| Democratic | Folasade Adeluola | 3,766 | 5.56% | |
| Write-in | 281 | 0.41% | ||
| Total votes | 67,730 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Lawrence Zupan, real estate broker[17]
Withdrew nomination
- H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remmington News Service
Eliminated in primary
- Rocky De La Fuente, businessman[18]
- Jasdeep Pannu, attorney[19]
Did not file
- John MacGovern, former Massachusetts state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[20]
- Scott Milne, businessman, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[20]
Results
- Paige—50–60%
- Paige—40–50%
- Paige—30–40%
- Zupan—30–40%
- Zupan—40–50%
- Zupan—50–60%
- Zupan—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | H. Brooke Paige | 9,805 | 37.47% | |
| Republican | Lawrence Zupan | 9,383 | 35.86% | |
| Republican | Jasdeep Pannu | 4,527 | 17.30% | |
| Republican | Rocky De La Fuente | 1,057 | 4.04% | |
| Write-in | 1,394 | 5.33% | ||
| Total votes | 26,166 | 100.00% | ||
Post-primary
H. Brooke Paige, who also won the Republican nominations for U.S. House, state Attorney General, state Secretary of State, state Treasurer, and state Auditor, withdrew from all but the secretary of state race on August 24, in order to allow the Vermont Republican Party to name replacement candidates.[21] The Vermont Republican Party picked Lawrence Zupan, who came in second place in the primary, to be the Republican nominee.[22]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| CNN[23] | Solid I | July 12, 2018 |
| Fox News[24] | Likely* I | July 9, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[25] | Safe I | June 6, 2018 |
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid I | October 11, 2017 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid I | September 29, 2017 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe I | September 27, 2017 |
*Highest rating given
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernie Sanders (I) |
Lawrence Zupan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[29] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 66% | 30% | – | 4% |
| Braun Research[30] | October 5–14, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 60% | 19% | 7%[31] | 16% |
| Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party)[32] | September 23–26, 2018 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 75% | 20% | – | – |
Results
Sanders won re-election with 67.4% of the vote against eight other candidates.[33]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Bernie Sanders (incumbent) | 183,649 | 67.44% | −3.56% | |
| Republican | Lawrence Zupan | 74,815 | 27.47% | +2.57% | |
| Independent | Brad J. Peacock | 3,665 | 1.35% | N/A | |
| Independent | Russell Beste | 2,763 | 1.02% | N/A | |
| Independent | Edward S. Gilbert, Jr. | 2,244 | 0.82% | N/A | |
| Independent | Folasade Adeluola | 1,979 | 0.73% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Reid Kane | 1,171 | 0.43% | −0.43% | |
| Independent | Jon Svitavsky | 1,130 | 0.42% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bruce Busa | 914 | 0.34% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 294 | 0.11% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 272,330 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Independent hold | |||||
By county
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