2019 Salvadoran presidential election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Presidential elections were held in El Salvador on 3 February 2019, with Salvadorans electing the president and vice president for a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.

Registered5,268,411
Turnout51.88% (Decrease 3.44pp)
Quick facts Registered, Turnout ...
2019 Salvadoran presidential election

 2014
3 February 2019
2024 
Opinion polls
Registered5,268,411
Turnout51.88% (Decrease 3.44pp)
 
Nominee Nayib Bukele Carlos Calleja Hugo Martínez
Party GANA ARENA FMLN
Running mate Félix Ulloa Carmen Lazo Karina Sosa
Popular vote 1,434,856 857,084 389,289
Percentage 53.10% 31.72% 14.41%

Results by department

President before election

Salvador Sánchez Cerén
FMLN

Elected President

Nayib Bukele
GANA

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The election resulted in victory for Nayib Bukele of the right-wing Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA), who received 53%, defeating Carlos Calleja of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), Hugo Martínez of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and Josué Alvarado of the centrist Vamos party.[1] With his victory, Bukele became the first president since José Napoleón Duarte (1984–1989) to not be a member of either ARENA or the FMLN, which had controlled the presidency in a two-party system from 1989 to 2019.

Prior to the elections, Bukele held a lead against Calleja, Martínez and Alvarado in virtually every poll conducted between July 2018 and January 2019. A second round in March was rendered unnecessary as Bukele won an outright majority; Bukele won a plurality in all of the country's fourteen departments, winning an outright majority in eight of them.[2][3] Bukele was inaugurated on 1 June 2019.[4]

Background

Presidency of Salvador Sánchez Cerén

Salvador Sánchez Cerén at his inauguration in 2014.

Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the then vice president of El Salvador, won the 2014 presidential election by a narrow margin. As a member of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), he defeated Norman Quijano, the then mayor of San Salvador of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance, in that election's second round, winning 50.11 percent of the vote by a margin of 6,364 votes.[5] Sánchez Cerén was inaugurated on 1 June 2014, succeeding fellow FMLN President Mauricio Funes. He was the first former guerrilla fighter from the Salvadoran Civil War to be elected president.[6]

Although in control of the presidency, the FMLN did not have a majority of the Legislative Assembly, with power being divided between it, ARENA, and various other political parties. In the 2015 legislative election, the FMLN won 31 seats and ARENA won 35 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being controlled by other parties.[7] In the succeeding 2018 legislative election, the FMLN fell to 23 seats while ARENA increased to 38 seats, with the remaining 23 seats being controlled by other parties.[8]

Electoral system

Electoral procedure

In October 2017, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) scheduled El Salvador's upcoming 2019 presidential election to occur on 3 February 2019, with a possible second round being scheduled for 10 March 2019. In the election, Salvadorans would elect the country's president and vice president to serve a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.[9]

A presidential candidate needed to win an absolute majority (50% + 1) to be declared the winner of the election. If no candidate received an absolute majority, a second between the two candidates with the most valid votes would have occurred. All presidential and vice presidential candidates must have been at least 30 years old and be Salvadoran citizens by birth.[10][11]:272–274

Political parties

More information Party, Leader ...
Party[12] Leader[12] Participated?
PDC Christian Democratic Party
Partido Demócrata Cristiano
Rodolfo Parker No[α]
CD Democratic Change
Cambio Democrático
Douglas Avilés No
FMLN Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front
Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional
Medardo González Yes
GANA Grand Alliance for National Unity
Gran Alianza por la Unidad Nacional
Andrés Rovira Yes
V Let's Go
Vamos
Josué Alvarado Yes
PCN National Coalition Party
Partido de Concertación Nacional
Manuel Rodríguez No[α]
ARENA Nationalist Republican Alliance
Alianza Republicana Nacionalista
Mauricio Interiano Yes
DS Salvadoran Democracy
Democracia Salvadoreña
No[α]
FPS Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity
Fraternidad Patriota Salvadoreña
No
PSP Salvadoran Progressive Party [es]
Partido Salvadoreño Progresista
No
FPS Social Democrat Party [es]
Partido Social Demócrata
No
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Notes:
  1. Endorsed the Nationalist Republican Alliance's candidates.

Electoral dates

The following tables lists dates which mark events which related to the election.[9]

More information Date, Event ...
Date Event
2 February 2018 Deadline for voters to change address
4 April 2018 Deadline for parties to convoke primary elections
2 October 2018 Beginning of electoral campaigning
5 October 2018 Deadline for the TSE to convoke the presidential election
3 February 2019 Presidential election
10 March 2019 Second round (if necessary)
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Electoral campaigns

Nationalist Republican Alliance


On 27 October 2017, Mauricio Interiano [es], the president of the Nationalist Republican Alliance, announced that the party would hold its primary election on 22 April 2018.[13] Six members of the party expressed interest in securing the party's presidential nomination:[13][14]

In October 2017, Parada withdrew his candidacy, believing that his campaign would be impossible.[15] In December 2017, Awad and Montalvo were eliminated from competition, while Calleja, Simán, and López advanced to the party's primary election[14] where Calleja won 60.8 percent of the vote, officially becoming the party's presidential nominee.[16]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
2018 ARENA presidential primary election
CandidateVotes%
Carlos Calleja34,67060.80
Javier Simán21,77938.19
Gustavo López5741.01
Total57,023100.00
Valid votes57,02396.86
Invalid votes1,2922.19
Blank votes5590.95
Total votes58,874100.00
Source: Nationalist Republican Alliance
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Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front

On 28 February 2018, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front announced that it would hold its primary election on 27 May 2018.[17][18] Óscar Ortiz, the then vice president of El Salvador, was a potential candidate to secure the party's nomination, but he declined to run after Salvador Cerén appointed him as the technical secretary of the presidency.[18] Two party members announced their intention to seek the party's presidential nomination:[18][19]

On 27 May 2018, Hugo Martínez was selected as the party's presidential nominee, winning 72.09 percent of the vote.[20] The party elected Karina Sosa, a former deputy of the Legislative Assembly, as the party's vice presidential nominee.[21]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
2018 FMLN presidential primary election
CandidateVotes%
Hugo Martínez20,25972.09
Gerson Martínez [es]7,84527.91
Total28,104100.00
Valid votes28,10499.47
Invalid/blank votes1500.53
Total votes28,254100.00
Source: El Mundo
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Grand Alliance for National Unity

The Grand Alliance for National Unity held its primary election on 29 July 2018. Two candidates participated in the election, Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador from 2015 to 2018, and Will Salgado [es], the former mayor of San Miguel, but the day before the election, Salgado announced that he withdrew from the primary. Although Salgado withdrew, his name was still on the ballot,[22] but regardless, Bukele won 93.71 percent of the vote and was selected as the party's presidential nominee.[23][22] Bukele's campaign slogan was "Let's Make History" ("Hagamos Historia").[24]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
2018 GANA presidential primary election
CandidateVotes%
Nayib Bukele1,86393.71
Will Salgado [es] (withdrawn)1256.29
Total1,988100.00
Valid votes1,98896.41
Invalid votes653.15
Blank votes90.44
Total votes2,062100.00
Source: El Mundo
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Presidential candidates

More information Party, Candidate ...
Party Candidate Running mate
Grand Alliance for National Unity
Grand Alliance for National Unity
Grand Alliance
for National Unity
[a]
Nayib Bukele
Nayib Bukele
Nayib Bukele
Mayor of San Salvador
(2015–2018)
Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán
(2012–2015)
Félix Ulloa
Félix Ulloa
Félix Ulloa
Nationalist Republican Alliance
Nationalist Republican Alliance
Nationalist
Republican
Alliance
[b]
Carlos Calleja
Carlos Calleja
Carlos Calleja
Carmen Lazo
Carmen Lazo
Carmen Lazo
Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front
Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front
Farabundo Martí
National Liberation
Front
Hugo Martínez
Hugo Martínez
Hugo Martínez
Minister of Foreign Affairs
(2009–2013, 2014–2018)
Secretary General of SICA
(2013–2014)
Deputy of the Legislative Assembly
(2003–2009)
Karina Sosa
Karina Sosa
Karina Sosa
Deputy of the Legislative Assembly
(2012–2021)
Vamos
Vamos
Vamos
Josué Alvarado
Josué Alvarado
Josué Alvarado
Roberto Rivera
Roberto Rivera
Roberto Rivera
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Debates

Two presidential debates were held; the first was hosted by the University of El Salvador (UES) on 16 December 2018 and the second was hosted by the Salvadoran Association of Broadcasters [es] (ASDER). Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado attended both debates, while Bukele was absent from both.[25][26]

More information Date, Organizers ...
2019 Salvadoran presidential election debates
Date Organizers   P   Present     A   Absent  
ARENA FMLN VAMOS GANA Ref.
16 Dec 2018 UES P
Calleja
P
Martínez
P
Alvarado
A
Bukele
[25]
13 Jan 2019 ASDER P
Calleja
P
Martínez
P
Alvarado
A
Bukele
[26]
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Opinion polls

Opinion polling from July 2018 through January 2019 consistently gave Bukele a lead over Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado.

Local regression of polls conducted
More information Presidential election polls, Polling firm ...
Presidential election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Calleja
(ARENA)
Martínez
(FMLN)
Alvarado
(VAMOS)
Bukele
(GANA)
Undecided None Lead Ref.
CONARES 17 Jan 2019 2,012 19.0 13.0 1.0 61.0 3.0 3.0 42.0 [27]
CDOP 17 Jan 2019 1,300 27.3 10.5 1.0 36.1 9.6 15.1 8.8 [28]
CIOPS/UTEC 16 Jan 2019 2,113 24.0 8.1 0.6 40.4 26.1 16.4 [29]
UFG 15 Jan 2019 1,536 21.8 8.1 1.0 42.6 18.4 8.1 20.8 [30]
CIG-Gallup 11 Jan 2019 1,000 23.0 8.0 1.0 42.0 26.0 19.0 [31]
Mitofsky 8 Jan 2019 1,000 31.0 11.0 1.0 57.0 26.0 [32]
IUDOP/UCA 13 Dec 2018 1,806 19.7 10.6 0.8 44.1 22.3 2.5 24.4 [33]
TResearch 11 Dec 2018 1,000 31.0 10.3 1.3 57.4 26.4 [34]
UES 10 Dec 2018 1,557 17.34 8.73 0.26 48.43 25.24 31.09 [35]
Fundaungo 7 Dec 2018 1,985 21.4 11.3 0.6 42.0 15.0 9.7 20.6 [36]
TResearch 5 Dec 2018 1,000 31.3 10.4 1.3 57.0 25.7 [37]
CIOPS/UTEC 5 Dec 2018 2,133 24.5 10.4 0.9 40.5 12.8 10.9 16.0 [38]
La Prensa Gráfica 29 Nov 2018 2,000 16.8 6.9 0.5 28.9 5.7 41.2 12.1 [39]
TResearch 25 Nov 2018 1,000 31.9 10.8 1.4 55.9 24.0 [40]
Fundaungo 20 Nov 2018 1,068 14.2 10.2 1.9 35.1 10.0 28.6 20.9 [41]
UFG 19 Nov 2018 1,538 21.4 6.4 1.5 40.7 21.2 8.7 19.3 [42]
CID-Gallup 1 Nov 2018 1,000 28.0 16.0 1.0 44.0 1.0 16.0 [43]
TResearch 29 Oct 2018 1,000 32.2 9.0 0.9 56.6 1.3 24.4 [44]
TResearch 24 Oct 2018 1,000 32.1 9.3 1.1 56.5 1.0 24.4 [45]
ICP 23 Oct 2018 1,400 31.7 13.6 0.6 33.3 20.8 1.6 [46]
TResearch 15 Oct 2018 1,000 31.8 9.4 1.0 56.1 1.7 24.3 [47]
CIOPS/UTEC 9 Oct 2018 2,133 21.0 10.5 1.0 48.0 19.5 27.0 [48]
CONARES 8 Oct 2018 1,400 21.0 11.0 1.0 45.0 11.0 11.0 24.0 [49]
TResearch 1 Oct 2018 1,000 32.4 10.9 1.1 54.6 1.0 22.2 [50]
CID-Gallup 26 Sept 2018 1,205 20.0 7.0 1.0 45.0 27.0 25.0 [51]
La Prensa Gráfica 31 Aug 2018 1,520 17.6 8.6 0.3 21.9 37.5 14.1 4.3 [52]
UFG 28 Aug 2018 1,295 23.0 10.0 2.3 37.7 26.0 1.0 14.7 [53]
TResearch 19 Aug 2018 3,600 30.2 9.7 1.1 55.9 3.1 25.7 [54]
TResearch 31 Jul 2018 3,600 31.7 9.7 2.8 55.8 24.1 [55]
CID-Gallup 30 Jul 2018 806 24.0 5.0 0.0 38.0 33.0 14.0 [56]
2014 election 9 Mar 2014 N/A 49.89 50.11 0.22 [5]
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Results

More information Candidate, Running mate ...
CandidateRunning matePartyVotes%
Nayib BukeleFélix UlloaGrand Alliance for National Unity1,434,85653.10
Carlos CallejaCarmen Aída LazoNationalist Republican Alliance857,08431.72
Hugo MartínezKarina SosaFarabundo Martí National Liberation Front389,28914.41
Josué AlvaradoRoberto RiveraVamos20,7630.77
Total2,701,992100.00
Valid votes2,701,99298.86
Invalid/blank votes31,1861.14
Total votes2,733,178100.00
Registered voters/turnout5,268,41151.88
Source: TSE
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Results by department

The following table displays the number of votes each candidate received from each of the country's 14 departments as well as from the exterior vote. The candidate with the most votes in a department is highlighted in their party's color and the runner-up in a department is in gray.

More information Department, Calleja ...
Department Calleja Martínez Alvarado Bukele
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Ahuachapán 50,05136.10 28,25720.38 6600.47 59,68943.05
Cabañas 26,32539.61 8,58612.92 1990.30 31,34647.17
Chalatenango 30,36432.40 20,93422.34 3160.34 42,09244.92
Cuscatlán 39,09833.89 17,88215.50 6090.52 57,79550.09
La Libertad 117,09237.25 33,8239.85 3,7561.10 177,83251.80
La Paz 40,76229.41 17,35712.53 6560.47 79,80357.59
La Unión 29,13831.82 12,25613.39 2950.32 49,87154.47
Morazán 26,00732.13 23,10228.54 1930.23 31,64939.10
San Miguel 43,96024.36 37,52920.80 9060.50 98,06454.34
San Salvador 246,79229.99 86,65610.53 9,5821.16 479,99158.32
Santa Ana 77,55034.09 24,69510.86 1,8210.80 123,41354.25
San Vicente 22,78631.33 15,92121.89 2660.36 33,76546.42
Sonsonate 60,79631.62 28,59914.87 1,0950.57 101,79452.94
Usulután 35,42226.47 33,35024.93 4060.30 64,61948.30
Exterior vote 1654.52 3429.39 30.09 3,13386.00
Total 857,08431.72 389,28914.41 20,7630.77 1,434,85653.10
Source: TSE
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See also

Notes

  1. Bukele's electoral campaign with the Grand Alliance for National Unity was supported by Nuevas Ideas.
  2. Calleja's campaign with the Nationalist Republican Alliance was supported by the National Coalition Party (PCN), Christian Democratic Party (PDC), and Salvadoran Democracy (DS).

References

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