2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper was elected to a second term, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Dan Forest. Cooper became the first North Carolina governor to win re-election since Mike Easley in 2004. He also outperformed other Democrats on the ballot and was the only Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in a state carried by Donald Trump in 2020. With a margin of 4.51%, this election was the second closest of the 2020 gubernatorial election cycle after Puerto Rico and the closest in a U.S. state.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election

 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 
Turnout75.35% Increase 6.37pp
 
Nominee Roy Cooper Dan Forest
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,834,790 2,586,605
Percentage 51.52% 47.01%

Cooper:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Forest:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper
Ernest
Reeves
Undecided
High Point University[3] February 21–28, 2020 269 (LV) 74% 13% 13%
468 (RV) 68% 14% 18%
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[4] February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 4.9% 73% 9% 18%
High Point University[5] January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) 80% 8% 12%
400 (RV) 69% 10% 21%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Cooper—>90%
  Cooper—80–90%
  Cooper—70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results [6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Roy Cooper (incumbent) 1,128,829 87.19%
Democratic Ernest T. Reeves 165,804 12.81%
Total votes 1,294,633 100.00%
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Dan Forest

Executive branch officials

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dan
Forest
Holly
Grange
Pat
McCrory
Undecided
High Point University[14] February 21–28, 2020 246 (LV) 74% 13% 13%
443 (RV) 64% 12% 24%
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[4] February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 5.0% 60% 8% 32%
High Point University[15] January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) 67% 8% 25%
400 (RV) 54% 10% 36%
December 19, 2019 McCrory announces he will not run
Harper Polling (R)[16] December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 31% 3% 42% 25%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Forest—>90%
  Forest—80–90%
  Forest—70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results [6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Forest 698,077 88.95%
Republican Holly Grange 86,714 11.05%
Total votes 784,791 100.00%
Close

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19] Likely D October 23, 2020
Inside Elections[20] Lean D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely D November 2, 2020
Politico[22] Lean D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[23] Likely D October 28, 2020
RCP[24] Lean D November 2, 2020
270towin[25] Likely D November 2, 2020
Close

Endorsements

Roy Cooper (D)

U.S. presidents

State and local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Dan Forest (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Debates

A debate between Cooper and Forest occurred 7:00 pm EDT, October 14, 2020.[32]

More information Dates, Location ...
Dates Location Cooper Forest Link
October 14, 2020 Raleigh, North Carolina Participant Participant Full debate[33] - C-SPAN
Close

Polling

%support01020304050606/3/20195/26/20209/3/202010/19/2020Roy CooperDan ForestOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 North Carolina ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Dan
Forest (R)
Other /
Undecided
Swayable[34] October 27 – November 1, 2020 655 (LV) ± 5.5% 55% 43% 2%[b]
Frederick Polls (D)[35][A] October 30–31, 2020 676 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 45% 3%[c]
Emerson College[36] October 29–31, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.3% 55%[d] 45% 1%[e]
CNN/SSRS[37] October 23–30, 2020 901 (LV) ± 4% 52% 42% 5%[f]
East Carolina University[38] October 27–28, 2020 1,103 (LV) ± 3.4% 54%[g] 43% 2%[h]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[39] October 27–28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 45% 8%[i]
Marist College/NBC[40] October 25–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.7% 59% 40% 1%[j]
Gravis Marketing[41] October 26–27, 2020 614 (LV) ± 4% 51% 43% 6%[k]
Meeting Street Insights (R)[42] October 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 51% 43%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[43] October 23–27, 2020 1,034 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 42% 7%[l]
RMG Research[44] October 24–26, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% 6%[m]
Swayable[45] October 23–26, 2020 386 (LV) ± 6.9% 53% 44% 3%[n]
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[46] October 23–26, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 42% 6%[o]
YouGov/UMass Amherst[47] October 20–26, 2020 911 (LV) ± 4.2% 54% 42% 3%[p]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[48] October 22–25, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 42% 5%[q]
Meredith College[49] October 16–19, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 34% 16%[r]
East Carolina University[50] October 15–18, 2020 1,155 (LV) ± 3.4% 53% 44% 2%[s]
Emerson College[51] October 13–14, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 46% 4%[t]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[52] October 11–14, 2020 1,211 (LV) ± 3.3% 53% 46% 1%[u]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[53] October 9–13, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 37% 12%[v]
Monmouth University[54] October 8–11, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 44% 5%[w]
500 (LV)[x] 52% 44% 3%[y]
500 (LV)[z] 51% 46% 3%[aa]
SurveyUSA[55] October 8–11, 2020 669 (LV) ± 4.8% 52% 39% 10%[ab]
RMG Research[56] October 7–11, 2020 800 (LV) 51% 37% 12%[ac]
Public Policy Polling[57] October 4–5, 2020 911 (V) ± 3.3% 52% 40% 8%[ad]
East Carolina University[58] October 2–4, 2020 1,232 (LV) ± 3.2% 53% 40% 7%[ae]
ALG Research (D)[59][B] September 22–28, 2020 822 (V) 53% 43%
YouGov/UMass Lowell[60] September 18–25, 2020 921 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 41% 4%[af]
Meredith College[61] September 18–22, 2020 705 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 39% 11%[ag]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[62] September 17–20, 2020 612 (LV) ± 3.96% 46% 39% 14%[ah]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[63] September 11–16, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 42% 10%[ai]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[64] September 12–15, 2020 1,092 (LV) ± 2.97% 55% 36% 9%[aj]
Suffolk University[65] September 10–14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 38% 12%[ak]
SurveyUSA[66] September 10–13, 2020 596 (LV) ± 5.6% 49% 42% 10%[al]
CNN/SSRS[67] September 9–13, 2020 787 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 44% 2%[am]
893 (RV) ± 4.1% 53% 42% 5%[an]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[68] August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,116 (RV) 48% 38% 14%[ao]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[69] August 30 – September 3, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.18% 54% 35% 11%[ap]
Monmouth University[70] August 29 – September 1, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 51% 40% 8%[aq]
401 (LV)[ar] 51% 42% 7%[as]
401 (LV)[at] 51% 42% 7%[as]
East Carolina University[71] August 29–30, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 40% 10%[au]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[72] August 16–19, 2020 967 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 38% 11%[av]
East Carolina University[73] August 12–13, 2020 1,255 (RV) ± 3.2% 52% 38% 11%[aw]
Emerson College[74] August 8–10, 2020 673 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 44% 7%[ax]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[75] August 6–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 13%[ay]
Public Policy Polling (D)[76][C] July 23–24, 2020 884 (V) ± 3.4% 53% 42% 5%[az]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[77] July 22–24, 2020 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 46% 8%[ba]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[78] July 19–23, 2020 919 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 37% 12%[bb]
Marist College/NBC News[79] July 14–22, 2020 882 (RV) ± 4.0% 58% 38% 4%[bc]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[80] July 13–15, 2020 547 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 46% 5%[bd]
East Carolina University[81] June 22–25, 2020 1,149 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 38% 13%[be]
Public Policy Polling[82] June 22–23, 2020 1,157 (V) ± 2.9% 50% 41% 10%[bf]
NYT Upshot/Siena College[83] June 8–18, 2020 653 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 39% 11%[bg]
Gravis Marketing (R)[84] June 17, 2020 631 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 46% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85] June 14–17, 2020 902 (LV) ± 3.6% 52% 31% 17%[bh]
Public Policy Polling[86] June 2–3, 2020 913 ± 3.2% 50% 39% 11%[bi]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[87] May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 37% 14%[bj]
Neighbourhood Research & Media[88] May 12–21, 2020 391 (LV) 47% 35% 18%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[89] May 9–13, 2020 500 (RV) 55% 37% 8%
East Carolina University[90] May 7–9, 2020 1,111 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 36% 13%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[91] May 2–4, 2020 1,362 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 3%
Meredith College[92] April 27–28, 2020 604 (RV) ± 4.0% 52% 32% 16%
SurveyUSA[93] April 23–26, 2020 580 (LV) ± 5.4% 57% 30% 13%[bk]
Public Policy Polling[94] April 20–21, 2020 1,275 (V) ± 3.2% 53% 40% 7%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[95] April 13–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 36% 9%
Public Policy Polling[96] April 14–15, 2020 1,318 (V) ± 3.4% 50% 36% 13%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[97] April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 33% 17%
East Carolina University[98] February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 41% 10%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[99] October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 36% 18%
Meredith College[100] September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 33% 21%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[101] August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 36% 16%
Public Policy Polling[102] June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% 14%
Harper Polling (R)[103] June 8–10, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 37% 16%
Emerson College[104] May 31 – June 3, 2019 932 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 38% 10%
Spry Strategies (R)[105][D] May 25 – June 1, 2019 730 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Public Policy Polling[106] January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 18%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Holly Grange

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Holly
Grange (R)
Other /
Undecided
East Carolina University[98] February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 33% 18%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[107] October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 27% 27%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[101] August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 30% 22%
Close

with Phil Berger

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Phil
Berger (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[102] June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 39% 16%
Public Policy Polling[106] January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 34% 18%
Close

with Pat McCrory

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Pat
McCrory (R)
Other /
Undecided
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[108] October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 38% 18%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[101] August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 38% 14%
Public Policy Polling[106] January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 41% 14%
Close

with Tim Moore

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Tim
Moore (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[102] June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling[106] January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 32% 22%
Close

with Thom Tillis

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper (D)
Thom
Tillis (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[106] January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 37% 17%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election[109][110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Roy Cooper (incumbent) 2,834,790 51.52% +2.50%
Republican Dan Forest 2,586,605 47.01% −1.79%
Libertarian Steven J. DiFiore 60,449 1.10% −1.09%
Constitution Al Pisano 20,934 0.38% N/A
Total votes 5,502,778 100.00% N/A
Turnout 5,545,847 75.35%
Registered electors 7,359,798
Democratic hold
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite winning a majority of the popular vote, Cooper only won five of 13 congressional districts.[111]

More information District, Forest ...
District Forest Cooper Representative
1st 42.6% 56.4% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 31.4% 67.0% Deborah K. Ross
3rd 58.5% 40.0% Greg Murphy
4th 29.9% 68.8% David Price
5th 63.5% 35.2% Virginia Foxx
6th 34.2% 64.2% Kathy Manning
7th 54.5% 44.0% David Rouzer
8th 49.2% 49.0% Richard Hudson
9th 50.3% 48.4% Dan Bishop
10th 63.7% 35.0% Patrick McHenry
11th 52.2% 46.3% Madison Cawthorn
12th 27.0% 71.0% Alma Adams
13th 62.9% 35.9% Ted Budd
Close

Analysis

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 4,557 total respondents.[112]

More information Demographic subgroup, Cooper ...
2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN)
Demographic subgroup Cooper Forest % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 94 5 20
Moderates 69 29 39
Conservatives 13 86 40
Party
Democrats 97 2 34
Republicans 8 92 37
Independents 54 42 30
Age
18–24 years old 57 41 8
25–29 years old 54 39 6
30–39 years old 59 41 14
40–49 years old 55 43 16
50–64 years old 48 50 31
65 and older 46 53 24
Gender
Men 47 51 44
Women 55 43 56
Race/ethnicity
White 36 63 65
Black 92 7 23
Latino 59 38 5
Asian N/A N/A 2
Other 56 39 5
Gender by race
White men 33 66 29
White women 39 60 36
Black men 92 8 9
Black women 93 6 14
Latino men 45 53 3
Latino women 75 22 3
Other racial/ethnic groups 54 42 7
Education
Never attended college 41 58 18
Some college education 45 53 27
Associate degree 50 46 18
Bachelor's degree 58 41 22
Postgraduate 68 31 14
Education by race
White college graduated 54 45 26
White no college degree 24 74 39
Non-white college graduates 82 17 11
Non-white no college degree 79 19 25
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 59 41 15
White women without college degrees 24 74 21
White men with college degrees 48 52 11
White men without college degrees 24 75 18
Non-white 80 18 35
Income
Under $30K 53 45 15
$30K-$50k 55 43 22
$50k-$100k 50 47 36
$100k-$200k 48 51 22
$200k or more 48 52 5
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 94 4 21
Health care policy 65 32 12
Economy 20 78 35
COVID-19 pandemic 84 15 14
Crime and safety 14 83 12
Region
East 48 51 23
Raleigh-Durham Triangle 65 34 22
Charlotte Area 57 42 18
Piedmont/Central 48 50 20
West 38 60 17
Area type
Urban 71 28 33
Suburban 43 56 40
Rural 42 55 27
Close

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  3. This poll's sponsor, AFSCME, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period

General

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 0%
  3. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%
  4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. DiFiore (L) with 3%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; "None of these" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  7. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. "Refused" and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
  9. DiFiore (L) with 3%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  10. "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  11. Undecided with 6%
  12. DiFiore (L), Pisano (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  13. "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
  14. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%
  15. "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  16. "Another candidate" with 0%; Did not vote with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  17. DiFiore (L) with 1%; Pisano (C) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  18. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  19. "Some other candidate" and would/did not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  20. Undecided with 4%
  21. DiFiore (L) with 1%; Pisano (C), "Someone else" and Undecided with 0%
  22. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
  23. DiFiore (L) and "No one" with 1%; Pisano (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  24. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  25. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  26. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  27. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  28. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  29. DiFiore (L) with 3%; Undecided with 9%
  30. Undecided with 8%
  31. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  32. "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  33. DiFiore (L) with 2%; Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  34. DiFiore (L) and Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  35. Pisano (C) with 2%; DiFiore (L) with 1%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  36. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  37. DiFiore (L) with 5%; Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  38. "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  39. DiFiore (L) with 1%; "None of these" and Pisano (C) with 0%; "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  40. DiFiore (L) with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" and Pisano (C) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  41. "Neither/Another Party" with 1% "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 12%
  42. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  43. DiFiore (L) with 3%; "No one" and Pisano (C) with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  44. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  45. "Other" with 5%; Undecided with 2%
  46. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  47. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 8%
  48. "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  49. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  50. Undecided with 7%
  51. DiFiore (L) and Pisano (C) with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  52. Undecided with 5%
  53. Pisano (C) with 0.9%, DiFiore (L) with 0.7%; Undecided with 5.9%
  54. "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  55. "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  56. Undecided with 3.7%; DiFore with 0.5%; Pisano with 0.4%
  57. Undecided with 8%; "Some other candidate" with 5%
  58. Undecided with 10%
  59. Undecided with 10%; "Another candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  60. Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  61. Undecided with 11%
  62. Undecided with 13%; Pisano (C) with 1%; DiFiore (L) with 0%
  63. Undecided with 13%

References

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