2020 United States Senate election in Maine

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maine. Republican incumbent Susan Collins won re-election to a fifth term, defeating Democratic speaker Sara Gideon.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2020 United States Senate election in Maine

 2014
November 3, 2020
2026 
 
Nominee Susan Collins Sara Gideon
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 417,645 347,223
Percentage 50.98% 42.39%

Collins:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gideon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      50%

U.S. senator before election

Susan Collins
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Susan Collins
Republican

Close

The race became the most expensive in Maine's history, with Collins spending $23 million and Gideon $48 million. It also had national implications, as defeating Collins was a key part of the Democrats' strategy to achieve a Senate majority. While Gideon led Collins in nearly every public poll, Collins unexpectedly defeated Gideon by 8.6 points on election day. Collins outperformed Republican President Donald Trump, who lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by more than nine percent. Maine was the only state to elect a senator of a different party than the winner of its presidential contest in the November 3 election.

Maine used a ranked choice voting system in the 2020 U.S. Senate election, as established by a 2016 referendum. Because Collins won a majority of the first-place votes cast, no additional vote tabulation rounds were needed. This was the first Senate election in Maine since 1996 where Democrats won a county.

Background

Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins ran for a fifth term.[1] Collins had won each election to this seat by a greater victory margin than the one before it. Observers did not expect this election to continue that trend.[2]

Collins was criticized for her decision to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court despite his anti-abortion stances (Collins is pro-choice) and allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse against him,[citation needed] though she gave a highly publicized speech on the Senate floor explaining her reasoning.[3][failed verification] She also faced criticism for her stance on the impeachment of President Donald Trump.[citation needed] Collins voted in favor of allowing witness testimony in the Senate trial, and was the first Republican to do so,[4] and she voted to acquit Trump on both charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.[5] She said she voted to acquit because "impeachment of a president should be reserved for conduct that poses such a serious threat to our governmental institutions as to warrant the extreme step of immediate removal from office."[6] She initially claimed that Trump "learned a pretty big lesson" from the impeachment,[7] but later said that she thought he had not learned from it after all.[8] She was also criticized for running for third, fourth, and fifth Senate terms despite vowing to serve no more than two terms during her 1996 campaign, though she has explained this as a product of having learned the value of seniority in the Senate. The emphasis on seniority became a key theme of her campaign.[9] Collins was widely considered one of the two least conservative Republican U.S. senators (the other being Lisa Murkowski).[1]

During Trump's presidency, Collins's stance on Trump waffled, as he did not share her moderate politics but had a strong base in Maine's sprawling, rural 2nd congressional district. Collins voted against the Affordable Care Act repeal, but for the GOP's 2017 tax bill and to acquit Trump in his first impeachment. She voted to confirm Trump's nominees Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court but against the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett just days before the 2020 election, citing disagreement with process.[10]

The Democratic nominee, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon, supported criminal justice reforms, expansion of the Affordable Care Act, rejoining the Paris Climate Accord, and imposing universal background checks on gun sales to combat gun violence. In 2019, Gideon faced an election ethics complaint for accepting reimbursements for her political donations from her own PAC. Gideon apologized for the violation, reimbursed the federal government a total of $3,250, and closed the PAC.[11] Gideon was also criticized for keeping the Maine House of Representatives adjourned for most of the year (neighboring New Hampshire had reconvened its sizably larger legislature by late spring) and for allegedly turning a blind eye to a legislative colleague accused of molesting underage girls until she was forced to acknowledge the scandal.[12][13]

Lisa Savage, an antiwar activist and schoolteacher from Solon, initially sought the Maine Green Independent Party nomination, but in late February, she announced her intention to instead qualify for the ballot as an independent due to Maine's ballot access measures.[14][15]

Max Linn, a financial planner and conservative activist from Bar Harbor, was a Trump supporter and former candidate of the Republican and Reform parties. In July 2020, he qualified for the ballot as an independent. Former Republican state senator Mary Small challenged the signatures on his petition, but the secretary of state found that he had enough and he was placed on the ballot.[16] Later that month, he announced his intention to drop out of the race to support Collins. But days later, he decided not to drop out unless Collins agreed to a list of policies, which she did not.[17]

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the state, Governor Janet Mills rescheduled them for July 14. Mills's executive order also expanded voters' ability to request absentee ballots, which could then be done up to and on election day.[18] The primaries were conducted with ranked choice voting.[citation needed] Parties qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election were the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the Maine Green Independent Party.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Amy Colter, law office manager (write-in candidate)[20]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 55% 10% 34%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Susan Collins and Paul LePage

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Paul
LePage
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 29% 63% 8%
Close

with Susan Collins and Shawn Moody

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Shawn
Moody
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 36% 45% 18%
Close

with Susan Collins and generic Republican if Collins supported impeaching Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 35% 55% 10
Close

with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur if Collins supported impeaching Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 37% 24% 39%
Close

with Susan Collins and generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26] October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 53% 38% 9%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 87,375 98.79%
Republican Amy Colter (write-in) 1,073 1.21%
Total votes 88,448 100.0%
Close

Democratic primary

On April 20, 2019, attorney and activist Bre Kidman became the first person to announce their candidacy for the Democratic nomination. If elected, they would have been the first ever non-binary U.S. Senator.[28] On June 13, 2019, former Maine gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet declared her candidacy.[29] Eleven days later, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy, receiving widespread media coverage.[30][31] General Jon Treacy had previously announced his candidacy before withdrawing. Former Google executive and political aide Ross LaJeunesse, who would have been the first openly gay man elected to the Senate, announced his candidacy in November 2019. He received the endorsement of the national political group The Victory Fund in January 2020. LaJeunesse eventually withdrew from the race in March 2020, citing the inability to continue his strategy of campaigning in person due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and endorsed Gideon. Two debates were held with all three candidates, while one hosted by WCSH was attended only by Sweet and Kidman.[32]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sara
Gideon
Betsy
Sweet
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D)[52][failed verification] May 13–18, 2020 – (LV)[b] 67% 17% 17%[c]
Colby College/SocialSphere[53][54] February 10–13, 2020 383 (LV) 60% 8% 33%[d]
Close

Results

Results by county
  Gideon
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sara Gideon 116,264 71.47%
Democratic Betsy Sweet 37,327 22.94%
Democratic Bre Kidman 9,090 5.59%
Total votes 162,681 100.0%
Close

Other candidates

Green Independent Party

Two candidates declared their intentions to run for the Maine Green Independent Party's nomination, but one withdrew and the other left the party to become an independent. Lisa Savage left the party because of Maine's ballot access requirements; Savage needed 2,000 registered party members to sign a nomination petition to appear on the ballot as the Green Party candidate but could only gather them from January 1 until the March 15 deadline. The Green Party had roughly 41,000 members statewide, which was significantly fewer than the Democratic and Republican parties but nonetheless required the same number of signatures. No alternative party candidate for statewide office had been able to meet this requirement since Pat LaMarche did so in 2006 for governor. Instead, Savage sought to appear as an independent candidate, which required 4,000 signatures, but they may be from any registered voter, not just party members, and they could have been gathered until the June deadline.[15]

Withdrawn

  • David Gibson, solar design specialist (endorsed Savage)[56]
  • Lisa Savage, school teacher[57] (switched to independent)[15]

Write-in candidates

Independents

Independent Lisa Savage is a peace activist and retired schoolteacher from Solon, Maine.

Eight Independents declared their candidacy for Senate in 2020, including one affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine, which lost ballot access after the 2018 elections.[62] Two qualified for positions on the November ballot.[59]

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Joshua Arnone, accounting clerk affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine[20][59]
  • Steven Golieb, Millinocket town councilor[63][59]
  • Leigh Hawes, truck driver[64][59]
  • Danielle VanHelsing, LGBTQ rights activist[39][59]
  • Linda Wooten, vocational educator and conservative activist[20][59]

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[66] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[68] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[69] Tossup November 2, 2020
RCP[70] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[71] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[72] Tossup November 2, 2020
Economist[73] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Close

Debates

The four candidates participated in two in-person debates on September 11 and September 29, both held without an audience.[74] Collins at one point proposed holding 16 debates, one for every county in Maine, but such a schedule was not agreed upon.[75]

More information N°, Date ...
2020 United States Senate election in Maine debates
 DateModeratorParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant.   NI  Not invited.  
Republican Democratic Independent Independent
United States Senator
Susan Collins
Maine House Speaker
Sara Gideon
Financial planner
Max Linn
Public schoolteacher
Lisa Savage
 
1
 
Friday, September 11, 2020
Pat Callaghan
Rachel Ohm
Michael Shepherd
P P P P
 
2
 
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Kelly O'Mara
Jason Parent
P P P P
 
3
 
Thursday, October 15, 2020
Jennifer Rooks
Steve Mistler
Mal Leary
P P P P
 
4
 
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Pat Callaghan
P P P P
 
5
 
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Steve Bottari
P P
NI
NI
Close

Endorsements

Susan Collins (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Individuals

Organizations

Sara Gideon (D)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

  • Stephen King, author[49]
  • Ross LaJeunesse, former aide to George J. Mitchell, Ted Kennedy, Steve Westly and Arnold Schwarzenegger[98]

Organizations

Unions

Lisa Savage (I)

Organizations

Newspapers

Declined to endorse

Polling

Graphical summary

%support01020304050603/19/20197/23/20209/14/202010/27/2020GideonCollinsSavageOther/undecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States S...

Aggregate polls

More information Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins, Source of poll aggregation ...
Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Sara Gideon Susan Collins Other/undecided[e] Margin
270 to Win[119] October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.4% 42.6% 11.0% Gideon +3.8
Real Clear Politics[120] September 10–23, 2020 September 25, 2020 48.5% 42.0% 9.5% Gideon +6.5
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Sara
Gideon (D)
Lisa
Savage (I)
Other /
Undecided
Change Research[121] October 29 – November 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[f] 46% 7% 5%[g]
46%[h] 54%
Emerson College[122] October 29–31, 2020 611 (LV) ± 3.9% 46%[i] 48% 5% 5%[j]
47%[k] 51% 5%[l]
SurveyUSA[123] October 23–27, 2020 1007 (LV) ± 3.7% 45%[f] 46% 4% 5%[m]
49%[n] 51%
Colby College[124][125] October 21–25, 2020 879 (LV) ± 3.3% 43%[f] 47% 5% 5%[o]
44%[p] 49% 7%[q]
Pan Atlantic Research[126] October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 40%[f] 47% 5% 8%[r]
41%[s] 49% 1% 9%[t]
Critical Insights[127] September 25 – October 4, 2020 466 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[f] 44% 3% 11%[u]
43%[k] 46% 1% 10%[v]
Data for Progress (D)[128] September 23–28, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 41%[f] 46% 3% 11%[w]
42%[x] 50% 8%[y]
Colby College[129] September 17–23, 2020 847 (LV) ± 3.4% 41%[f] 45% 3% 11%[z]
43%[s] 47% 6%[aa]
Moore Information (R)[130][A] September 20–22, 2020 600 (LV) 42% 42% 9%[ab]
Suffolk University[131] September 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41%[f] 46% 4% 7%[ac]
42%[ad] 49% 1% 8%[ae]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[132] September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 40%[f] 44% 2% 2%[af]
44%[ag] 49% 0% 7%[ah]
Quinnipiac University[133] September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% 4%[ai]
Citizen Data[134][failed verification] September 4–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 49% 1% 9%[aj]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[135][B] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[f] 44% 6% 8%[ak]
47%[x] 48% 5%[al]
Public Policy Polling[136] August 13–14, 2020 571 (V) ± 4.1% 44% 49% 7%[am]
Critical Insights[137] July 28 – August 9, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 43% 5% 15%[an]
499 (RV) 35%[f] 43% 5% 18%[ao]
37%[p] 44% 1% 18%[ap]
Quinnipiac University[138] July 30 – August 3, 2020 807 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 10%[aq]
RMG Research[139] July 27 – August 2, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 48% 11%[ar]
Data for Progress[140] July 24 – August 2, 2020 866 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 48% 7%[as]
Colby College/SocialSphere[129] July 18–24, 2020 888 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 44% 18%[at]
Public Policy Polling[141] July 22–23, 2020 561 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 47% 11%[ar]
Public Policy Polling[142] July 2–3, 2020 1,022 (V) ± 3.1% 42% 46% 11%[ar]
Moore Information (R)[143][A] June 20–24, 2020[au] 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 37% 3% 1%[av]
Victory Geek (D)[52][failed verification] May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 51% 7%[am]
Tarrance Group (R)[144][C] April 2020 [aw] 48% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling[145] March 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 10%[ax]
Colby College/SocialSphere[53] February 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 43% 14%[ay]
Fabrizio Ward[146][B] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 35% 13%[az]
Gravis Marketing[147] June 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 44%[ba] 30% 26%[bb]
52%[x] 36% 12%[bc]
Pan Atlantic Research[148] March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 29% 20%[bd]
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Betsy Sweet

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Betsy Sweet (D) Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D)[52][failed verification] May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 43% 10%
Close

with Susan Rice

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Rice (D)
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[149] October 27–29, 2018 883 (LV)[be] ± 3.5% 20% 44% 35%
Close

with generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan Collins (R) Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D)[52][failed verification] May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 39% 12%[bc]
Colby College/SocialSphere[53] Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 40% 26%
Public Policy Polling[150] October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 41% 15%[bf]
Public Policy Polling[151] October 1–2, 2018 [aw] ± 3.3% 34% 42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[152][D] August 28–29, 2017 501 (V) 21% 51% 27%[bg]
Close

with generic Democrat if Collins supports impeaching Donald Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[150] October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 38% 32% 30%[bh]
Close

with generic Democrat if Collins opposes impeaching Donald Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[150] October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 13%[bi]
Close

with Generic Opponent

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward[146][B] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 55% 7%[bj]
Pan Atlantic Research[148] March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 27% 48%[bk]
Close

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot[132] September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 41% 53% 6%[bl]
Quinnipiac University[133] September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 40% 53% 7%[am]
Fabrizio Ward[146][B] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%[bm]
Close

Results

Collins defeated Gideon in the general election with 51.0% of the first-place votes.[153] Maine used a ranked choice voting system in the election, as established by a 2016 referendum.[154] Because Collins won a majority of the first-place votes cast, no additional rounds of vote tabulation rounds were needed.[155] Gideon conceded the race to Collins on November 4.[156]

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Maine, 2020[157]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 417,645 50.98% −17.48%
Democratic Sara Gideon 347,223 42.39% +10.89%
Independent Lisa Savage 40,579 4.95% N/A
Independent Max Linn 13,508 1.65% N/A
Write-in 228 0.03% -0.01%
Total votes 819,183 100.0% N/A
Republican hold
Close

By county

More information County, Susan Collins Republican ...
County Susan Collins
Republican
Sara Gideon
Democratic
Lisa Savage
Independent
Max Linn
Independent
Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Androscoggin 32,979 56.19 22,181 37.79 2,438 4.15 1,090 1.86 2 0.00 10,798 18.40 58,690
Aroostook 24,033 67.51 9,750 27.39 1,072 3.01 743 2.09 3 0.01 14,283 40.12 35,601
Cumberland 74,592 38.45 105,308 54.29 11,907 6.14 2,138 1.10 39 0.02 -30,716 -15.83 193,984
Franklin 9,817 56.47 6,276 36.10 969 5.57 322 1.85 0 0.00 3,541 20.37 17,384
Hancock 17,371 49.19 15,379 43.55 1,821 5.16 736 2.08 8 0.02 1,992 5.64 35,315
Kennebec 39,481 54.92 27,664 38.49 3,407 4.74 1,324 1.84 10 0.01 11,817 16.44 71,886
Knox 11,705 45.44 12,190 47.32 1,461 5.67 399 1.55 3 0.01 -485 -1.88 25,758
Lincoln 12,075 51.08 10,102 42.73 1,111 4.70 349 1.48 3 0.01 1,973 8.35 23,640
Oxford 19,567 58.54 11,705 35.02 1,511 4.52 635 1.90 4 0.01 7,862 23.52 33,422
Penobscot 51,088 59.96 28,958 33.98 3,461 4.06 1,600 1.88 100 0.12 22,130 25.97 85,207
Piscataquis 6,603 66.95 2,655 26.92 394 3.99 210 2.13 0 0.00 3,948 40.03 9,862
Sagadahoc 11,558 48.08 10,787 44.87 1,354 5.63 337 1.40 3 0.01 771 3.21 24,039
Somerset 17,861 64.92 7,355 26.73 1,770 6.43 525 1.91 3 0.01 10,506 38.18 27,514
Waldo 12,538 51.57 9,768 40.18 1,604 6.60 394 1.62 9 0.04 2,770 11.39 24,313
Washington 11,196 64.56 5,251 30.28 547 3.15 338 1.95 10 0.06 5,945 34.28 17,342
York 64,092 49.46 57,826 44.63 5,389 4.16 2,255 1.74 16 0.01 6,266 4.84 129,578
Overseas 1,089 19.28 4,068 72.02 363 6.43 113 2.00 15 0.27 -2,979 -52.74 5,648
Totals 417,645 50.98 347,223 42.39 40,579 4.95 13,508 1.65 228 0.03 70,422 8.60 819,183
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Collins won Maine's second congressional district,[158][failed verification] which elected Democrat Jared Golden to the House of Representatives.[159]

More information District, Collins ...
District Collins Gideon Others Representative
1st 44% 49% 7% Chellie Pingree
2nd 59% 35% 6% Jared Golden
Close

Analysis

According to AP News, "Collins defied prognostications of doom from Washington's consultant class to score perhaps the most unexpected victory of the 2020 cycle, hanging a lopsided loss on a Democratic challenger despite a pile of outside Democratic money and open hostility from the leader of her party, President Donald Trump".[160]

The hotly contested race became the most expensive in Maine history, with Collins spending $23 million and Gideon nearly $48 million.[161] The race also had national implications, as defeating Collins was a key part of the Democrats' strategy to achieve a Senate majority. Collins defeated Gideon despite trailing in nearly every public poll. Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Collins did much better on Election Day than the polls predicted.[162] She positioned herself as an underdog candidate running against an opponent who was not a Maine native and who received extensive support from out-of-staters.[160][163]

Following her first election to the Senate in 1996, Collins had won her previous re-election campaigns easily.[160] She had received over 68% of the vote in 2014.[164] In this election, Collins outperformed Republican U.S. President Donald Trump, who lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden[160] by more than nine percent.[165] Maine was the only state to elect a senator of a different party than the winner of its presidential contest in the November 3 election.[166][167]

Gideon underperformed winning Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by 10.6%. Her performance was the second-worst underperformance by a Democratic Senate candidate in the country.[166] In the coastal town of Wells,[168] Biden won by 14% and Collins by 6%.[169]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the NRSC, which exclusively supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate elections.
  2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. Poll sponsored by the 1820 PAC.
  4. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line

Voter samples

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Likely primary voter subsample of 306 likely general election Democratic voters
  3. Undecided with 17%
  4. Undecided with 31%; LaJeunesse with 0%; "another candidate" with 2%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Standard VI response
  7. Linn (I) with 2%; "Don't recall", would not vote, and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  8. With 3 rounds of Ranked Choice Voting
  9. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. Reassigning the second preferences of Linn, Savage and "Someone else" voters
  12. "No second choice" and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. With Ranked Choice Voting
  15. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  16. Reassigning the second preferences of Savage voters
  17. Linn (I) with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  18. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  19. Reassigning the second preferences of Linn and Savage voters
  20. Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  21. Linn (I), "Someone else" and "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  22. "No second preference" and "Refused" with 1%; Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  23. Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  24. If only Collins and Gideon were candidates
  25. Undecided with 8%
  26. Linn (I) with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  27. Undecided with 6%
  28. Undecided with 9%
  29. Linn (I) with 2%; "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  30. Assigning the second preferences of non-Collins/Gideon voters
  31. Linn (I) and "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  32. Linn (I) with 2%
  33. Topline after Ranked Choice Voting is used
  34. Would not vote with 1%; Linn (I) and "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  35. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. "Other" with 2%; Linn (I) with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  37. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  38. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. Undecided with 7%
  40. "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  41. Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  42. Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 15%
  43. "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  44. Undecided with 11%
  45. "No one" with 7%
  46. "Minor party candidates" with 6%; Undecided with 12%
  47. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  48. Linn (I) with 1%
  49. Not yet released
  50. Undecided with 10%
  51. Undecided with 14%
  52. Undecided with 12%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 1%
  53. First choice on an RCV ballot if the candidates were Collins, Gideon and VanHelsing (I)
  54. Undecided with 19%; VanHelsing with 7%
  55. Undecided with 12%
  56. "Other" with 12%; Undecided with 8%
  57. Using the likely voter screen for the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Maine
  58. Undecided with 15%
  59. Undecided with 27%
  60. Undecided with 30%
  61. Undecided with 13%
  62. "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  63. "Consider voting for Collins" with 40%; Undecided with 8%
  64. "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  65. "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 15%

References

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