2020 United States Senate election in Montana
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana governor Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.[2]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 81.33%  [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bullock: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.[3] However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.[4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.[5] Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.[6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.
Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin.[7] He also flipped two counties won by Donald Trump in the presidential contest — Lewis and Clark and Roosevelt.
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[8] This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator[9]
Eliminated in primary
- John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979)[10]
- Daniel Larson, hardware store manager[9]
Endorsements
Steve Daines
- Individuals
- Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump[11]
Results
Daines
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 192,942 | 88.02% | |
| Republican | John Driscoll | 13,944 | 6.36% | |
| Republican | Daniel Larson | 12,319 | 5.62% | |
| Total votes | 219,205 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[2]
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for president of the United States in 2020[4][13][14]
Eliminated in primary
- John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[15]
Withdrawn
- Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[16]
- Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[17]
- Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[18] (remained on ballot)
- Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[19] (endorsed Bullock)[20]
- Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[21]
Declined
- Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization[22][23]
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana[24]
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)[25]
Endorsements
Steve Bullock
- Federal officials
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California (2017-2021), 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee[26]
Results
Bullock
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 144,949 | 95.45% | |
| Democratic | John Mues | 3,740 | 2.46% | |
| Democratic | Mike Knoles (withdrawn) | 3,165 | 2.09% | |
| Total votes | 151,854 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[27][28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[29]
Withdrawn
- Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014[30]
- Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party[31][27][32]
Green Party
Disqualified
Eliminated in primary
Results
Fredrickson
Daneke
Tie
No vote
General election
Debate
Predictions
| Source | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[38] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[39] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[41] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[42] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[43] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[44] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[46] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Steve Daines (R)
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018), 116th governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[47]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017-2021)[48]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013-present)[49]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003-present)[50]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985-present) and Senate Majority Leader (2015-2021)[51]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011-present)[52]
- Organizations
Steve Bullock (D)
- Federal officials
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota (2007–present), candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination[59]
- Jon Tester, U.S. senator from Montana (2007–2025), president of the Montana Senate (2005–2007)[60]
- Newspapers
- Organizations
- Center for Biological Diversity[64]
- End Citizens United[65]
- Human Rights Campaign[66]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[67]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[68]
- League of Conservation Voters[69]
- The Lincoln Project[70]
- Montana State Council of Professional Fire Fighters[71]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[72]
- National Organization for Women[73]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[74]
- Planned Parenthood[75]
- Unions
Polling
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Daines | Steve Bullock | Other/Undecided[a] | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics[81] | October 5–24, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 48.8% | 46.4% | 4.8% | Daines + 2.4 |
| 270 to Win[82] | October 19, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 48.0% | 47.2% | 4.8% | Daines + 0.8 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[83] | October 29 – November 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 3%[c] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[84][A] | October 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | 6%[d] |
| The Progress Campaign (D)[85] | October 25, 2020 | – (V)[e] | – | 48% | 48% | – |
| Montana State University Billings[86] | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[f] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[87] | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 6%[g] |
| Strategies 360[88] | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[f] |
| RMG Research[89] | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49%[h] | 47% | 5%[i] |
| 47%[j] | 48% | 5%[i] | ||||
| 50%[k] | 45% | 5%[i] | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[90] | October 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[l] |
| Emerson College[91] | October 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 43% | 6%[m] |
| Data For Progress (D)[92] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | 4%[n] |
| Montana State University Bozeman[93] | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4%[o] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[94] | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[p] |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[95][B] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[q] |
| Emerson College[96] | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6%[m] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[97][C] | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | 9%[r] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[98] | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 3%[s] |
| Public Policy Polling[99] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10%[t] |
| University of Montana[100] | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 10%[u] |
| Montana State University Bozeman[101] | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 46% | 15%[v] |
| The Progress Campaign (D)[102] | April 14–21, 2020 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[103][D] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Hypothetical polling
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Democratic candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[104] | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 53%[w] |
Steve Daines vs. Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Democratic candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[105] | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 64% | 36%[x] |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 333,174 | 55.01% | −2.78% | |
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 272,463 | 44.99% | +4.92% | |
| Total votes | 605,637 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Did not vote, "Don't recall", and Undecided with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
- Undecided with 6%
- Not yet released
- Undecided with 5%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
- Standard VI response
- "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- Geise (G) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- Fredrickson (G) with 4%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 9.7%
- Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
- Steve Bullock with 38%; Wilmot Collins with 4%; Cora Neumann with 7%; Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
- Jack Ballard with 18%; Wilmot Collins and John Mues with 9%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates.