2020 United States Senate election in Alabama
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.[2]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 63.1%  [1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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   Tuberville: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jones: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent Roy Moore.[3]
As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,[4][5][6][7] whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydings in 1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose a general election in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. However, he outperformed Biden in the state by about five points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.
Democratic primary
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.[8][9]
Candidates
Nominee
- Doug Jones, incumbent U.S. senator[10]
Declined
- John Rogers, state representative[11]
- Randall Woodfin, mayor of Birmingham[12] (endorsed Jones)
Endorsements
Doug Jones
U.S. senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (CA) (2017–2021), candidate for President of the United States in 2020, Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2020[13]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[14]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. senator (WV)[15]
U.S. representatives
- Terri Sewell (AL-7)[16]
Local officials
- Stacey Abrams, Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018, former Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives[17]
- Randall Woodfin, Mayor of Birmingham[12]
Individuals
- Michael O'Neill, actor[16]
Organizations
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tommy Tuberville, former Auburn Tigers football head coach[22]
Eliminated in runoff
- Jeff Sessions, former United States attorney general (2017–2018), former holder of this seat (1997–2017), and former attorney general of Alabama (1995–1997)[23]
Eliminated in primary
- Stanley Adair, businessman[24]
- Bradley Byrne, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district[25]
- Arnold Mooney, state representative
- Roy Moore, former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, former candidate for Governor of Alabama in 2006 and 2010 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2017[26]
- Ruth Page Nelson, community activist[27]
Withdrew
- Marty Preston Hatley[28][29]
- John Merrill, Secretary of State of Alabama[30]
- John Paul Serbin[31][29]
Declined
- Robert Aderholt, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district (ran for re-election)[32]
- Will Ainsworth, Alabama lieutenant governor[33]
- Mo Brooks, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 5th congressional district and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2017 (ran for re-election)[34]
- Will Dismukes, state representative[35]
- Matt Gaetz, incumbent U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district (ran for re-election)[36]
- Del Marsh, president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate[37]
- Arthur Orr, state senator[12] (endorsed Byrne)
- Martha Roby, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district[38]
- Heather Whitestone, former Miss America[39][40]
Endorsements
Bradley Byrne (eliminated)
Federal officials
- Liz Cheney, U.S. representative (WY-AL) [41]
State officials
- Tom Butler, state senator and former state representative (1982–1994)[42]
- Arthur Orr, state senator[43]
Arnold Mooney (eliminated)
Federal officials
- Mo Brooks, U.S. representative (AL-05) and Republican candidate in the 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama[44]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator (UT)[45]
- Mark Levin, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Attorney General Edwin Meese and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Education[44]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (KY)[46]
Organizations
Individuals
- Erick Erickson, blogger[44]
Jeff Sessions (eliminated)
Federal officials
- John Ashcroft, former U.S. Attorney General (2001-2005)[47]
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator (WY)[48][49]
- Roy Blunt, U.S. senator (MO) and former U.S. representative (MO-07) (1997–2011)[48][49]
- John Boozman, U.S. senator (AR) and former U.S. Representative (AR-03) (2001–2011)[48][49]
- Mike Crapo, U.S. senator (ID) and former U.S. representative (ID-02) (1993–1999)[48][49]
- Mike Enzi, U.S. senator (WY)[48][49]
- Deb Fischer, U.S. senator (NE)[48][49]
- Jim Inhofe, U.S. senator (OK) and former U.S. representative (R-OK-01) (1987–1994)[48][49]
- Johnny Isakson, former U.S. senator (GA) (2005–2019) and U.S. Representative (R-GA-06) (1999–2005)[48][49]
- Ron Johnson, U.S. senator (WI)[48][49]
- Pat Roberts, U.S. senator (KS) and former U.S. Representative (KS-01) (1981–1997)[48][49]
- Richard Shelby, U.S. senator (AL) and former U.S. Representative (AL-07) (1979–1987)[50][48][49]
Organizations
Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, journalist and political commentator[54]
Tommy Tuberville
Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[55]
State officials
- Will Ainsworth, lieutenant governor[56]
- Tom Whatley, state senator[57]
Organizations
Individuals
- Randy Owen, country music artist, lead singer of Alabama[60]
- Bruce Pearl, head coach of the Auburn Tigers men's basketball team[61]
- Sean Spicer, former White House Press Secretary (2017)[62]
First round
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Stanley Adair |
Mo Brooks |
Bradley Byrne |
Del Marsh |
John Merrill |
Arnold Mooney |
Roy Moore |
Ruth Page Nelson |
Gary Palmer |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[63][A] | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | 29% | 32% | <1% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[64][A] | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | 34% | 29% | – | 15% |
| Harper Polling[65][B] | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | 26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 29% | 2% | 16% |
| OnMessage[67][C] | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 21% | – | – |
| OnMessage[68][C] | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | 44% | 21% | – | 12% |
| Cherry Communications[69][D] | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | 35% | 31% | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence[70][A] | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | 36% | 23% | – | – |
| Cygnal[71] | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% | – | 28% |
| Tommy for Senate[72][E] | Released on October 5, 2019 |
– (LV)[b] | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 36% | – | 26% |
| Moore Information[73][F] | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 33% | 3% | 17% |
| Cygnal[74] | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 22% |
| – | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 29% | 21% | – | – | ||||
| Moore Information[75][F] | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | 18% | – | – | – | 23% | 6% | 28% |
| Mason-Dixon[76] | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | 18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2%[c] | 25% |
| Victory Phones[77][G] | Released in February 2019 |
400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | 27% |
Primary results
Tuberville
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Sessions
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Byrne
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 239,616 | 33.39% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 227,088 | 31.64% | |
| Republican | Bradley Byrne | 178,627 | 24.89% | |
| Republican | Roy Moore | 51,377 | 7.16% | |
| Republican | Ruth Page Nelson | 7,200 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Arnold Mooney | 7,149 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Stanley Adair | 6,608 | 0.92% | |
| Total votes | 717,665 | 100.00% | ||
Runoff
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,[79] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[80]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery[81] | July 2–9, 2020 | 558 (RV) | ± 6% | 31% | 47% | 22%[d] |
| OnMessage (R)[82][C] | May 26–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 49% | 8%[e] |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | May 14–18, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 32% | 54% | 14%[f] |
| Cygnal[84] | May 7–10, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.98% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | March, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 36% | 54% | 10%[g] |
| OnMessage (R)[85][C] | March 8–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Cygnal[86] | March 6–8, 2020 | 645 (LV) | + 3.86% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Moore Information Group[87][F] | March 5–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| WT&S Consulting[88] | March 5, 2020 | 1,234 (LV) | + 3.29% | 42% | 49% | 8%[e] |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer
with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions
with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne
with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore
|
Results
Tuberville
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Sessions
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 334,675 | 60.73% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 216,452 | 39.27% | |
| Total votes | 551,127 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[97] | Lean R (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[98] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[100] | Likely R (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[101] | Lean R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[102] | Likely R (flip) | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[103] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[104] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[105] | Safe R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Post-primary endorsements
Doug Jones (D)
Individuals
- Charles C. Krulak, retired Marine Corps general and former Joint Chiefs of Staff member[106] (Republican)
Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC[107]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[108]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[109]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[110]
Unions
Tommy Tuberville (R)
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Tommy Tuberville (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable[116] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 294 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 42% | 58% | – | – |
| Data for Progress[117] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 56% | 0%[h] | – |
| Morning Consult[118] | October 22–31, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 3% | 39% | 51% | – | – |
| Auburn University At Montgomery[119] | October 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 54% | 3% | – |
| Swayable[120] | October 23–26, 2020 | 232 (LV) | ± 8.7% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| Cygnal[121] | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 55% | – | 4% |
| Moore Information (R)[122][F] | October 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 55% | – | – |
| FM3 Research (D)[123][H] | October 11–14, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | – | 5%[i] |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[124] | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 54% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult[125] | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | 52% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[126] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 52% | 4%[j] | 9% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[127] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 44% | 7%[k] | 14% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[128][K] | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV)[l] | ± 3.8% | 40% | 50% | – | – |
| ALG Research (D)[129] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[130] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 50% | 2%[m] | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
With Jeff Sessions
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Jeff Sessions (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery[132] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 49% | 7%[n] | 1% |
| ALG Research (D)[129] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[130] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 35% | 45% | 3%[o] | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
With Bradley Byrne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Bradley Byrne (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon[90] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
With Arnold Mooney
With Roy Moore
With Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[76] | Apr 9–11, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
With Generic Opponent
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 1,392,076 | 60.10% | +11.76% | |
| Democratic | Doug Jones (incumbent) | 920,478 | 39.74% | −10.23% | |
| Write-in | 3,891 | 0.17% | −1.06% | ||
| Total votes | 2,316,445 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
By county
| County[133] | Doug Jones Democratic |
Tommy Tuberville Republican |
Write-in Various |
Margin | Total votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | |
| Autauga | 8,277 | 29.87% | 19,387 | 69.97% | 43 | 0.16% | 11,110 | 40.10% | 27,707 |
| Baldwin | 28,925 | 26.45% | 80,200 | 73.34% | 225 | 0.21% | 51,275 | 46.89% | 109,350 |
| Barbour | 5,021 | 47.91% | 5,449 | 52.00% | 9 | 0.09% | 428 | 4.08% | 10,479 |
| Bibb | 2,244 | 23.42% | 7,320 | 76.40% | 17 | 0.18% | 5,076 | 52.98% | 9,581 |
| Blount | 3,290 | 11.96% | 24,163 | 87.85% | 53 | 0.19% | 20,873 | 75.89% | 27,506 |
| Bullock | 3,490 | 75.87% | 1,108 | 24.09% | 2 | 0.04% | -2,382 | -51.78% | 4,600 |
| Butler | 4,193 | 44.44% | 5,232 | 55.45% | 11 | 0.12% | 1,039 | 11.01% | 9,436 |
| Calhoun | 16,808 | 33.07% | 33,936 | 66.78% | 77 | 0.15% | 17,128 | 33.70% | 50,821 |
| Chambers | 6,908 | 45.35% | 8,312 | 54.56% | 14 | 0.09% | 1,404 | 9.22% | 15,234 |
| Cherokee | 2,112 | 17.24% | 10,122 | 82.62% | 17 | 0.14% | 8,010 | 65.38% | 12,251 |
| Chilton | 3,499 | 18.20% | 15,708 | 81.69% | 22 | 0.11% | 12,209 | 63.49% | 19,229 |
| Choctaw | 3,225 | 43.49% | 4,188 | 56.47% | 3 | 0.04% | 963 | 12.99% | 7,416 |
| Clarke | 6,017 | 45.98% | 7,061 | 53.95% | 9 | 0.07% | 1,044 | 7.98% | 13,087 |
| Clay | 1,441 | 20.87% | 5,454 | 79.01% | 8 | 0.12% | 4,013 | 58.13% | 6,903 |
| Cleburne | 843 | 11.76% | 6,321 | 88.17% | 5 | 0.07% | 5,478 | 76.41% | 7,169 |
| Coffee | 5,753 | 25.94% | 16,400 | 73.95% | 25 | 0.11% | 10,647 | 48.01% | 22,178 |
| Colbert | 9,408 | 33.86% | 18,320 | 65.94% | 53 | 0.19% | 8,912 | 32.08% | 27,781 |
| Conecuh | 3,098 | 48.44% | 3,294 | 51.50% | 4 | 0.06% | 196 | 3.06% | 6,396 |
| Coosa | 1,899 | 34.74% | 3,559 | 65.10% | 9 | 0.16% | 1,660 | 30.36% | 5,467 |
| Covington | 3,214 | 18.52% | 14,120 | 81.37% | 19 | 0.11% | 10,906 | 62.85% | 17,353 |
| Crenshaw | 1,910 | 28.99% | 4,671 | 70.89% | 8 | 0.12% | 2,761 | 41.90% | 6,589 |
| Cullman | 5,693 | 13.64% | 35,949 | 86.14% | 93 | 0.22% | 30,256 | 72.50% | 41,735 |
| Dale | 5,955 | 30.32% | 13,653 | 69.51% | 33 | 0.17% | 7,698 | 39.19% | 19,641 |
| Dallas | 12,503 | 70.18% | 5,298 | 29.74% | 15 | 0.08% | -7,205 | -40.44% | 17,816 |
| DeKalb | 5,253 | 17.96% | 23,940 | 81.86% | 53 | 0.18% | 18,687 | 63.90% | 29,246 |
| Elmore | 11,399 | 27.86% | 29,459 | 72.00% | 60 | 0.15% | 18,060 | 44.14% | 40,918 |
| Escambia | 5,400 | 34.11% | 10,417 | 65.80% | 14 | 0.09% | 5,017 | 31.69% | 15,831 |
| Etowah | 13,145 | 27.62% | 34,351 | 72.18% | 93 | 0.20% | 21,206 | 44.56% | 47,589 |
| Fayette | 1,651 | 18.87% | 7,088 | 81.00% | 12 | 0.14% | 5,437 | 62.13% | 8,751 |
| Franklin | 2,605 | 20.87% | 9,856 | 78.97% | 20 | 0.16% | 7,251 | 58.10% | 12,481 |
| Geneva | 2,122 | 16.95% | 10,382 | 82.91% | 18 | 0.14% | 8,260 | 65.96% | 12,522 |
| Greene | 3,962 | 82.90% | 816 | 17.07% | 1 | 0.02% | -3,146 | -65.83% | 4,779 |
| Hale | 4,786 | 60.74% | 3,090 | 39.21% | 4 | 0.05% | -1,696 | -21.52% | 7,880 |
| Henry | 2,872 | 30.95% | 6,399 | 68.95% | 9 | 0.10% | 3,527 | 38.01% | 9,280 |
| Houston | 14,494 | 31.49% | 31,462 | 68.35% | 77 | 0.17% | 16,968 | 36.86% | 46,033 |
| Jackson | 4,587 | 19.52% | 18,888 | 80.36% | 29 | 0.12% | 14,301 | 60.84% | 23,504 |
| Jefferson | 190,644 | 58.57% | 134,314 | 41.26% | 552 | 0.17% | -56,330 | -17.31% | 325,510 |
| Lamar | 1,071 | 14.95% | 6,088 | 85.00% | 3 | 0.04% | 5,017 | 70.05% | 7,162 |
| Lauderdale | 13,874 | 31.51% | 30,071 | 68.29% | 88 | 0.20% | 16,197 | 36.78% | 44,033 |
| Lawrence | 4,211 | 26.39% | 11,710 | 73.40% | 33 | 0.21% | 7,499 | 47.00% | 15,954 |
| Lee | 29,986 | 42.08% | 41,154 | 57.76% | 114 | 0.16% | 11,168 | 15.67% | 71,254 |
| Limestone | 15,584 | 31.78% | 33,364 | 68.04% | 90 | 0.18% | 17,780 | 36.26% | 49,038 |
| Lowndes | 5,051 | 74.07% | 1,766 | 25.90% | 2 | 0.03% | -3,285 | -48.17% | 6,819 |
| Macon | 7,224 | 82.87% | 1,481 | 16.99% | 12 | 0.14% | -5,743 | -65.88% | 8,717 |
| Madison | 94,458 | 48.67% | 99,181 | 51.10% | 443 | 0.23% | 4,723 | 2.43% | 194,082 |
| Marengo | 5,687 | 52.36% | 5,166 | 47.56% | 9 | 0.08% | -521 | -4.80% | 10,862 |
| Marion | 1,847 | 13.42% | 11,897 | 86.46% | 16 | 0.12% | 10,050 | 73.04% | 13,760 |
| Marshall | 7,336 | 18.57% | 32,086 | 81.22% | 83 | 0.21% | 24,750 | 62.65% | 39,505 |
| Mobile | 86,034 | 47.10% | 96,320 | 52.73% | 315 | 0.17% | 10,286 | 5.63% | 182,669 |
| Monroe | 4,719 | 44.35% | 5,906 | 55.50% | 16 | 0.15% | 1,187 | 11.15% | 10,641 |
| Montgomery | 66,592 | 67.31% | 32,221 | 32.57% | 125 | 0.13% | -34,371 | -34.74% | 98,938 |
| Morgan | 15,108 | 28.24% | 38,280 | 71.55% | 111 | 0.21% | 23,172 | 43.31% | 53,499 |
| Perry | 3,943 | 75.58% | 1,274 | 24.42% | 0 | 0.00% | -2,669 | -51.16% | 5,217 |
| Pickens | 4,193 | 43.48% | 5,439 | 56.40% | 11 | 0.11% | 1,246 | 12.92% | 9,643 |
| Pike | 6,020 | 43.59% | 7,777 | 56.31% | 14 | 0.10% | 1,757 | 12.72% | 13,811 |
| Randolph | 2,362 | 21.93% | 8,400 | 77.98% | 10 | 0.09% | 6,038 | 56.05% | 10,772 |
| Russell | 11,853 | 55.77% | 9,383 | 44.14% | 19 | 0.09% | -2,470 | -11.62% | 21,255 |
| Shelby | 36,606 | 31.92% | 77,836 | 67.87% | 236 | 0.21% | 41,230 | 35.95% | 114,678 |
| St. Clair | 8,844 | 19.94% | 35,426 | 79.89% | 76 | 0.17% | 26,582 | 59.94% | 44,346 |
| Sumter | 4,705 | 75.18% | 1,550 | 24.77% | 3 | 0.05% | -3,155 | -50.42% | 6,258 |
| Talladega | 13,855 | 38.89% | 21,726 | 60.99% | 44 | 0.12% | 7,871 | 22.09% | 35,625 |
| Tallapoosa | 6,255 | 29.87% | 14,668 | 70.04% | 20 | 0.10% | 8,413 | 40.17% | 20,943 |
| Tuscaloosa | 40,404 | 44.92% | 49,347 | 54.87% | 190 | 0.21% | 8,943 | 9.94% | 89,941 |
| Walker | 5,978 | 19.25% | 25,016 | 80.54% | 65 | 0.21% | 19,038 | 61.30% | 31,059 |
| Washington | 2,635 | 29.92% | 6,162 | 69.98% | 9 | 0.10% | 3,527 | 40.05% | 8,806 |
| Wilcox | 4,095 | 69.65% | 1,779 | 30.26% | 5 | 0.09% | -2,316 | -39.39% | 5,879 |
| Winston | 1,302 | 11.59% | 9,915 | 88.29% | 13 | 0.12% | 8,613 | 76.70% | 11,230 |
| Total | 920,478 | 39.74% | 1,392,076 | 60.10% | 3,891 | 0.17% | 471,598 | 20.36% | 2,316,445 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Barbour (largest city: Eufaula)
- Butler (largest city: Greenville)
- Chambers (largest city: Valley)
- Choctaw (largest town: Butler)
- Clarke (largest city: Jackson)
- Conecuh (largest city: Evergreen)
- Lee (largest city: Auburn)
- Madison (largest city: Huntsville)
- Mobile (largest city: Mobile)
- Pickens (largest city: Aliceville)
- Talladega (largest city: Talladega)
- Tuscaloosa (largest city: Tuscaloosa)
By congressional district
Tuberville won six of seven congressional districts.[134]
| District | Jones | Tuberville | Elected representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 61% | Jerry Carl |
| 2nd | 38% | 62% | Barry Moore |
| 3rd | 36% | 64% | Mike Rogers |
| 4th | 21% | 79% | Robert Aderholt |
| 5th | 39% | 60% | Mo Brooks |
| 6th | 35% | 65% | Gary Palmer |
| 7th | 73% | 27% | Terri Sewell |
Analysis
The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.
In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Auburn-Opelika, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt.[135] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconduct allegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements.[136][137][138] With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020,[139] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.
Notes
Partisan clients and other notes
- The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign and has also endorsed Tuberville
- Poll sponsored by the Bradley Byrne campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Jeff Sessions campaign
- Poll sponsored by FarmPAC
- Internal poll from Tuberville's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Tommy Tuberville campaign.
- Poll produced, according to Mo Brooks, by a group attempting to persuade him to enter this race
- Poll sponsored by Jones' campaign.
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- Standard VI response
- Poll sponsored by the Club for Growth, which supports exclusively Republican candidates.
- "Jones does not deserve to be re-elected" with 48% as opposed to "Jones deserves to be re-elected"
Voter samples
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Not yet released
- Tim James with 2%
- Undecided with 22%
- Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 14%
- Undecided with 10%
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 4%
- "Write-in candidate" with 7%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Parrish (I) with 2%
- "Write-in candidate" with 7%
- Parrish (I) with 3%