2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 68.67% (of eligible voters) ( 6.31 pp) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[3] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.[4][5]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[6] He also won over Native Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote.[7][8] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.
This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.[9][10] This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[11] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 144,067 | 91.25 | 22 |
| Uncommitted | 13,809 | 8.75 | 0 |
| Total | 157,876 | 100% | 22 |
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 181,700 | 73.30 | 30 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 37,435 | 15.10 | 4 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 14,552 | 5.87 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 4,026 | 1.62 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 2,735 | 1.10 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 971 | 0.39 | |
| Uncommitted Delegate | 6,461 | 2.61 | |
| Total | 247,880 | 100% | 34 |
Libertarian primary
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June 2, 2020
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 Election results by county
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| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Jorgensen (nominee)[a] | 520 | 33.12% |
| Uncommitted | 330 | 21.02% |
| Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) | 158 | 10.06% |
| Jacob Hornberger (lost)[a] | 154 | 9.81% |
| Adam Kokesh (lost)[a] | 124 | 7.90% |
| Sam Robb (lost)[a] | 90 | 5.73% |
| John Monds (lost)[a] | 63 | 4.01% |
| Dan Behrman (lost)[a] | 58 | 3.69% |
| Arvin Vohra (lost)[a] | 39 | 2.48% |
| James Ogle (lost)[a] | 34 | 2.17% |
| Total | 1,557 | 100% |
General election
Final predictions
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid D |
| Inside Elections[19] | Solid D |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Likely D |
| Politico[21] | Likely D |
| RCP[22] | Lean D |
| Niskanen[23] | Safe D |
| CNN[24] | Solid D |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D |
| CBS News[26] | Likely D |
| 270towin[27] | Likely D |
| ABC News[28] | Solid D |
| NPR[29] | Likely D |
| NBC News[30] | Likely D |
| 538[31] | Solid D |
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[32] | October 6 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.5% | 40.5% | 6.0% | Biden +13.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[33] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.8% | 42.3% | 3.9% | Biden +11.5 |
| Average | 53.7% | 41.4% | 4.9% | Biden +12.3 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,481 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42%[d] | 56% | – | – | – | – |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[35] | Oct 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 54% | – | – | 3%[e] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,719 (LV) | – | 46% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[36][A] | Oct 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[37] | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 53% | 2% | – | 2%[f] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | – | 44% | 54% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[38] | Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 39% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 506 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[39] | Jun 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 53% | – | – | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[40][B] | Apr 20–21, 2020 | 1,091 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[41] | Jan 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
501,614 | 54.29 | +6.03 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) |
401,894 | 43.50 | +3.46 | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
12,585 | 1.36 | −7.98 | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
4,426 | 0.48 | −0.76 | |
| Constitution | Sheila "Samm" Tittle[g] David Sandige |
1,806 | 0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,640 | 0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Total votes | 923,965 | 100% | |||
| Democratic win | |||||
By county
| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 193,757 | 61.01% | 116,135 | 36.57% | 7,698 | 2.42% | 77,622 | 24.44% | 317,590 |
| Catron | 595 | 25.58% | 1,698 | 73.00% | 33 | 1.42% | -1,103 | -47.42% | 2,326 |
| Chaves | 6,381 | 28.43% | 15,656 | 69.76% | 406 | 1.81% | -9,275 | -41.33% | 22,443 |
| Cibola | 4,745 | 53.30% | 3,975 | 44.65% | 183 | 2.05% | 770 | 8.65% | 8,903 |
| Colfax | 2,611 | 43.40% | 3,271 | 54.37% | 134 | 2.23% | -660 | -10.97% | 6,016 |
| Curry | 4,307 | 28.52% | 10,444 | 69.16% | 350 | 2.32% | -6,137 | -40.64% | 15,101 |
| De Baca | 231 | 25.64% | 656 | 72.81% | 14 | 1.55% | -425 | -47.17% | 901 |
| Doña Ana | 47,957 | 58.03% | 32,802 | 39.69% | 1,882 | 2.28% | 15,155 | 18.34% | 82,641 |
| Eddy | 5,424 | 23.36% | 17,454 | 75.16% | 344 | 1.48% | -12,030 | -51.80% | 23,222 |
| Grant | 7,590 | 52.58% | 6,553 | 45.40% | 292 | 2.02% | 1,037 | 7.18% | 14,435 |
| Guadalupe | 1,234 | 56.37% | 917 | 41.89% | 38 | 1.74% | 317 | 14.48% | 2,189 |
| Harding | 179 | 35.45% | 319 | 63.17% | 7 | 1.38% | -140 | -27.72% | 505 |
| Hidalgo | 823 | 41.69% | 1,120 | 56.74% | 31 | 1.57% | -297 | -15.05% | 1,974 |
| Lea | 4,061 | 19.41% | 16,531 | 79.03% | 326 | 1.56% | -12,470 | -59.62% | 20,918 |
| Lincoln | 3,194 | 30.99% | 6,942 | 67.36% | 170 | 1.65% | -3,748 | -36.37% | 10,306 |
| Los Alamos | 7,554 | 61.45% | 4,278 | 34.80% | 461 | 3.75% | 3,276 | 26.65% | 12,293 |
| Luna | 3,563 | 43.97% | 4,408 | 54.40% | 132 | 1.63% | -845 | -10.43% | 8,103 |
| McKinley | 18,029 | 68.07% | 7,801 | 29.45% | 656 | 2.48% | 10,228 | 38.62% | 26,486 |
| Mora | 1,745 | 64.97% | 903 | 33.62% | 38 | 1.41% | 842 | 31.35% | 2,686 |
| Otero | 8,485 | 36.00% | 14,521 | 61.61% | 565 | 2.39% | -6,036 | -25.61% | 23,571 |
| Quay | 1,170 | 30.21% | 2,634 | 68.01% | 69 | 1.78% | -1,464 | -37.80% | 3,873 |
| Rio Arriba | 10,990 | 66.09% | 5,408 | 32.52% | 230 | 1.39% | 5,582 | 33.57% | 16,628 |
| Roosevelt | 1,802 | 27.27% | 4,634 | 70.13% | 172 | 2.60% | -2,832 | -42.86% | 6,608 |
| San Juan | 18,083 | 34.58% | 32,874 | 62.86% | 1,337 | 2.56% | -14,791 | -28.28% | 52,294 |
| San Miguel | 7,888 | 68.41% | 3,421 | 29.67% | 222 | 1.92% | 4,467 | 38.74% | 11,531 |
| Sandoval | 40,588 | 53.01% | 34,174 | 44.64% | 1,800 | 2.35% | 6,414 | 8.37% | 76,562 |
| Santa Fe | 62,530 | 76.05% | 18,329 | 22.29% | 1,368 | 1.66% | 44,201 | 53.76% | 82,227 |
| Sierra | 2,265 | 38.10% | 3,542 | 59.58% | 138 | 2.32% | -1,277 | -21.48% | 5,945 |
| Socorro | 3,722 | 51.98% | 3,255 | 45.46% | 183 | 1.86% | 467 | 6.52% | 7,160 |
| Taos | 13,121 | 76.37% | 3,715 | 21.62% | 345 | 2.01% | 9,406 | 54.75% | 17,181 |
| Torrance | 2,344 | 32.19% | 4,772 | 65.54% | 165 | 2.27% | -2,428 | -33.35% | 7,281 |
| Union | 383 | 21.41% | 1,388 | 77.59% | 18 | 1.00% | -1,005 | -56.18% | 1,789 |
| Valencia | 14,263 | 44.19% | 17,364 | 53.80% | 650 | 2.01% | -3,101 | -9.61% | 32,277 |
| Totals | 501,614 | 54.29% | 401,894 | 43.50% | 20,457 | 2.21% | 99,720 | 10.79% | 923,965 |
By congressional district
Biden won two of three congressional districts.[43]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37% | 60% | Deb Haaland |
| 2nd | 55% | 43% | Xochitl Torres Small |
| Yvette Herrell | |||
| 3rd | 40% | 58% | Ben Ray Luján |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Analysis
The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[44]
On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).
Aftermath
On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.[45][46] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith[47] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[48]
See also
Notes
- Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23,[15] ten days before the New Mexico primary, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[16]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Other candidate" with 3%
- "other" with 2%
- The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.
Partisan clients