2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Rhode Island voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 67.6%  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Prior to the election, Rhode Island was considered to be a state Biden would win or a safe blue state. Biden won the state by 20.8 percentage points, receiving 59.4% of the statewide vote to Trump's 38.6%. His margin of victory was an improvement from Hillary Clinton's 15.5-point victory in 2016, though still noticeably trailing Barack Obama's near 28-point margins in the state in 2008 and 2012. Rhode Island became one of three states where Biden won every county during the election, the other two being Massachusetts and Hawaii.
Rhode Island voted 17% more Democratic than the national average.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 23, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]
Republican primary
Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 19 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[6] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 79,728 | 76.67 | 25 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 15,525 | 14.93 | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 4,479 | 4.31 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 802 | 0.77 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 651 | 0.63 | |
| Write-in votes | 936 | 0.90 | |
| Uncommitted | 1,861 | 1.79 | |
| Total | 103,982 | 100% | 26 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[10] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[11] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[12] | Likely D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[13] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[15] | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[16] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[17] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[18] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[19] | Likely D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[20] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[21] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 62.9% | 32.4% | 4.7% | Biden +30.6 |
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 36%[c] | 62% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 910 (LV) | – | 32% | 67% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 351 (LV) | – | 37% | 62% | - | – | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 208 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | - | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 253 (LV) | – | 39% | 60% | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 176 (LV) | – | 40% | 60% | - | – | 1% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
307,486 | 59.39% | +4.98% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
199,922 | 38.61% | −0.29% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
5,053 | 0.98% | −2.20% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
923 | 0.18% | +0.04% | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
847 | 0.16% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
767 | 0.15% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,759 | 0.53% | -1.50% | ||
| Total votes | 517,757 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bristol | 18,050 | 63.52% | 9,745 | 34.30% | 620 | 2.18% | 8,305 | 29.22% | 28,415 |
| Kent | 49,113 | 52.76% | 42,001 | 45.12% | 1,979 | 2.12% | 7,112 | 7.64% | 93,093 |
| Newport | 29,486 | 63.89% | 15,722 | 34.07% | 940 | 2.04% | 13,764 | 29.82% | 46,148 |
| Providence | 165,012 | 60.52% | 102,551 | 37.61% | 5,104 | 1.87% | 62,461 | 22.91% | 272,667 |
| Washington | 44,549 | 58.57% | 29,818 | 39.20% | 1,693 | 2.23% | 14,731 | 19.37% | 76,060 |
| Totals | 306,210 | 59.39% | 199,922 | 38.61% | 10,349 | 2.00% | 107,564 | 20.78% | 517,757 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By municipality
| Municipality | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Jo Jorgensen | Other | Margin | Total votes cast | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Barrington | 7,713 | 71.2% | 2,889 | 26.7% | 113 | 1.0% | 117 | 1.0% | 4,824 | 44.5% | 10,832 |
| Bristol | 6,813 | 58.4% | 4,595 | 39.4% | 139 | 1.2% | 110 | 0.9% | 2,218 | 19.0% | 11,657 |
| Burrillville | 3,434 | 40.2% | 4,906 | 57.5% | 126 | 1.5% | 72 | 0.9% | -1,472 | -17.3% | 8,538 |
| Central Falls | 3,073 | 71.9% | 1,113 | 26.1% | 25 | 0.6% | 61 | 1.4% | 1,960 | 45.8% | 4,272 |
| Charlestown | 2,909 | 55.7% | 2,198 | 42.1% | 64 | 1.2% | 49 | 1.0% | 711 | 13.6% | 5,220 |
| Coventry | 9,123 | 45.6% | 10,461 | 52.3% | 232 | 1.2% | 188 | 0.9% | -1,338 | -6.7% | 20,004 |
| Cranston | 23,039 | 56.1% | 17,313 | 42.2% | 311 | 0.8% | 390 | 1.0% | 5,726 | 13.9% | 41,053 |
| Cumberland | 10,869 | 55.2% | 8,418 | 42.8% | 206 | 1.0% | 185 | 0.9% | 2,451 | 12.4% | 19,678 |
| East Greenwich | 5,218 | 60.3% | 3,227 | 37.3% | 104 | 1.2% | 98 | 1.1% | 1,991 | 23.0% | 8,647 |
| East Providence | 14,735 | 63.6% | 7,930 | 34.3% | 204 | 0.9% | 284 | 1.3% | 6,805 | 29.3% | 23,153 |
| Exeter | 1,974 | 48.4% | 2,009 | 49.2% | 55 | 1.3% | 44 | 1.1% | -35 | -0.8% | 4,082 |
| Foster | 1,224 | 42.7% | 1,582 | 55.2% | 34 | 1.2% | 25 | 0.8% | -358 | -12.5% | 2,865 |
| Glocester | 2,638 | 43.2% | 3,351 | 54.8% | 62 | 1.0% | 62 | 1.0% | -713 | -11.6% | 6,113 |
| Hopkinton | 2,298 | 47.4% | 2,423 | 50.0% | 74 | 1.5% | 51 | 1.0% | -125 | -2.6% | 4,846 |
| Jamestown | 2,795 | 68.4% | 1,212 | 29.7% | 44 | 1.1% | 33 | 0.8% | 1,583 | 38.7% | 4,084 |
| Johnston | 6,838 | 44.8% | 8,222 | 53.9% | 88 | 0.6% | 115 | 0.8% | -1,384 | -9.1% | 15,263 |
| Lincoln | 6,633 | 52.3% | 5,779 | 45.6% | 130 | 1.0% | 129 | 1.0% | 854 | 6.7% | 12,671 |
| Little Compton | 1,524 | 60.1% | 951 | 37.5% | 28 | 1.1% | 32 | 1.2% | 573 | 22.6% | 2,535 |
| Middletown | 5,529 | 64.2% | 2,885 | 33.5% | 115 | 1.3% | 79 | 0.9% | 2,644 | 30.7% | 8,608 |
| Narragansett | 5,333 | 59.1% | 3,551 | 39.3% | 56 | 0.6% | 90 | 1.1% | 1,782 | 19.8% | 9,030 |
| New Shoreham | 748 | 78.3% | 195 | 20.4% | 4 | 0.4% | 8 | 0.8% | 553 | 57.9% | 955 |
| Newport | 7,866 | 73.4% | 2,662 | 24.9% | 85 | 0.8% | 99 | 0.9% | 5,204 | 48.5% | 10,712 |
| North Kingstown | 10,534 | 59.9% | 6,633 | 37.7% | 203 | 1.2% | 207 | 1.2% | 3,901 | 22.2% | 17,577 |
| North Providence | 9,438 | 56.0% | 7,129 | 42.3% | 145 | 0.9% | 139 | 0.8% | 2,309 | 13.7% | 16,851 |
| North Smithfield | 3,507 | 48.7% | 3,550 | 49.3% | 85 | 1.2% | 64 | 0.9% | -43 | -0.6% | 7,206 |
| Pawtucket | 18,053 | 70.0% | 7,257 | 28.1% | 188 | 0.7% | 290 | 1.2% | 10,796 | 41.9% | 25,788 |
| Portsmouth | 6,649 | 60.9% | 3,995 | 36.6% | 148 | 1.4% | 125 | 1.1% | 2,654 | 24.3% | 10,917 |
| Providence | 45,941 | 80.4% | 10,186 | 17.8% | 346 | 0.6% | 694 | 1.2% | 35,755 | 62.6% | 57,167 |
| Richmond | 2,346 | 48.8% | 2,343 | 48.7% | 66 | 1.4% | 53 | 1.1% | 3 | 0.1% | 4,808 |
| Scituate | 2,735 | 40.9% | 3,806 | 57.0% | 69 | 1.0% | 73 | 1.1% | -1,071 | -16.1% | 6,683 |
| Smithfield | 5,566 | 48.3% | 5,744 | 49.8% | 118 | 1.0% | 100 | 0.9% | -178 | -1.5% | 11,528 |
| South Kingstown | 11,254 | 67.4% | 5,003 | 30.0% | 212 | 1.3% | 219 | 1.3% | 6,251 | 37.4% | 16,688 |
| Tiverton | 5,123 | 55.1% | 4,017 | 43.2% | 84 | 0.9% | 68 | 0.7% | 1,106 | 11.9% | 9,292 |
| Warren | 3,524 | 59.5% | 2,261 | 38.2% | 74 | 1.2% | 67 | 1.1% | 1,263 | 21.3% | 5,926 |
| Warwick | 25,845 | 55.7% | 19,578 | 42.2% | 545 | 1.2% | 473 | 1.0% | 6,267 | 13.5% | 46,441 |
| West Greenwich | 1,693 | 42.3% | 2,242 | 56.0% | 41 | 1.0% | 24 | 0.6% | -549 | -13.7% | 4,000 |
| West Warwick | 7,234 | 51.7% | 6,493 | 46.4% | 143 | 1.0% | 131 | 0.9% | 741 | 5.3% | 14,001 |
| Westerly | 7,153 | 55.6% | 5,463 | 42.5% | 127 | 1.0% | 111 | 0.8% | 1,690 | 13.1% | 12,854 |
| Woonsocket | 7,289 | 52.7% | 6,265 | 45.3% | 154 | 1.1% | 130 | 0.9% | 1,024 | 7.4% | 13,838 |
| Totals | 307,486 | 59.4% | 199,922 | 38.6% | 5,053 | 1.0% | 5,296 | 1.0% | 107,564 | 20.8% | 517,757 |
By congressional district
Biden won both congressional districts.[25]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 34% | 64% | David Cicilline |
| 2nd | 42% | 56% | James Langevin |
Analysis
Biden flipped the reliably Democratic Kent County back into the Democratic column, after Trump narrowly flipped it in 2016. Of the fourteen towns that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden flipped back three: Lincoln, Richmond, and West Warwick. Overall, Biden won Rhode Island by 20.8 points, improving on Clinton's 15.5 point win. Rhode Island is the only state in which neither Biden nor Trump broke the all-time Democrat or all-time Republican record for most votes earned in a general election (Lyndon B. Johnson and Dwight D. Eisenhower).
Biden's best towns were Rhode Island's wealthiest (such as Barrington, Jamestown, and East Greenwich) and poorest (such as heavily Latino Central Falls). Trump performed best with middle-income voters. This strength allowed Trump to hold formerly Democratic towns like Johnston, which is largely Catholic and middle-class.[26] According to a post-election voter survey conducted by the Associated Press, Trump carried Catholic voters, 51% to 49%.[27]
Biden became the first Democrat since 1912 to win without the towns of Burrillville and North Smithfield, the first since 1916 to win without Johnston and Smithfield, and the first since 1936 to win without Coventry.