2020 United States presidential election in Vermont
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 73.27%[1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Biden easily emerged victorious in the Green Mountain State 66.09% to 30.67%, a margin of 35.4%. This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956, when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote; with an improvement of 9% in the margin of victory, this marked the strongest leftward shift any state experienced in 2020.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history, as well as the third-largest Democratic margin of victory. Trump carried only one county, sparsely populated Essex bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]
Background
Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.
After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012, and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 33,984 | 86.49 | 17 |
| Bill Weld | 3,971 | 10.11 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 341 | 0.87 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 480 | 1.22 | 0 |
| Overvotes | 37 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Blank votes | 478 | 1.22 | 0 |
| Total | 39,291 | 100% | 17 |
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[9][10] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[11][12]
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| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | 79,921 | 50.57 | 11 |
| Joe Biden | 34,669 | 21.94 | 5 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 19,785 | 12.52 | |
| Michael Bloomberg | 14,828 | 9.38 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] | 3,709 | 2.35 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] | 1,991 | 1.26 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,303 | 0.82 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] | 591 | 0.37 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] | 202 | 0.13 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] | 137 | 0.09 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 135 | 0.09 | |
| Donald Trump (write-in Republican) | 83 | 0.05 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 52 | 0.03 | |
| Hillary Clinton (write-in) | 5 | 0.00 | |
| Michael Bennet (write-in) | 3 | 0.00 | |
| Other candidates / Write-in | [c]238 | 0.15 | |
| Overvotes / Blank votes | [d]380 | 0.24 | |
| Total | 158,032 | 100% | 16 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[18] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[19] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[20] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[21] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[22] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[23] | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[24] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[25] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[26] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[27] | Safe D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[28] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 66.5% | 27.8% | 5.7% | Biden +38.7 |
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 26%[g] | 71% | - | - | – | – |
| co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[31][A] | Oct 19–29, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.05% | 32% | 62% | - | - | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,167 (LV) | – | 29% | 69% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 427 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Braun Research/VPR[32] | Sep 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4% | 32% | 56% | - | - | 8%[h] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 236 (LV) | – | 29% | 70% | - | - | – | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 368 (LV) | – | 27% | 71% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 113 (LV) | – | 20% | 75% | - | - | – | 5% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
242,820 | 66.09% | +10.37% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
112,704 | 30.67% | +0.91% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
3,608 | 0.98% | −2.16% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
1,310 | 0.36% | −1.75% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
1,269 | 0.35% | N/A | |
| Grumpy Old Patriots | H. Brooke Paige Thomas Witman |
1,175 | 0.32% | N/A | |
| Independent | Christopher LaFontaine Michael Speed |
856 | 0.23% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bernie Sanders (write-in) |
619 | 0.17% | −5.51% | |
| Independent | Richard Duncan Mitch Bupp |
213 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
209 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
208 | 0.06% | +0.04% | |
| Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
195 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
166 | 0.05% | −0.05% | |
| Boiling Frog | Gary Swing David Olszta |
141 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Prohibition | Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker |
137 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Bull Moose | Keith McCormic Sam Blasiak |
126 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
100 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Bread and Roses | Jerome Segal John De Graaf |
65 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Approval Voting | Blake Huber Frank Atwood |
54 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kyle Kopitke Taja Ivanow |
53 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
48 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Zachary Scalf Matthew Lyda |
29 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,942 | 0.53% | -0.93% | ||
| Total votes | 367,428 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[33] | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Addison | 14,967 | 67.96% | 6,292 | 28.57% | 763 | 3.47% | 8,675 | 39.39% | 22,022 |
| Bennington | 12,705 | 62.09% | 7,114 | 34.77% | 643 | 3.14% | 5,591 | 27.32% | 20,462 |
| Caledonia | 9,011 | 55.73% | 6,551 | 40.52% | 607 | 3.75% | 2,460 | 15.21% | 16,169 |
| Chittenden | 74,961 | 75.78% | 21,017 | 21.25% | 2,937 | 2.97% | 53,944 | 54.53% | 98,915 |
| Essex | 1,405 | 42.73% | 1,773 | 53.92% | 110 | 3.35% | -368 | -11.19% | 3,288 |
| Franklin | 13,611 | 52.69% | 11,274 | 43.65% | 945 | 3.66% | 2,337 | 9.04% | 25,830 |
| Grand Isle | 2,905 | 59.88% | 1,810 | 37.31% | 763 | 2.81% | 1,095 | 22.57% | 4,851 |
| Lamoille | 10,240 | 68.66% | 4,163 | 27.91% | 512 | 3.43% | 6,077 | 40.75% | 14,915 |
| Orange | 10,304 | 60.18% | 6,187 | 36.13% | 631 | 3.69% | 4,117 | 24.05% | 17,122 |
| Orleans | 7,147 | 50.70% | 6,512 | 46.20% | 437 | 3.10% | 635 | 4.50% | 14,096 |
| Rutland | 18,230 | 53.66% | 14,672 | 43.19% | 1,068 | 3.15% | 3,558 | 10.47% | 33,970 |
| Washington | 25,191 | 71.35% | 8,928 | 25.29% | 1,188 | 3.36% | 16,263 | 46.06% | 35,307 |
| Windham | 18,767 | 72.08% | 6,440 | 24.74% | 828 | 3.18% | 12,327 | 47.34% | 26,035 |
| Windsor | 23,376 | 67.86% | 9,971 | 28.95% | 1,099 | 3.19% | 13,405 | 38.91% | 34,446 |
| Totals | 242,820 | 66.09% | 112,704 | 30.67% | 11,904 | 3.24% | 130,116 | 35.42% | 367,428 |
By congressional district
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 30.67% | 66.09% | Peter Welch |
Notes
- Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
- Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
- Including "Blank" (written in) with 8 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards and two others with 2 votes; and 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
- 57 overvotes and 323 blank votes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election