2020 VV
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 The risk corridor for the obsolete 2033 virtual impactor passed over the northeastern USA, Spain, Saudi Arabia, India, and China.[1] | |
| Discovery[2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Survey (G96) |
| Discovery date | 5 November 2020 |
| Designations | |
| 2020 VV | |
| Orbital characteristics[3] | |
| Epoch 2020-May-31 (JD 2459000.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 5 | |
| Observation arc | 61 days[4] |
| Earliest precovery date | 17 October 2020 |
| Aphelion | 1.2367 AU (185,010,000 km) (Q) |
| Perihelion | 0.9830 AU (147,050,000 km) (q) |
| 1.1099 AU (166,040,000 km) (a) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.1143 (e) |
| 1.17 yr | |
| 268.100° (M) | |
| Inclination | 0.350° (i) |
| 20.148° (Ω) | |
| 330.663° (ω) | |
| Earth MOID | 14,800 km |
| Jupiter MOID | 3.96 AU (592,000,000 km) |
| Physical characteristics | |
| ~12 meters (40 feet)[4] 10–22 meters (CNEOS) | |
| 27.25[3] | |
2020 VV is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 12 meters (40 feet) in diameter. On 20 November 2020, the asteroid had a 4.4% chance of impacting Earth on 12 October 2033 11:43 UT.[5] As of mid-December 2020, the asteroid has a modest 61 day observation arc. The nominal Earth approach is on 17 October 2033 at a distance of 0.009 AU (1,300,000 km; 840,000 mi), but the line of variations (LOV) is only known with an accuracy of ±22 hours.[3] The line of variations allows the asteroid to come as close as 0.006 AU (900,000 km; 560,000 mi) or pass as far away as 0.01 AU (1,500,000 km; 930,000 mi).[3] With a diameter range of 10–22 meters the asteroid could be as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor.
2020 VV was discovered on 5 November 2020 when it was about 0.036 AU (5,400,000 km; 3,300,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 150 degrees. It has a very low 0.35° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 14,800 km.[3] The asteroid passed Earth on 21 October 2020 at a distance of 0.0215 AU (3,220,000 km; 2,000,000 mi).[3]
Where Earth will be on a given date is known, but given the short observation arc where precisely the asteroid will be on its orbit in 2033 is not. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause the asteroid to be early, right on time (impact solution), or late.[a]
Impact probabilities are calculated independently by Sentry, NEODyS-2 and ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme. Different models result in slightly different orbit solutions, nominal close approach distances, and impact probabilities.[6] With a long enough observation arc these solutions will converge. In general when the nominal approach is closer to the impact scenario, the odds of impact are greater.
| Date and time | Nominal closest approach | Position uncertainty[b] | Impact probability on 12 Oct 2033[c] |
Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 October 2033 11:43 | expired impact scenario | ±2.5 hours | Sentry[4][a] | |
| 17 October 2033 08:57 | 0.0089 AU (1,330,000 km) | 0.000734 AU (109,800 km) | none | ESA[7][8] |
| 17 October 2033 09:30 | 0.0090 AU (1,350,000 km) | 0.0008398 AU (125,630 km) | none | JPL SBDB[3][4] |
| 17 October 2033 13:26 | 0.0094 AU (1,410,000 km) | 0.000851 AU (127,300 km) | none | NEODyS-2[9] |
The line of variation (risk corridor) for 2033 passed over the northeastern USA, Spain, Saudi Arabia, India, and China.[1]
The greatest chances of impact were listed between 17 and 20 November 2020. On 17 November 2020 the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 4.2% chance (1 in 24) of impact,[10] Sentry listed a 2.8% chance (1 in 36),[11] and NEODyS-2 listed a cumulative 5.9% chance of impact.[11] By 20 November 2020 with a 15-day observation arc NEODyS-2 listed a 4.4% chance (1 in 23) of impact.[5][d] At the same time, Sentry listed a 1.3% chance (1 in 77) of impact, and the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 1.6% chance (1 in 63).
2020 VV is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object, because the estimated size is significantly smaller than the threshold of about 140 meters for potentially hazardous objects.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2056-10-11 00:00 | 1500 | 0.095 AU (14.2 million km)[12] | ±100 million km[12] |
- 1 2 Earth traveling at 30 km/s and with a diameter of 12,800 km, only blocks the path of single virtual impactor for about 8 minutes (30*60*8). Due to an Earth-like orbit, the virtual asteroids can impact Earth for about ±2.5 hours centered around the virtual impactor at 12 October 2033 11:43 UT. If 2020 VV is not crossing Earth's orbit during that time there can be no impact.
- ↑ The JPL SBDB close-approach data min/max distance and time of close approach uncertainty correspond to the 3-sigma level. Stretching "Semi-major axis (km)" corresponds to the 1-sigma uncertainty. 3-sigma uncertainty is 3 times larger.
- ↑ Impact probability examples: 1.00 would be 100%. 2.00E-2 would be 2%.
- ↑ At the same time, NEODyS-2 listed an additional 0.15% chance (1 in 650) of impact at a later date, 10 October 2038.
References
- 1 2 Steven M. Tilley (16 November 2020). "Finding a Risk Corridor For the Asteroid 2020 VV". The Asteroid News. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
- ↑ "MPEC 2020-V35 : 2020 VV". IAU Minor Planet Center. 6 November 2020. Retrieved 14 November 2020. (K20V00V)
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2020 VV)" (last observation: 2020-12-17; arc: 61 days). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 13 November 2020. Retrieved 31 March 2021.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2020 VV". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 18 December 2020.
- 1 2 "Archive: 20 Nov 2020 NEODyS impact probability for 2020 VV". NEODyS-2. 20 November 2020. Archived from the original on 20 November 2020. Retrieved 20 November 2020.
- ↑ "Impact Monitoring information now computed by NEOCC". Retrieved 28 November 2020.
- ↑ "ESA Space Situational Awareness: 2020 VV". esa Space Situational Awareness Programme. Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 18 December 2020.
- ↑ "Possible impacts: 2020 VV". esa Space Situational Awareness Programme. Archived from the original on 20 November 2020. Retrieved 18 December 2020.
- ↑ "2020VV close approaches". NEODyS-2. Archived from the original on 16 November 2020. Retrieved 18 December 2020.
- ↑ "Archive: 17 Nov 2020 esa Space Situational Awareness Risk List (2020 VV)". esa NEO Coordination Centre. 17 November 2020. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
- 1 2 "hohmanntransfer 17 Nov 2020 archive of 2020 VV on NEODyS and Sentry". hohmanntransfer. 17 November 2020. Archived from the original on 23 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
- 1 2 "Horizons Batch for 2056-10-11 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2020-Dec-29 generates RNG_3sigma = 100129229 for 2056-Oct-11.)
External links
- 2020 VV at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- 2020 VV at ESA–space situational awareness
- Table of Asteroids Next Closest Approaches to the Earth Osservatorio Astronomico Sormano
- Sentry (6 Nov 2020) with impact years ranging from 2027-2118 / 2020 VV entries Archived 5 October 2007 at the Wayback Machine – hohmanntransfer
- Asteroid Hazards, Part 3: Finding the Path – YouTube video by the Minor Planet Center (26 August 2015)
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