2024 United States Senate election in Washington
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning over Republican physician Raul Garcia.
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November 5, 2024
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   Cantwell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garcia: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Cantwell improved on her prior 2018 performance despite the Republican national environment. She won 59.09% of the vote, up from 58.43% in 2018 and marking a 1.6% leftward shift from that race. Washington had the smallest swing of any state in the concurrent presidential race, swinging rightward by under 1% from 2020.
Cantwell slightly outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent U.S. presidential election in Washington, winning Pacific County which also voted for Donald Trump. Cantwell won by a margin of 18.45%, narrowly higher than Harris's 18.22% margin.
Primary election
The blanket primary election was held on August 6, 2024.[1]
Democratic candidates
Advanced to general
- Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[3]
Republican candidates
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)[5]
Third party and independent candidates
Eliminated in primary
- Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[3]
- Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[3]
- Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[3]
- David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[3]
Endorsements
Maria Cantwell (D)
Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[6]
- EMILY's List[7]
- Feminist Majority PAC[8]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[9]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[10]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[11]
- J Street PAC[12]
- League of Conservation Voters[13]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[14]
- National Women's Political Caucus[15]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[16]
- Population Connection Action Fund[17]
Labor unions
Newspapers
Tribes
Raul Garcia (R)
U.S. representatives
- Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)[23]
Statewide officials
- Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)[24]
- Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)[24]
- Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)[24]
- Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)[24]
State legislators
- Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)[24]
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties
- Washington State Republican Party[26]
- Spokane County Republican Party[27]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Maria Cantwell (D) | $11,651,974 | $5,128,836 | $7,093,030 |
| Raul Garcia (R) | $558,646 | $394,077 | $164,568 |
| Isaac Holyk (R) | $6,846 | $7,278 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[28] | |||
Results
Cantwell
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 70–80%
Garcia
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Cantwell
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 80–90%
Garcia
- 30–40%
Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties.[29]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 1,114,327 | 57.18% | |
| Republican | Raul Garcia | 431,182 | 22.13% | |
| Republican | Scott Nazarino | 111,386 | 5.72% | |
| Republican | Isaac Holyk | 110,701 | 5.68% | |
| Republican | Mel Ram | 86,956 | 4.46% | |
| Independent | Chuck Jackson | 21,055 | 1.08% | |
| Independent | David Tilton | 17,561 | 0.90% | |
| Democratic | Paul Giesick | 17,433 | 0.89% | |
| Republican | Goodspaceguy | 16,826 | 0.86% | |
| Independent | Thor Amundson | 10,587 | 0.54% | |
| Socialist Workers | Henry Dennison | 7,840 | 0.40% | |
| Write-in | 2,862 | 0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 1,948,716 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Maria Cantwell | Raul Garcia | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 8, 2024 | Gonzaga University KSPS-TV The Black Lens The Spokesman-Review Washington State Debate Coalition |
Orion Donovan Smith | TVW[31] | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[32] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[33] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[35] | Safe D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[36] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[37] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[38] | Solid D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[39] | Safe D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[40] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Raul Garcia (R) |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin[41] | October 20 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 55.5% | 38.0% | 6.5% | Cantwell +17.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[42] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 57.8% | 38.9% | 3.3% | Cantwell +18.9% |
| Average | 56.7% | 38.5% | 4.8% | Cantwell +18.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Raul Garcia (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[43] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] | October 16–17, 2024 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[45][B] | October 9–14, 2024 | 703 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 32% | – | 13% |
| Cascade PBS/Elway Research[46] | September 3–6, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 55% | 33% | 4%[c] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[47][A] | July 24–25, 2024 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 32% | 6%[d] | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[48][B] | July 10–13, 2024 | 564 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[49][A] | May 15–16, 2024 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| Cascade PBS/Elway Research[50] | May 13–16, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 30% | 1%[e] | 30% |
| Echelon Insights (R)[51][C] | March 18–21, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[52][A] | February 13–14, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][A] | November 14–15, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Elway Research[54][D] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 23% | 9%[f] | 25% |
Hypothetical polling
Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[55][A] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[56][A] | March 7–8, 2023 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 35% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 2,252,577 | 59.09% | +0.66% | |
| Republican | Raul Garcia | 1,549,187 | 40.64% | −0.93% | |
| Write-in | 10,627 | 0.28% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 3,812,391 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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By congressional district
Cantwell won seven of ten congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Garcia, including one that elected a Democrat.[59]
| District | Cantwell | Garcia | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63% | 37% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 61% | 39% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 49% | 50% | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez |
| 4th | 41% | 58% | Dan Newhouse |
| 5th | 45% | 54% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress) |
| Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress) | |||
| 6th | 59% | 41% | Derek Kilmer (118th Congress) |
| Emily Randall (119th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 86% | 13% | Pramila Jayapal |
| 8th | 52% | 48% | Kim Schrier |
| 9th | 71% | 28% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 59% | 41% | Marilyn Strickland |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 6%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
- Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
- Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com