2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 
Turnout70.48% (Decrease4.6 pp)
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 2,333,778 2,074,097
Percentage 51.82% 46.06%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Close

Before the election, most news organizations considered Virginia a likely win for Harris. This was the first presidential election in which both major party candidates received more than 2 million votes in Virginia. On election day, Harris won Virginia with 51.82% of the vote, carrying the state by a margin of 5.76%, similar to the 2016 results, albeit slightly wider. In 2016, Virginia U.S. Senator Tim Kaine was the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Kaine also won by a slightly larger 9 percentage point margin in the concurrent 2024 U.S. Senate election in Virginia.

Harris became the first Democratic nominee to win Virginia while losing the nationwide popular vote since 1924, a century earlier. Meanwhile, neighboring West Virginia gave Trump 70% of the vote, with the two states differing by 48 percentage points in margin. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the first Republican to do so since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900.

Virginia is the only former Confederate state which Trump never carried in any of his three presidential campaigns. Although Virginia swung rightward in 2024, it trended leftward and voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation, compared to 5 percentage points in 2020, and 3 percentage points in 2016. This was also the first time a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote won an absolute majority of the vote in Virginia since 1924.[1]

This election confirmed Virginia's status as a blue state. Virginia voted for the loser of the popular vote for the first time since 2000, and the loser of both the electoral vote and popular vote since 1996. This was similar to how Florida in 2024 voted for Trump by over 13%, after Florida in 2020 backed Trump despite him losing both the electoral vote and popular vote.[a]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second-best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.

Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Biden
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
More information Candidate, Votes ...
Virginia Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[2][3]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent) 317,329 88.51 99
Marianne Williamson ⁦28,599 7.98 0
Dean Phillips ⁦12,586 3.51 0
Total 358,514 100% 99
Close

Republican primary

The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.

Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
More information Candidate, Votes ...
Virginia Republican primary, March 5, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 440,416 62.99% 39 3 42
Nikki Haley 244,586 34.98% 6 6
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,494 1.07%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 3,384 0.48%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 2,503 0.36%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 853 0.12%
Total: 699,236 100.00% 45 3 48
Close

General election

Voting law changes

In August 2024, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls.[5][6] In October 2024, the Department of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, accusing that it violated the National Voter Registration Act.[7][8] The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens.[8][9] District judge Patricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed.[10][9] The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order.[11][12] The administration filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6–3 decision, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.[13][12]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[14] Likely D June 12, 2024
Inside Elections[15] Likely D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Likely D August 27, 2024
The Economist[17] Likely D September 10, 2024
CNalysis[18] Solid D September 15, 2024
CNN[19] Lean D August 18, 2024
538[20] Likely D August 23, 2024
NBC News[21] Likely D October 6, 2024
YouGov[22] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[23] Likely D November 1, 2024
Close

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270ToWin[24] October 2 - November 1, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.8% 41.0% 9.2% Harris +8.8%
538[25] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.9% 43.7% 6.4% Harris +6.2%
Silver Bulletin[26] through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 49.5% 43.2% 7.3% Harris +6.3%
The Hill/DDHQ[27] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.1% 45.1% 4.8% Harris +5.0%
Average 49.8% 43.3% 6.9% Harris +6.5%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,202 (LV) ± 2.0% 51% 46% 3%
Research Co.[29] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 45% 4%
ActiVote[30] October 2–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[31][A] October 24–25, 2024 1,014 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 6%[d]
CES/YouGov[32] October 1–25, 2024 2,027 (A) 53% 44% 3%
2,015 (LV) 53% 44% 3%
Quantus Insights (R)[33][B] October 22−24, 2024 725 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 48% 3%
Braun Research[34][C] October 19−23, 2024 1,004 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 42% 9%
1,004 (LV) 49% 43% 8%
Christopher Newport University[35] September 28 − October 4, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 7%[e]
Emerson College[36][D] September 22−24, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 44% 4%[f]
53%[g] 46% 1%[f]
Morning Consult[37] September 9−18, 2024 899 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 44% 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[38][A] September 19−22, 2024 1,144 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%
ActiVote[39] August 19 – September 17, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45%
Research America Inc.[40][E] September 3−9, 2024 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 45% 45% 10%[h]
756 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 46% 6%[i]
Washington Post/Schar School[41] September 4–8, 2024 1,005 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 43% 6%[j]
1,005 (LV) 51% 43% 6%[j]
Morning Consult[37] August 30 – September 8, 2024 873 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 42% 6%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Quantus Insights (R)[42][B] August 20–22, 2024 629 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 9%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
Roanoke College[43] August 12–16, 2024 691 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 44% 10%[k]
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
Emerson College[44] July 14–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 14–15, 2024 301 (RV) 43% 44% 13%[l]
265 (LV) 43% 47% 10%[m]
July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 12–13, 2024 617 (RV) ± 3.9% 45% 41% 14%
544 (LV) 46% 42% 12%
New York Times/Siena College[46] July 9–12, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 44% 8%
661 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 44% 7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[47][F] July 6–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 47% 47% 6%
Close

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,202 (LV) ± 2.0% 51% 45% 2% 1% 1%[n]
Chism Strategies[48] October 28–30, 2024 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 45.2% 44.5% 1.3% 0.6% 8.4%[o]
Cygnal (R)[49] October 27–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% 1% 1% 0% 5%[p]
Roanoke College[50] October 25–29, 2024 851 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 41% 2% 1% 2% 3%[q]
Virginia Commonwealth University[51] September 16–25, 2024 832 (A) ± 4.6% 43% 37% 3% 1% 16%[r]
762 (RV) 47% 37% 2% 1% 13%[s]
Washington Post/Schar School[41] September 4–8, 2024 1,005 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 42% 0% 1% 1% 7%[t]
1,005 (LV) 50% 42% 0% 1% 1% 6%[t]
Virginia Commonwealth University[52] August 26 – September 6, 2024 809 (A) ± 5.0% 46% 36% 2% 1% 15%[u]
749 (RV) 49% 36% 1% 1% 13%[v]
Close
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Research America Inc.[40][E] September 3−9, 2024 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 44% 44% 2% 0% 0% 10%[w]
756 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 46% 2% 0% 0% 6%[x]
Roanoke College[43] August 12–16, 2024 691 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 42% 6% 2% 0% 2% 3%[e]
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
New York Times/Siena College[46] July 9–12, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 38% 9% 0% 1% 0% 11%
661 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 39% 7% 0% 1% 0% 10%
Close

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 14–15, 2024 301 (RV) 40% 41% 7% 12%[m]
265 (LV) 41% 45% 5% 9%[y]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 12–13, 2024 617 (RV) ± 3.9% 41% 37% 10% 12%
544 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 38% 10% 9%
Close
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[44] July 14–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
50%[g] 50%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 14–15, 2024 301 (RV) 41% 44% 15%[l]
265 (LV) 44% 44% 12%[y]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 12–13, 2024 617 (RV) ± 3.9% 45% 41% 14%
544 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 42% 11%
New York Times/Siena College[46] July 9–12, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 44% 10%
661 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 45% 7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[47][F] July 6–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 47% 44% 9%
Fox News[53] June 1–4, 2024 1,107 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Roanoke College[54] May 12–21, 2024 711 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 42% 16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[55][G] April 29 – May 1, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 44% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[56][H] April 26–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 42% 16%
John Zogby Strategies[57][I] April 13–21, 2024 586 (LV) 45% 45% 10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[58] February 29 – March 3, 2024 394 (RV) 47% 42% 11%[z]
368 (LV) 47% 43% 10%[aa]
Roanoke College[59] February 11–19, 2024 705 (A) ± 4.6% 47% 43% 10%
Virginia Commonwealth University[60] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 812 (A) ± 5.4% 43% 40% 17%
Mason-Dixon[61] December 15–19, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Roanoke College[62] November 12–20, 2023 686 (A) ± 4.3% 48% 44% 8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[63] September 16–19, 2023 1,437 (RV) 47% 42% 11%
Research America Inc.[64][E] September 5–11, 2023 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 37% 37% 26%
Roanoke College[65] August 6–15, 2023 702 (A) ± 4.2% 51% 42% 17%
Virginia Commonwealth University[66] July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.4% 43% 40% 17%
Roanoke College[67] May 14–23, 2023 678 (A) ± 4.4% 54% 38% 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[68] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) 48% 41% 11%
Roanoke College[69] February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 47% 46% 6%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[44] July 14–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 43% 8% 2% 2% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[46] July 9–12, 2024 661 (RV) ± 4.2% 38% 36% 9% 0% 2% 15%
661 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 7% 0% 2% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[70] June 24 – July 3, 2024 809 (A) ± 4.8% 36% 39% 9% 1% 2% 13%[ab]
Fox News[53] June 1–4, 2024 1,107 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 41% 9% 2% 2% 4%
Roanoke College[54] May 12–21, 2024 711 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 38% 8% 1% 3% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[55][G] April 29 – May 1, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 37% 8% 1% 2% 12%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 14–15, 2024 301 (RV) 40% 40% 5% 15%[ac]
265 (LV) 43% 42% 4% 11%[ad]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] July 12–13, 2024 617 (RV) ± 3.9% 41% 38% 11% 10%
544 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 39% 10% 9%
co/efficient (R)[71] June 11–12, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 41% 7% 11%
Mason-Dixon[61] December 15–19, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 36% 14% 8%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[63] September 16–19, 2023 1,437 (RV) 40% 39% 7% 14%
37% 37% 5% 21%[ae]
Close
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[57][I] April 13–21, 2024 586 (LV) 42% 47% 11%
Close

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[57][I] April 13–21, 2024 586 (LV) 43% 41% 16%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Roanoke College[59] February 11–19, 2024 705 (A) ± 4.6% 40% 49% 11%
Virginia Commonwealth University[60] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 812 (A) ± 5.4% 38% 43% 19%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University[60] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 812 (A) ± 5.4% 42% 39% 19%
Research America Inc.[64][E] September 5–11, 2023 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 39% 30% 31%
Virginia Commonwealth University[66] July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 41% 41% 18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[68] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) 44% 44% 12%
Roanoke College[69] February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 43% 48% 8%
Close

Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Glenn
Youngkin
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research America Inc.[64][E] September 5–11, 2023 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 37% 34% 29%
Virginia Commonwealth University[66] July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 37% 44% 19%
Roanoke College[69] February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 39% 55% 6%
Close

Results

State Senate district results
State House of Delegates district results
More information Party, Candidate ...
2024 United States presidential election in Virginia[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kamala Harris
Tim Walz
2,333,778 51.82 −2.29
Republican Donald Trump
JD Vance
2,074,097 46.06 +2.06
Green Jill Stein
Butch Ware
34,888 0.77 N/A
Libertarian Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat
19,814 0.44 −1.01
Independent Cornel West
Melina Abdullah
8,984 0.20 N/A
Socialism and Liberation Claudia De la Cruz[af]
Karina Garcia
8,410 0.19 N/A
Write-in 23,365 0.52 +0.08
Total votes 4,505,941 100.00 N/A
Close

By county and independent city

More information Locality, Kamala Harris Democratic ...
Locality[73] Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Accomack 7,374 42.93% 9,659 56.24% 143 0.83% -2,285 -13.30% 17,176
Albemarle 44,279 65.87% 21,513 32.00% 1,432 2.13% 22,766 33.87% 67,224
Alexandria 62,326 77.04% 16,112 19.91% 2,466 3.05% 46,214 57.12% 80,904
Alleghany 2,114 25.49% 6,093 73.47% 86 1.04% -3,979 -47.98% 8,293
Amelia 2,214 27.51% 5,776 71.76% 59 0.73% -3,562 -44.25% 8,049
Amherst 5,429 31.28% 11,742 67.65% 187 1.08% -6,313 -36.37% 17,358
Appomattox 2,324 24.00% 7,243 74.79% 118 1.22% -4,919 -50.79% 9,685
Arlington 100,446 77.53% 25,223 19.47% 3,892 3.00% 75,223 58.06% 129,561
Augusta 11,403 25.67% 32,429 73.01% 585 1.32% -21,026 -47.34% 44,417
Bath 588 22.76% 1,976 76.50% 19 0.74% -1,388 -53.74% 2,583
Bedford 12,414 24.30% 38,017 74.42% 650 1.27% -25,603 -50.12% 51,081
Bland 524 14.74% 2,998 84.33% 33 0.93% -2,474 -69.59% 3,555
Botetourt 5,915 26.91% 15,796 71.87% 267 1.21% -9,881 -44.96% 21,978
Bristol 2,231 29.79% 5,197 69.39% 62 0.83% -2,966 -39.60% 7,490
Brunswick 4,184 53.98% 3,523 45.45% 44 0.57% 661 8.53% 7,751
Buchanan 1,355 14.51% 7,939 85.03% 43 0.46% -6,584 -70.52% 9,337
Buckingham 2,988 37.70% 4,847 61.16% 90 1.14% -1,859 -23.46% 7,925
Buena Vista 767 26.75% 2,035 70.98% 65 2.27% -1,268 -44.23% 2,867
Campbell 7,890 25.22% 23,032 73.62% 365 1.17% -15,142 -48.40% 31,287
Caroline 7,957 44.96% 9,511 53.74% 230 1.30% -1,554 -8.78% 17,698
Carroll 2,925 18.06% 13,152 81.19% 123 0.76% -10,227 -63.13% 16,200
Charles City 2,384 54.77% 1,917 44.04% 52 1.19% 467 10.73% 4,353
Charlotte 2,008 33.36% 3,963 65.83% 49 0.81% -1,955 -32.48% 6,020
Charlottesville 19,435 82.94% 3,428 14.63% 571 2.44% 16,007 68.31% 23,434
Chesapeake 65,399 51.09% 60,550 47.30% 2,052 1.60% 4,849 3.79% 128,001
Chesterfield 112,869 53.59% 94,030 44.64% 3,729 1.77% 18,839 8.94% 210,628
Clarke 3,993 40.58% 5,641 57.33% 205 2.08% -1,648 -16.75% 9,839
Colonial Heights 2,982 33.27% 5,883 65.63% 99 1.10% -2,901 -32.36% 8,964
Covington 818 32.98% 1,642 66.21% 20 0.81% -824 -33.23% 2,480
Craig 542 17.29% 2,562 81.72% 31 0.99% -2,020 -64.43% 3,135
Culpeper 10,557 36.81% 17,685 61.67% 437 1.52% -7,128 -24.85% 28,679
Cumberland 2,117 38.48% 3,335 60.63% 49 0.89% -1,218 -22.14% 5,501
Danville 10,615 59.93% 6,894 38.92% 203 1.15% 3,721 21.01% 17,712
Dickenson 1,316 18.64% 5,701 80.75% 43 0.61% -4,385 -62.11% 7,060
Dinwiddie 5,942 38.06% 9,549 61.17% 120 0.77% -3,607 -23.11% 15,611
Emporia 1,419 65.12% 744 34.14% 16 0.73% 675 30.98% 2,179
Essex 2,775 45.69% 3,245 53.42% 54 0.89% -470 -7.74% 6,074
Fairfax City 8,797 64.84% 4,302 31.71% 468 3.45% 4,495 33.13% 13,567
Fairfax County 386,438 65.56% 181,895 30.86% 21,094 3.58% 204,543 34.70% 589,427
Falls Church 7,200 79.45% 1,620 17.88% 242 2.67% 5,580 61.58% 9,062
Fauquier 17,180 38.38% 26,825 59.92% 763 1.70% -9,645 -21.54% 44,768
Floyd 2,968 30.71% 6,551 67.77% 147 1.52% -3,583 -37.07% 9,666
Fluvanna 7,731 46.17% 8,777 52.42% 235 1.40% -1,046 -6.25% 16,743
Franklin City 2,359 60.69% 1,476 37.97% 52 1.34% 883 22.72% 3,887
Franklin County 8,321 26.82% 22,319 71.95% 380 1.23% -13,998 -45.13% 31,020
Frederick 18,331 35.07% 33,117 63.37% 815 1.56% -14,786 -28.29% 52,263
Fredericksburg 8,760 64.52% 4,480 32.99% 338 2.49% 4,280 31.52% 13,578
Galax 753 27.67% 1,946 71.52% 22 0.81% -1,193 -43.84% 2,721
Giles 2,069 22.34% 7,102 76.67% 92 0.99% -5,033 -54.33% 9,263
Gloucester 7,034 30.28% 15,918 68.53% 276 1.19% -8,884 -38.25% 23,228
Goochland 7,875 39.89% 11,521 58.36% 346 1.75% -3,646 -18.47% 19,742
Grayson 1,503 18.51% 6,544 80.60% 72 0.89% -5,041 -62.09% 8,119
Greene 4,456 36.81% 7,432 61.39% 218 1.80% -2,976 -24.58% 12,106
Greensville 2,334 54.24% 1,936 44.99% 33 0.77% 398 9.25% 4,303
Halifax 6,984 39.08% 10,741 60.10% 146 0.82% -3,757 -21.02% 17,871
Hampton 43,357 69.01% 18,383 29.26% 1,083 1.72% 24,974 39.75% 62,823
Hanover 26,733 36.42% 45,569 62.08% 1,102 1.50% -18,836 -25.66% 73,404
Harrisonburg 10,641 61.40% 6,266 36.15% 425 2.45% 4,375 25.24% 17,332
Henrico 115,040 63.39% 62,882 34.65% 3,567 1.97% 52,158 28.74% 181,489
Henry 8,457 33.20% 16,800 65.95% 217 0.85% -8,343 -32.75% 25,474
Highland 416 27.10% 1,095 71.34% 24 1.56% -679 -44.23% 1,535
Hopewell 5,078 56.26% 3,838 42.52% 110 1.22% 1,240 13.74% 9,026
Isle of Wight 9,779 39.49% 14,659 59.20% 324 1.31% -4,880 -19.71% 24,762
James City 26,742 52.16% 23,575 45.98% 957 1.87% 3,167 6.18% 51,274
King and Queen 1,536 36.68% 2,608 62.27% 44 1.05% -1,072 -25.60% 4,188
King George 5,657 36.65% 9,500 61.54% 280 1.81% -3,843 -24.89% 15,437
King William 3,388 29.25% 8,080 69.76% 115 0.99% -4,692 -40.51% 11,583
Lancaster 3,355 45.88% 3,866 52.86% 92 1.26% -511 -6.99% 7,313
Lee 1,391 13.74% 8,674 85.69% 57 0.56% -7,283 -71.95% 10,122
Lexington 1,795 62.00% 1,030 35.58% 70 2.42% 765 26.42% 2,895
Loudoun 129,280 56.28% 92,107 40.10% 8,305 3.62% 37,173 16.18% 229,692
Louisa 8,779 36.36% 15,084 62.48% 281 1.16% -6,305 -26.11% 24,144
Lunenburg 2,253 38.28% 3,594 61.07% 38 0.65% -1,341 -22.79% 5,885
Lynchburg 16,664 45.01% 19,574 52.87% 785 2.12% -2,910 -7.86% 37,023
Madison 2,700 31.84% 5,671 66.88% 109 1.29% -2,971 -35.04% 8,480
Manassas 9,048 56.20% 6,670 41.43% 382 2.37% 2,378 14.77% 16,100
Manassas Park 3,506 58.46% 2,314 38.59% 177 2.95% 1,192 19.88% 5,997
Martinsville 3,435 60.55% 2,155 37.99% 83 1.46% 1,280 22.56% 5,673
Mathews 1,774 29.84% 4,106 69.07% 65 1.09% -2,332 -39.23% 5,945
Mecklenburg 6,404 39.28% 9,791 60.05% 109 0.67% -3,387 -20.77% 16,304
Middlesex 2,473 35.80% 4,357 63.08% 77 1.11% -1,884 -27.28% 6,907
Montgomery 23,811 50.60% 22,179 47.14% 1,063 2.26% 1,632 3.47% 47,053
Nelson 4,298 45.58% 5,004 53.06% 128 1.36% -706 -7.49% 9,430
New Kent 5,641 33.56% 10,974 65.29% 192 1.14% -5,333 -31.73% 16,807
Newport News 48,169 63.46% 26,385 34.76% 1,355 1.79% 21,784 28.70% 75,909
Norfolk 59,941 69.69% 24,377 28.34% 1,691 1.97% 35,564 41.35% 86,009
Northampton 3,603 52.55% 3,183 46.43% 70 1.02% 420 6.13% 6,856
Northumberland 3,202 38.90% 4,938 59.99% 92 1.12% -1,736 -21.09% 8,232
Norton 458 27.86% 1,174 71.41% 12 0.73% -716 -43.55% 1,644
Nottoway 2,636 38.38% 4,168 60.68% 65 0.95% -1,532 -22.30% 6,869
Orange 8,274 37.02% 13,764 61.58% 315 1.41% -5,490 -24.56% 22,353
Page 2,976 22.46% 10,123 76.39% 152 1.15% -7,147 -53.94% 13,251
Patrick 1,886 19.41% 7,746 79.70% 87 0.90% -5,860 -60.29% 9,719
Petersburg 11,219 85.52% 1,702 12.97% 198 1.51% 9,517 72.54% 13,119
Pittsylvania 9,599 28.10% 24,310 71.17% 247 0.72% -14,711 -43.07% 34,156
Poquoson 2,119 26.27% 5,800 71.92% 146 1.81% -3,681 -45.64% 8,065
Portsmouth 28,306 68.45% 12,370 29.91% 677 1.64% 15,936 38.54% 41,353
Powhatan 5,734 27.42% 14,918 71.33% 262 1.25% -9,184 -43.91% 20,914
Prince Edward 4,539 47.98% 4,782 50.55% 139 1.47% -243 -2.57% 9,460
Prince George 6,842 38.80% 10,590 60.06% 201 1.14% -3,748 -21.26% 17,633
Prince William 131,128 57.33% 90,203 39.44% 7,381 3.23% 40,925 17.89% 228,712
Pulaski 4,830 27.22% 12,732 71.75% 182 1.03% -7,902 -44.53% 17,744
Radford 3,231 49.08% 3,197 48.56% 155 2.35% 34 0.52% 6,583
Rappahannock 2,041 40.30% 2,943 58.10% 81 1.60% -902 -17.81% 5,065
Richmond City 88,710 81.59% 17,041 15.67% 2,980 2.74% 71,669 65.91% 108,731
Richmond County 1,439 34.52% 2,697 64.71% 32 0.77% -1,258 -30.18% 4,168
Roanoke City 25,737 60.82% 15,787 37.31% 790 1.87% 9,950 23.51% 42,314
Roanoke County 21,693 38.03% 34,453 60.39% 902 1.58% -12,760 -22.37% 57,048
Rockbridge 4,160 32.43% 8,468 66.01% 200 1.56% -4,308 -33.58% 12,828
Rockingham 13,418 29.04% 32,045 69.36% 737 1.60% -18,627 -40.32% 46,200
Russell 2,172 16.03% 11,303 83.44% 72 0.53% -9,131 -67.40% 13,547
Salem 5,237 39.65% 7,769 58.82% 201 1.52% -2,532 -19.17% 13,207
Scott 1,607 14.51% 9,392 84.79% 78 0.70% -7,785 -70.28% 11,077
Shenandoah 6,914 28.23% 17,215 70.30% 360 1.47% -10,301 -42.06% 24,489
Smyth 2,805 19.39% 11,521 79.63% 142 0.98% -8,716 -60.24% 14,468
Southampton 3,626 36.79% 6,133 62.23% 97 0.98% -2,507 -25.44% 9,856
Spotsylvania 35,747 44.96% 42,531 53.49% 1,236 1.55% -6,784 -8.53% 79,514
Stafford 41,252 49.38% 40,590 48.59% 1,697 2.03% 662 0.79% 83,539
Staunton 7,592 55.72% 5,778 42.40% 256 1.88% 1,814 13.31% 13,626
Suffolk 30,597 57.14% 22,112 41.30% 836 1.56% 8,485 15.85% 53,545
Surry 2,176 49.00% 2,205 49.65% 60 1.35% -29 -0.65% 4,441
Sussex 2,539 51.82% 2,322 47.39% 39 0.80% 217 4.43% 4,900
Tazewell 3,030 15.22% 16,711 83.95% 165 0.83% -13,681 -68.73% 19,906
Virginia Beach 115,412 50.45% 109,375 47.81% 3,984 1.74% 6,037 2.64% 228,771
Warren 6,910 30.47% 15,400 67.90% 369 1.63% -8,490 -37.44% 22,679
Washington 6,772 22.94% 22,455 76.07% 291 0.99% -15,683 -53.13% 29,518
Waynesboro 5,240 46.29% 5,882 51.97% 197 1.74% -642 -5.67% 11,319
Westmoreland 4,491 42.34% 6,003 56.59% 113 1.07% -1,512 -14.25% 10,607
Williamsburg 5,613 71.10% 2,119 26.84% 162 2.05% 3,494 44.26% 7,894
Winchester 6,407 53.87% 5,252 44.16% 235 1.98% 1,155 9.71% 11,894
Wise 3,036 18.06% 13,655 81.22% 121 0.72% -10,619 -63.16% 16,812
Wythe 3,075 19.87% 12,267 79.27% 133 0.86% -9,192 -59.40% 15,475
York 18,296 46.03% 20,722 52.13% 731 1.84% -2,426 -6.10% 39,749
Totals2,333,77851.82%2,074,09746.06%95,4132.12%259,6815.76%4,503,288
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Counties and independent city that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Harris won six of 11 congressional districts.[74]

More information District, Harris ...
District Harris Trump Representative
1st 46.66% 51.58% Rob Wittman
2nd 49.06% 49.33% Jen Kiggans
3rd 66.40% 31.84% Bobby Scott
4th 65.41% 32.82% Jennifer McClellan
5th 43.17% 55.40% Bob Good (118th Congress)
John McGuire (119th Congress)
6th 37.32% 61.09% Ben Cline
7th 50.29% 47.44% Abigail Spanberger (118th Congress)
Eugene Vindman (119th Congress)
8th 73.04% 23.76% Don Beyer
9th 27.47% 71.38% Morgan Griffith
10th 52.59% 44.28% Jennifer Wexton (118th Congress)
Suhas Subramanyam (119th Congress)
11th 65.18% 31.18% Gerry Connolly
Close

Analysis

Despite losing the state, Trump made notable gains across much of the Commonwealth, particularly in the Northern and Southside regions of Virginia.[75] In Northern Virginia, Trump made significant gains in Loudoun County, Virginia (21% Asian and 14% Hispanic), Fairfax County, Virginia (20% Asian and 17% Hispanic), and Prince William County, Virginia (10% Asian and 25% Hispanic), which have significant Asian and Hispanic populations. Northern Virginia as a whole swung 8% rightward.[76] The state also swung rightward in the concurrent 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia, as Democrat Tim Kaine won by a 9% margin, down from his 16% margin in 2018.[77]

Trump reclaimed Lynchburg City, flipped Prince Edward County, which had not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2000, and also flipped Surry County, which last supported a Republican presidential candidate in 1972. Harris, by contrast, did not flip any counties or independent cities in Virginia.[78]

Harris did improve slightly in some Greater Richmond counties, including Chesterfield County. Virginia was one of the few states in the country to have many counties shift leftward. Despite losing York County (home to Yorktown, Virginia), Harris won 46% of the vote in the county, the highest percentage since 1964.[79]

This was the first time since 2000 that Virginia voted for the popular vote loser, and the first time since 1996 that Virginia backed the loser of both the electoral vote and the overall popular vote. Virginia voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation (5.78%+1.48%=7.26%), voting for a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote for the first time since 1924.

Harris won the state by 5.78%, worse than Biden's 10.11% margin but slightly improved from Hillary Clinton's 5.32% margin in 2016. Tim Kaine was the 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee, likely providing a home state advantage to Clinton in 2016.

Nevertheless, Trump became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying the city of Virginia Beach since it became an independent city in 1952 as well as the first to do so without carrying Chesterfield or Stafford Counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and the first to do so without carrying James City County or the city of Chesapeake since Richard Nixon in 1968. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the first Republican to do so since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900.

This was also the third consecutive election in which Virginia voted Democratic while Florida voted Republican, which had previously not occurred since 1876. Trump won Florida in 2024 by over 13 percentage points, with Florida having backed Trump even when Trump lost both the electoral vote and popular vote in 2020. While Florida shifted dramatically rightward during the Trump era, Virginia shifted dramatically leftward.

Although Harris lost both swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, two other Southern states, both also trended leftward. Both swung by less than 3%, compared to the national swing of about 6%. Harris outperformed Clinton’s 2016 margins in both Southern swing states.[80] Harris won in Virginia, as over 18% of adults in Virginia have graduate degrees, per List of U.S. states and territories by educational attainment. By comparison, just 13-14% of adults in North Carolina and Georgia have graduate degrees.[81]

See also

Notes

  1. Despite both Virginia and Florida backing Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama twice, the two have diverged in the Trump era. For the first time since 1876, Virginia has always voted Democratic and Florida has always voted Republican in the Trump era.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. "Other" with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 3%
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. "Other candidate" with 3%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  9. "Other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  10. "Would not vote" with 1%
  11. "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
  12. "Another candidate" with 5%
  13. "Another candidate" with 4%
  14. "Other" with 1%
  15. "Someone else" with 1.6%
  16. Claudia De La Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  17. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  18. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Refused" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  20. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  21. "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  22. "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. "Other candidate" with 2%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  24. "Other candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  25. "Another candidate" with 3%
  26. "Another candidate" with 8%
  27. "Another candidate" with 6%
  28. "Undecided" with 6%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Refused" with 2%
  29. "Another candidate" with 2%
  30. "Another candidate" with 1%
  31. Joe Manchin with 7%
  32. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  1. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  2. Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  3. Poll sponsored by WAVY-TV, WRIC-TV, WFXR-TV, & WDCW-TV
  4. Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
  5. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  6. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  7. Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
  8. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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