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2026 Alberta independence referendum

Canadian provincial referendum From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The independence question of the 2026 Alberta referendum will be one of 10 questions for the 2026 Alberta referendums, which will take place on October 19, 2026. The question is a choice of two options: whether to remain in Canada or for the province of Alberta to take steps toward holding a binding[a] referendum on separating from Canada.[1]

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2026 Alberta independence referendum
Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?
Websitehttps://www.elections.ab.ca/current-election-information/
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Background

Since the Liberal Party's fourth consecutive win in the 2025 Canadian federal election, premier of Alberta Danielle Smith has been under pressure to call a referendum on separation.[2] However legal restraints put a brake on quick action. The province's Citizen Initiative Act does enable a group of citizens to force the government to hold a referendum. Knowing the situation and in order to preempt the discussion, Thomas Lukaszuk and others in favour of Alberta remaining in Canada collected signatures to force a referendum on Alberta remaining in Canada. The presentation of the question on the petition was nuanced—one size of lettering was used for one part: "we as represented by the signatory and applicant below propose a referendum on the following question:"; then bolder lettering was used for this part: "Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?"[3]

Petition controversy

After Thomas Lukaszuk's petition drive had begun, on May 25, 2025 the Smith government passed an amendment to the Citizen Initiative Act, which greatly lowered the threshold required for a petition to trigger a referendum.

Stay Free Alberta collected signatures on a petition in support of an independence referendum. They claimed the petition had received 300,000 signatures.[2] However, some questioned the credibility of this petition, once it was revealed that separatist groups had gained access to the Elections Alberta List of Electors, after the personal information of millions of Albertans appeared in an online database operated by the Centurion Project, another separatist group.[4][5] The leak has led to allegations that the leaked voter data may have been used for the purposes of forging petition signatures.[6] (As well, news sources reported that some signatures on the referendum had been collected from people outside Alberta.)[7]

On May 13, 2026, the Court of King's Bench of Alberta struck down the petition after it was argued that the separatist groups had not properly consulted with Indigenous peoples in Alberta, which was considered to be a constitutional requirement given the implications that separation would have on treaty rights.[8] Danielle Smith criticized the ruling as being undemocratic, and claimed that a Justin Trudeau appointed judge was undermining the democratic will of Albertans. She also claimed that her government was prepared to utilize the notwithstanding clause to prevent the courts from being able to intervene, despite said clause not actually applying to the sections of the constitution that the court had ruled was violated.[9] After another judge ruled that Elections Alberta should proceed with signature verification for the separatist petition, in case an appeal of the May 13 ruling was successful, the petition was verified as having received almost 223,000 signatures.[10]

The petition in support of Alberta remaining in Canada organized by Thomas Lukaszuk was verified by Elections Alberta to have received over 400,000 signatures.[11][12]

Addition of the question

On May 21, 2026, Smith announced in a televised address that a remain/separate question would be added to the nine questions listed for the October vote.[13] It incorporated the Thomas Lukaszuk's "Alberta Forever Canada" question, and in order to circumvent the court ruling against a vote on separation, the new referendum question also set out that if the leave vote won, it would not compel the government to seek separation from Canada, but instead would open the door to a subsequent referendum on remaining in Canada or independence. Smith argued that this question in the form of an A or B choice respected the wishes of both the separatist groups and the pro-Canada campaigns, although those on both sides of the debate criticized it.

The final question reads (in the style of a "pick one" choice): Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?

Alleged foreign interference

On October 3, 2026, a Globe and Mail investigation found that political operatives tied to the Republican Party were assisting the campaign for Alberta to secede. The investigation also found that when Alberta separatist leaders went to Washington, D.C., to meet with representatives of the United States Department of State, they were offered access to fresh water and royalties on crude oil.[14] A few days later, Mitch Sylvestre, chief executive officer of the Alberta Prosperity Project, told the Mail that the office of Foreign Influence Transparency Commissioner Anton Boegman contacted him and his group.[15] The premier of British Columbia, David Eby, called the invitation of foreign interference by the separatist movement "treason" and other Canadian lawmakers called for updating Canadian laws on treason and foreign election interference.[16][17]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

From May 2026 to the scheduled referendum date.

The following table shows responses to the question posed in the 2026 referendum. Polling on whether Alberta should separate from Canada, rather than on whether a future referendum on separation should be held, can be found in the article on Alberta separatism.

More information Date(s) conducted, Remain in Canada ...
Date(s) conducted Remain in Canada Hold Separation Referendum Undecided Lead (pp) Sample Pollster Polling type Margin of error Notes
October 2–4, 2026 70%[b] 22%[c] 7%[d] 48 1,001 Leger[18] Online ±3.1%
September 18–22, 2026 70% 20% 10% 50 600 Ipsos[19] Online ±4.9%
September 8–21, 2026 72% 23% 4% 49 1,200 Janet Brown[20] Telephone/Online ±2.8%
September 4–7, 2026 64% 24% 9% 40 1,000 Abacus Data[21] Online ±3.1%
August 24–26, 2026 74% 22% 4% 52 750 Research Co.[22] Online ±3.6%
August 21–23, 2026 65%[e] 23%[f] 10%[g] 42 1,001 Leger[23] Online ±3.1%
August 10–13, 2026 61%[h] 33%[i] 5% 28 1,017 Angus Reid[24] Online ±3%
June 19–July 2, 2026 70% 23% 7% 46 1,007 Pollara[25] Online ±3.1%
June 7–12, 2026 65% 21% 9% 44 777 Spark[26] Online N/A Won't Vote 5%
May 29–June 1, 2026 68%[j] 24%[k] 8%[l] 44 1,014 Leger[27] Online ±3.1%
May 28–June 1, 2026 72% 19% 10% 53 600 Ipsos[28] Online ±4.9%
May 22–24, 2026 60%[m] 35%[n] 5% 25 800 Angus Reid[29] Online ±3%
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See also

Notes

  1. Although this potential second referendum would be binding in the sense that it would compel the Government of Alberta to seek independence from Canada, it would not immediately bring about an actual recognition of independence, as the Constitution of Canada does not have any provision allowing for a province to unilaterally separate from Canada. This means the Government of Alberta would only be able to seek a constitutional amendment to make unilateral separation legal, following the process outlined in the Clarity Act.
  2. Alberta New Democratic Party 98%, United Conservative Party 43%
  3. Alberta New Democratic Party 1%, United Conservative Party 48%
  4. United Conservative Party 8%
  5. Alberta New Democratic Party 93%, United Conservative Party 42%
  6. Alberta New Democratic Party 4%, United Conservative Party 45%
  7. Alberta New Democratic Party 2%, United Conservative Party 12%
  8. Alberta New Democratic Party 92%, United Conservative Party 35%
  9. Alberta New Democratic Party 6%, United Conservative Party 60%
  10. Alberta New Democratic Party 94%, United Conservative Party 44%
  11. Alberta New Democratic Party 5%, United Conservative Party 48%
  12. Alberta New Democratic Party 1%, United Conservative Party 8%
  13. Alberta New Democratic Party 90%, United Conservative Party 30%
  14. Alberta New Democratic Party 7%, United Conservative Party 64%

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