2026 Atlantic hurricane season
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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the current Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2026, and will end on November 30, 2026. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on June 17.
(1-minute sustained)
| 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | |
|---|---|
Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | June 17, 2026 |
| Last system dissipated | Season ongoing |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Arthur |
| • Maximum winds | 45 mph (75 km/h) (1-minute sustained) |
| • Lowest pressure | 999 mbar (hPa; 29.5 inHg) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total depressions | 1 |
| Total storms | 1 |
| Hurricanes | 0 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) | 0 |
| ACE | 0.4 |
| Total fatalities | 4 total |
| Total damage | > $100 million (2026 USD) |
| Related articles | |
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
| Record low activity | 1 | 0† | 0† | [2] | |
| TSR | December 11, 2025 | 14 | 7 | 3 | [3] |
| UA | April 7, 2026 | 20 | 9 | 4 | [4] |
| CSU | April 9, 2026 | 13 | 6 | 2 | [5] |
| TSR | April 9, 2026 | 12 | 5 | 1 | [6] |
| TWC | April 16, 2026 | 12 | 6 | 2 | [7] |
| UPenn | April 21, 2026 | 7–13 | N/A | N/A | [8] |
| NCSU | April 22, 2026 | 12–15 | 6–9 | 2–3 | [9] |
| SMN | April 22, 2026 | 11–15 | 4–7 | 1–2 | [10] |
| INSMET | May 5, 2026 | 11 | 5 | 2 | [11] |
| NOAA | May 21, 2026 | 8–14 | 3–6 | 1–3 | [12] |
| UKMO* | May 28, 2026 | 9 | 5 | 2 | [13] |
| CSU | June 10, 2026 | 11 | 5 | 2 | [14] |
| UA | June 14, 2026 | 13 | 5 | 3 | [15] |
| Actual activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the amount of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season.
According to NOAA and CSU, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as a median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 71.04–123.14 units.[16] Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 11, 2025, TSR released their first forecast for the season, expecting a near-normal season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes,[nb 1] and an ACE index of 125 units, close to the thirty-year average. They noted historically low certainty in this forecast, with the main factors being potentially moderate El Niño conditions arising in mid- to late-summer 2026, along with a reasonable certainty of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the season.[3]
On April 7, 2026, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for an active season featuring 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 155 units.[4] Noted in their forecast were similarities to the 2023 season, namely the possibility of exceptionally strong El Niño conditions for the season, along with the 2026 SST outlook being only slightly lower than that of 2023.[4] Two days later, CSU and TSR published their April forecasts, both calling for a slightly below-normal season. CSU forecasted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes with an ACE index of 90 units, while TSR forecasted 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane with an ACE index of 66 units. This is due to the likelihood of robust El Niño conditions during the season, which will likely induce above-normal wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, despite some predictions calling for slightly above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.[5][6] On April 16, The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their forecast, also calling for a below-average season with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes due to the predicted El Niño.[7] On April 21, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of 7–13 systems with a best estimate of 10 systems.[8] On April 22, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released their seasonal forecast, calling for an average season of 12–15 named storms, 6–9 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes while also forecasting near-average activity in the Gulf of Mexico and below-average activity in the Caribbean Sea.[9] Also on April 22, Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) issued their forecast for the season, predicting it to be below-to-near-average, with 11–15 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes.[10]
On May 5, the Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba (INSMET) issued a forecast calling for 11 tropical cyclones, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes with one tropical cyclone occurring in the Gulf of Mexico, two in the Caribbean, and eight in the Atlantic.[11] On May 21, forecasters at NOAA's National Weather Service predicted a below-normal hurricane season with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, factoring in expected development of an El Niño event, which would reduce the number of tropical systems, along with slightly above-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker-than-average trade winds, which would favor development.[12] On May 28, the Met Office released their prediction of 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (with ranges of 6–12, 3–7, and 1–3, respectively) as well as an ACE index of 72 units.[13]
Mid-season forecasts
On June 10, CSU reduced its predicted forecast to 11 named storms, five hurricanes and only two major hurricanes with a total ACE of 70, citing the high chance of a moderate-to-strong El Niño developing by September, as well as cooler sea surface temperatures anomalies observed during the month of May.[14] On June 14, UA reduced its predicted hurricane activities in each category compared to its April prediction, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and a total ACE of 106, primarily because the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures had not increased as much as expected from March to May.[15]
Seasonal summary
This season's ACE index, as of June 18, is approximately 0.4 units, as officially calculated by the NHC.[18] This number represents the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000.
On June 17, Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the Texan coast, bringing flooding to the Gulf Coast of the United States and Mexico.[19]
Systems
Tropical Storm Arthur
On June 10, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring the Bay of Campeche for the development of a low-pressure area,[20] partially associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina from the Eastern Pacific basin.[21] On June 14, the low-pressure area moved inland over eastern Mexico,[22] although over the next day it would turn sharply to the east, back towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.[citation needed] Conditions in the area were assessed as marginally favorable for development and, on June 16, the NHC started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 15:00 UTC.[23] The following day at 15:00 UTC, the system acquired gale-force winds, as well as sustainable, albeit lopsided convection, and was named Tropical Storm Arthur by the NHC as it moved offshore from the Texas coast.[24] A poorly-organized system, Arthur reached peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 40 kt (45 mph) as it underwent a center relocation, making landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal tropical storm before degenerating into a remnant low.[25]
Aon estimated damages to be greater than US$100 million.[26] Four fatalities have been attributed to Arthur.[27][28][29][30]
Storm names
The following list of names will be used for storms that form in the Atlantic basin during 2026. This was the same list used in the 2020 season with the exception of Leah, which replaced Laura.[31]
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Season effects
The following is a table which will include all of the storms that form in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It will include their duration, names, intensities, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures will be in 2026 USD.
| Saffir–Simpson scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
| Storm name |
Dates active | Storm category at peak intensity |
Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) |
Min. press. (mbar) |
Areas affected | Damage (US$) |
Deaths | Ref(s). | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur | June 17–18 | Tropical storm | 45 (75) | 999 | Western Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Coast of the United States | >$100 million | 4 | [26] | ||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||||
| 1 systems | June 17 – ongoing | 45 (75) | 999 | >$100 million | 4 | |||||
See also
- Weather of 2026
- Tropical cyclones in 2026
- 2026 Pacific hurricane season
- 2026 Pacific typhoon season
- 2026 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2025–26, 2026–27
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2025–26
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2025–26
Notes
- Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[17]
