2026 Bahia general election

Political history of the state

Bahia's politics have been historically shaped by oligarchy. Under the Old Republic, the state was governed by factions tied to the sugar and cocoa export interests of the Recôncavo and southern coast.^[1] After 1945 the Magalhães family — first Juracy, then Antônio Carlos — emerged as the central political force in the state; ACM governed Bahia three times (1971–1975, 1979–1983, 1991–1994), the first two terms under the indirect rules of the military regime, and served as a federal senator until his death in 2007.^[2]

Political scientists describe the resulting subnational machine as carlismo: a "conservative modernization" project combining developmentalist state planning (notably the Camaçari petrochemical complex), control of the PFL state organisation, clientelist mediation with the interior, and direct ownership of the state's principal media outlets, including A Tarde and the regional Rede Bahia television affiliate.^[3][4] Political scientists have identified carlismo as the paradigmatic case of the Brazilian "governor-baron" who exercised quasi-autonomous regional power during the post-1985 redemocratisation.^[5]

The dominant electoral cleavage historically pitted the carlista coalition, drawing on the interior, traditional commercial elites, and the baianidade cultural imaginary cultivated through state institutions, against an urban opposition rooted in Salvador's middle class, the federal university, and the labour and Black movements.^[6] Carlismo declined after Magalhães's 2001 Senate resignation and 2007 death, and was electorally displaced when Jaques Wagner defeated the carlista nominee Paulo Souto in 2006; the PT has retained the governorship in every cycle since.

Result and aftermath

Jerônimo Rodrigues defeated ACM Neto in the runoff on 30 October 2022 by 52.79% to 47.21%, becoming the first self-declared indigenous governor in Brazilian history.^[7] The victory extended the PT's control of the state to a fifth consecutive term, following Jaques Wagner (2007–2015) and Rui Costa (2015–2023).^[8] Rodrigues took office on 1 January 2023 with Geraldo Júnior (MDB) as vice-governor; on the same day Rui Costa departed for Brasília to assume the Civil House (chief of staff) in the third Lula administration, retaining substantial influence over Bahian politics.

ACM Neto, defeated for the first time in his political career, largely withdrew from public life for nearly four years, a period he himself later described as one of personal "mourning".^[9] The prolonged silence cost him support among Bahian mayors: by early 2026, more than fifty municipal executives who had backed him in 2022 had migrated to Rodrigues, many citing the absence of post-election dialogue. Within his party, however, ACM Neto consolidated influence, becoming national vice-president of União Brasil in 2022.^[10]

The 2024 municipal elections produced a divided verdict. In Salvador, incumbent mayor Bruno Reis (União) — ACM Neto's chosen successor — was re-elected in the first round with 78.67% of the vote, defeating vice-governor Geraldo Júnior (MDB), who had been backed by Rodrigues and Lula.^[11] União Brasil also retained the state's two other largest electoral colleges, Feira de Santana and Vitória da Conquista, although its statewide tally of 39 mayors left it only fifth in the ranking of parties by prefeituras won.^[12] Across the interior the picture inverted: parties allied to Rodrigues — led by the PSD (115 mayors), Avante (60), and the PT (49) — together took 309 of the state's 417 municipalities, and the PT additionally captured the industrial city of Camaçari in a runoff, a symbolically significant result given its role as the seat of the state's petrochemical complex and the new BYD plant.^[12][13]

From 2025 onward, ACM Neto led the wing of União Brasil pushing for the party to abandon Lula's coalition, conditioning the rupture on the formalisation of the União Brasil–Progressistas federation in mid-2025.^[14] In March 2026 he formally aligned with Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy, a public realignment of the post-carlista machine with the bolsonarista right that contrasted sharply with the strategic ambiguity he had maintained during the 2022 runoff.^[15]

The outgoing administration

Rodrigues's term has been organised around large infrastructure projects — the Salvador–Itaparica bridge, Salvador's VLT light-rail, and the expansion of full-time public schools — alongside the attraction of BYD's electric-vehicle plant to Camaçari. Public security has been his principal weak point, with Bahia leading Brazil in police-killing rates and drawing criticism from Amnesty International and the OAB.^[16] Genial/Quaest state polling has shown his approval rating stable between 56% and 61% through 2024–2026, with positive marks on education and infrastructure but negative ones on crime.^[17][18]

Electoral geography

Bahia's electorate is highly territorialised. The state's has 27 traditional Territories of Identity. In the 2022 runoff, Jerônimo Rodrigues carried 22 of the 27 territories, while ACM Neto prevailed in only five — Metropolitano de Salvador, Portal do Sertão, Litoral Sul, Costa do Descobrimento, and Extremo Sul.^[19]

The opposition's only solid territorial base is metropolitan Salvador, which concentrates roughly a quarter of the state electorate and where the political grouping built around ACM Neto's family has won four consecutive municipal elections in the capital. In 2022, ACM Neto's vote advantage in the metropolitan territory alone exceeded 485,000 ballots, more than offsetting his losses in any single interior territory.

The PT's coalition, by contrast, draws on the interior sertão and semi-arid north, including the territories of Irecê, Piemonte da Diamantina, and Bacia do Jacuípe, where federal cash-transfer programmes have generated durable partisan loyalties. In the 2022 presidential first round, Lula carried 415 of Bahia's 417 municipalities; the two exceptions were Buerarema in the Baixo Sul and Luís Eduardo Magalhães in the agribusiness frontier of western Bahia, the latter named after ACM Neto's uncle and one of only fifteen Northeastern municipalities to back Jair Bolsonaro.^[20][21] Western Bahia — the soy, cotton, and maize belt around Barreiras and Luís Eduardo Magalhães — has become the state's most reliably right-leaning region in federal contests, even where centre-right gubernatorial candidates underperform.

Governor

Incumbent governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) was elected in 2022 in the second round with 52.79% of the vote, defeating former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of the Brazil Union (União), who received 47.21%.^[28]

Rodrigues, a university professor and agricultural engineer, previously served as the State Secretary of Rural Development and Education. He was supported by a forceful coalition led by outgoing governor (and current Chief of Staff) Rui Costa, extending the PT's governance of the state which began in 2007. His alliance with the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) was solidified by his selection of vice governor candidate Geraldo Júnior, the former President of the Salvador City Council who broke with the opposition to join the government ticket.^[29]

Senator

Senators in Brazil serve an 8-year term, meaning the incumbents were elected on tickets in 2018.

Jaques Wagner, a founding member of the PT and former Governor of Bahia (2007–2015), was elected to the Senate in 2018 with over 4 million votes. A senior figure in national politics, he has served as Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff under previous PT administrations and remains a key articulator for the Lula government.^[30]

Angelo Coronel, a businessman and former President of the Legislative Assembly of Bahia (ALBA), was elected as a member of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in 2018. He secured the second senate seat as part of the coalition led by then-Governor Rui Costa, defeating incumbent legislators from the opposition. He is eligible to run for a second term.^[30]

Expressed interest

• Kleber Rosa, social scientist and civil police investigator, current political leader, candidate for Governor of Bahia in 2022, and candidate for Mayor of Salvador in 2024.^[40]

Speculated by the media

• Rui Costa, economist, current Chief of Staff of the Presidency (since 2023), former Governor of Bahia (2015–2022), former State Secretary of the Civil House (2012–2014), and former Federal Deputy (2011–2014).^[41]
• Bruno Soares Reis, lawyer, current Mayor of Salvador (since 2021), former State Deputy (2011–2016), and former Vice-Mayor of Salvador (2017–2020).^[42]

Declined or withdrew