2026 California Proposition 40
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Proposition 40, also known as the California billionaire tax or California wealth tax, is a combined initiated constitutional amendment and state statute appearing on the November 3, 2026, ballot in the state of California.
November 3, 2026
| |
One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Health Care Programs Initiative |
If approved by voters, the state's billionaires would pay a one-time 5 percent tax on their accumulated wealth. Revenue from the tax would primarily fund state healthcare programs, with a smaller portion going toward food assistance and public education. Proposition 40 was sponsored by the labor union SEIU United Healthcare Workers West.
Background
Proposition 40 was drafted by tax law professors Brian Galle of UC Berkeley, David Gamage of the University of Missouri, Darien Shanske of UC Davis, and economist Emmanuel Saez of UC Berkeley.[1][2] Labor union SEIU United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) filed the initiative. In December 2025, state attorney general Rob Bonta issued the official title and summary.[3][4]
On April 26, 2026, SEIU-UHW announced that they had collected 1.6 million signatures in support of the tax, nearly double the 874,641 required to qualify for the November ballot.[5][6] On June 17, the California secretary of state announced that the wealth tax had qualified for the ballot with 980,438 valid signatures.[7][8]
A day later, SEIU-UHW sent a letter to California governor Gavin Newsom—an opponent of the initiative—offering to withdraw the 5% wealth tax proposal if Newsom supported a smaller 2% levy on billionaires that would be passed by the state legislature;[9][10][11] Newsom quickly rejected the amended proposal.[12] Negotiations stalled before the June 25 withdrawal deadline, and the initiative was certified for the November ballot.[13][14]
Impact
The initiative would impose the Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the California residents worth over $1 billion.[15] 90% of revenue from the tax would go towards state-funded healthcare programs,[16] including Medi-Cal, while the rest would provide funding for food assistance and public education.[15]
The eligibility cut-off outlined in the initiative was January 1, 2026, meaning that if the initiative is passed by voters, billionaires who continued to hold residence in the state of California after that date will be subject to the 5% tax.[15] Six of the state's estimated 214 billionaires were reported to have left California before or around the deadline, including PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, and Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin.[15][17][18] They may be subject to a residency audit to determine whether they have sufficiently severed ties with the state.[19]
Revenue
Analysis by the California Legislative Analyst's Office found the wealth tax was likely to temporarily increase revenue by up to tens of billions of dollars total, collected over several years.[20][21] The analysis also found the tax would possibly decrease income tax revenue by less than $1 billion annually from billionaires leaving California.[20][22]
SEIU-UHW, the labor union behind the initiative, estimated that the tax would generate $100 billion,[23] though revenue from the billionaires who reportedly left the state prior to the deadline accounts for an estimated $29 billion of that sum, according to Fortune.[24][19] Academic Kent Smetters cast doubt on SEIU-UHW's estimate, telling the Los Angeles Times that the union is "not accounting for the different ways that people can move or reclassify wealth".[25] UC Berkeley economics professor Enrico Moretti warned that the tax "has the potential to completely destroy California's economy", and described the revenue estimate as "way overly optimistic."[2]
The conservative-leaning Hoover Institution estimated that "permanent loss of income taxes from the departing residents indicates a high likelihood that net effect of the Billionaire Tax Act will be negative" by almost $25 billion.[26] This conclusion was criticized by one of the bill's authors, David Gamage, who contended that the group's analysis "suggests that the billionaire tax might raise more revenue than our projections even say".[27]
In a guest essay for The New York Times, Gabriel Zucman and initiative co-author Saez responded to concerns about billionaires fleeing the state, claiming that because billionaires are able to avoid income tax on most earnings, "even if all of them left the state, it would take 25 years for the loss of their tax payments... to surpass the amount the state would raise" if the initiative passes.[28] In a working paper, Saez and Zucman, alongside co-author Jasper Boll of the Paris School of Economics, estimated that California billionaires annually pay state income tax equal to about 0.2 percent of their total wealth, making up 2.4 percent of California's total income tax revenue.[29]
Economist Teresa Ghilarducci of the Economic Policy Institute, a pro-union think tank, considered an exodus of billionaires due to the tax unlikely, pointing to a 2022 Massachusetts 4% surtax on income above $1 million that exceeded projected revenue.[30] Nuveen, an asset management company, also concluded billionaire outmigration was unlikely and that the tax posed minimal risk to California's credit profile and municipal bonds.[31]
Effective tax rate
The Tax Foundation, a center-right think tank, argued that it was possible for the effective wealth tax rate to far exceed 5% for some taxpayers due to provisions related to dual-class share structures,[32] but acknowledged that this would be unlikely in cases where valuations are clearly incorrect.[33][34] The initiative's drafters published a report arguing that this concern was based on a misreading of the text.[33][35]
Real estate
Forbes cited the billionaire tax initiative as the reason for a real estate boom on Nevada's side of Lake Tahoe, noting that a number of lakefront homes were purchased by California billionaires after the proposal was announced.[36] Bill Dietz, a Lake Tahoe realtor, told the magazine that a "clear acceleration of ultra-high-net-worth buyers moving from California to Nevada" took place, driven by "tax strategy".[36]
In late 2025, Oracle founder Larry Ellison sold his San Francisco mansion for $45 million, choosing to relocate to Nevada; venture capitalist Steve Jurvetson later did the same.[37] In June 2026, former U.S. ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman and her husband, neurosurgeon Griffith R. Harsh, sold a number of properties in California, including a $17.9 million fly fishing ranch, purportedly over fears that the billionaire tax would be approved by voters.[37]
Campaign
Support
U.S. senator Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, has endorsed the billionaire tax. At a February 2026 Los Angeles rally in support of the tax, Sanders described billionaires as "oligarchs of the 18th century...[who] believe they have the divine right to rule".[38] Many prominent supporters have asserted that the billionaire tax is a necessary response to the Trump administration's restrictions and cuts to Medicaid,[39] including former U.S. secretary of labor Robert Reich, who described the tax as a "practical way to keep the healthcare system functioning".[39]
Emmanuel Saez, a co-author of the initiative, said that the tax would "preserve [healthcare and education] programs that are crucial for California's economy".[2]
The state branch of the Democratic Socialists of America endorsed the billionaire tax, stating that "without this funding, thousands of jobs will be lost, millions of Californians could lose coverage altogether, and care facilities across the state could be forced to close".[40][41]
U.S. representative Ro Khanna, a progressive Democrat who represents much of the Silicon Valley, has expressed strong support for the tax.[42] Some venture capitalists from Khanna's district responded by backing his unsuccessful primary challenger, Ethan Agarwal.[43] Two 2026 Democratic gubernatorial candidates, billionaire businessman Tom Steyer and state superintendent of public instruction Tony Thurmond, endorsed the tax.[42][44]
Current Affairs editor Alex Scopic argued in favor of the tax, considering it an important method of countering the "buy, borrow, die" tax avoidance strategy by billionaires.[34]
In August 2026, the California Democratic Party endorsed Proposition 40.[45][46] After a failed initial endorsement vote and an unsuccessful alternative motion to adopt a neutral position on the measure, a second endorsement vote yielded 61.7 percent in favor, narrowly exceeding the 60 percent threshold for endorsement.[47]
In September 2026, a group of six progressive Nobel laureates of economics published a letter in support of the tax, arguing that it would help address growing inequality in California and loopholes that have allowed billionaires to avoid taxes on capital gains.[48][49][50] The economists wrote that if California passed Proposition 40, it would "kickstart a movement" to tax ultra-high-net-worth individuals elsewhere.[49]
SEIU-UHW extortion and abuse allegations
In February 2026, SEIU United Service Workers West (SEIU-USWW) president David Huerta and three other labor leaders filed a formal complaint against SEIU-UHW president Dave Regan, accusing him of extorting them by suggesting that he would "report unspecified governance concerns to the U.S. Department of Labor ... if [they] did not support the billionaire tax".[51][52] An investigation initiated by the SEIU's national branch substantiated these claims as well as allegations from SEIU California executive director Tia Orr that Regan had threatened her by telling her to "endorse this measure ... or I'm coming for you".[52][53]
A September 2026 report from SEIU California found that Regan had "engaged in a pattern of subjecting former and current SEIU California female directors to intimidating and threatening physical behavior" and substantiated former union leader Courtni Pugh's allegations that Regan physically assaulted her.[52] Regan denied this and claimed that because Pugh worked as a political consultant against the tax, she had a reason to lie.[52] A separate investigation found that Regan had intimidated and bullied SEIU California's government relations director, Jessica Bartholow, by standing "uncomfortably close" to her as "tensions flared over the billionaire tax" before "scream[ing] an expletive at her".[52]
Regan dismissed the allegations as political retaliation over his support for the billionaire tax; an independent investigation found that his claims were unsubstantiated.[51] On September 11, 2026, the California Nurses Association, who support Proposition 40, published a statement urging Regan to resign over "inappropriate, aggressive behavior and threats targeting other labor staff to support the Prop. 40 billionaire tax initiative."[54]
Opposition
In response to the initiative, activists staged a "pro-billionaire" protest march in San Francisco on February 7, 2026.[55]
California governor Gavin Newsom has vocally opposed the tax, telling Politico that the proposal "makes no sense" and is "really damaging to the state".[56] A number of Democratic candidates who aimed to succeed Newsom in the 2026 gubernatorial election also opposed the tax, including former U.S. representative Katie Porter, former U.S. secretary of health and human services Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose mayor Matt Mahan.[57][42] Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton expressed opposition to the tax.[58]

Robertas Bakula, an associate fellow at the Ayn Rand Institute, called the tax an "immoral scam" in an opinion piece for the Los Angeles Daily News, arguing that the January 1 eligibility deadline is illegal because the United States Constitution bans retroactive laws.[59] In a February 2026 effort to curb the effects of the eligibility deadline, U.S. representative Kevin Kiley introduced a bill in Congress that would prohibit a state from levying a tax retroactively on people who no longer live in the state.[38]
In an April 2026 editorial, The Wall Street Journal criticized wording in the act that would allow the state legislature to make amendments that could widen the scope of eligibility for the tax.[60] In May 2026, The Washington Post publicly opposed the "self-destructive" tax, stating that the initiative "has already cost the state more in lost future revenue from income taxes than it would raise".[61] In September 2026, the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times urged voters to oppose Proposition 40, calling the measure "poorly drafted" and claiming that it has "insufficient guardrails to ensure the funds are spent to actually address Californians' most pressing healthcare needs".[62] In a discussion with Madeleine Brand on KCRW, former Los Angeles Times editorials editor Mariel Garza noted that the newspaper's owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong, would be subject to the tax.[63]
Building a Better California, an organization co-founded by Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt that is opposed to the billionaire tax,[64] sought to introduce three questions to the November 2026 ballot, all of which were designed to curb the effects of the billionaire tax if it passes.[65] One would've required more audits of special taxes and impose more rules on how revenue from new taxes could be spent,[66][38] another would bar new taxes from circumventing rules on education spending requirements for tax revenue,[67][65] and a third would invalidate the tax by amending the state constitution to forbid retroactive taxation.[65][68] The latter two measures—known as Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, respectively—qualified for the November ballot.[16] By August 2026, Building a Better California had raised $118 million, with Sergey Brin contributing $102 million to the organization.[69][70]
In June 2026, a number of progressive organizations[71][72] and labor unions announced their opposition to the billionaire tax.[73][74][75] In a joint statement, Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association criticized the wealth tax's ambiguity and described it as a "flawed response" to health care cuts,[73] while the California Teachers Association stated that the billionaire tax "will not provide the sustainable and long-lasting funding that our schools and communities deserve".[75] That same month, several California housing advocacy groups—including California YIMBY—opposed the tax, fearing that it would discourage investment and worsen the state's housing shortage.[76]
Other reactions
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who would have to pay roughly $8 billion if the measure passed, stated he was "perfectly fine with it" and had "not thought about it once" when asked if he was concerned about the tax. He added that he and others "chose to live in Silicon Valley, and whatever taxes they would like to apply, so be it".[77][78] The League of Women Voters of California adopted a neutral position on Proposition 40, stating that while the measure addresses "urgent needs", its one-time structure "conflicts with sound public finance principles and risks long-term revenue loss".[79]
Endorsements
Support
- Executive branch officials
- Robert Reich, former secretary of labor (1993–1997) (D)[39]
- U.S. senators
- Chris Murphy, Connecticut (2013–present) (D)[80]
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present) (I)[42]
- U.S. representatives
- Judy Chu, CA-28 (2009–present) (D)[81]
- Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present) (D)[42]
- Aisha Wahab, CA-14 (2026–present) (D)[82]
- Statewide officials
- Tony Thurmond, superintendent of public instruction of California (2019–present) (D)[44]
- State legislators
- Bob Archuleta, SD-30 (2018–present) (D)[83]
- Juan Carrillo, AD-39 (2022–present) (D)[84]
- Lorena Gonzalez, former AD-80 (2013–2022) (D)[85]
- Alex Lee, AD-24 (2020–present) (D)[86]
- Celeste Rodriguez, AD-43 (2024–present) (D)[87]
Lola Smallwood-Cuevas, SD-28 (2022–present) (D)[88] (endorsement rescinded)[88]
- Local officials
- Connie Chan, San Francisco supervisor from the 1st district (2021–present) (D)[89]
Mara Elliott, former city attorney of San Diego (2016–2024) (D)[90] (switched to oppose)[90]- Jane Kim, former San Francisco supervisor from the 6th district (2011–2019) (D)[91]
- Mai Vang, Sacramento city councilmember from the 8th district (2020–present) (D)[92]
- Individuals
- Saikat Chakrabarti, political advisor (D)[89]
- Mistah F.A.B., rapper[93]
- David Gamage, professor (initiative's co-author)[94]
- Michael Hiltzik, columnist[95]
- John O'Farrell, venture capitalist[96]
- Thomas Piketty, economist[94]
- Emmanuel Saez, professor (initiative's co-author)[97][39]
- Tom Steyer, businessman (D)[42]
- Gabriel Zucman, economist[97]
- Labor unions
- AFSCME California[98]
- American Federation of Teachers Local 1521[99]
- California Federation of Teachers[100] (switched from neutral)[100]
- California Labor Federation[101] (switched from neutral)[102]
- California Nurses Association[103]
- Committee of Interns and Residents[104]
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers Local 104[105]
- National Union of Healthcare Workers[106]
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West[107]
- Teamsters California[108]
- UNITE HERE Locals 11 and 30[109]
- United Teachers Los Angeles[110]
- Organizations
- 350 Bay Area[111]
- 50501 Los Angeles[112]
- ACLU of Southern California[113]
- Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club[114]
- California Democratic Socialists of America[115]
- California League of United Latin American Citizens[116]
- California Young Democrats[117]
- Color of Change[109]
- Courage California[118]
- Indivisible San Francisco[119]
- Our Revolution[120]
- Oxfam America[109]
- Patriotic Millionaires[121]
- Stonewall Young Democrats[122]
- Voters of Tomorrow California[123]
- Political parties
- California Communist Party USA[124]
- California Democratic Party[45]
- California Working Families Party[125]
- Green Party of California[126]
- Los Angeles County Democratic Party[99]
- Peace and Freedom Party[127]
- Newspapers and media
Oppose
- Executive branch officials
- Xavier Becerra, former secretary of health and human services (2021–2025) (D)[57]
- David R. Henderson, former member of the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–1984)[135]
- David Sacks, co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2025–present) (R)[136]
- U.S. representatives
- Kevin Kiley, CA-03 (2023–present) (I)[38][a]
- Sam Liccardo, CA-16 (2025–present) (D)[138]
- Katie Porter, former CA-47 (2019–2025) (D)[139]
- Statewide officials
- Josh Fryday, chief service officer of California (2019–present) (D)[140]
- Eleni Kounalakis, lieutenant governor of California (2019–present) (D)[44]
- Fiona Ma, treasurer of California (2019–present) (D)[140]
- Gavin Newsom, governor of California (2019–present) (D)[42]
- State legislators
- Patrick Ahrens, AD-26 (2024–present) (D)[141]
- David Alvarez, AD-80 (2022–present) (D)[110]
- Anamarie Avila Farias, AD-15 (2024–present) (D)[141]
- Josh Becker, SD-13 (2020–present) (D)[110]
- Marc Berman, AD-23 (2016–present) (D)[110]
- Catherine Blakespear, SD-38 (2022–present) (D)[90]
- Christopher Cabaldon, SD-03 (2024–present) (D)[110]
- Ian Calderon, former assembly majority leader (2016–2020) from AD-57 (2012–2020) (D)[57]
- Lisa Calderon, AD-56 (2020–present) (D)[141]
- Leticia Castillo, AD-58 (2024–present) (R)[142]
- Phillip Chen, AD-59 (2016–present) (R)[143]
- Laurie Davies, AD-74 (2020–present) (R)[144]
- Carl DeMaio, AD-75 (2024–present) (R)[145]
- Mike Gipson, AD-65 (2014–present) (D)[110]
- John Harabedian, AD-41 (2024–present) (D)[141]
- Gregg Hart, AD-37 (2022–present) (D)[110]
- Robert Hertzberg, former senate majority leader (2019–2022) from SD-18 (2014–2022) (D)[146]
- Jacqui Irwin, AD-42 (2014–present) (D)[141]
- Corey Jackson, AD-60 (2022–present) (D)[110]
- Stephanie Nguyen, AD-10 (2022–present) (D)[141]
- Blanca Pacheco, AD-64 (2022–present) (D)[141]
- Sharon Quirk-Silva, AD-65 (2012–2014) and AD-67 (2016–present) (D)[110]
- James Ramos, AD-45 (2018–present) (D)[147]
- Michelle Rodriguez, AD-53 (2024–present) (D)[141]
- Gloria Romero, former senate majority leader (2005–2008) from SD-24 (2001–2010) (R)[140][b]
- Blanca Rubio, AD-48 (2016–present) (D)[110]
- Pilar Schiavo, AD-40 (2022–present) (D)[149]
- Kelly Seyarto, SD-32 (2022–present) (R)[150]
- Catherine Stefani, AD-19 (2024–present) (D)[141]
- Henry Stern, SD-27 (2016–present) (D)[110]
- Tony Strickland, SD-19 (2008–2012) and SD-36 (2025–present) (R)[151]
- Tri Ta, AD-70 (2022–present) (R)[152]
- Tom Umberg, SD-34 (2018–present) (D)[110]
- Avelino Valencia, AD-68 (2022–present) (D)[153]
- Greg Wallis, AD-47 (2022–present) (R)[154]
- Scott Wiener, SD-11 (2016–present) (D)[155] (switched from neutral)[102]
- Local officials
- Chad Bianco, sheriff-coroner of Riverside County (2019–present) (R)[58]
- Matt Dorsey, San Francisco supervisor from the 6th district (2022–present) (D)[156]
- Mara Elliott, former city attorney of San Diego (2016–2024) (D)[90] (switched from support)[90]
- Daniel Lurie, mayor of San Francisco (2025–present) (D)[157]
- Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose (2023–present) (D)[42]
- Michael Tubbs, former mayor of Stockton (2017–2021) (D)[140]
- Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of Los Angeles (2005–2013) (D)[42]
- Individuals
- Bill Ackman, hedge fund manager[158]
- E.J. Antoni, economist[159]
- Gustavo Arellano, Los Angeles Times columnist[160]
- Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase[161]
- Bruce Bialosky, columnist[162]
- Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google[163]
- Rick Caruso, founder of Caruso (D)[23]
- Ron Conway, venture capitalist (D)[164]
- Mark Cuban, businessman (I)[158]
- Ray Dalio, investor (I)[165]
- John Doerr, investor (D)[166]
- Andy Fang, co-founder of DoorDash[94]
- Steve Forbes, chairman of Forbes (R)[167]
- Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings[168]
- Magnus Henrekson, economist[169]
- Steve Hilton, former director of strategy to the prime minister of the United Kingdom (2010–2012) (R)[58]
- Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn[170]
- Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist[171]
- Arthur Laffer, economist[172]
- Chris Larsen, business executive[173]
- Palmer Luckey, co-founder of Anduril Industries[94]
- Michael Moritz, venture capitalist[166]
- Dan Newman, political consultant[94]
- Timothy Noah, journalist[174]
- Kevin O'Leary, businessman[175]
- Larry Page, co-founder of Google[174]
- Chamath Palihapitiya, entrepreneur (R)[176]
- Joel Pollak, California Post opinion editor (R)[177]
- Jesse Powell, co-founder of Kraken[176]
- Joshua D. Rauh, economist[178]
- Carolyn Sapp Daniels, actress (R)[179]
- Douglas Schoen, political consultant and commentator[180]
- Garry Tan, venture capitalist (D)[181]
- Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir (R)[182]
- Mauricio Umansky, realtor and TV personality[183]
- George Will, writer (I)[184]
- Labor unions
- Building and Construction Trades Council of California[73]
- California Police Chiefs Association[185]
- California Professional Firefighters[186]
- California State Council of Laborers[185]
- California Teachers Association[74]
- United Domestic Workers[185]
- Organizations
- Association of California School Administrators[185]
- Bay Area Council[187]
- California Chamber of Commerce[188]
- California Children's Hospital Association[189]
- California Dental Association[190]
- California Farm Bureau[191]
- California Hospital Association[192]
- California Medical Association[73]
- California Republican Assembly[193]
- National Association for the Advancement of Colored People California Hawaii State Conference[161]
- California School Boards Association[14]
- California Society of Certified Public Accountants[194]
- California State Sheriffs Association[186]
- California Taxpayers Association[116]
- California YIMBY[76]
- Cato Institute[195]
- Equality California[161]
- GrowSF[196]
- Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association[197]
- Indivisible Marin[198]
- Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California[73]
- Reform California[115]
- United Health Centers of San Joaquin Valley[199]
- Political parties
- American Independent Party[200]
- California Republican Party[201]
- Libertarian Party of California[202]
- San Francisco Democratic Party[156]
- Newspapers and media
- California Post[203]
- Inland Empire Community News[204]
- La Opinión[205]
- Los Angeles Times[62]
- National Review[206]
- San Fernando Valley Sun[207]
- The Bakersfield Californian[208]
- The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle[209]
- The Wall Street Journal[60]
- The Washington Post[61]
- 12 Southern California News Group-owned newspapers:
- Daily Breeze[210]
- Inland Valley Daily Bulletin[211]
- Los Angeles Daily News[212]
- Orange County Register[213]
- Pasadena Star-News[214]
- Press-Telegram[215]
- Redlands Daily Facts[216]
- San Gabriel Valley Tribune[217]
- The Press-Enterprise[218]
- The San Bernardino Sun[219]
- Whittier Daily News[220]
- The San Diego Union-Tribune[221][c]
Neutral/declined to endorse
- U.S. senators
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts (2013–present) (D)[222]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Friends Committee on Legislation of California[225]
- League of Women Voters of California[79]
- San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association[226]
- Government bodies
Polling
Among likely voters (LV) only. View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size[d] |
Margin of error | Phrasing | Yes | No | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVC Media[228][A] | September 23 – October 2, 2026 | 2,906 (LV) | ± 2.5% | [i] | 38% | 42% | 21% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[230][B] | September 21–24, 2026 | 625 (LV) | ±4.0% | [ii] | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Berkeley IGS[229][C] | September 15–20, 2026 | 4512 (LV) | ±2.0% | [iii] | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[232][D] | September 15–20, 2026 | 742 (LV) | ±5.5% | [iv] | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| TrueDot[233][E] | September 8–14, 2026 | 2418 (RV) | ±2.7% | [v] | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| 1983 (LV) | ±3.0% | 45% | 43% | 12% | |||
| Public Policy Institute of California[234] | September 4–10, 2026 | 1097 (LV) | ±3.8% | [vi] | 52% | 46% | 2% |
| FM3 Research (D)[235][F] | August 23–27, 2026 | 1250 (LV) | – | [vii] | 44% | 47% | 8% |
| Berkeley IGS[229][C] | August 3–9, 2026 | 2310 (LV) | ±2.5% | [viii] | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| FM3 Research (D)[237][G] | July 22–27, 2026 | 842 (LV) | – | [ix] | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| New River Strategies[229][H] | June 23–25, 2026 | 1553 (LV) | ±2.5% | – | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Goodwin Simon Strategic Research[238][I] | June 10–15, 2026 | 607 (LV) | – | [x] | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Tulchin Research (D)[240][J] | June 8–14, 2026 | 1000 (LV) | ±3.1% | [xi] | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[241] | May 14–18, 2026 | 986 (LV) | ±4.1% | [xii] | 54% | 45% | 1% |
| Berkeley IGS[242][K] | March 9–15, 2026 | 5109 (RV) | ±2.0% | [xiii] | 52% | 33% | 15% |
| TrueDot[244][E] | February 25 – March 3, 2026 | 1220 (RV) | ±3.0% | [v] | 50% | 28% | 23% |
| The Mellman Group (D)[245][L] | January 6–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ±3.0% | [xiv] | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Nestpoint[246] | January 2–12, 2026 | 907 (LV) | ±3.0% | – | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| David Binder Research (D)[247][M] | December 6–10, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ±3.5% | [xv] | 55% | 39% | 6% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Independent Voter Project.[229]
- Poll sponsored by NBCUniversal Local and Telemundo Station Group.[230]
- Poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.[229]
- Poll sponsored by KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune.[229]
- Poll sponsored by Politico and the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research.[229]
- Poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.[243]
- Poll phrasing
- Respondents were read the initiative's ballot title and summary. They were then given the Legislative Analyst's Office's estimate that Proposition 40 would raise tens of billions of dollars but could cost up to $1 billion a year in income tax revenue if wealthy residents leave California.[228]
- "A YES vote on this measure means: The state would collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth. A NO vote on this measure means: The state would not collect a one-time tax from billionaires equal to 5 percent of their wealth. If the election were held today and you were filling out your ballot right now, how would you vote on Proposition 40?"[232]
- "A proposed citizens' initiative for the November 2026 state ballot is titled "Imposes One-Time Tax on Certain Individuals and Trusts. Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It imposes a one-time tax of up to 5% on taxpayers and trusts with covered assets valued over $1 billion; covered assets include businesses, securities, art, collectibles, and intellectual property, but exclude real property and some pensions and retirement accounts. It allocates 90% of these tax revenues for health care, 10% for food assistance or education-related programs; and prohibits using revenues to replace existing funding for these purposes. It exempts such tax revenues from constitutional requirements for school funding, budget reserves, and state spending limit. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?"[115]
- "The Billionaire Tax initiative calls for imposing a one-time 5% state tax on the total wealth of any California resident whose net worth is greater than 1 billion dollars. Supporters say it will provide much needed tax revenues and help offset the cutbacks being made by the Trump administration to existing state health care and food assistance programs. Opponents say its passage would undercut state tax revenues in the long run and stifle innovation as many of California's highest paying taxpayers and most successful individuals may choose to leave the state to avoid the tax. If you were voting today on the Billionaire Tax Initiative, would you vote Yes or No?"[115]