2026 Colombian presidential election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Presidential elections were held in Colombia on 31 May 2026.[1][2] Incumbent president Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term.[3]
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31 May 2026 (first round)
21 June 2026 (second round) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the first round, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. As none of the 13 candidates obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the two on 21 June 2026.[4]
Background
In the previous presidential election in 2022, as none of the presidential nominees obtained at least 50% of the votes in the first round, a runoff was held between the top two candidates, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández Suárez.[5] Petro won the run-off, becoming the first left-wing candidate to be elected president of Colombia since the country's independence in 1810.[6][7][8] The results for the second round saw the lowest record of spoiled and blank ballots in over twenty years and a turnout of 58.17%, the highest since 1998.[9]
Since taking office, Petro and his allies have been involved in several scandals.[3] One scandal, nicknamed "Nannygate", involved the publishing of recordings of then-ambassador to Venezuela, Armando Benedetti, speaking with Petro's Chief of Staff, Laura Sarabia, about possible illegal financing and threats of revealing compromising information on campaign rivals. Both were forced to resign from their positions as a result. The scandal lowered approval of Petro, being viewed by the public as an indication of corruption inside the government.[10][11] His presidential approval rating dropped to a low of 26% in July 2023 according to a Datexco survey.[12]
In 2025, Petro fired his entire cabinet to reassess his previous choices in light of his appointment of Armando Benedetti as Chief of Staff and promotion of thirty-year-old Laura Sarabia to Foreign Minister; both were embroiled in a campaign finance scandal.[13] His key labor and health-care reforms stalling at the legislative branch,[14] the arrest of his son in a money laundering scandal involving campaign financing,[15][16] and the scandal involving his ministers contributed to a decrease in public support for the president.[17][18] However, Petro's approval ratings rebounded significantly, reaching 49% approval as recently as February 2026.[19]
His presidency has been characterized by a progressive economic policy, including a substantial increase in the minimum wage, the strengthening of the legal framework for labor rights, the redistribution of land to peasants, and higher social spending. Poverty and unemployment have declined, but his opponents point to a rise in public debt.[20] His policy of “Total Peace,” aimed at demobilizing all armed groups and definitively ending Colombian conflict, is generally regarded as a failure. He is ending his term with an approval rating of about 50%, compared with a disapproval rating of 43%.[21]
Electoral system
Colombian presidents are elected for four-year terms using a two-round system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff is held between the top two candidates.[22] The vice president is elected on the same ticket as the president. Presidents are limited to a single four-year term, and Article 191 of the constitution requires candidates to be Colombian by birth and at least thirty years old. In line with the constitution, Colombian citizens by birth or by naturalization, aged eighteen or older have the right to vote. Several scenarios can cause the loss of the right to vote, as outlined in the constitution. Citizens in detention centers can vote from the establishments determined by the National Civil Registry. The civil registry inscription is not automatic, and citizens must go to the regional office of the registry to register.[23] Legislative Act No. 2 of 2015 established that the runner-up in the presidential elections is given a seat in the Senate and their vice president candidate becomes a member of the Chamber of Representatives.[24]
In order to be accepted as a candidate, applicants must either have the backing of a recognized political party in order to run as their official candidate, or to collect a minimum number of signatures in order to run as an independent candidate.[citation needed]
Candidates
Historic Pact
Cepeda announced his candidacy in July 2025 and was considered one of the initial favorites for the presidential nomination of the Historic Pact in the polls. Cepeda initially competed against six other pre-candidates, four of whom later withdrew, leaving him to face Minister Carolina Corcho and former mayor of Medellín, Daniel Quintero, in the primary election.
Following his victory in the primary election in October 2025, Cepeda officially became the presidential candidate of the Historic Pact. Carolina Corcho, who received the second-highest number of votes, became the lead candidate for the Senate in the 2026 parliamentary elections in March.
After obtaining an overwhelming majority during the parliamentary election on March 8, Cepeda would announce Aida Quilcué as the candidate for vice president on Monday, March 9.
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| Iván Cepeda | Aida Quilcué | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Senator (2014–present) |
Senator (2022–present) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| [25][26][27][28] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic Centre
Paloma Valencia became the official candidate of the Democratic Center after winning by a wide margin among the delegates, defeating her opponent, Senator María Fernanda Cabal. Valencia also competed in the national primary election on March 8 during the 2026 parliamentary election, where she obtained a significant majority with 3,236,286 votes, surpassing her eight fellow candidates.
Valencia announced her vice-presidential candidate on Thursday, March 12, revealing Juan Daniel Oviedo, who obtained 1,255,510 votes, the second highest vote count during the national primary election.
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| Paloma Valencia | Juan Daniel Oviedo | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Senator (2014–present) |
General Director National Administrative Department of Statistics (2018–2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| [29][30] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
National Salvation Movement
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| Abelardo de la Espriella | José Manuel Restrepo | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Businessman (2002–present) |
Minister of Finance and Public Credit (2021–2022) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other parties and candidates
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Declined or deceased candidates
Opinion polls
First round
2026
The CNE suspended AtlasIntel's polls (partnered with Semana) on May 19, 2026, over concerns that invalid methodologies led to biased election reporting. Specific irregularities included digital exclusion bias, model-dependent estimation, inconsistent data, quality control failures, and candidate popularity relative inflation. The ban was lifted on May 21 for procedural reasons (lack of quorum), but the technical probe remains ongoing.[52]
| Fieldwork date | Pollsters | Sample | Margin of error | |
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Blank [b] | Void | Undecided | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda PH |
Abelardo de la Espriella MSN |
Paloma Valencia CD |
Sergio Fajardo D&C |
Claudia López IC |
Santiago Botero RS |
Miguel Londoño CD |
Roy Barreras LF |
Carlos Caicedo FC |
Luis Murillo CR |
Mauricio Lizcano ASI |
Sondra Macollins AM |
Gustavo Camacho PEC |
Clara López ED (withdrawn)[c] | ||||||||
| 31 May 2026 | E-14 Preliminary rapid count | 23,982,304
57.88% |
~3.0%
(Historical) |
9,688,361
40.90% |
10,661,499
43 74% |
1,639,685
6.92% |
1,009,073
4.26% |
225,517
0.95% |
206,140
0.87% |
28,657
0.12% |
14,108
0.05% |
12,694
0.05% |
13,270
0.05% |
53,738
0.22% |
19,889
0.08% |
5,627
0.02% |
— | 271,104
1.14% |
292,975
1.22% |
107,314
0.45% |
2.84% |
| 13–20 May 2026 | Invamer[55] | 2,224 | 2.44% | 44.6% | 31.6% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/a | 2.0% | N/a | N/a | 13.0% |
| Decision of vote | 2,356 | 2.19% | 88.8% | — | 11.2% | — | |||||||||||||||
| 9–14 May 2026 | AtlasIntel/SEMANA [56] | 5,039 | 1% | 36.0% | 31.5% | 16.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | — | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.5% |
| 4–11 May 2026 | Fundación Génesis Crea[57] | 4,352 | 1.48% | 35.1% | 21.6% | 25.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 3.2% | — | 5.4% | 13.5% |
| 15–24 April 2026 | Invamer[58] | 3,800 | 2% | 44.3% | 21.5% | 19.8% | 2% | 3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | N/a | 4.8% | N/a | N/a | 22.8% |
| 20–22 April 2026 | GAD3[59] | 1,500 | 2% | 36.0% | 21.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | N/a | 4.8% | N/a | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| 6–9 April 2026 | Atlas Intel/SEMANA[60] | 3,617 | 2% | 40.82% | 29.43% | 24.79% | 5.38% | 1.05% | 0.63% | 0% | 0.32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.11% | 0% | 0% | N/a | N/a | N/a | 11.39% |
| 38.84% | 27.95% | 23.53% | 5.14% | 1.03% | 0.62% | 0% | 0.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% | 2.5% | N/a | N/a | 10.89% | ||||
| 37.8% | 27.2% | 22.9% | 5% | 1% | 0.6% | 0% | 0.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 2% | 10.6% | ||||
| 20 March 2026 | The Electoral Tribunal finalized the list of the 14 first-round candidates.[d] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| March 2026 | CELAG[61] | --- | --- | 47.84% | 18.25% | 24.68% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 23.16% |
| 40.9% | 15.4% | 21.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | N/a | 0.3% | N/a | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | N/a | 0.9% | 7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 19.8% | ||||
| 19–25 March 2026 | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[62] | 3,736 | ±2.2 pp | 42.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 19.4% |
| 37.5% | 20.2% | 19.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 11% | N/a | N/a | 17.3% | ||||
| 17–21 March 2026 | CNC[63] | 2,157 | ±3 pp | 41.27% | 18.42% | 26.56% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 14.47% |
| 34.5% | 15.4% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 8% | 12.3% | ||||
| 16–18 March 2026 | Noticias RCN /Gad3[64] | 1,200 | ±3 pp | 43.21% | 25.93% | 19.75% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 17.28% |
| 35% | 21% | 16% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1% | 0.1% | N/a | N/a | 0.2% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 15% | ||||
| 10–12 March 2026 | AtlasIntel/SEMANA[65] | 4,291 | ±2 pp | 36.4% | 27.9% | 17.5% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0% | 0.9% | N/a | 0.7% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.3% (Incl.) |
1% (Exc.) |
2.9% (Excluded) |
8.5% |
| 11–22 February 2026 | Invamer[66] | 3,800 | ±1.93 pp | 37.1% | 18.9% | 10% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | N/a | 0.4% | 0.3% | N/a | 2.8% | 2.4% | N/a | N/a | 18.2% |
| February 2026 | CELAG[67] | --- | --- | 46.41% | 30.62% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 15.79% |
| 38.2% | 25.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 0.8% | N/a | N/a | 1% | 0.5% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 0.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 13% | |||||
| 27 January – 4 February 2026 | AtlasIntel/SEMANA[68] | 7,298 | ±1 pp | 31.4% | 32.1% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 3.7% | N/a | 2.1% | 0.3% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 5.3% | N/a | 7.7% (Excluded) |
0.7% |
| 15–21 January 2026 | CNC/Cambio[69] [70] | 2,202 | ±2.9 pp | 28.2% | 15.5% | N/a | 9.8% | 3.7% | N/a | N/a | 0.3% | 0.9% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 2.3% | 16.1% | 7.5% | 12.7% |
| 14–22 January 2026 | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica [71] | 4,245 | ±1.8 pp | 33.6% | 18.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1% | N/a | 0 7%% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | N/a | N/a | 0.8% | N/a | N/a | 13% | 15.4% |
| 13–15 January 2026 | Noticias RCN/Gad3[72] | 1,207 | ±2.83 pp | 30% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | N/a | 1% | N/a | N/a | 0.1% | N/a | N/a | N/a | 5% | 11% | 14% | 8% |
| 5–8 January 2026 | AtlasIntel/SEMANA[73] | 4,550 | ±1 pp | 26.5% | 28.0% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | N/a | N/a | 0.2%% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 7.2% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
2025
| Fieldwork date | Pollsters | Sample | Bolívar PH |
Cepeda PH |
Corcho PH |
Muhamad PH |
Pizarro PH |
Quintero PH |
Cabal CD |
Uribe Turbay † CD |
Uribe Londoño CD |
Valencia CD |
de la Espriella Ind. |
Fajardo D&C |
Dávila Ind. |
Galán NL |
Cepeda PCC |
Cristo Ind. |
Gaviria Ind. |
Gómez PLC |
Hernández AV |
López Ind. |
Luna Ind. |
Murillo Ind. |
Oviedo Ind. |
Pinzón PVO |
Vargas CR |
Zuluaga Ind. |
Others | Blank | None | Don't know/No answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–17 Dec | W.A.A[74] | 11509 | - | 30.7% | - | - | - | - | 4.1% | - | 2.3% | 0.7% | 16.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | - | 0.4% | - | - | 3.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 3.1% | - | 2.7% | 11.8% | - | - |
| 15–27 Nov | Invamer[75] | 2080 | - | 31.9% | - | - | - | - | 1.1% | - | 4.2% | 1.1% | 18.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | - | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | - | 6.6% | 4.5% | - | - |
| 10–15 Nov | Yamil Cure S.A.S[76] | 2250 | - | 19.6% | - | - | - | 5.2% | - | - | 5.0% | - | 15.6% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.1% | - | - | - | 2.2% | 2.9% | - | 1.1% | 6.4% | - | 13.7% |
| 6–14 Nov | CNC[77] | 2140 | - | 20.9% | - | - | - | 1.8% | 0.9% | - | 4.1% | - | 14.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | - | - | 1.0% | - | - | 5.0% | 0.3% | - | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | - | 1.3% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 7.5% |
| 11–16 Oct | CNC[78] | 1803 | - | 8.0% | 8.1% | - | - | 2.5% | 1.5% | - | 9.7% | 0.4% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.1% | - | 1.1% | 0.1% | - | 5.5% | 1.7% | - | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 9.9% | 5.3% |
| 11 August 2025 | Death of Miguel Uribe Turbay | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1–5 Jul | Guarumo[79] | 2122 | 10.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 13.7% | - | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | - | - | - | - | 2.5% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | - | 2.9% | 0.4% | 2.9% | - | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| 21–26 Apr | Guarumo[80] | 2159 | 12.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | - | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | - | 1.0% | - | 11.4% | 11.6% | 4.0% | - | - | - | - | - | 4.7% | 1.2% | - | 1.5% | - | 5.6% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| 21–25 Mar | Invamer[81] | 1200 | 11.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | - | 0.8% | 1.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | - | 0.5% | - | - | 3.8% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 7.3% | - | - | 4.1% | - | - |
| 18–20 Mar | CNC[82] | 1594 | 10.1% | 3.6% | - | - | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 6.9% | - | - | 1.1% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 7.6% | - | - | - | - | 3.0% | 9.5% | - | - | - | 0.4% | 7.9% | - | 0.9% | 2.8% | 9.9% | 2.9% |
| 10–13 Feb | Guarumo[83] | 2140 | 11.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | - | 1.2% | - | 11.5% | 15.1% | 4.0% | - | 0.2% | - | - | 3.3% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| 27–29 Jan | CNC[84] | 1513 | 6.7% | - | 3.1% | - | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | - | - | - | - | 11.8% | 12.7% | 7.8% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.8% | - | 6.2% | - | - | 5.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% |
2024
| Fieldwork date | Pollsters | Sample | Candidates | Lead | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dávila | Galán | Fajardo | López | Cabal | Botero | Pizarro | Gaviria | Quintero | Márquez | Vargas | Bolívar | Oviedo | Uribe | Noguera | Muhamad | Murillo | Valencia | Others | Blank | Don't know/No answer | None | ||||
| 9 - 12 December | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[85] | 2018 | 13.1% | 5.0% | 14.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 2.8% | - | 5.0% | 8.9% | 1.5% | 3.2% | - | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | - | 5.6% | 3.6% | 7.7% | 2.2% |
| 22 - 26 November | Invamer[86] | 1200 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 12,6% | 1,6% | - | 4.1% | - | 6.1% | - | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | - | 1.2% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 6.3% | - | 17.4% | 2.83% |
| 18 - 21 November | CNC[87] | 2000 | 11.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 5.8% | - | 6.8% | 2.5% | 5.0% | - | 8.0% | 6.5% | - | 4.2% | - | - | 3.1% | - | - | 2.4% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% |
| 25 - 28 October | Invamer[88] | 1504 | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | - | 5.1% | - | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | - | 5.4% | - | - | 1.4% | - | 1.1% | 0.6% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 2.53% |
| 7 - 11 September | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[89] | 2012 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | - | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 6.2% | - | 1.3% | 3% | - | - | 1.4% | - | 5.3% | 1.3% | 9.2% | 2.2% |
| 26 August- 4 September | CNC[90] | 1304 | 7.5% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% | - | 5.4% | - | 1.7% | 3.0% | 8.1% | 4.3% | - | 6.7% | - | 1% | 2.2% | - | 22.3% | - | 5.9% | 22.3% | 2.7% |
| 31 July - 4 August | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[91] | 2023 | 9.6% | 3.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | - | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 3.0% | - | 1.4% | 1.4% | - | 7.2% | 2.5% | 12.6% | 2.2% |
| 22 - 26 June | Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[92] | 1998 | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | - | 5.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | - | 0.5% | 0.7% | - | 5.9% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 2.2% |
| 7 - 9 May | CNC[93] | 1030 | - | 13% | 12% | 9% | 5% | - | 8% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 4% | - | 1% | - | - | 14% | 5% | 4% | 14% | 3.4% |
A poll conducted by market research firm Guarumo and Ecoanalitica in February 2025 showed conservative candidate Vicky Dávila leading with 15.1%, followed by president Petro's ally Gustavo Bolívar at 11.9%. It also showed former presidential candidate and centrist Sergio Fajardo at 11.5%. Meanwhile, 7.1% polled said that they would not vote for any of the candidates.[94]
Another poll conducted by the National Consulting Center in March 2025, commissioned and financed by Semana magazine, showed a close lead between Dávila with 13.6% and Fajardo with 13.4%, as well as Bolívar at 10.1%. The poll also showed Fajardo leading the voting intention with 35.1% against Dávila's 31.7% in a run-off.[95]
Second round
This section shows opinion polls for hypothetical second-round match-ups. Results include voting intentions, with undecided/non-voters not explicitly broken out in the poll.
Cepeda vs. de la Espriella
| Pollster | Date(s) administered | Iván Cepeda | Abelardo de la Espriella | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invamer[96] | 13–20 May 2026 | 52.4% | 45.3% | 7.1% |
| AtlasIntel/Semana[97] | 11–14 May 2026 | 40.4% | 44.0% | 3.6% |
| Fundación Génesis Crea | 4–11 May 2026 | 46.5% | 41.4% | 5.1% |
| Invamer[98] | 15–24 April 2026 | 54.6% | 42.6% | 12.0% |
| GAD3[99] | 20–22 April 2026 | 46.0% | 35.0% | 11.0% |
| AtlasIntel | 6–9 April 2026 | 39.8% | 48.8% | 9% |
| Guarumo/Ecoanalitica[100] | 19–25 March 2026 | 44.9% | 36.4% | 8.5% |
| CNC[101] | 17–21 March 2026 | 48.1% | 35.5% | 12.6% |
| GAD3[64] | 16–18 March 2026 | 45.0% | 36.0% | 9.0% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA | 10–12 March 2026 | 39.2% | 43.5% | 4.3% |
| Invamer[66] | 11–22 February 2026 | 59.4% | 37.4% | 20.0% |
| CELAG[67] | February 2026 | 45.3% | 38.4% | 6.9% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA[102] | 27 Jan – 4 February 2026 | 34.6% | 36.8% | 2.2% |
| CNC[103] | 15–21 January 2026 | 45.2% | 25.7% | 19.5% |
Other scenarios
Cepeda vs. Valencia
| Pollster | Date(s) administered | Iván Cepeda | Paloma Valencia | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invamer[96] | 13–20 May 2026 | 52.8% | 44.3% | 8.5% |
| AtlasIntel/Semana[97] | 11 May-14 May 2026 | 39.2% | 40% | 0.8% |
| Fundación Génesis Crea | 4–11 May 2026 | 45.6% | 48.3% | 2.7% |
| Invamer[98] | 15–24 April 2026 | 51.2% | 46.6% | 4.6% |
| GAD3[99] | 20–22 April 2026 | 44.0% | 37.0% | 7.0% |
| AtlasIntel | 6–9 April 2026 | 39.6% | 47.1% | 7.5% |
| Guarumo/Ecoanalitica[100] | 19-25 Mar 2026 | 43.3% | 40.0% | 3.3% |
| CNC[101] | 17-21 Mar 2026 | 43.3% | 42.9% | 0.3% |
| GAD3[104] | 16-18 Mar 2026 | 43.0% | 40.0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA[105] | 10-12 Mar 2026 | 38.4% | 45.7% | 7.3% |
| CNC[106] | 23-28 Feb 2026 | 57.0% | 25.4% | 31.6% |
| Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[107] | 19-25 Feb 2026 | 40.8% | 26.4% | 14.4% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA[108] | 19-25 February 2026 | 39.8% | 29.6% | 10 2% |
| GAD3[109] | 16-23 February 2026 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 15% |
| Invamer[110] | 11-22 February 2026 | 65.2% | 30.7 | 34.5% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA[111] | 27 January–4 February 2026 | 35.2% | 26.9% | 8.3% |
| CNC[112] | 15-21 January 2026 | 47.7% | 17.8% | 12.6% |
| Guarumo/EcoAnalítica[113] | 14-22 January 2026 | 40.0% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| GAD3[114] | 13-15 January 2026 | 43.0% | 20.0% | 23.0% |
| AtlasIntel/SEMANA[73] | 5–8 January 2026 | 35.8% | 38.2% | 2.4% |
Cepeda vs. Fajardo
| Pollster | Date(s) administered | Iván Cepeda | Sergio Fajardo | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 6–9 April 2026 | 38.3 | 37.4% | 0.9% |
| Guarumo/EcoAnalítica | 19-25 March 2026 | 44.8% | 24.8% | 20% |
| GAD3 | 16-18 March 2026 | 44.0% | 32.0% | 12% |
| AtlasIntel | 10-12 March 2026 | 36.9% | 36.7% | 0.2 |
| CNC | 23-28 February 2026 | 52.1% | 29.9% | 22.2% |
| Guarumo/EcoAnalítica | 19-25 February 2026 | 40.6% | 25.7% | 14.9% |
| AtlasIntel | 19-25 February 2026 | 37.5% | 25.1% | 12.4% |
| GAD3 | 16-23 February 2026 | 36.0% | 26.0% | 10% |
| Invamer | 11-22 February 2026 | 53.9% | 42.8% | 11.1% |
| AtlasIntel | 27 January–4 February2026 | 33.7% | 26.2% | 2.5% |
| CNC | 15-21 January 2026 | 40.7% | 28.0% | 5.7% |
| Guarumo/EcoAnalítica | 14-22 January 2026 | 39.3% | 24.8% | 14.5% |
| GAD3 | 13-15 January 2026 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 15% |
| AtlasIntel | 5–8 January 2026 | 32.1% | 39.6% | 7.5% |
| W.A.A | 13–17 December 2025 | 42.1% | 19.1% | 23% |
| Invamer | 15–27 November 2025 | 48.9% | 46.4% | 2.5% |
Results
Results from the first round indicated that National Salvation candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led in first place, a contrast to opinion polls which suggested a lead for the Historic Pact candidate Iván Cepeda. Espriella won 43.7% of the popular vote, while Cepeda followed with 40.9% of the vote. Democratic Centre candidate Paloma Valencia took third place with 6.9% of the popular vote, also underperforming opinion polls that suggested higher vote percentages for Valencia.
| Candidate | Running mate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella | José Manuel Restrepo | Independent[a] | 10,361,499 | 43.74 | |
| Iván Cepeda | Aida Quilcué | Historic Pact | 9,688,361 | 40.90 | |
| Paloma Valencia | Juan Daniel Oviedo | Democratic Centre | 1,639,685 | 6.92 | |
| Sergio Fajardo | Edna Bonilla | Dignity and Commitment | 1,009,073 | 4.26 | |
| Claudia López | Leonardo Huerta | Independent | 225,517 | 0.95 | |
| Santiago Botero Jaramillo | Carlos Cuevas | Independent | 206,140 | 0.87 | |
| Mauricio Lizcano | Pedro de la Torre | Independent | 53,839 | 0.23 | |
| Miguel Uribe Londoño | Luisa Villgas | Colombian Democratic Party | 28,657 | 0.12 | |
| Sandra Macollins Garvin | Leonardo Karam Helo | Independent | 19,889 | 0.08 | |
| Roy Barreras | Martha Zamora | The Force | 14,108 | 0.06 | |
| Luis Gilberto Murillo | Luz Zapata | Independent | 13,270 | 0.06 | |
| Carlos Caicedo | Nelson Alacrón | Independent | 12,694 | 0.05 | |
| Gustavo Matamoros Camacho | Mila Paz | Colombian Ecologist Party | 5,627 | 0.02 | |
| Blank votes | 410,970 | 1.73 | |||
| Total | 23,689,329 | 100.00 | |||
| Valid votes | 23,689,329 | 98.78 | |||
| Invalid votes | 292,975 | 1.22 | |||
| Total votes | 23,982,304 | 100.00 | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 41,421,973 | 57.90 | |||
| Source: Registraduria | |||||
Notes
- Received support from the National Salvation Movement.
- Under Article 258 of the Colombian Constitution, as regulated by Law 1475 of 2011, the blank vote (voto en blanco) is considered a valid vote. It is a decisive factor in the first round, as a candidate must secure an absolute majority (50% plus one) of all valid votes to win outright. If the blank vote exceeds 50% of the total valid votes cast, the election must be repeated with an entirely new slate of candidates. Historically, however, the blank vote rarely exceeds 1.75% in the first round. While polls consistently include these figures, excluding blank, null, and undecided responses often provides a clearer reflection of candidate standing; historical data suggests that many self-identified "blank" voters are, in practice, undecided voters who eventually select a candidate.
- Clara López Obregón officially withdrew her candidacy after the final registration deadline. Consequently, her name and photo will remain on the official ballot for the first round. However, any votes cast for her will be considered void.
- Notes on March 2026 Polling Data: ¹ Researchs' fieldwork: The 12 electoral polls included in the table below—published between January and early April 2026—utilized fieldwork and data collection concluded prior to the March 20 final candidate registration deadline. While these surveys do not perfectly match the finalized field of 14 candidates, those excluded were minor candidates with support levels averaging less than 1% (typically between 0.1% and 0.5%). Additionally, this data reflects the following electoral dynamics: ² Candidate Withdrawal: Clara López officially withdrew her candidacy after being confirmed on the final ballot to support Iván Cepeda. While her name remains on the legal ballot, her polling figures reflect her status prior to this withdrawal. ³ Blank Votes: While the "Blank Vote" (voto en blanco) is a valid legal option in Colombia, it has historically averaged only 1.5%–1.7% in first-round elections. Data suggests that many respondents who initially select "blank" or "null" are effectively undecided and often choose a candidate by election day. ⁴ Adjusted Projections: In several polls, calculating percentages by excluding blank, null, and undecided responses provides a clearer reflection of the leading candidates' potential to secure an absolute majority or qualify for a second round.