2026 Makerfield by-election

Constituency

The Makerfield constituency contains the towns of Ashton-in-Makerfield and Hindley as well as other residential areas on the western outskirts of Greater Manchester.^[17] Considered part of the red wall of working-class areas in northern and central England that traditionally vote Labour,^[18] Makerfield has been a safe seat for the Labour Party since its creation in 1983 from parts of Ince, Wigan and Leigh.^[19][20] Makerfield was represented from 1987 to 2010 by one-time cabinet minister Sir Ian McCartney,^[20] then by Yvonne Fovargue until 2024.^[21] In 2024, Josh Simons held the seat with a 5,399-vote (13.4%-points) majority over Reform UK.^[22][23]

Ninety-seven percent of the constituency's residents are ethnically White, and 96% were born in the UK.^[24] Just over half (51%) belong to social grades A, B, and C1. The average household income is £38,810, below the average for Great Britain as a whole but slightly above that for North West England, and the home-ownership rate is 74%, against 64% nationally. In the 2016 referendum an estimated 65% of those who voted chose to leave the European Union.^[17]

Political context

The Makerfield by-election took place in a significantly altered electoral landscape following the May 2026 local elections. Reform UK made large gains across Greater Manchester, while the Liberal Democrats gained control of Stockport Council. Labour suffered large losses, while the Green Party also increased its support.^[25] In the 2026 Wigan Council election, Reform UK won all eight council wards in the Makerfield constituency with around 50% of the vote.^[26][27] Polling analysis suggested that while no 'safe' Labour seats remained, Burnham's personal popularity in Greater Manchester would make a victory in the by-election achievable for Labour, though the party would face significant challenges from both Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left.^[28]

Burnham's candidacy received much press attention, as he was seen as a probable challenger for the position of Labour Party leader against incumbent leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, opening a route to him becoming Prime Minister.^[29] The by-election was described as one of the most consequential in recent British history,^[30] with intense global media coverage, including in the constituency itself.^[31][32][33]

The by-election occurred on the same day as Westminster by-elections for two Scottish seats: Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.^[34]

Labour and Co-operative Party

Incumbent Labour MP Josh Simons resigned in order to provide a parliamentary seat for Andy Burnham, the incumbent mayor of Greater Manchester and former MP for Leigh.^[35]

As an incumbent mayor, Burnham required authorisation from the Labour Party's National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand as an MP. Burnham's previous attempt to represent Labour at the February 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election was blocked by the NEC; however, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Lucy Powell, who serves as an officer of the NEC, and former health secretary Wes Streeting publicly supported Burnham's bid to become the Labour candidate for Makerfield.^[36][37] On 15 May, the NEC authorised Burnham to be considered as a candidate.^[38][29][39]

On 19 May, Burnham was confirmed as the candidate after no other names were put forward for selection by the NEC, thus bypassing the local party's voting process.^[40][41][42] He stood on behalf of both the Labour and Co-operative parties under the Labour and Co-operative Party description. Burnham was a minister in both the Blair and Brown governments, and in the shadow cabinets of Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.^[43]

Reform UK

On 19 May, Robert Kenyon, a local plumber born in the constituency,^[39] was confirmed as Reform UK's candidate. He was recently elected as the councillor for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North on Wigan Council, and ran as a Reform UK candidate in Makerfield in the 2024 general election, finishing second to Labour.^[44][45] He formerly served as a combat engineer in the Army Reserve within the Royal Engineers.^[46]

Shortly thereafter, Hope not Hate published a series of tweets attributed to Kenyon, which included COVID-19 conspiracies; endorsing lewd comments about presenter Carol Vorderman; and sexualised comments about female rugby players.^[47][48][49] On a separate web forum, Kenyon was also alleged to have admitted his own sexism;^[48] suggested that women make false rape accusations to access abortions "for vanity purposes";^[50][51] criticised Brexit and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage;^[52][53] and said that Russia was "within their rights" to annex Crimea.^[54] It was also reported that Kenyon had connected on Facebook with neo-fascist campaigners such as Gary Raikes.^[55]

Reform UK said that it "fully back[ed]" Kenyon and was aware of his accounts during the party's vetting process,^[56] adding that connecting with Raikes on Facebook "does not constitute an endorsement of his views".^[47] They also stated that Kenyon did not support Russia's annexation of Crimea or their invasion of Ukraine.^[57] Reform MP Danny Kruger alleged that several of Kenyon's comments were taken out of context.^[58] After Vorderman asked for an apology, Kenyon admitted his post was "crude" but declined to apologise, stating that "no offence was meant".^[59] The posts were criticised by a spokesperson for the Burnham campaign and by Anna Turley, the Labour Party Chair, both of whom stated that Kenyon was "not fit to represent" Makerfield;^[48][60] Luke Pollard, Minister of State for Defence Readiness, who stated that Kenyon was repeating "Kremlin talking points";^[48] and Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe, who stated Kenyon lacked "a healthy mind".^[61]

Conservative Party

It was initially reported that several figures within the Conservative Party, including Gainsborough MP and Father of the House Edward Leigh and former North East Somerset MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, were supportive of an electoral pact with Reform UK; this was later dismissed by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.^[62]

On 20 May, the party selected Michael Winstanley to stand as its candidate. He was born in Makerfield and had previously stood for election in the constituency in the 1997 general election. He had also stood in 2010 in Wigan, and in 2024 in Leigh and Atherton. He sat as the councillor for Orrell on Wigan Council from 2000 to 2016, serving as the Mayor of Wigan from 2010 to 2011.^[63][42]

Liberal Democrats

On 22 May, the Liberal Democrats introduced as their candidate Jake Austin, a councillor for Hazel Grove on Stockport Council, and candidate in the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election in which he placed sixth.^[64][65][42] Austin was born in the Makerfield constituency.^[66]

Green Party

On 21 May, after a hustings, the Green Party nominated local nurse Chris Kennedy as its candidate.^[67] Kennedy withdrew his candidacy later that day with the Green Party said this was due to conflict with his family's caring responsibilities.^[68] The Times later reported that it had approached him about social media comments in March 2026 in which he had referred to the 2026 Hatzola arson attack as a false flag operation, with BBC News reporting that the comments were a factor in his withdrawal.^[69] The Green Party responded, saying Kennedy apologised for the comments, which did not reflect the view of the party.^[70]

Former Green Party leader Caroline Lucas called on the party to stand down in favour of Burnham, given his support for proportional representation.^[71] The stance was also supported by another former Green leader, Jonathan Bartley, as well as former councillor Rupert Read.^[72] Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb – one of the Greens' two Lords – disagreed,^[73] as did Hannah Spencer, who had recently been elected in Gorton and Denton.^[74]

The Greens nominated Sarah Wakefield, a charity director and a councillor in Manchester City Council, as their new candidate on 26 May.^[75] Wakefield previously attempted to stand in Gorton and Denton.

Restore Britain

Local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd was confirmed on 18 May as Restore Britain's candidate.^[76][42] This was the first time the party stood a candidate for Parliament.^[44][b] Restore said Rebecca had spent "most of her adult life" living and working in the Wigan borough^[39] where she had run a riding school until a conflict with the local council.^[77]

Other candidates

• Libertarian Party – On 22 May, the party nominated Dan Clarke, the Libertarian candidate in the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election.^[78][79] He also contested the 2024 UK general election in Runcorn and Helsby, and the subsequent by-election, as the Liberal Party candidate.^[80][81]
• Count Binface Party – Perennial candidate Jonathan Harvey, as his alter ego Count Binface, fought the by-election.^[82]
• John Dyer (independent)^[82]
• Climate Party – Ed Gemmell stood for the party,^[82] and was a candidate in the 2025 Buckinghamshire Council election.
• Paul Gould (independent)^[82]
• Official Monster Raving Loony Party – The party nominated their leader, Howling Laud Hope, on 19 May.^[83][39][42]
• Robert Pownall (independent) – On 25 May, Pownall, from the campaign organisation Protect The Wild, entered the race as an independent candidate.^[84] In the 2026 Scottish Parliament election he was an independent candidate in Edinburgh Central.
• Rejoin EU – The party nominated barrister Peter Ward on 23 May.^[85]

Labour and Co-operative Party

The Manchester Evening News reported that Burnham would frame his campaign around trust in politics and "economic renewal", alongside more devolution of local powers.^[86] He denied that he would campaign on a platform of rejoining the European Union "in this by-election" and stated that he would not be asking other parties to stand down for him, saying the time had come for Labour to "take [Reform] on".^[87] He named house building as one of his priorities for the area,^[88] alongside tackling anti-social behaviour by building "youth zones" in the area.^[89] He also pledged support for the area's coalfield community.^[90]

The campaign's slogan was "Andy — For Us", and a stylised cartoon image of Burnham featured on Labour's campaign material.^[74][91] The Manchester-based band Oasis gave Burnham permission to use their song "Some Might Say" in the campaign.^[92] Burnham's use of social media was widely noted as a strength of his campaign,^[93][94][95] with reports that he had been resharing memes and fan account content supporting his candidacy, particularly referencing his daily running routine which had become an Internet sensation.^[96]

Starmer confirmed on 21 May that he would personally campaign for Burnham in the by-election "[despite] whatever other discussions are going on".^[97] However, Politics Home reported on 3 June that several Labour MPs who remain supportive of Starmer had refused to campaign for Burnham in Makerfield, with one referring to it as "an act of [political] self-harm".^[30]

Reform UK

Makerfield would be one of Reform UK's top 10 target seats at a general election, according to journalist Stephen Bush.^[98] The party focused its early campaign to appeal to the majority of the area who "voted strongly for Brexit"^[99] in the 2016 referendum.^{[74][100][91]} Party leader Nigel Farage positioned the by-election as a "David versus Goliath" battle: "The Plucky Plumber [Kenyon] taking on Open Borders Burnham".^[101] Farage said that Reform's "priority" in the area would be to ease pressure on social housing, which he attributed to mass immigration.^[102] Kenyon added that, alongside concerns around social housing, his campaign priorities also included opposing greenfield development, campaigning for a new hospital, and support for struggling local pubs.^[103] Several sources noted that Reform's existing voter base in the area were largely indifferent to reports about Kenyon's historical comments on social media.^[104][105]

Campaign material from Reform largely targeted Burnham,^[106] including references to his historical support for the Iraq War and Jeremy Corbyn, his opposition to leaving the European Union, and accusing him of using Makerfield as a "stepping stone".^[93][91] Kenyon also criticised Burnham's mayoralty of Manchester, stating that "the only thing that's changed is the buses have gone yellow".^[103] Figures inside Reform reportedly later became "spooked"^[107] of the higher-than-expected support for the Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd,^[108][109] whom they accused of trying "to split the right of British politics",^[110] and distributed leaflets stating that Restore "can't win here".^[105]

On 12 June, Kenyon was endorsed by television personality Ant Middleton.^[111]

Conservative Party

Winstanley, the Conservative candidate, stated that he would campaign on regeneration of the high street, tackling antisocial behaviour with stronger deterrents, and easing traffic congestion by supporting the completion of the Westwood Link Road.^[112]

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrat candidate Austin stated that he would campaign on the cost of living, environmental protection, and support for local businesses.^[64]

Green Party

According to Green Party leader Zack Polanski, the initial Green candidate Kennedy intended to campaign on a platform of lower bills, affordable housing, and a green economy. Polanski also stated that the Greens would use the by-election to pressure Burnham on his track record.^[67] The replacement candidate, Wakefield, stated that she would campaign locally on flood control and restoring community assets, appealing to voters to vote for "hope and joy".^[113]

Despite a spokesperson initially stating that the party was "looking forward" to the campaign, having shown they "can beat Reform" in the recent Gorton and Denton by-election,^[28] the Green Party decided early into Wakefield's candidacy to limit their campaign resources and scale back canvassing efforts. This came after several Green figures suggested limiting the party's involvement in the by-election in order to give Burnham a greater chance of winning against Kenyon, and to allow the Greens to focus on the Manchester mayoral by-election to be held on 30 July following Burnham's victory.^[114]

Restore Britain

When nominating Shepherd as its candidate on 18 May, Restore Britain said that its priorities were tackling violence against women and anti-social behaviour, opposing overdevelopment, improved support for those with special educational needs, and reinvigorating town centres.^[44] Restore Britain stated that it was the first party running in the by-election whose "thousands" of canvassers, according to the party's campaigns director Charlie Downes,^[115] had visited every property in the constituency.^[116] The Spectator reported that Restore Britain activists were involved in an altercation at the Reform UK campaign office in Makerfield, resulting in the police being called.^[115]

Shepherd's campaign was endorsed by entrepreneur Duncan Bannatyne,^[117] and by US businessman Elon Musk.^[110] The Telegraph noted Restore Britain's "highly effective social media operation" on X, which is owned by Musk, as a strength of Shepherd's campaign.^[116]

Other candidates

• Robert Pownall (independent) stated he would campaign dressed as a fox, to put pressure on the government over its commitments to ban hunting with hounds.^[84]
• Libertarian Party – Clarke stated that he would campaign on personal freedom, and that he would "challenge the government [and] stand up for local constituents".^[78]
• Count Binface Party – Binface stated in his manifesto that he would cap the price of a 99 Flake at 99p, and that of a "Wigan kebab" (a butter pie in a barm cake) at £2.^[118]
• Paul Gould (independent) – He declared that he was standing in opposition to the proposed Peak Cluster carbon capture pipeline and its potential impact on the Wirral.^[119]

Reactions

In his victory speech, Burnham said Labour had a "final chance to change" and described the result as a possible turning point in British politics. He called for a "Makerfield test" at the heart of national politics, under which policies would be judged by whether they worked for communities and delivered greater fairness to places he said had been neglected by Westminster. He also said he would prioritise local interests over party advantage, focus on practical problem-solving, seek to heal divisions after the campaign, and support greater powers for the North.^[140]

Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Burnham and said the result showed that the tide was turning on Reform UK, which he said had "probably" reached the peak of its support. He also said he would stand in any Labour leadership contest and would not "walk away".^[129][132] The result increased pressure on Starmer within the Labour Party, with some Labour figures calling for an orderly leadership transition.^[141]

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage expressed disappointment with the result, saying Reform had been "hoist with our own petard" because Burnham's anti-Starmer message had helped him consolidate support. Farage also urged voters who had backed Restore Britain to support Reform in future elections.^[142] Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch contrasted the Makerfield by-election with the concurrent by-election in Aberdeen South, which saw the Conservatives gain a previously Scottish National Party seat, their first by-election gain in Scotland since 1967. Badenoch said "the Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs all over the country", with a particular emphasis on the oil and gas sector, whilst the Makerfield by-election "was about one man's job".^[143]

Political scientist Rob Ford described the by-election as part of an emerging trend of anti-Reform tactical voting in by-elections.^[135] Stephen Bush wrote that tactical voting, and the polarising nature of Reform UK, is "a serious impediment to Farage's prime ministerial ambitions", noting that Makerfield would be a top 10 target seat for Reform UK at a general election.^[98] Broadcaster Andrew Neil described a "Burnham agenda", but said there are "no policies" and that despite Labour believing they found an "antidote" to Reform in Andy Burnham, he "can't offer anything any more different" than Prime Minister Starmer.^[144]

The Wall Street Journal stated that Burnham could "sweep into Downing Street" with a plurality in a by-election in a constituency of just 77,000 voters – a political situation unprecedented in modern Britain.^[145]

Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June, pending election of a new leader. Burnham immediately announced his candidacy for the 2026 Labour Party leadership election.^[146]