2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election
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The 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of South Dakota. The primary elections were held on June 2, 2026, and since no candidate received over 35% in the Republican primary, a runoff election was held on July 28.[1]
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November 3, 2026
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Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden, who ascended to the office of governor in 2025 after Kristi Noem resigned to become secretary of homeland security, is running for his first full term in office.[2] Rhoden had previously been serving as lieutenant governor under Noem since the two took office in 2019.[2] Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1974.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Larry Rhoden, incumbent governor (2025–present)[2]
- Running mate: Tony Venhuizen, incumbent lieutenant governor (2025–present)[3]
Eliminated in runoff
- Toby Doeden, retail and real estate executive[4]
Eliminated in primary
- Jon Hansen, Speaker of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2011–2013, 2019–present)[5]
- Running mate: Karla Lems, Speaker Pro Tempore of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2025-present) from the 16th district (2023–present)[5]
- Dusty Johnson, U.S. representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2019–present)[6]
Declined
- Marty Jackley, Attorney General of South Dakota (2009–2019, 2023–present)[7] (running for U.S. House)[8]
- Mike Rounds, U.S. Senator (2015–present) and former governor (2003–2011)[9] (running for re-election)[10]
- Paul TenHaken, mayor of Sioux Falls (2018–2026)[11]
First round
Endorsements
Toby Doeden
State legislators
- Steve Haugaard, former speaker of the House (2019–2021) from the 10th district (2015–2023) and candidate for this seat in 2022[12]
- Taffy Howard, state senator from the 34th district (2025–present) and former state representative from the 33rd district (2017–2023)[13]
- Phil Jensen, state representative from the 33rd district (2009–2013, 2021–present) and former state senator from the 33rd district (2013–2021)[14]
- Brandei Schaefbauer, state representative from the 3rd district (2023–present)[15]
- Logan Manhart, state representative from the 1st district (2025–present)[16]
- Bobbi Andera, state representative from the 10th district (2025–present)[17]
- John Carley, state senator from the 29th district (2025–present)[18]
Organizations
- Dakota First Action[19]
Jon Hansen
State legislators
Organizations
Dusty Johnson
Statewide officials
- Dennis Daugaard, former governor of South Dakota (2011–2019)[23]
State legislators
- 36 state senators and representatives[24]
- 77 former state senators and representatives[24]
Organizations
Larry Rhoden
State legislators
- Mike Derby, state representative from the 34th district (2021–present)[27]
- Arch Beal, state senator from the 12th district (2023–present) and former state representative from the 12th district (2015–2023)[28]
- Amber Hulse, state senator from the 30th district (2025–present)[29]
- Michael Rohl, state senator from the 1st district (2021 - present)
Organizations
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant I Invited W Withdrawn A Absent N Not invited |
||||||||
| Johnson | Doeden | Rhoden | Hansen | |||||
| 1 | Mar. 31, 2026 |
Keloland Nexstar Media |
Dan Santella Lauren Soulek |
KELOLAND | P | P | P | P |
| 2 | Apr. 13, 2026 |
South Dakota Public Broadcasting South Dakota News Watch |
Jackie Hendry Alexander Rifaat |
Youtube | P | P | P | P |
| 3 | Apr. 27, 2026 |
Dakota Scout Forum Communications |
Jonatahan Ellis Patrick Lalley |
Youtube | P | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Toby Doeden |
Jon Hansen |
Dusty Johnson |
Larry Rhoden |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute[34] | May 26–27 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 3% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[35][A] | May 18–20, 2026 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 23% | 15% |
| Emerson College[36][B] | May 18–19, 2026 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 19% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[37][C] | April 7–11, 2026 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 17% | 18% | 34% | 17% | 14% |
| Emerson College[38][B] | March 7–9, 2026 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | 14% | 28% | 17% | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[39][D] | March 2–5, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 16% | 10% | 33% | 28% | 12% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[40][E] | October 16–20, 2025 | 502 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 10% | 28% | 27% | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
- Larry Rhoden vs. Dusty Johnson
- Toby Doeden vs. Jon Hansen vs. Marty Jackley vs. Dusty Johnson vs. Larry Rhoden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Toby Doeden |
Jon Hansen |
Marty Jackley |
Dusty Johnson |
Larry Rhoden |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[41][E] | April 9–14, 2025 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 4% | 2% | 18% | 28% | 27% | 20% |
- Mike Rounds vs. Dusty Johnson
Results
Doeden
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Rhoden
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Johnson
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
Hansen
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
As no candidate received 35% of the primary vote, a primary runoff was held between the top two candidates on July 28th, 2026. This was the first runoff ever held in the state since the adoption of a 1985 law that established runoffs for gubernatorial and Congressional primaries.[43]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Toby Doeden | 41,712 | 30.6 | |
| Republican | Larry Rhoden (incumbent) | 34,321 | 25.2 | |
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 31,856 | 23.4 | |
| Republican | Jon Hansen | 28,341 | 20.8 | |
| Total votes | 136,230 | 100.0 | ||
Runoff
Endorsements
Toby Doeden
Organizations
Larry Rhoden
Executive branch officials
State legislators
- Scott Odenbach, Majority Leader of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 31st district (2021–present) (previously endorsed Hansen)[46]
- Taylor Rehfeldt, former Assistant Majority Leader of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2023–2025) from the 14th district (2021–present) (previously endorsed Johnson)[47]
Local officials
- Paul TenHaken, mayor of Sioux Falls (2018–2026)[48]
- Christine Erickson, mayor of Sioux Falls (2026–present)[49]
Organizations
- South Dakota Fraternal Order of Police[50] (previously endorsed Johnson)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Toby Doeden |
Larry Rhoden |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[51] | July 12–13 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 32% | 62% | 7% |
Results
Rhoden
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Doeden
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Larry Rhoden (incumbent) | 83,582 | 70.8 | |
| Republican | Toby Doeden | 34,430 | 29.2 | |
| Total votes | 118,012 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Dan Ahlers, executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party, former state senator (2008–2010), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[52]
- Running mate: Steven McCleerey, former state representative from the 1st district (2015–2021)[53]
Failed to qualify
- Robert Arnold, college student[54]
Endorsements
Dan Ahlers
- Executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021-2025)[55][n 1]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Anthony Sitter, HVAC installer[56]
Withdrawn
- Allison Renville, political organizer and Democratic candidate for South Dakota's 1st legislative district in 2018[57]
- Terry Gleason, web developer and convicted sex offender[58]
- Scott Morris, retired Air Force veteran[59]
Declined
- Rick Knobe, former mayor of Sioux Falls (1974–1984) and candidate for state senate in 2020[60]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[61] | Solid R | September 11, 2025 |
| Fox News[62] | Solid R | July 23, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[63] | Solid R | August 28, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[64] | Likely R | August 15, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[65] | Solid R | June 5, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Safe R | September 4, 2025 |
| Silver Bulletin[67] | Solid R | August 25, 2026 |
Notes
- Endorsement received after the first round of primary voting took place.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Conservative Agenda for America
- Poll sponsored by KELO-TV and Nexstar Media
- Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota
- Poll sponsored by Rhoden's campaign
- Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch