2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018.[1]
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 59.17% | ||||||||||||||||
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Warren: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Diehl: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, state Representative Geoff Diehl.[2]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Elizabeth Warren, incumbent U.S. senator[3][4]
Results
Warren—≥90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 590,835 | 98.08% | |
| Write-in | 11,558 | 1.92% | ||
| Total votes | 602,393 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Geoff Diehl, state representative[6]
Eliminated in primary
- John Kingston, attorney and founder and president of Better for America[7]
- Beth Lindstrom, former undersecretary of the Massachusetts Office of Consumer Affairs and Business Regulation[8]
Eliminated at convention
Declined
- Gabriel Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013[11]
- Rick Green, businessman (running for House of Representatives) [12][13]
- Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball pitcher[14]
- Bill Weld, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2016 (endorsed Beth Lindstrom)[15]
- Daniel Winslow, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2013[16]
Endorsements
Beth Lindstrom
Governors
- William F. Weld, former governor of Massachusetts, 1991-1997[15]
State legislators
- Jay Barrows, state representative[17]
- Kimberly Ferguson, state representative[18]
- Paul Frost, state representative[19]
- Sheila Harrington, state representative[20]
- Bradford Hill, state representative[21]
- Steven Howitt, state representative[22]
- James Kelcourse, state representative[23]
- David Muradian, state representative[24]
- Elizabeth Poirier, state representative[25]
- Richard J. Ross, state senator[26]
- David Vieira, state representative[27]
- Donald Wong, state representative[28]
Local officials
Organizations
- Maggie's List[31]
- New England Police Benevolent Association[32]
- RightNOW Women PAC[33]
- Value in Electing Women (VIEW) PAC[34]
Newspapers
John Kingston
State legislators
- Donnie Berthiaume, state representative[37]
- Will Crocker, state representative[38]
- Vinny deMacedo, state senator[37]
- Ryan Fattman, state senator[37]
- Don Humason, state senator[37]
- Joseph D. McKenna, state representative[37]
Local officials
- Lew Evangelidis, Worcester County sheriff[37]
- Stephanie K. Fattman, Worcester County register of probate[37]
- Jim Kane, member of the Shrewsbury Board of Selectmen[39]
- Eddie Tedesco, Woburn city councilor[40]
Individuals
- Jim Rappaport, former chairman of the Massachusetts GOP[41]
Polling
Results
Overall
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Geoff Diehl | 144,043 | 55.15% | |
| Republican | John Kingston | 69,636 | 26.66% | |
| Republican | Beth Lindstrom | 46,693 | 17.88% | |
| Write-in | 798 | 0.31% | ||
| Total votes | 261,170 | 100.00% | ||
By county
Diehl—70–80%
Diehl—60–70%
Diehl—50–60%
Diehl—40–50%
Kingston—40–50%
Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.
| County | Diehl % |
Diehl votes |
Kingston % |
Kingston votes |
Lindstrom % |
Lindstrom votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnstable | 57.0% | 10,761 | 24.2% | 4,573 | 18.6% | 3,513 |
| Berkshire | 47.9% | 1,221 | 37.8% | 965 | 13.8% | 352 |
| Bristol | 61.8% | 11,005 | 23.0% | 4,095 | 15.0% | 2,669 |
| Dukes | 55.2% | 347 | 25.9% | 163 | 18.9% | 119 |
| Essex | 53.1% | 17,716 | 28.3% | 9,428 | 18.3% | 6,104 |
| Franklin | 41.8% | 938 | 42.3% | 949 | 15.3% | 343 |
| Hampden | 50.5% | 7,491 | 34.0% | 5,048 | 15.0% | 2,225 |
| Hampshire | 45.7% | 1,967 | 36.7% | 1,579 | 16.9% | 725 |
| Middlesex | 52.5% | 29,084 | 26.8% | 14,852 | 20.3% | 11,218 |
| Nantucket | 50.1% | 168 | 29.6% | 99 | 20.3% | 68 |
| Norfolk | 58.9% | 18,749 | 22.0% | 7,009 | 18.8% | 5,992 |
| Plymouth | 70.1% | 23,242 | 19.8% | 6,549 | 10.0% | 3,316 |
| Suffolk | 53.5% | 4,792 | 27.6% | 2,471 | 18.2% | 1,628 |
| Worcester | 44.8% | 16,562 | 32.1% | 11,856 | 22.8% | 8,421 |
| Total | 55.2% | 144,043 | 26.7% | 69,636 | 17.9% | 46,693 |
Libertarian primary
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Shiva Ayyadurai, entrepreneur[44] and conspiracy theorist[45]
- John Devine[46]
- Allen Waters[47]
Declined
- Gabriel Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013[48]
General election
Endorsements
Elizabeth Warren (D)
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[51]
- Democracy for America[52]
- EMILY's List[53]
- End Citizens United[54]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [55]
- J Street[56]
- League of Conservation Voters[57]
- LegitAction[58]
- MoveOn.org[59]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[60]
- Population Connection[61]
- Sierra Club[62]
- United Automobile Workers[63]
Geoff Diehl (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States[64]
- Sean Spicer, former White House Press Secretary[65]
Governors
State legislators
- Nick Boldyga, state representative[68]
- Forrester Clark, former state representative[69]
- Leah Cole, former state representative[70]
- Robert Correia, former state representative (Democrat)[71]
- David DeCoste, state representative[72]
- Peter Durant, state representative[73]
- Marc Lombardo, state representative[74]
- Jim Lyons, state representative[75]
- Lenny Mirra, state representative[76]
- Shaunna O'Connell, state representative[77]
Local officials
- Caroline Colarusso, Stoneham selectwoman[78]
- John Coutinho, Hopkinton selectman[79]
- Jim Cummings, Barnstable County sheriff[80]
- Lewis Evangelidis, Worcester County sheriff[81]
- Bob Hedlund, Weymouth mayor[82]
- Tom Hodgson, Bristol County sheriff[83]
- Michael Marchese, Everett city councilor at-large[84]
- John McCaul, Taunton city councilor[85]
- Joe McDonald, Plymouth County sheriff[86]
- Monica Medeiros, Melrose alderman[87]
- Ken Mitchel, Hanson Board of Selectman chair[88]
- Jeff Postell, Taunton city councilor[85]
- Claire Wright, Hopkinton selectwoman[79]
Individuals
- Herman Cain, former presidential candidate[89]
- Howie Carr, radio talk host[90]
- David Constantine, former governor's councilor[91]
- Larry Ellison, president of the Massachusetts Association of Minority Law Enforcement Officers[92]
- Steve Grogan, retired New England Patriots player[93]
- Jeff Kuhner, hadio host
- Matt Light, retired New England Patriots player
- Joe Malone, former state treasurer[94]
- Dave Marciano, boat captain on Wicked Tuna[95]
- Frank McNamara, former U.S. attorney[96]
- Stephen Moore, writer and economist[97]
- Fred Smerlas, retired New England Patriots player[98]
Organizations
- Association of County Employees (the Union of Plymouth County Corrections Officers)[99]
- The Association of Marshfield Police[100]
- Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association[101][102]
- Everett Police Patrolman's Local 94[103]
- Everett Police Superior Officers Local 95[103]
- ICE Council Local 207[104]
- Massachusetts Police Association[105]
- Massachusetts Republican Party (MassGOP), Massachusetts branch of the United States Republican Party[106]
- New Bedford Police Union[100]
- New England Police Benevolent Association[107]
- Norfolk Sheriff's Office County Correctional Officers Association[93]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[108][109]
- Worcester's NEPBA Local 911[110]
- Youth Conservatives of Massachusetts[111]
Newspapers
Shiva Ayyadurai (I)
Individuals
- Ben Garrison, political cartoonist and artist[114]
- Curt Schilling, former MLB pitcher[115]
- Owen Shroyer, political activist and commentator, host on InfoWars[116]
Newspapers
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 19, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 21, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[118] | Safe D | September 28, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[119] | Safe D | September 29, 2017 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[120] | Safe D | September 27, 2017 |
| Fox News[121] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[122] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[123] | Safe D | May 26, 2018 |
^Highest rating they assert
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Geoff Diehl (R) |
Shiva Ayyadurai (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC[124] | October 25–28, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 32% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| Suffolk University[125] | October 24–28, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | 4% | – | 5% |
| Western New England University[126] | October 10–27, 2018 | 402 LV | ± 5.0% | 57% | 27% | 7% | – | 8% |
| 485 RV | ± 4.0% | 54% | 27% | 6% | – | 12% | ||
| UMass Lowell[127] | October 1–7, 2018 | 485 LV | ± 5.6% | 56% | 31% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| 791 RV | ± 4.4% | 56% | 28% | 9% | 4% | 1% | ||
| MassINC[128] | September 17–21, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 30% | 5% | 1% | 6% |
| Suffolk University[129] | September 13–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 24% | 6% | – | 16% |
| Suffolk University[130] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 33% | – | – | 11% |
| MassINC[131] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 19% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
| MassINC[132] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 13% |
| MassINC[133] | November 9–12, 2017 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 32% | – | 3% | 7% |
| MassINC[134] | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 60% | 29% | – | 1% | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
with Beth Lindstrom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Beth Lindstrom (R) |
Shiva Ayyadurai (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[130] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 31% | – | – | 13% |
| MassINC[131] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 15% |
| MassINC[132] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 19% | 9% | 1% | 14% |
| MassINC[133] | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 33% | – | 3% | 8% |
with John Kingston
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
John Kingston (R) |
Shiva Ayyadurai (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[130] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 30% | – | – | 15% |
| MassINC[131] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 19% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
| MassINC[132] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 12% |
| MassINC[133] | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 33% | – | 2% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Karyn Polito (R) |
Mitt Romney (R) |
Richard Tisei (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst[135] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 36% | – | – | 5% | 19% |
| 44% | – | 31% | – | 10% | 15% | ||||
| 39% | – | – | 32% | 3% | 26% |
with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican
with Curt Schilling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Curt Schilling (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[136] | October 24–26, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 24% | 2% | 16% |
| UMass Amherst[135] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 28% | 9% | 16% |
| MassINC[137] | September 7–10, 2016 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 29% | 3% | 15% |
with William Weld
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
William Weld (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst[135] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 16% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 1,633,371 | 60.34% | +6.60% | |
| Republican | Geoff Diehl | 979,210 | 36.17% | −10.02% | |
| Independent | Shiva Ayyadurai | 91,710 | 3.39% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,799 | 0.10% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,707,090 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts.[139]
| District | Warren | Diehl | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59% | 37% | Richard Neal |
| 2nd | 57% | 39% | Jim McGovern |
| 3rd | 57% | 39% | Niki Tsongas (115th Congress) |
| Lori Trahan (116th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 58% | 38% | Joe Kennedy III |
| 5th | 69% | 28% | Katherine Clark |
| 6th | 55% | 41% | Seth Moulton |
| 7th | 84% | 13% | Michael Capuano (115th Congress) |
| Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 58% | 39% | Stephen Lynch |
| 9th | 51% | 46% | Bill Keating |